Impact of Bitcoin and Oil Price Fluctuations on the US Dollar: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationships between Bitcoin, oil prices, and the US dollar (USD) using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Utilizing daily data from 2018 to 2023, the analysis reveals that both Bitcoin and oil prices exert significant short-term impacts on the USD, though these effects diminish over the long term. Bitcoin, characterized by its high volatility and safe-haven attributes, serves as an alternative asset during periods of economic uncertainty, while oil prices influence the dollar through trade flows and inflationary pressures. The findings highlight the transient nature of these interactions, with Bitcoin and oil acting as short-term pressure factors on the USD. These insights are crucial for investors and policymakers in managing risks and optimizing strategies in a volatile financial environment. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical insights into the interconnectedness of cryptocurrencies, commodities, and currencies, offering valuable implications for financial decision-making. Keywords: Bitcoin, Oil Prices, US Dollar (USD), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, Cryptocurrencies, Exchange Rates, Safe-Haven Assets JEL Classification Number: C32, E44, G15, Q43