The CLARITY Act and Polymarket: A Controlled Econometric Analysis of Bitcoin Price Sensitivity

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the relationship between Polymarket prediction market odds for the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) and the price of Bitcoin, while controlling for broader equity market movements. Using daily data from January 1 to April 4, 2026 (94 observations), the analysis first confirms that Bitcoin log-returns and changes in Polymarket odds are stationary (Augmented Dickey-Fuller p