Hype vs Reality: A Data-Driven Analysis of Bitcoin Markets

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between hype-driven sentiment and Bitcoin price movements using a data-driven approach. Public interest is proxied through Google Trends data, while market performance is measured using historical Bitcoin returns. The study finds no significant contemporaneous relationship between sentiment and returns. However, a weak negative relationship is observed between current sentiment and future returns, suggesting that periods of heightened public attention may precede market corrections. These findings indicate that hype does not drive immediate price movements but may act as a contrarian indicator of short-term market dynamics.