Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.
High-performance Byzantine Fault Tolerant (BFT) blockchains are designed to achieve high throughput and low latency, yet their observed block time distributions often reveal complex behaviors arising from networking, pipelining, and deployment heterogeneity. In this paper, we diagnose HotStuff-based high-performance BFT consensus by modeling block times through a quorum-based multicast framework that links each block interval to quorum formation latency. We capture multimodal block time distributions using mixture models, where each component represents a distinct network condition characterized by effective transfer rate of block information. The proposed model is fitted to the bulk of mainnet block time data, while tail decay is analyzed separately to assess asymptotic behavior. Applying this methodology to Hyperliquid and Aptos mainnets, we find that Hyperliquid is well explained by a unimodal distribution, consistent with a relatively homogeneous validator deployment. In contrast, Aptos exhibits persistent multimodal structure and a pronounced shift following a consensus upgrade, reflecting heterogeneous deployments and diverse communication paths. These results demonstrate that mixture modeling of block time provides a practical and informative diagnostic tool for analyzing and monitoring high-performance BFT consensus.
Yanzheng Jin, Pengyang Shao, Xiaohao Liu, Xi Ai · 6 authors
Financial trading relies on extracting reliable signals from heterogeneous market modalities such as price series, breaking news, and investor sentiment. Existing multimodal methods primarily combine heterogeneous modalities to exploit complementarity, treating each modality as equally valuable while overlooking whether different modalities provide mutually supportive evidence for the same trading signal. However, this task-conditioned and non-canceling support, termed multimodal corroboration, is particularly valuable, especially for financial trading. Because individual financial views are noisy and weakly informative, support that persists across heterogeneous views may provide a more stable task-relevant signal than evidence appearing in only one view. To exploit this property, we propose CoLAS (multimodal Corroboration of Latent Asset Signals), a framework that operationalizes multimodal corroboration as a trainable task-conditioned representation for trading prediction. The modality representations are organized into a per-instance matrix, where a softmax-based spectral objective strengthens its dominant shared component. Signed modality contributions then determine whether this component provides non-canceling support and construct the resulting corroborated signal. A coupled robustness-aware consistency objective further preserves the resulting corroborated signal when a modality is corrupted or missing. Extensive experiments on stock and cryptocurrency datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed CoLAS, yielding consistent improvements in both annualized return and Sharpe ratio over existing methods.
Sui's object-centric data model enables parallel transaction execution, but realised performance is fundamentally bounded by workload contention. Prior empirical analyses of Sui have relied on "read+write" (R+W) conflict graphs inherited from account-based blockchains. Because Sui's engine serialises only on mutable shared access, R+W graphs contain spurious edges, bounding contention from above. In this paper, we adopt a complementary "write-set-only" (W-only) model in which every edge represents a real write-serialisation event, providing a lower bound on contention. Together, the two models bracket Sui's true execution-dependency structure. Applying the W-only analysis to Sui mainnet data through 2025 yields three primary findings. First, removing read-only dependencies (notably the system clock) causes previously reported "hub-and-spoke" structures to collapse. The remaining contention topology is highly assortative and clique-dominated, with the W-only bound shaving roughly $30$--$40\%$ off the R+W estimate of Sui's optimal-parallelism headroom. Second, via union-find object grouping, we isolate DeepBook (Sui's native central limit order book). While it dominates contention by volume, its underlying logic does not impose disproportionate sequential bottlenecks. Finally, we quantify the economic cost of contention, showing that $10$--$50\%$ of the network's USD-denominated value flows through sequentially constrained execution paths, exposing it to potential ordering effects.
Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.
Arthur G. Bubolz, Abreu Quevedo, Giancarlo Lucca, Rafael A. Berri · 6 authors
The growing use of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset and investment tool has sparked strong interest in understanding its market behavior. This study presents a new approach to analyze Bitcoin market sentiment by combining on-chain and financial data with social media posts. Unlike models that aim to predict prices, this work focuses on explaining market sentiment using blockchain transactions, historical price data of Bitcoin, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications. The method merges sentiment trends with on-chain and financial metrics, normalized into a dataset for detailed market analysis. Multiple machine learning models were tested using cross-validation, with Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) emerging as the most reliable model for classifying sentiment, achieving an average F1-score of about 0.84. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a game theory-based method for model interpretability, was used to quantify the contribution of on-chain features to the model's predictions, improving transparency. The results indicate that this data combination yields meaningful predictive signals and insights, supporting data-driven cryptocurrency analysis and future improvements with deep learning.
Jakub Zwydak, Marcin Wątorek, Jarosław Kwapień, Stanisław Drożdż
Artificial transaction generation remains an important source of potential market manipulation on cryptocurrency exchanges, as it may distort reported liquidity and reduce market transparency. This study proposes a diagnostic framework for detecting unusual trading patterns based on complexity and statistical-structure measures derived from high-frequency trade-level data. The analysis considers log-returns, trading volume, and transaction counts, using tail distributions, autocorrelation functions, multifractal characteristics, approximate entropy, and detrended cross-correlations. The methodology is applied to BTC, ETH, and XRP traded on Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, and Kraken over the period from April 1 to June 30, 2025. The results reveal a pronounced anomaly on Bitget for BTC and ETH after mid-May 2025. The number of transactions increases sharply, but there is no proportional increase in traded volume or return fluctuations. This regime is characterised by numerous low-volume trades, weaker autocorrelations, reduced multifractal organisation, higher short-pattern irregularity, and weaker cross-correlations involving the transaction-count series. These features are consistent with a noise-like component in trading activity and may indicate artificially increased transaction counts, although they do not provide direct proof of wash trading. The findings show that complexity-based indicators can be useful for detecting exchange-specific trading anomalies that remain hidden in price-based measures.
Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXes) enable fast off-chain conversions between hundreds of coins. It is an open question which algorithmic trading patterns occur on these platforms. A major challenge to measuring CEXes is that their public trade data does not contain addresses or trader identifiers allowing linkage. We propose a novel methodology to infer one-way arbitrage (OWA) trading in anonymized spot trade data from CEXes. We identify 402 M likely OWA sequences in 5 years of trading on Binance (and almost 2 M during 9 years on Kraken), accounting for 0.94 % and 0.13 % of the total traded volume, respectively. While we estimate total profits of $31.2 M on Binance and $975 k on Kraken, profits from individual OWA sequences are less than $1 on average after accounting for trading fees. We also observe that OWA has become faster over time, while the profitability of individual sequences has decreased. Our findings highlight that pricing discrepancies regularly occur in CEXes, and raise questions for future work to identify the precise circumstances that enable profitable OWA.
Bitcoin (BTC) wealth distribution is often studied with macro indicators like wallet balances, prices, network activity, fees, and hashrate. This letter proposes a "Crypto-Microeconomic Observability Framework" to examine micro-level Bitcoin wealth disparities across five labeled agent classes: Service, Abuse, Malware, Individuals, and Benign. Using descriptive, inequality, and longitudinal concentration metrics, we show that Bitcoin wealth is highly concentrated across major classes, consistent with a persistent "Whale-Effect". Service entities hold the largest share of observed BTC (75.15%), while Abuse controls a disproportionately large share relative to its entity count (24.26% of BTC vs. 3.53% of entities). Individuals, Abuse, and Service show near-maximal within-class inequality (e.g., Gini = 0.9993 for Individuals), and time-series analysis indicates these patterns persist. Overall, Bitcoin wealth among labeled economic agents remains structurally uneven and concentrated in a small subset of entities.
Bitcoin research increasingly relies on on-chain indicators to study network activity, monetary issuance, transaction demand, miner incentives, coin-age behavior, and long-run monetary dynamics. However, many commonly used Bitcoin metrics are dispersed across commercial platforms, subject to heterogeneous definitions, or not fully reproducible from primary blockchain data. This manuscript introduces Open Bitcoin Metrics (OBM), a reproducible, full-node-derived dataset and reference guide for Bitcoin on-chain time series designed for economic and econometric research. The dataset provides documented daily series covering block production, block-space usage, transaction counts, supply, issuance, fees, miner revenue, mining difficulty, estimated hashrate, Bitcoin Days Destroyed, dormancy, liveliness, UTXO counts, spent output value, and related UTXO-age indicators. Metrics are reconstructed from a locally maintained Bitcoin Core full node, a persistent spent-output indexer, or deterministic transformations of previously generated OBM series. Each series is accompanied by open-source Python code, stable identifiers, explicit definitions, metadata, validation procedures, interpretive caveats, and comparisons with the closest publicly available metrics. The dataset is intended to support transparent empirical research, replication, teaching, and comparative analysis across monetary economics, financial economics, and blockchain studies.
Despite the promise of decentralization, measurement studies have identified a conspicuous lack of decentralization in blockchains. Centralization has been observed in almost all layers of the blockchain, in decentralized applications, and in decentralized autonomous organizations. In many cases, it is practically impossible to definitively determine the extent of centralization in the system. While multiple works have proposed methods to decrease centralization, by and large blockchains continue to be significantly centralized. In this paper, we develop a general framework for building verifiably decentralized blockchain systems. Our framework is motivated by the core observation that the richness and diversity of collaborative interactions between users -- rather than resource uniformity -- captures the essence and extent of decentralization in a blockchain system. Existing blockchains do not have any incentive mechanisms to encourage inter-coalition collaboration, which directly contributes to centralization. We propose a novel reward design that incentivizes users to collaborate with other users without forming isolated coalitions. Technically, our method uses a Sybil-resistant asymmetric Shapley value for reward attribution within a collaboration group, and the theory of expander graphs for measuring and enforcing decentralization. Our framework is general and can be adapted to alleviate centralization in any layer, application, or decentralized organization. It also has important implications beyond the topic of centralization. For example, we show that our solution can naturally address the blockchain scalability problem. We also identify a new class of decentralized collaborative applications that have hitherto been unexplored in blockchains.
Cryptocurrency price prediction is a significant challenge in quantitative investment. In recent years, time series models have made significant progress in financial forecasting tasks, especially in the stock market. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in cryptocurrency prediction. Specifically, time series models (e.g., LSTM, GRU, and Transformers) are effective at extracting temporal relationships in stock market data. However, in pure price-based cryptocurrency prediction, facing data with extreme volatility and wild swings, time series models have difficulty learning effective information. To validate our claim, we propose CryptoGAT, a lightweight Graph Attention Network that recasts cryptocurrency pure price prediction as a cross-asset graph problem rather than a temporal modeling task. Extensive experiments on real cryptocurrency benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed CryptoGAT outperforms various state-of-the-art forecasting methods with a notable margin. Moreover, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to explore the fundamental differences exposed by time series models in stock and cryptocurrency prediction: differences in predictability of the signal and cross-asset dependencies. This finding opens up new research directions for the cryptocurrency pure price prediction task and inspires further graph-based exploration in the field. The source code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CryptoGAT
This paper examines whether blockchain-registered AI agents demonstrate operational readiness beyond identity registration. Using a dataset of ERC-8004 agents on Ethereum, we construct an agent-level feature table covering identity status, metadata, service declarations, reputation feedback, transfers, and cross-chain registration. We develop an operational readiness framework based on observable evidence layers and complement it with network analysis of owner-agent, feedback-client, wallet-transfer, and combined evidence relationships. The results show that early ERC-8004 adoption is registration-heavy but operationally shallow. While the identity layer is visible at scale, metadata availability, service exposure, reputation formation, and cross-chain evidence remain limited. Ownership and feedback activity are also highly concentrated, suggesting that early participation is shaped by a small number of high-activity wallets and clients. The network analysis further shows that richer operational evidence clusters around a small subset of agents rather than being broadly distributed across the ecosystem. The findings suggest that ERC-8004 provides an important identity layer for decentralized AI agents, but the transition from agent identity to agent economy remains incomplete.
We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.
Real-world asset tokenization is often presented as a mechanism for improving the liquidity of traditionally illiquid assets. However, on-chain representation and secondary-market liquidity are distinct outcomes. This paper examines whether tokenized real-world assets exhibit meaningful observed liquidity and identifies the token characteristics associated with higher market activity. Using token-level data from RWA.xyz and supplemental contract-level observations from Etherscan, the study constructs an Ethereum-based monthly panel of non-stablecoin real-world assets across three prominent categories: U.S. Treasury-backed tokens, gold-backed commodity tokens, and private-credit-related tokens. Liquidity is measured using turnover, active addresses, and an active-month indicator. The empirical design combines descriptive statistics, non-parametric group tests, and exploratory panel regressions suited to short and sparse token histories. The results show substantial heterogeneity across asset categories. Gold-backed tokens exhibit broader holder bases and more persistent on-chain activity than many Treasury and private-credit-related products, while outstanding asset value alone does not reliably predict observed liquidity. The paper contributes to the literature by developing a clearer empirical measurement framework for real-world-asset liquidity and showing that tokenization and liquidity should be analyzed as distinct outcomes.
Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) on high-throughput blockchains can be captured through targeted search, where bots identify opportunities off-chain and submit route-committed transactions, or through probabilistic search, where bots submit repeated attempts that resolve opportunity discovery during on-chain execution. This distinction has direct implications for spam, blockspace consumption, and protocol fee revenue. We model how ordering granularity, fee floors, and opportunity-access shocks shape competition between these architectures. Using cyclic arbitrage data on Base from June 2025 to February 2026, we develop a trace-level classifier for search architectures and show that the resulting labels correspond to distinct execution behavior. We test the model across three episodes: Flashblocks selects against broad on-chain probabilistic scanners; token-launch opportunity shocks temporarily revive probabilistic search; and higher fee floors select against probabilistic bots whose opportunity flow cannot sustain repeated attempts. In our sample, probabilistic search accounts for only 23% of arbitrage activity but produces 95% of spam and consumes 20% of Base gas. After Base's configuration changes, protocol fee revenue shifts toward successful arbitrages and away from spam, probabilistic bots pay higher priority fees, and spam consumes a smaller share of blockspace.
The x402 protocol has crossed from prototype to infrastructure for the agentic web, driving 130 million all-time transactions and embedded in Google Cloud, Cloudflare, and Stripe. Yet bridging synchronous HTTP requests with asynchronous blockchain finality creates state-synchronization challenges, and x402's security has so far been examined only in piecemeal vendor disclosures. It is moreover not one artefact but a stack of an HTTP semantic, per-chain schemes, and a long tail of SDK and deployment choices whose required guarantees prior work has not established. We perform a systematic security analysis organized around five invariants grounded in specifications, literature, and vendor expectations, resolving every violation to the responsible layer. We identify four flaw classes: cross-resource substitution, duplicate-settlement race (independently corroborated by subsequent third-party reports), allowance overdraft, and denial of settlement. Against official SDKs and a production deployment, these reach resource-leakage ratios up to 100%. For pay-per-token scheme we prove a structural limit: no output-only pricing can be both fair to honest users and bounded against inflation of the hidden "thinking" tokens, the price of fairness being a $\sqrt{1+Θ}$ manipulation gap. We propose per-flaw mitigations and a defense triple with provable guarantees, cutting per-call reasoning cost by 47% and inverting attacker leverage from 8.7$\times$ to 0.9$\times$ at only 2.8% overhead. All findings have been disclosed.
Bitcoin price prediction has attracted hundreds of academic papers and continuous social media debate, yet the field lacks consensus on even basic questions: can any model beat a naive "today's price" baseline at horizons of one to six months? We survey the peer-reviewed landscape, categorize papers by evaluation methodology, and contrast academic findings with informal but substantive discourse on X/Twitter. The picture that emerges is sobering. At short-to-medium horizons, no peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes. Daily predictability is real but does not extend to hourly or monthly horizons, and may not survive transaction costs. The stock-to-flow model has failed formal out-of-sample testing, and Metcalfe's Law valuations have been challenged as spurious. The Bitcoin price power law, while empirically compelling, has not been subjected to formal distributional tests. Meanwhile, social media practitioners raise valid statistical critiques -- ordinary least squares (OLS) violations, backtest overfitting, spurious regressions -- that the academic literature has not formalized. We identify open research directions and propose concrete methodological standards for future work -- walk-forward evaluation, multi-regime holdout windows, naive baseline comparison, inclusion of zero in hyperparameter grids, and Diebold-Mariano significance testing -- arguing that the field's primary need is not more models but better evaluation.
Ivan Vynyavskyy, Stefan Kitzler, Bernhard Haslhofer, Aviv Yaish
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) prescribes how to maximise the return of an asset portfolio for a given level of risk. The optimal trade-off between return and variance defines the efficient frontier. Whether actual cryptoasset portfolios approximate this prescription and whether proximity to the frontier translates into realised performance remain difficult to test at large scale in traditional markets due to their opaque nature and the inaccessibility of data. As we show, public blockchains make these questions measurable: every token transfer is recorded, thus enabling complete portfolio reconstruction for every account at any point in time. We leverage this transparency to reconstruct cryptoasset portfolios for over 116M Ethereum accounts across the full chain history (2015-2025), measure their distance to the constrained efficient frontier, and quantify how deviations translate into realised performance. Here we show that market entry timing, not allocation choice, is the dominant predictor of realised cryptoasset returns. On-chain wealth is highly concentrated and portfolios are pervasively under-diversified, with single-asset holdings accounting for 83.35% of accounts. Two-asset portfolios sit closest to the efficient frontier defined by their held assets, a proximity that reflects the narrowness of their opportunity set rather than deliberate optimisation. Passive market-capitalisation weighting outperforms every MPT optimisation strategy in median realised return, and entry month alone explains 70-79% of the variance in returns, far exceeding the contribution of allocation choice. Mean-variance optimisation therefore appears neither descriptive of observed behaviour nor prescriptively useful in the cryptoasset domain, even if MPT retains its value as a normative benchmark.
This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.
Financial options are fundamental to traditional markets, enabling strategies ranging from hedging to speculating. Yet, while the Automated Market Maker paradigm has revolutionized decentralized spot markets, no equivalent standard has emerged for on-chain options. Typical designs attempt to replicate centralized exchange mechanics, requiring high-frequency oracles and robust liquidation engines which may fail during stress events. This paper presents a design for amortizing perpetual options tailored to the operational and adversarial constraints of blockchain environments. Leveraging this primitive, we introduce a decentralized market framework with minimal consistency requirements. We demonstrate that this contract functions as a foundational risk primitive for DeFi, enabling applications such as endogenous collateralization and explicitly priced de-peg insurance, thereby showing that this design provides a layer for mutualizing tail risk across protocols without reliance on centralized clearing institutions.
Abhinav Goel, Agostino Capponi, Alfio Gliozzo, Chaitya Shah
We introduce SmartEval, a benchmark for systematically evaluating the quality of Solidity smart contracts generated by large language models (LLMs) from natural language specifications. SmartEval provides a corpus of 9,000 generated contracts paired with expert-written ground-truth implementations drawn from the FSMSCG dataset, a five-dimensional evaluation rubric covering functional completeness, variable fidelity, state-machine correctness, business-logic fidelity, and code quality, and a reproducible generation-and-evaluation pipeline. To validate the benchmark's reliability, we conduct three independent empirical studies: a five-condition ablation study (N=300 per condition) isolating the contribution of each pipeline component, a human expert evaluation by three Columbia University PhD researchers confirming automated scores align with expert judgment to within 0.34 points, and external security analysis via the Slither static analyzer confirming 79.4% agreement between the LLM auditor and a non-LLM rule-based tool. Systematic analysis of 9,000 generated contracts reveals characteristic failure modes (logic omissions at 35.3%, state transition errors at 23.4%, and complexity-driven degradation) and quantifies a +8.29 composite-score advantage of generated contracts over ground-truth implementations, attributable to LLMs' literal specification-following behavior. SmartEval establishes a reproducible, validated foundation for empirical research on LLM smart contract synthesis quality, with all data, evaluation code, and generated contracts publicly released.
LLM-based financial agents increasingly rely on both numerical market data and textual signals for sequential trading and stock prediction. However, financial misinformation often appears as subtle textual perturbations rather than explicit falsehoods, making it difficult to detect while still capable of significantly altering agent reasoning and decisions. To study this risk, we propose AutoRedTrader, an autonomous red-teaming framework that generates finance-specific misinformation through behavioral bias manipulation, minor textual perturbations, and rewriting strategies, with agent feedback used to strengthen attacks over time. We evaluate AutoRedTrader in a POMDP-based financial agent simulation environment, and further examine a time-series-informed grounding setting for robustness analysis. The framework enables systematic evaluation of how subtle misinformation affects financial agents and whether historical market evidence can stabilize decisions under misleading textual signals. We evaluate the framework on Bitcoin transaction data. The results show that AutoRedTrader achieves the strongest attack performance with 69.00% misinformation exposure rate and 26.67% attack success rate, outperforming general-purpose misinformation and red-teaming baselines. Ablation studies further show that all modules contribute to generating retrievable and decision-effective financial misinformation.
Swati Sachan, Dale Fickett, Richard Buchinger, Theo Miller
Recent advances in error-corrected qubits have accelerated the timeline for practical quantum computing. It poses a threat to cryptographic primitives used to secure financial systems, government infrastructure, communication networks, and DeFi (Decentralized Finance) ecosystems. This paper introduces a post-quantum secure federated DeFi framework that enables inter-bank collaboration to improve the inclusivity of individuals underserved by local lenders due to limited financial histories. Multiple banks contribute encrypted information batches to a virtual server, where lattice-based Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) enables end-to-end homomorphic computation. The server fuses local data-driven probabilistic assessments, expert beliefs, and verifiable evidence generated by the NASA-IBM Prithvi Geospatial Foundation Model (GFM), in encrypted format. Decentralized technologies are employed to ensure tamper-proof evidence and auditable accountability for all encrypted data exchanges between institutions and the server. The framework is tested on agricultural lending decisions for rural borrowers in Virginia.