The Luxury Collapse Threshold — Live Forecast Registration: Bitcoin

Abstract

This OSF project hosts the pre‑registered live forecast for Bitcoin, published as part of Chapter 14 of the book The Luxury Collapse Threshold: How to Predict When Status Symbols Lose Their Power. The forecast was registered before the outcome was known. It includes: a full Luxury Risk Index (LRI) assessment of Bitcoin; an Early Warning Dashboard signal analysis; a predicted trajectory for 2026–2031; explicit confirmation and falsification criteria. This registration is intended to be permanently archived and publicly citable. Readers of the book are invited to verify the forecast and track its accuracy over time.