Blockchain Papers

Botirjon Rakhimov

No abstract is available for this record.

Murray A. Rudd

No abstract is available for this record.

Michala Moravcova, Peter Albrecht, Šimon Hvizd

No abstract is available for this record.

David Krause

No abstract is available for this record.

Libertad Bolivia Jazmin Martinez-Sangueza

En menos de un año, Bolivia ha pasado de prohibir el uso de criptomonedas a incorporar su uso de manera frecuente. Esta investigación examina la dinámica de los retornos y el riesgo asociado al Bitcoin, la criptomoneda de mayor valor en el ecosistema cripto, mediante modelos diseñados para activos de alta volatilidad. El análisis se basa en una serie temporal de datos diarios recopilados durante doce años, con énfasis en la medición de retornos negativos. Los resultados muestran que la media de los retornos es positiva y estadísticamente significativa, aunque su capacidad explicativa sobre la variabilidad total es limitada, lo cual es consistente con el comportamiento típico de series financieras de alta frecuencia. En cuanto a la volatilidad, se confirma la presencia de heterocedasticidad condicional, con efectos ARCH y GARCH altamente significativos. La persistencia de la volatilidad, evidenciada por un coeficiente GARCH cercano a uno, indica que los episodios de alta o baja volatilidad tienden a mantenerse en el tiempo. Estos hallazgos destacan la relevancia de modelar adecuadamente la varianza condicional en el análisis de activos financieros como el Bitcoin. Adicionalmente, se identificó la necesidad de ajustar la escala de los datos, recomendándose una rescalación previa para mejorar la precisión en futuras estimaciones.

Helen Fielder

No abstract is available for this record.

Cayetana Santaolalla

No abstract is available for this record.

Niranjan Sapkota

No abstract is available for this record.

Klaus Jaffé

No abstract is available for this record.

David Krause

No abstract is available for this record.

David Krause

No abstract is available for this record.

CustodyStress

Bitcoin custody systems are constructed under conditions of full knowledge and activated under conditions of partial knowledge. The person who designs a custody arrangement understands its components, dependencies, and intended operation. The person who later encounters that system—often an executor, trustee, or heir—must interpret and operate it without access to the designer's contextual understanding. This paper defines a descriptive framework for examining Bitcoin custody systems under stress conditions at a point in time, producing reference records for later interpretation. The framework treats examination as observation rather than evaluation: it records what exists, what dependencies connect components, and how the system behaves under modeled stress scenarios. It explicitly excludes advice, recommendations, certification, and adequacy assessment. The framework introduces four modeled outcome states—survives, constrained, blocked, and indeterminate—that describe observed system behavior without normative judgment. It defines stress conditions including owner absence, cognitive unreliability, device loss, institutional delay, and coordination failure. It specifies what reference artifacts examination produces: system snapshots, scenario-bound observations, dependency maps, and assumption registries. The paper addresses how professionals—attorneys, fiduciaries, advisors—can engage with examination records without overstepping interpretive boundaries. It distinguishes what records can establish (what was described, what was modeled, what assumptions applied) from what records cannot establish (adequacy, correctness, future outcomes). The framework is offered as a reference for professional contexts where Bitcoin custody must be understood by parties other than its original designer.

Murray A. Rudd

No abstract is available for this record.

David Krause

No abstract is available for this record.

İbrahim Güran, Mustafa Kocaizmirli

No abstract is available for this record.

Francisco José De Jesus Pereira

This thesis investigates whether the integration of digital assets, specifically Bitcoin and <br/>Ethereum, into a traditional multi-asset institutional portfolio can produce superior out-of<br/>sample risk-adjusted performance relative to the conventional 60/40 equity-bond benchmark. <br/>Using a Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO) framework enhanced by Ledoit-Wolf <br/>covariance shrinkage, the study evaluates seven distinct portfolio configurations across an <br/>empirical window spanning January 2016 to May 2026, covering multiple market regimes <br/>including the 2020 COVID-19 liquidity shock, the 2022 inflationary spike, and the 2024 <br/>institutional crypto adoption phase. <br/>The empirical design employs a dual-mode out-of-sample validation strategy: a fixed-weight <br/>stability test and a rolling realism test with systematic rebalancing. Results suggest that <br/>portfolios enriched with Bitcoin tended to achieve superior Sharpe and Sortino ratios relative <br/>to the baseline within this sample period and asset universe. The Master Portfolio (Case 7), <br/>combining equities, bonds, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, and Silver, attains a static Sharpe Ratio <br/>of 1.62, a static Sortino Ratio of 3.23 and a Maximum Drawdown of only −6.40%. These <br/>findings are consistent with the primary hypothesis (H₁) that, within this empirical setting, <br/>Bitcoin can improve out-of-sample risk-adjusted performance, while also providing evidence <br/>consistent with the secondary hypothesis (H₂) that Bitcoin acts primarily as a portfolio <br/>diversifier rather than a consistent safe haven. All results should be interpreted as conditional <br/>on the sample period, the chosen asset universe, and the rebalancing assumptions. All asset <br/>price data was sourced from Investing.com and the risk-free rate from the FRED 3-Month <br/>Treasury Bill series (TB3MS).

Georgios Tsoumas, Pi Lanningham

No abstract is available for this record.

Iida Hallikainen

Tutkimuksen taustalla oli kryptovaluuttojen kasvava merkitys rahoitusmarkkinoilla sekä spot-Bitcoin ETF -rahastojen käyttöönotto Yhdysvalloissa vuonna 2024. Uudet sijoitustuotteet ovat lisänneet yksityissijoittajien mahdollisuuksia saada altistusta Bitcoiniin, mutta samalla ne ovat tuoneet mukanaan uusia riskejä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tunnistaa spot-Bitcoin ETF -rahastoihin liittyvät keskeiset riskit sekä tarkastella riskienhallinnan keinoja yksityissijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimus toteutettiin integroivana kirjallisuuskatsauksena. Aineisto koottiin Google Scholar- ja ScienceDirect-tietokannoista, ja se rajattiin pääosin vuosien 2024–2025 julkaisuihin. Mukaan valittiin tutkimuksia, jotka käsittelivät spot-Bitcoin ETF- ja ETP-tuotteiden riskejä ja riskimekanismeja. Aineisto analysoitiin vertailemalla tutkimusten keskeisiä havaintoja ja ryhmittelemällä ne laajem-miksi riskiluokiksi. Tulosten perusteella spot-Bitcoin ETF -rahastoihin liittyvät riskit voidaan jäsentää useaan pääluokkaan. Keskeisimpiä olivat volatiliteettiriski, likviditeetti- ja hinnoitteluriski, seuranta- ja rakenneriski, säilytys- ja operatiiviset riskit, sääntely- ja markkinarakenteen riskit sekä käyttäytymisriskit. Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että ETF-rakenne ei poista Bitcoin-markkinoihin liittyvää voimakasta hinnanvaihtelua, ja että tuotteisiin liittyy myös rakenteellisia ja markkinamekanismeihin liittyviä epävarmuustekijöitä. Tulosten pohjalta muodostettiin yksityissijoittajalle suunnattu riskikehikko, joka kokoaa keskeiset riskit ja auttaa niiden jäsentämisessä. Johtopäätöksenä todettiin, että spot-Bitcoin ETF -rahastot tarjoavat yksityissijoittajalle helpomman ja säännellymmän tavan sijoittaa Bitcoiniin, mutta ne eivät poista sijoittamiseen liittyviä keskeisiä riskejä. Riskienhallinta edellyttää sijoittajalta tuotteen rakenteen ymmärtämistä, kriittistä tiedon arviointia sekä oman riskinsietokyvyn huomioimista. Lisäksi havaittiin, että osa riskeistä liittyy markkinarakenteeseen ja sääntelyyn, eikä niitä voida täysin hallita yksittäisen sijoittajan toimesta.

David Krause

No abstract is available for this record.

Fazal Danish

This OSF project hosts the pre‑registered live forecast for Bitcoin, published as part of Chapter 14 of the book The Luxury Collapse Threshold: How to Predict When Status Symbols Lose Their Power. The forecast was registered before the outcome was known. It includes: a full Luxury Risk Index (LRI) assessment of Bitcoin; an Early Warning Dashboard signal analysis; a predicted trajectory for 2026–2031; explicit confirmation and falsification criteria. This registration is intended to be permanently archived and publicly citable. Readers of the book are invited to verify the forecast and track its accuracy over time.

Matěj Široký

Tato práce se zabývá problematikou šíření transakcí v bitcoinové peer-to-peer síti, jejich monitorováním a měřením doby potřebné na jejich propagaci pro různé kombinace parametrů bitcoinových uzlů a sítě. Cílem této bakalářské práce je pochopit principy a mechanismy používané v bitcoinovém protokolu pro šíření transakcí v síti. Na základě získaných informací je navržen a implementován simulační model, který umožňuje sběr statistických dat o procesu šíření transakcí mezi uzly. Součástí práce je také vytvořený analyzační skript, schopný identifikace uzlů, kterými byly dané transakce vytvořeny.

Jolene Narula

No abstract is available for this record.

Ubaydullo Khattobov, Radjabova Sarvinoz Alisherovna, Nabixanova Nigora Shuxratbekovna, Olimjon Xamrayev Yaxshiboyevich · 5 authors

This study focuses on cryptocurrencies. At the beginning it explains what cryptocurrency is, its main features and main areas of its significance for the economy. In this section it deals with the possibility of cryptocurrency one day replacing traditional money, trading opportunities cryptocurrencies offer, possibility to finance a business with digital coins and its availability to people without the access to banking services. A brief overview of cryptocurrency history and a definition of the technology of blockchain are also provided. The practical part of the thesis is analysing cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. Firstly, these are described in terms of their origin, emission, circulation, price development and process of mining. Secondly, the impact of selected factors on the price fluctuation of selected cryptocurrencies is evaluated using statistical methods and econometric models. The analysis showed the cryptocurrency prices are more dependent on the internal factors such as the transaction volume, transaction fee, total supply, demand and hashrate, than on the external factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices and the price of gold.

Subramanya V. Odeyar, P. K. Lolakshi, L. Swetha, K. M. Thejaswini · 6 authors

Abstract The Bitcoin has recently garnered significant media and public attention due to its dramatic price increases and declines. As a result, many researchers have examined the various factors influencing Bitcoin’s price and the patterns behind its fluctuations, often using machine learning techniques. This study explores several machine learning algorithms for Bitcoin price prediction, including logistic regression and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. While LSTM-based models have shown superior performance in predicting Bitcoin prices (regression), this research provides a detailed investigation into Bitcoin’s evolution and a comprehensive review of the machine learning methods used for price prediction. Additionally, the study includes a Bitcoin price prediction model, which is developed using specific algorithms to forecast Bitcoin’s price, along with insights into the factors affecting its price movements. The proposed LSTM model has achieved 98% accuracy.