Comparing Forecasting Powers Of Traditional Methods And Learning Based Methods In Cryptocurrency Market: An Application On Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin And Monero

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to compare quantitative forecasting methods (traditional and learning based) in cryptocurrency market. For his purpose the daily prices between 16 September 2017 – 15 September 2022 of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Monero were analyzed with five different methods: ARIMA, exponential smoothing, artificial neural networks, RNN and LSTM.In the results it is indicated that exponential smoothing method is the most successful method at forecasting daily prices. The method has high performance in forecasting BTC, ETH and BNB daily prices. But at forecasting daily XMR prices, artificial neural networks method was the most successful one.The other point which was detected in this study is deep learning based methods made some unsuccessful forecasts. This is thought to be due to the fact that deep learning methods require more data. In future studies, using other quantitative methods (e.g. GRU, XGBoost, transformer models) on other cryptocurrencies will contribute to the literature.