Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationships between Bitcoin, oil prices, and the US dollar (USD) using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Utilizing daily data from 2018 to 2023, the analysis reveals that both Bitcoin and oil prices exert significant short-term impacts on the USD, though these effects diminish over the long term. Bitcoin, characterized by its high volatility and safe-haven attributes, serves as an alternative asset during periods of economic uncertainty, while oil prices influence the dollar through trade flows and inflationary pressures. The findings highlight the transient nature of these interactions, with Bitcoin and oil acting as short-term pressure factors on the USD. These insights are crucial for investors and policymakers in managing risks and optimizing strategies in a volatile financial environment. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical insights into the interconnectedness of cryptocurrencies, commodities, and currencies, offering valuable implications for financial decision-making. Keywords: Bitcoin, Oil Prices, US Dollar (USD), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, Cryptocurrencies, Exchange Rates, Safe-Haven Assets JEL Classification Number: C32, E44, G15, Q43
Abstract Introduction of cryptocurrency markets offered unique confidentiality and hedging benefits to investors, since they have been rapidly integrated into the financial system through forming substantial long- and short-term interdependencies with equity markets. Previous studies present contradicting and ambigious conclusions about the financial contagion between the equity and crypto markets, nonetheless they do not adequately pose light on the impacts of global events on the relationship between these markets. To address these concerns, this research examines the volatility spillovers between the equity and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) markets through simulating the dependencies with the aim of eliminating the bias and drawbacks of the traditional models by appling an optimized and original analytical framework composed of Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Time Varying Parameters Vector Auto Regression (TVP-VAR) models. Results identify substantial transmission from Bitcoin (BTC), Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to BNB, Euronext, Tether (TET), and Ethereum (ETH) and reflect the significant impact of the global important events on the financial spillovers. Model assessment results confirm the robust accuracy, fitness, reliability, and validity of the model, as well as the success of key parameter optimization.
Abstract This research presents a regime-aware hybrid forecasting framework for the Bitcoin market’s nonlinear, nonstationary and regime-switching behavior. The architecture integrates econometric models, neural forecasting and meta-learning, unified under a regime-detection mechanism using probabilistic inference. Central to the approach is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) trained on log returns, which infers latent market regimes, bull, bear and sideways, based on statistical characteristics rather than arbitrary thresholds. Each detected regime triggers a specialized forecasting model: ARIMAX for volatile bear markets, SARIMAX for cyclical sideways periods and NeuralProphet for nonlinear bullish dynamics. These models leverage historical returns (Jan. 2012-Jun. 2025) and external signals, including technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands) and volatility metrics. A meta-learning layer, implemented via XGBoost, dynamically selects the optimal model at each time step based on the regime. This enables real-time adaptation to evolving market conditions. Predictions are made on log returns and translated into price forecasts through exponentiation. The framework’s performance is evaluated using R 2 , Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The regime-aware model outperforms the no-regime model significantly across all metrics, especially in error reduction (MAE cut by ~ 56%) and higher explanatory power (R² increased from 0.82 to 0.91). Ablation results confirm the structural validity of the proposed framework, with the regime–model assignment (ARIMAX for bear, SARIMAX for sideways, NeuralProphet for bull) achieving the lowest forecasting error (MAE = 736, R 2 = 0.93) at the yearly level and outperforming alternative configurations. The inferred regimes exhibit economically meaningful persistence (average durations 14.8–22.4 days) and transition stability (diagonal probabilities 0.91–0.94). The meta-learning component shows coherent and interpretable behavior, with regime labels and recent model errors explaining nearly 70% of decision weight and regime-consistent model selection exceeding 80%. These forecasting gains translate into tangible economic benefits: in a six-month backtest, the proposed strategy delivers the highest return (19%), lowest drawdown (19%) and highest Sharpe ratio (1.01), outperforming all benchmarks.
Bu çalışma, Bitcoin fiyat tahmininde mevsimsel ARIMA (SARIMA) modelinin öngörü performansını, basit bir Naive kıyas modeliyle açık biçimde karşılaştırarak yeniden değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analiz, 12 Mart 2021 ile 12 Mart 2026 dönemini kapsayan günlük Bitcoin kapanış fiyatlarına dayanmaktadır. Seri logaritmik forma dönüştürülmüş ve durağanlık özellikleri fark alma işlemleriyle incelenmiştir. İlk aşamada mevsimsel olmayan ARIMA modelleri tahmin edilmiş, ardından mevsimsel dinamikleri içeren alternatif SARIMA modelleri değerlendirilmiştir. Model seçiminde parametre anlamlılığı ile Ljung-Box tanı istatistikleri dikkate alınmış ve mevsimsel hareketli ortalama bileşeninin kısmen anlamlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bu çerçevede SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[30] nihai mevsimsel aday model olarak belirlenmiştir. Tahmin performansı değerlendirmesi, yalnızca model uyumuna değil, örneklem dışı tahmin doğruluğuna odaklanmaktadır. Bu amaçla SARIMA modelinin performansı, ortalama mutlak hata (MAE) ve hata kareler ortalamasının karekökü (RMSE) ölçütleri kullanılarak Naive model ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Bulgular, örneklem dışı dönemde Naive modelin SARIMA modeline göre belirgin biçimde daha düşük tahmin hataları ürettiğini göstermektedir. Naive model için MAE 0.016011 ve RMSE 0.023173 iken, SARIMA modeli için bu değerler sırasıyla 0.23172 ve 0.28931’dir. Sonuçlar, Bitcoin gibi yüksek oynaklığa sahip finansal zaman serilerinde daha karmaşık mevsimsel yapıların her zaman daha üstün tahmin performansı sağlamadığını göstermektedir.
Wenhao Zhang, Zhenpeng Tang, Xiaowen Zhuang, Yi Cai · 5 authors
The cryptocurrency market has attracted significant attention from global investors, with Cardano (ADA) ranking among the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. However, predicting ADA returns remains challenging due to the complex, multi-scale dynamics influenced by Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical events, and high-frequency trading. This study proposes a “Sliding EMD–Multi Variables” framework for cryptocurrency return prediction, leveraging Empirical Mode Decomposition’s multi-scale fractal properties to capture nonlinear dynamics at different time scales. The sliding window decomposition method addresses data leakage issues while incorporating key economic and policy variables at the component level. The empirical results demonstrate that the Sliding EMD system significantly outperforms univariate and multivariate benchmarks. Compared to the univariate system, it improves MSE, RMSE, SMAPE, and DSTAT by 0.83%, 0.42%, 5.23%, and 0.43%, respectively, while enhancing investment metrics (maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Calmar ratio) by 0.19, 0.36, 0.95, and 0.15. Against the multivariate system, improvements reach 5.52%, 3.14%, 5.74%, and 17.62% in prediction accuracy, with investment performance gains of 0.47, 1.69, 4.27, and 0.31. Incorporating economic variables at the component level yields additional improvements of 0.94%, 0.47%, and 0.78% in MSE, RMSE, and MAE. These findings offer valuable insights for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization using fractal-based decomposition methods.
In this study, it is aimed to compare quantitative forecasting methods (traditional and learning based) in cryptocurrency market. For his purpose the daily prices between 16 September 2017 – 15 September 2022 of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Monero were analyzed with five different methods: ARIMA, exponential smoothing, artificial neural networks, RNN and LSTM.In the results it is indicated that exponential smoothing method is the most successful method at forecasting daily prices. The method has high performance in forecasting BTC, ETH and BNB daily prices. But at forecasting daily XMR prices, artificial neural networks method was the most successful one.The other point which was detected in this study is deep learning based methods made some unsuccessful forecasts. This is thought to be due to the fact that deep learning methods require more data. In future studies, using other quantitative methods (e.g. GRU, XGBoost, transformer models) on other cryptocurrencies will contribute to the literature.
Youssef Said, Al Mahdi Khaddar, Lahcen Hassine, Ahmed Eddaoui · 5 authors
Gas Gas consumption is a critical factor influencing the efficiency, scalability, and operational cost of Ethereum smart contracts.As contract complexity grows, identifying structurally gas-inefficient patterns becomes essential for improving development workflows and preventing costly deployment decisions.This study presents a graph-based deep learning framework for detecting gas-inefficiency risk patterns at the function level, leveraging multi-relational Graph Attention Networks (GAT) applied to function-level contract graphs.By modeling call dependencies, control-flow interactions, and storage-based data dependencies, the model learns structural indicators associated with excessive gas consumption while explicitly excluding direct gas metrics from the feature space to prevent data leakage.Experimental results under a strict contract-level data split protocol demonstrate strong classification performance and stable generalization across held-out contracts under the main split protocol, and consistent behavior under an additional time-forward temporal robustness check.Ablation analysis confirms the contribution of dependency-aware edges and semantic features to predictive accuracy, highlighting the importance of modeling cross-function interactions rather than isolated code metrics.Beyond predictive performance, the proposed approach provides interpretable attention weights that identify structurally influential functions, supporting predeployment analysis and developer-guided manual refactoring decisions.By framing gas inefficiency as a global structural property emerging from function interactions, this work contributes aa scalable and explainable methodology for structural gas-inefficiency detection in smart contracts.The proposed model performs structural detection only and does not automatically modify or optimize smart contract code.
In this research, the energy consumption models of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are analyzed using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models aided by the three stages of analysis involving Digiconomist data from 2022 to 2025: (1) exploratory data analysis for the nature of energy consumption, (2) model identification of influential variables using Random Forest models enhanced with SHAP values, and (3) an LSTM transfer learning method for predicting the energy consumption of Ethereum and Dogecoin using a model developed with Bitcoin data. The initial results show that while both assets vary largely when it comes to their normal usage level, Ethereum sees a sharp drop after the changeover from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake as a mechanism. The XAI analysis indicates that energy use is largely a consequence of past use, seasonality, and annual patterns. In addition to this, the models show a high level of accuracy for Dogecoin (R²: 88.4%, MAPE: 13.45%) and Ethereum (R²: 86.2%, MAPE: 11.47%) when it comes to predicting energy usage using the concepts of transfer learning.
Abstract Dynamics of financial contagion rapidly and drastically transformed by diversifying the investment preferences. Eventually increased diversification in the investment environment coupled with successive global events induced more complex and non-linear connections between the traditional and emerging markets. In this respect, this research explores the dynamic, asymmetric, and non-linear volatility transmissions among the Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Commodity, Energy, Technology, and Clean Energy Markets by incorporating Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) into the Time Domain of Time Varying Parameters Vector Auto Regression (TD-TVPVAR) model to eliminate the shortcomings of the former studies. Results compare the outputs of the Frequency Extension of TVPVAR (FC-TVPVAR) and LSTM-TVPVAR methods and verify the achievements of the new methodology. Consequently, new approach identify Bitcoin (BTC), gold, and oil markets as the primary sources of volatility, since clean energy market is determined to be the only significant destination of risk. Finally, prediction accuracy and the reliability of the incorporated model are validated by performance metrics and the achievements of the new approach are verified by bootstrapping test results.
This study examines short-term return forecasting for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin over 2020–2024, comparing autoregressive benchmarks with Kitchen Sink and VARX-type models using point and density accuracy measures supported by Diebold–Mariano and Model Confidence Set inference. The results demonstrate that the AR(1) benchmark and parsimonious specifications incorporating cryptocurrency-specific variables consistently outperform the more elaborate linear frameworks considered, while the inclusion of macro-financial predictors offers limited benefits. Findings highlight the robustness of autoregressive dynamics for short-term cryptocurrency forecasting and underscore the importance of parsimony over model complexity. These results are consistent with a market environment characterised by high structural uncertainty, sentiment-driven trading and rapidly shifting regimes, in which additional macro-financial information contributes little to forecastability beyond short-run return momentum and crypto-specific volatility.
This paper develops a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework for cryptocurrency portfolio management in which transaction costs are derived from the Riemannian geometry of the underlying volatility model rather than assumed constant. A Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agent is trained on a reward function derived from non-equilibrium thermodynamics: the free-energy Bellman equation, in which (i) transaction costs are the geodesic slippage S∗ on the Fisher information manifold of a maximum-entropy Markov-switching GARCH model, and (ii) regime-transition costs are the Wasserstein-2 distance Wt between the calm and turbulent return distributions. The agent is embedded in the WOW-E-W quadrilogy, a four-paper research programme that integrates statistical mechanics, fluid dynamics, Riemannian information geometry, and thermodynamic control into a unified cryptocurrency risk architecture. The PPO agent observes an 11-dimensional state vector ot that combines turbulent-regime probabilities \( \hat{\xi}_t(2) \) and parameter estimates \( \hat{\theta}_t \) from a maximum-entropy Markov-switching GARCH model, a viscosity-filtered velocity signal ht and gate states zt, rt from a GRU viscosity filter, and the Fisher curvature Gt, Ricci scalar κt, Betti numbers β0,t, β1,t,Wasserstein dissipation Wt, and topological alarm dI(t) from the Riemannian execution geometry layer. The framework establishes a thermodynamic Carnot bound on portfolio efficiency: η ≤ 1 − Hturb/Hcalm, where Hturb and Hcalm are the maximum-entropy values of the turbulent and calm regime distributions. Five hypotheses are tested across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash over January 2017 to March 2026: the geometric-cost PPO agent achieves higher Sharpe ratio than Buy-and-Hold, Greedy signal-following, and flat-fee PPO baselines (bootstrap p < 0.05 for four of five assets); portfolio turnover is reduced by 56 to 83 percent relative to signal-following; the thermodynamic friction point at which the agent prefers no-trade is asset-specific and ranges from 0.6 percent (Bitcoin) to 1.8 percent (Ethereum), ordered by turbulent half-life (Spearman ρ = 0.94, p = 0.017); a joint topological and geometric circuit breaker reduces Maximum Drawdown by 28 to 38 percent; and ablation confirms that every component of ot contributes a statistically significant performance gain (Diebold-Mariano p < 0.05 for at least four of five assets per component). The framework requires liquid cryptocurrency markets with validated parametric volatility models; transferability to other asset classes requires upstream recalibration and is an explicitly bounded limitation.
This study determines whether Bitcoin enhances portfolio diversification and serves as a valuable investment asset during the COVID-19 crisis. In particular, we evaluate the significance and magnitude of the risk price associated with Bitcoin’s returns based on the ICAPM and NARDL models. Three methodological approaches were employed. First, we use the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to assess the effect of Bitcoin on a portfolio comprising 25 Fama-French portfolios. Second, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) model explores Bitcoin’s impact on cross-sectional variation within the Fama-French portfolios, capturing potential asymmetric responses to price changes. Finally, we determine Bitcoin’s risk premium using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Fama-French three-factor model (FF3), and the Fama-French five-factor model (FF5). Bitcoin fails to provide significant diversification benefits for profitability factor (RMW), and exhibit insensitivity to value (HML) and investment (CMA). The NARDL model indicates a potential hedging role only during crypto market downturns. The factor models reveal that Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional assets, exhibiting low sensitivity to market risk and a negative relationship with the size premium, further supporting its potential for diversification within specific portfolio contexts. Our finding shows that Bitcoin can protect the 25 Fama-French portfolio when Bitcoin loses value.
Ceyda Yerdelen Kaygın, Musa Gün, Osman Nuri Akarsu, Haşim Bağcı · 5 authors
Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to extreme volatility, nonlinear dynamics, and frequent structural shifts in digital asset markets. While recent research increasingly applies deep learning architectures, the predictive advantage of highly complex models in noisy financial environments remains uncertain. This study evaluates the forecasting performance of shallow and deep learning approaches by comparing Support Vector Machines (SVM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models, along with hybrid configurations (GRU + SVM, LSTM + SVM, and GRU + LSTM). Using daily data spanning from 1 October 2020 to 23 September 2025 for five major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, and Ripple—the models are estimated within a consistent framework and assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics, including MAE, MAPE, MSE, and R2. The results indicate that greater algorithmic complexity does not necessarily improve forecasting accuracy. In several cases, the parsimonious SVM model outperforms deep neural network architectures, particularly for highly volatile assets, while hybrid models fail to provide systematic improvements and sometimes amplify prediction errors. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis further shows that immediate price-based variables dominate predictive power, whereas many lagged technical indicators contribute relatively limited explanatory value. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of algorithmic parsimony, suggesting that simpler machine learning models may deliver more robust forecasts in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets.
The high-frequency issuance and short-cycle speculation of meme tokens in decentralized finance (DeFi) have significantly amplified rug-pull risk. Existing approaches still struggle to provide stable early warning under scarce anomalies, incomplete labels, and limited interpretability. To address this issue, an end-to-end warning framework is proposed for BSC meme tokens, consisting of four stages: dataset construction and labeling, wash-trading pattern feature modeling, risk prediction, and error analysis. Methodologically, 12 token-level behavioral features are constructed based on three wash-trading patterns (Self, Matched, and Circular), unifying transaction-, address-, and flow-level signals into risk vectors. Supervised models are then employed to output warning scores and alert decisions. Under the current setting (7 tokens, 33,242 records), Random Forest outperforms Logistic Regression on core metrics, achieving AUC=0.9098, PR-AUC=0.9185, and F1=0.7429. Ablation results show that trade-level features are the primary performance driver (Delta PR-AUC=-0.1843 when removed), while address-level features provide stable complementary gain (Delta PR-AUC=-0.0573). The model also demonstrates actionable early-warning potential for a subset of samples, with a mean Lead Time (v1) of 3.8133 hours. The error profile (FP=1, FN=8) indicates that the current system is better positioned as a high-precision screener rather than a high-recall automatic alarm engine. The main contributions are threefold: an executable and reproducible rug-pull warning pipeline, empirical validation of multi-granularity wash-trading features under weak supervision, and deployment-oriented evidence through lead-time and error-bound analysis.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) systems currently rely on static parameters and reactive mechanisms that fail to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. These limitations contribute to systemic inefficiencies including yield instability, capital fragmentation, and the extraction of value through adversarial mechanisms such as maximal extractable value (MEV). This paper introduces The Aeon Protocol, a control-theoretic framework for adaptive financial infrastructure. The protocol models decentralized liquidity management as a closed-loop control system in which economic variables are continuously monitored, predicted, and regulated through feedback mechanisms derived from classical control theory. The Aeon architecture integrates four primary system layers: • KENDRA — predictive forecasting and regime detection from on-chain data streams• NOEMA — model predictive control for economic orchestration• AURA — ethical routing layer that captures and redistributes MEV through sealed-bid auctions• LEIA — liquidity management engine governing protocol-owned liquidity across decentralized markets At the core of the system is a PID-controlled adaptive yield mechanism designed to regulate total value locked (TVL) and stabilize protocol yield within bounded ranges. A complementary Burn-and-Mint Equilibrium (BME) mechanism dynamically adjusts token supply to maintain long-term economic balance. A central implication of the Aeon architecture is the emergence of a self-reinforcing liquidity ecosystem. By integrating predictive forecasting, control optimization, and ethical MEV capture into a closed-loop economic system, the protocol continuously identifies inefficiencies in decentralized markets and redirects the associated value back into the protocol’s liquidity layer. This process transforms otherwise extractive market dynamics into a productive feedback cycle, where captured value is redistributed through liquidity provisioning, treasury reserves, and reflection mechanisms. Empirical simulations and historical replay experiments demonstrate that this feedback architecture materially increases capital utilization across the system. In controlled Monte Carlo simulations spanning 10,000 market scenarios, the protocol achieved improvements of 50–180% in capital efficiency, while redirecting approximately 68% of extractable value to protocol participants rather than external arbitrage actors. These results suggest that adaptive control systems can convert structural market inefficiencies into a persistent source of liquidity and yield generation, enabling decentralized financial networks to operate as self-regulating economic environments rather than static rule-based infrastructures. Formal analysis establishes asymptotic stability conditions for the controller using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and Lyapunov stability methods, providing theoretical guarantees that the system converges toward equilibrium under defined parameter constraints. Collectively, the results demonstrate that control-theoretic economic architectures can provide a principled foundation for designing stable, transparent, and adaptive decentralized financial infrastructure. The Aeon Protocol represents a broader research direction toward autonomous economic systems, where financial networks operate as self-regulating feedback environments capable of maintaining equilibrium under dynamic market conditions.
The modern financial ecosystem is characterized by a "liquidity paradox": while digitization has accelerated transaction speeds, liquidity remains siloed across disparate asset classes such as equities, cryptocurrencies, and loyalty points. This fragmentation forces consumers to manually liquidate assets into fiat currency prior to transaction, creating friction, latency, and opportunity costs. This paper proposes the "Just-In-Time Liquidity Protocol" (JIT-LP), a novel neuro-symbolic architecture that decouples "value" from "currency" at the point of sale. By utilizing autonomous AI agents acting as fiduciaries for both payer and payee, the protocol negotiates the optimal composition of a payment in real-time, executing atomic swaps across ISO 20022 payment rails. I present the architectural design of the JIT-LP, detailing the interaction between edge-hosted Portfolio Agents and Treasury Agents. Furthermore, I introduce a Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) mechanism for verifying solvency without compromising user asset privacy. Theoretical modeling suggests that JIT-LP can reduce consumer overdraft incidents by utilizing idle asset liquidity while offering merchants dynamic inventory-based discounting. This paradigm shift from static message exchange to agentic negotiation redefines the payment network as a real-time value optimization layer.
This study provides an econometric investigation of Bitcoin’s return dynamics using daily data over 5.5 years from January 2020 to September 2025. This research deeply analyses the market behaviour of Bitcoin over other assets like Gold, Silver, Ethereum, Tether, Nifth50, BankNifty. In this analysis we used advanced time series and statistical models such as ARIMA, GARCH(1,1), Rolling GARCH, Half-Life estimation, and EGARCH models to evaluate conditional mean behavior, volatility clustering, persistence, asymmetric shock effects, and regime-dependent risk transmission. With the use of this models, rolling Garch reveals structural instability with persistence decline in later periods. EGARCH results asymmetric shock effects, where negative shocks increases volatility more than positive shocks. Forecasting models suggests that volatility will eventually return to its long term average, but risk is still expected to remain high for some time before normalizing. The analysis reveals strong conditional heteroskedasticity and near-integrated volatility persistence during crisis periods specific around the COVID-19 market collapse (2020), the FTX bankruptcy shock (2022), the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the 2025 Bybit exchange hack. Using various data visualizations, the analysis reveals high risky nature of Bitcoin trade with high returns compared to other assets. Deep learning model LSTM reveals the nature that closing price of next day is unpredictable as obvious in case of such high volatile nature of Bitcoin. These findings underline the importance and nature of trading in Bitcoin for individuals who are thinking to invest.
The housing market is of great significance to the development and advancement of cities, but customary forms of property valuation are frequently biased, time-consuming, and not always effective. This paper focuses on the city of Irbid in Jordan, aiming to collect all the information on apartments and houses, predict the prices of properties, and clarify the key factors influencing the prices. Following the comprehensive cleaning process of the data and exploratory analysis, three ensemble machine learning models were trained and optimized to achieve accurate price predictions. The performance of all three models demonstrated excellent and consistent predictions, highlighting the efficiency of ensemble methods in predicting property prices. SHAP analysis indicated that the size of the house, the number of bedrooms, the number of lounges as well as the location are the most significant factors influencing the prices in Irbid. This reflects the functioning of the local market.
Aleksandar Šević, Željko Šević, Athanasios Fassas, Panayiotis Tzeremes
There is a strong impetus to make cryptocurrencies more environmentally friendly, and in our study it is has been analyzed whether commodity price shocks have varying impacts on clean and dirty cryptocurrency interconnectedness before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the decomposed and partial connectedness measure we evaluate the connectedness of oil price shocks, demand, supply and risk, as well as five clean and five dirty cryptocurrencies from October 2017 until April 2024. The spikes in demand and disruptions in oil supply lead to price increases. Oil shocks have the largest impact on sampled crypto products during the COVID-19 period, as opposed to pre- and post-pandemic years, and they demonstrate a stronger influence on selected cryptocurrencies than internal crypto-to-crypto dynamics. During the crisis, the difference between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies becomes less relevant when compared to no-crisis periods. We also find that clean cryptocurrencies are net recipients of shocks, while dirty counterparts, dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum, are net transmitters, especially during the recovery phase. Our findings are relevant for supporting the transition to clean cryptocurrencies and contribute to a better understanding of dynamic interconnectedness. • Examines the decomposed and partial connectedness • Uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) models • Highlights the heterogeneity in cryptos’ responses to oil price fluctuations • Total Connectedness Index peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic • The distinctions between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies reemerged post-COVID
Yaser Sadati-Keneti, Mohammad Vahid Sebt, Reza R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Orod Ahmadi
The aim of this research is to employ improved machine learning techniques to determine the best Bitcoin trading positions in response to sudden price changes caused by global emergencies such as pandemics, conflicts, and economic disputes. Specifically, this study examines price fluctuations during the COVID pandemic as a case study to evaluate the performance of the algorithms investigated. We present a novel hybrid approach that merges Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) and Decision Tree (DT) classification to effectively eliminate noisy data and extract pertinent information for accurate position forecasting. The DBSCAN algorithm organizes the data to reveal important patterns, while the DT classifier sorts the trading signals. The performance of the proposed DBSCAN-DT model is rigorously compared with established alternatives, including the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Classifier (SVC), and traditional Decision Trees. Findings from the experiments show that the DBSCAN-DT hybrid consistently outperforms these benchmarks during the outbreak, epidemic, and pandemic phases of COVID, attaining greater accuracy in forecasting both trading positions and market trends. These findings emphasize the essential importance of incorporating pandemic-related disruptions into cryptocurrency price prediction models and showcase the flexibility of our method in addressing sudden market changes.
A Case Study Application of the Xenopoulos Genetic‑Historical Logic System (X‑GHLS) https://github.com/kxenopoulou/epameinondas_xenopoulos_epistemology-of-logic_genetic-historical-logic Author: Katerina XenopoulouORCID: 0009‑0004‑9057‑7432Version: 4.0 (Complete)Publication Date: February 25, 2026 Data and Experimental Setup Dataset: Our World in Data — COVID‑19 GreeceTime Span: January 5, 2020 – August 4, 2024Total Observations: 1,674 daily recordsOut‑of‑Sample Predictions: 1,667Overall Forecast Accuracy: 98.31%Evaluation Metrics: MAPE 1.69% | R² 0.999 | RMSE 120 cases ABSTRACT We present the first complete empirical validation of the Xenopoulos Genetic‑Historical Logic System (X‑GHLS) on real‑world epidemiological data. While the theoretical framework of X‑GHLS establishes 33 philosophical principles and the XEPTQLRI metric for quantifying dialectical tension, this study demonstrates its practical application in forecasting COVID‑19 dynamics in Greece over a 4.5‑year period (January 2020 – August 2024, N = 1,674 days). The system achieves exceptional predictive performance: MAPE: 1.69% (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) R²: 0.999 (Coefficient of Determination) RMSE: 120 cases (Root Mean Square Error) Overall Accuracy: 98.31% Total Predictions: 1,667 Phase analysis reveals that the pandemic was in crisis mode (τ₅ and above) for 1,212 days (72.7% of the total), explaining why conventional statistical models struggle with such highly nonlinear dynamics. The system successfully detects all major COVID‑19 waves in Greece and provides early warning signals through the XEPTQLRI index. Comparative analysis with state‑of‑the‑art models (2026) demonstrates that X‑GHLS outperforms: TimesFM (Google): 3.2% MAPE Chronos‑2: 3.5% MAPE TiRex: 3.8% MAPE Transformer architectures: 4.2% MAPE LSTM networks: 5.8% MAPE ARIMA: 8.5% MAPE The 33rd Principle (Advanced Dialectical Negation) proves crucial for qualitative jump detection, enabling the system to adapt to regime changes that cause other models to fail. The complete mathematical formalization of all 33 principles is provided, with full reproducibility through the open‑source implementation. Environmental and economic advantages are equally striking: zero training cost, 0.001 kWh per prediction (vs 200 kWh for foundation models), zero carbon footprint (vs 100+ tons CO₂), and full interpretability through the 10 dialectical phases (τ₀–τ₉). This work constitutes the first large‑scale empirical validation of a dialectical logic system on real‑world time series data, demonstrating that philosophical principles can be mathematically formalized into predictive models that outperform state‑of‑the‑art machine learning architectures. Keywords: X‑GHLS; dialectical logic; COVID‑19 forecasting; time series analysis; XEPTQLRI index; 33 principles; phase transition detection; qualitative jump; Our World in Data Data Source: Our World in Data — COVID‑19 Greece DatasetCode Availability: Upon request for academic collaborationCorresponding Author: Katerina Xenopoulou (katerinaxenopoulou@gmail.com) 📊 Summary Table (for Abstract) Metric Value Comparison MAPE 1.69% 3.2% (TimesFM) R² 0.999 0.99 (Chronos‑2) Accuracy 98.31% 96.8% (TimesFM) Days Analyzed 1,674 — Predictions 1,667 — Crisis Phases (τ₅+) 1,212 days 72.7% of total 📊 KEY RESULTS Metric Value MAPE 1.69% R² 0.999 RMSE 120 cases Accuracy 98.31% Predictions 1,667 Time span 2020–2024 (1,674 days) 📈 GRAPHICAL RESULTS 1: COVID-19 Cases in Greece (2020–2024)] 2: Dialectical Phases (τ₀–τ₉) with XEPTQLRI Coloring] 3: XEPTQLRI Index with Phase Thresholds] 4: Actual vs Predicted Cases] 🏆 COMPARISON WITH STATE-OF-THE-ART MODELS (2026) Model MAPE Training Cost Energy / Prediction CO₂ Emissions Interpretability XENOPOULOS 1.69% €0 0.001 kWh 0 kg Full (33 principles) TimesFM (Google) ~3.2% €200,000+ 200 kWh 100+ tons Black box Chronos-2 ~3.5% €50,000+ 50 kWh 25 tons Black box TiRex ~3.8% €15,000+ 15 kWh 7.5 tons Limited Transformer ~4.2% €100,000+ 100 kWh 50 tons Black box LSTM ~5.8% €5,000+ 5 kWh 2.5 tons Limited ARIMA ~8.5% €0 0.001 kWh 0 kg Statistical 🔬 DETAILED ANALYSIS BY PHASE Phase Days Mean XEPTQLRI Mean Tension Confidence Description τ₀ 64 0.40 0.064 0.85 Stability τ₁ 35 1.23 0.153 0.85 Stability τ₂ 28 1.71 0.213 0.75 Pattern repetition τ₃ 14 2.88 0.360 0.65 Growing instability τ₄ 14 4.00 0.499 0.55 System saturation τ₅ 147 5.15 0.644 0.40 QUALITATIVE JUMP τ₆ 154 6.02 0.752 0.30 Paradoxical state τ₇ 462 7.06 0.883 0.20 Transcendence τ₈ 749 7.83 0.978 0.20 Transcendence Key observation: The pandemic was in crisis mode (τ₅ and above) for 1,212 days (72.7% of the total), explaining why conventional models struggled to adapt. 🌍 ENVIRONMENTAL & ECONOMIC IMPACT Model Training Cost CO₂ Emissions Equivalent XENOPOULOS €0 0 kg 0 flights TimesFM €200,000+ 100+ tons 200 flights Athens–London Chronos-2 €50,000+ 25 tons 50 flights LSTM €5,000+ 2.5 tons 5 flights 🎯 WHY THIS IS REVOLUTIONARY # Advantage XENOPOULOS Other Models 1 Accuracy 98.31% 91.5% – 96.8% 2 Training Cost €0 €5,000 – €200,000+ 3 Energy per Prediction 0.001 kWh 5 – 200 kWh 4 CO₂ Footprint 0 kg 2.5 – 100+ tons 5 Interpretability Full (33 principles) Black box / Limited 6 Phase Detection Yes (τ₀–τ₉) No 📖 THE 33 PRINCIPLES A. Dialectical Principles (1–4, 12, 16, 18, 26) # Principle 1 Synthesis of Formal and Dialectical Logic 2 Dialectical Contradiction as Creative Force 3 Dialectic of Stasis and Motion 4 Integration of Otherness 12 Dialectical Perception of Infinity 16 Logic of Process 18 Law of State Succession 26 The Concept of Aufhebung B. Theory of Knowledge (5–7, 13, 17, 19, 27, 28) # Principle 5 Historical-Genetic Approach 6 Dialectic of Theory and Practice 7 Transitional Nature of Truth 13 Genetic Logic 17 Restructuring of Dialectical Thought 19 Repetition and Historical Dialectic 27 Triple Coincidence (Sπ, Sα, f(x)) 28 Suszko Triad (L, B, Θ) C. Mathematical Formalization (21–25, 32) # Principle 21 The N[Fi(Gj)] Operator 22 INRC Group (Piaget) 23 XEPTQLRI Index 24 Ten Dialectical Stages (τ₀–τ₉) 25 Dubarle Operators (△, ▼, ▽, ▲) 32 Rogowski Np Operator D. Innovative Applications (8–11, 14–15, 20, 29–31) # Principle 8 Interdisciplinary Application of Dialectics 9 Synthesis of Unity and Differentiation 10 Transcendence of Static Logic 11 Dynamic Perception of Reality 14 Negation as Creative Force 15 Quantitative and Qualitative Change 20 Dual Nature of the "Now-Present" 29 Illusion of Stability 30 Application to Artificial Intelligence 31 Critical Transition Prediction E. The 33rd Principle – Advanced Dialectical Negation f(A) = -A · P · H · (1 + M) + ε Parameter Description A Dialectical tension (from thesis–antithesis conflict) P Predictive capacity of current phase H Historical memory (weight of previous predictions) M Transitional factor (proportional to XEPTQLRI) ε Stochastic noise (uncertainty modeling) 📊 THE XEPTQLRI INDEX AND PHASES τ₀–τ₉ Phase XEPTQLRI Range Description τ₀ < 0.8 Stability τ₁ 0.8 – 1.5 First deviation τ₂ 1.5 – 2.5 Pattern repetition τ₃ 2.5 – 3.5 Incompatibility τ₄ 3.5 – 4.5 System saturation τ₅ 4.5 – 5.5 Qualitative jump τ₆ 5.5 – 6.5 Paradox τ₇ 6.5 – 7.5 Transcendence τ₈ 7.5 – 8.5 Permanent dialectics τ₉ > 8.5 Absolute synthesis 🧠 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS Feature Description Early phase change detection The system "knows" when it enters crisis mode (τ₅ and above) and adapts predictions accordingly Paradox management In phases τ₆–τ₈, where behavior becomes nonlinear, confidence decreases and stochastic factors increase Historical memory Parameter H in the 33rd Principle incorporates knowledge from previous predictions, creating dialectical learning 🔮 FUTURE DIRECTIONS Limitation Description Future Extension Phase boundaries Thresholds between phases are empirical Automatic phase boundary optimization Stochasticity Random noise introduces minor variability Advanced uncertainty modeling Generalization Tested mainly on COVID-19 data Multi-domain testing (finance, climate) 📜 SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION # Contribution 1 Complete mathematical formalization of 33 philosophical principles into a functional predictive system 2 Introduction of the XEPTQLRI index as a measurable quantity of dialectical tension 3 Ten-phase typology (τ₀–τ₉) for describing system dynamics 4 The 33rd Principle as a qualitative jump operator 5 Proof that a philosophically grounded system can outperform statistical models with millions of parameters 💡 CONCLUSION Aspect XENOPOULOS Advantage Performance 98.31% accuracy — superior to all compared models Cost Zero training cost, runs on any computer Energy 0.001 kWh per prediction (vs 200 kWh) Environment Zero carbon footprint (vs 100+ tons CO₂) Transparency Full interpretability through 33 principles Philosophical foundation Dialectics meets computation — a paradigm shift 📥 CODE AVAILABILITY The system's source code is available upon request for academic collaboration.Please contact the author for further information. 🙏 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work is dedicated to the memory of my father, Epameinondas Xenopoulos, whose work Epistemology of Logic (1998, 2nd ed. 2024) provided the foundation for this entire endeavor. I warmly thank my family for their support, and my granddaughter who, at 9 years old, reminded me daily that dialectics is not theory but a way of life. 📚 REFERENCES # Reference 1 Xenopoulos, E. (2024). Epistemology of Logic (2nd ed.), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359717578_Epistemology_of_Logic_Logic-Dialectic_or_Theory_of_Knowledge 2 Hegel, G.W.F. (1812). Science of Logic 3 Piaget, J.
Hyperparameter optimization for cryptocurrency trading strategies encounters distinct challenges owing to continuous operation, volatility rates 3–4 times higher than equity indices, and price dynamics influenced by market sentiment. Bayesian optimization (Tree-Structured Parzen Estimator, TPE) and evolutionary algorithms (Differential Evolution, DE) are great for machine learning, but there are not many systematic comparisons for trading cryptocurrencies. This research evaluates Random Sampling, TPE, and DE through 36 factorial experiments, comprising 3 trading strategies (3, 4, and 5 hyperparameters) × 3 optimizers × 4 cryptocurrency pairs (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, INJ/USDT, SOL/USDT), resulting in 14,400 backtesting trials with walk-forward validation. TPE won 75% of strategy–asset pairs (9 of 12), reaching 90% of optimal performance within 13–17% of trial budgets. We find strategy-specific optimizer compatibility: mean-reversion strategies show DE underperformance independent of topology (−1% to −8%), whereas trend-following strategies show consistent DE competitiveness across assets (+13% to +37%). Most notably, for the same strategy, parameter space topology differs significantly between assets (trend following: 4.6% viable on BTC to 82% on ETH = 17.8×; mean reversion: 10.8% on ETH to 92% on SOL = 8.5×), indicating that topology results from strategy–asset interaction rather than intrinsic properties. Complete testing failures and widespread severe overfitting point to regime non-stationarity as a fundamental problem. Among the contributions are: (1) evidence shows that topological effects are dominated by optimizer–strategy compatibility (DE fails on mean-reversion strategies even in 92% viable spaces, but succeeds on trend-following strategies regardless of topology, spanning 13.6–82% viable spaces); (2) this is the first systematic Bayesian versus evolutionary comparison across 4 cryptocurrency assets; (3) parameter space topology emerges from strategy–asset interaction, varying up to 17.8-fold; and (4) single-period backtests inadequately identify parameter instability.
Hamid Najafi Bouyaghchi, Ameneh Farahani, Ismail A Mageed
The cryptocurrency market is volatile, which makes it very difficult to accurately predict. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is an approach to Predict Price Cryptocurrency (PPC) that uses price time series data. However, in this method, the prediction accuracy is dependent on the tuning of meta-parameters. Therefore, to tune these meta-parameters, an improved version of the optimization algorithms is needed that provides the task of selecting the optimal values of these parameters for price predictions. Therefore, in this study, the LSTM is combined with the classic version of the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, and the real data against the prediction results of the model presented in this study showed the appropriate accuracy of this model. Then, the classic version of the DE algorithm was modified to reduce its errors compared to previous algorithms. In this regard, coding was done in MATLAB version 2023b software, and the improved version was compared in terms of error rate with the Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and the new Bald Eagle Search (BES) algorithm, which showed an accuracy of 86.94% for the improved model in this study.
Abstract This paper investigates the time-varying dynamics of the Bitcoin price by examining its relationship with key global factors, including the VIX, the interest rate, the US dollar index, the oil price, and the gold price. The empirical analysis employs a state-space model, the Kalman filter method, and a TVP-VAR-SV. The findings from the state-space model indicate a significant negative association between the Bitcoin price and the VIX, while identifying a positive relationship with the gold price. Further analysis using instantaneous time-varying impulse response functions reveals that the negative response of Bitcoin to the VIX intensified significantly during the pandemic period. A similar negative impact was observed regarding the US dollar index and the oil price. In contrast, the interest rate exhibited a positive connection with the Bitcoin price. Notably, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, which was negative prior to the pandemic, became statistically insignificant as the crisis escalated. This underscores that Bitcoin’s hedging capabilities and safe haven characteristics are not intrinsic fundamental qualities, but rather conditional behaviors that evolve with shifting global economic landscapes. The evidence suggests that Bitcoin’s defensive properties are structural rather than fundamental, emerging primarily during specific volatility regimes. Additionally, the inverse relationship between the oil price and Bitcoin suggests that rising energy costs may dampen the cryptocurrency’s appeal due to its substantial energy consumption. These results offer significant implications for scholars, investors, and portfolio managers regarding the management of digital assets during periods of systemic instability.