Since 2008, when the cryptocurrency was first introduced under the name Satoshi Nakamoto, more and more people are interested in the «new money» – Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and although many other cryptocurrencies were created and will be created in the future, Bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency to this day. Naturally, along with the rapid growth of information technologies and their applications, many new «computerized» currencies will emerge. Because anyone can buy and sell cryptocurrency (e.g. bitcoin) and, thus, cryptocurrency is a subject of trade, hence cryptocurrency and in particular bitcoin is a product. Naturally, questions arise about the determinants of cryptocurrency price changes. In particular: Are the changes in the prices of cryptocurrency (and in particular Bitcoin) related to the development trends of the global economy? Are changes in the prices of cryptocurrency (and in particular Bitcoin) related to indicators of the state of the global economy, such as the well-known indices DJII, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and others. Thus it is interesting to see whether it is possible to predict changes in the prices of cryptocurrencies (and in particular Bitcoin) using different methods of time series.
The article examines the decentralized finances of some organizations that are an independent part of the financial system of the Russian Federation. The question of their place in the system of the branch of financial law is analyzed. Based on the study of the works of a number of well-known scientists of Soviet as well as Russian financial law, it is concluded that the idea of separating the finances of some organizations into an independent legal institution was put forward during the Soviet period. Such an independent institute of the branch of financial law was the Institute of Finance of state-owned enterprises (associations) and branches of the national economy. At the present stage, these ideas are expanding due to the justification of the include new legal institutions in the system of financial law, for example, organizations such as state corporations, public law companies, state and municipal institutions.
A comparison of average Bitcoin prices in US dollars and average Wolf numbers for the solar cycle average for 2009–2025 allowed us to construct a model that explains 63.22% of the data variance. The author predicts a decline in the average annual Bitcoin price in 2026 and 2027.
Subject. The article examines the evolution of scientific concepts of financial intermediation as a key institution of the modern economy. The study focuses on theoretical approaches to explaining the nature, functions, and role of financial intermediaries in resource allocation, risk reduction, and maintaining financial system stability. Objectives. The aim is to systematize and analyze the evolution of financial intermediation theory—from classical models to modern concepts—considering their continuity and the influence of external economic and technological factor. Methods. The methodological basis includes comparative analysis, institutional and functional approaches, and elements of empirical generalization. Results. We identified and compared key criteria for evaluating theories of financial intermediation, established the continuity between major theoretical approaches, enabling to trace changes in views on the nature and functions of intermediaries. Furthermore, we described mechanisms of asset and risk transformation. The study also addresses whether decentralized finance constitutes an independent theoretical paradigm or continues existing approaches. The results are applicable for improving research in finance and formulating strategies for regulation and sector development. Conclusions. The functional content of financial intermediation has expanded considerably and is integrated into modern economic models. Modern theories view intermediaries as system-forming elements that ensure the stability and development of the financial system.
Regional Economic Development and Innovation
Economic, Social, and Public Health Issues in Russia and Globally
Reliable asset price data are critical for the functioning of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, particularly those involving collateralized lending. The accuracy of blockchain-based price oracles directly affects key processes such as collateral valuation, liquidation, and risk management. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of Chainlink Price Feeds (CPFs), the dominant oracle infrastructure in DeFi. We compile a novel dataset of over 150 million observations from 40 CPFs on Ethereum over an 18-month period, matched to benchmark prices from a centralized exchange. To identify the determinants of oracle inaccuracy, we estimate pooled OLS and fixed effects regressions, relating price deviations to design parameters, reporter dynamics, and market conditions. We then introduce a Markov-like state transition framework to model the resolution of target corridor violations, using multinomial logistic regression to estimate transition probabilities. Finally, we exploit position-level data from one of the largest decentralized lending markets and apply entity fixed effects regressions to examine how users adjust collateralization in response to oracle design. Our findings highlight economically significant deviations that are systematically related to oracle accuracy configurations and market stress, and show that users internalize these risks in their financial decisions. The results offer new insights for the design of resilient oracle systems and the management of risk in decentralized financial markets.
Andrew Hudson‐Smith, Duncan Wilson, Valerio Signorelli
This chapter explores the complex interplay between economics and security in the rapidly evolving metaverse. It examines the economic dynamics underpinning virtual worlds, including the rise of cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens, and digital asset ownership. We examine case studies of economic systems within platforms like Second Life, Decentraland, and Fortnite, highlighting the substantial real-world value generated in these virtual economies. The chapter also addresses the critical security challenges facing the metaverse, including cybercrime, terrorism, and jurisdictional issues in enforcing laws across digital borders. It recounts one of the earliest documented virtual terrorist attacks and discusses the need for robust security measures to protect users and digital assets. We conclude by emphasising the frontier nature of the metaverse, its potential for economic growth and innovation, and the critical importance of balancing security concerns with the development of this new digital frontier.
Aim . To reveal the ideological nature of digital decentralization as a systemic challenge to traditional state sovereignty and to identify risks for modern states amid technological transformation. Methodology . The core of the study comprises an analysis of key digital decentralization ideologies (crypto-anarchism, cyber-syndicalism, cypherpunk), their technological foundations, and implementation practices. A comparative analysis of foundational manifestos by crypto-anarchists and cypherpunks (T. May, E. Hughes) was conducted, and the evolution of decentralized movements was synthesized. Results . The analysis demonstrated that the synergy of technologies and extra-systemic ideologies creates parallel governance systems undermining the state’s monopoly on regulating finance, information, law, and the exercise of power. Threats to modern states include: erosion of trust in institutions, use of decentralized digital resources for protest mobilization, sanctions evasion via cryptocurrencies, and increased citizen registrations in virtual jurisdictions operating beyond national law. Research implications . Proposals for state adaptation are formulated: shifting from technology bans to dialogue with IT communities and developing preventive measures. The author introduces an original interpretation of digital decentralization as “engineering autocracy”, where algorithmic power replaces political-legal mechanisms. The study reframes issues of state sovereignty in the context of competition with decentralized anti-systems.
В статье рассматриваются алгоритмы консенсуса как основа функционирования криптовалютных и блокчейн-систем. Раскрывается их экономическая и технологическая сущность, проводится сравнительный анализ основных моделей – Proof-of-Work (PoW), Proof-of-Stake (PoS), Delegated Proof-of-Stake (DPoS), Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) и гибридных решений. Выделяются их преимущества и недостатки, определяется область применения и перспективы развития в условиях необходимости повышения масштабируемости, энергоэффективности и устойчивости к кибератакам. Особое внимание уделяется проблеме «триилеммы блокчейна» и поиску оптимального баланса между безопасностью, децентрализацией и производительностью. Сделан вывод о важности гибридных моделей и инновационных протоколов в формировании будущей архитектуры децентрализованных финансов.
Andrey Zaytsev, Nikolay Dmitriev, Evgenii Konnikov
A unified software-analytical suite is proposed. It implements a closed-loop control cycle for regional energy systems. The implementation combines event-driven modeling with two-stage stochastic optimization. The suite includes adaptive web parsers. The parsers extract and semantically verify telemetry data regardless of changes in web page structures and anti-bot mechanisms. The system employs the discrete-event simulator SimPy. That simulator reproduces equipment failures, load fluctuations and external disturbances. An analytical subsystem processes textual event logs. It applies TF-IDF and cosine similarity. It simulates quantum annealing to determine automatically the optimal cluster count. It evaluates cluster stability. A Pyomo-based optimization module solves a two-stage optimization program. Scenario generation employs Monte Carlo and Latin-Hypercube sampling. Subtasks distribute across computing resources in parallel. The system provides scalable configuration. It ensures high availability and fault tolerance. The solution offers extensible visualization. It supports flexible parameterization and API integration. Testing on real operational data for a regional energy system confirmed adaptability of the suite. It also demonstrated capacity to scale when the number of nodes and the volume of events increases. Future work will integrate machine learning algorithms for predictive analytics. The plan includes extending the model to multistage problems with distributed ledger technologies.
This research examines the application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for predicting cryptocurrency prices, with a focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two dominant digital assets with the highest market capitalization. The study addresses the critical challenge of accurately forecasting cryptocurrency price movements in highly volatile markets, which is essential for informed investment decision-making in the digital economy. The methodology employs LSTM models trained on historical closing price data from 2014 to 2024 for Bitcoin and from 2017 to 2024 for Ethereum, utilizing an 80:20 training-to-testing ratio. Results demonstrate exceptional predictive accuracy with R² values of 99.08% for Bitcoin and 97.44% for Ethereum, while MAPE values remained low at 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively. The study concludes that LSTM models effectively capture complex patterns in cryptocurrency price movements, providing reliable short-term forecasting capabilities and contributing valuable insights to the intersection of artificial intelligence and digital economy development.
Digital currency, as an emerging financial instrument, is having a profound impact on the traditional financial system. This paper explores the transformative role of digital currencies on the global financial system by analysing the types of digital currencies, their technological foundations and their impact on the areas of money supply, banking, payment systems and capital markets. First, digital currencies have improved payment efficiency and financial inclusion, especially central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and decentralized finance (DeFi) have driven innovation in payment systems and cross-border payments. Second, the popularity of digital currencies also poses regulatory and compliance challenges, particularly in terms of monetary policy, financial stability, and cross-border regulation. Finally, the paper highlights the potential of digital currencies to drive financial services inclusion and market innovation, particularly in the area of decentralised finance. Nonetheless, issues of technical security, market risk and legal compliance still need to bead dressed. In the future, the development of digital currencies will depend on technological advances and regulatory harmonization on a global scale.
Blockchain-based digital assets represent a new stage in the evolution of monetary systems. However, the mechanisms of seigniorage – the revenue derived from issuing these digital assets – remain insufficiently studied, creating a research gap. The author addresses this topic to analyze how seigniorage is transformed in the context of digitalization and what new forms it assumes. The objective of the work is to investigate the evolution and mechanisms of seigniorage in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The tasks include analyzing the historical development of digital assets, comparing seigniorage mechanisms (Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake), and assessing the prospects for implementing the digital ruble in Russia. Research methods: analysis of historical data, comparison of seigniorage mechanisms in blockchain projects (Bitcoin, Ethereum, MakerDAO), and evaluation of the economic aspects of central bank digital currencies. The study utilizes open data, legislative acts, and scientific publications. The results demonstrate that seigniorage in digital assets takes on new forms, such as mining, staking, and algorithmic governance, which contribute to the creation of significant financial value. The implementation of the digital ruble, despite high costs, presents opportunities to enhance the efficiency of the financial system. The scope of application for the results includes developing regulatory approaches to digital assets and optimizing seigniorage mechanisms.
Стремительное развитие технологического прогресса кардинально меняет экономическую сферу, формируя принципиально новые подходы к ведению бизнеса и финансовым операциям. Современная экономика трансформируется под влиянием цифровых инноваций, включая системы машинного обучения, распределенных реестров, автоматизированных процессов и виртуальных активов. Масштабное внедрение сетевых решений, технологий защиты информации и аналитики массивов данных создает фундамент для качественного скачка в развитии производственных и финансовых отношений. The rapid development of technological progress is radically changing the economic sphere, forming fundamentally new approaches to doing business and financial transactions. The modern economy is being transformed by digital innovations, including machine learning systems, distributed ledgers, automated processes, and virtual assets. The large-scale implementation of network solutions, information security technologies, and data analytics creates the foundation for a qualitative leap in the development of industrial and financial relations.
The breakneck pace of digital transformation in sectors around the world have driven developments in cybersecurity, AI and cloud technology. But with great progress comes great responsibility, and with generating such evolution it gives rise to lots of issues when it comes to data privacy, system to system connectivity, leveraging knowledge and infrastructure scalability. This paper provides an integrated solution that can be harnessed to secure, operate and make digital ecosystems more agile, by amalgamating present day practices and technologies that many organizations face in their current environments across security, operation and agility when it comes to digitalization. It covers proactive cybersecurity approaches like DevSecOps and Zero Trust Architecture, AI based intelligent threat analysis and real-time automation, and cloud-native and edge computing models for scalable and resilient infrastructure. The study at the same time showcases advancements in data processing and encryption, legal compliance, providing enterprises with a roadmap toward safer, AI-infused and cloud supported infrastructure. By bringing these columns together, the research offers strategic recommendations for businesses wishing to future-proof their digital business as they negotiate an ever more volatile and risk-filled technology environment.
Open access
Economic and Technological Systems Analysis
Advanced Research in Systems and Signal Processing
The presented study examines the problems of regulating the cryptocurrency market in Russia and other countries, as well as measures to prevent attempts at tax evasion and illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies. Special attention is paid to the identification of possible tax evasion schemes in the implementation of these operations. Goal. To consider the main problems of regulating the cryptocurrency market, which sometimes make it impossible for regulators, including tax authorities, to control this market. And also to study the measures that have been taken by regulators from various countries around the world, including Russia, to combat tax evasion. Tasks. Consider the concept of "cryptocurrencies" in various jurisdictions, analyze the main difficulties for tax and other regulatory authorities to control transactions with cryptocurrencies; identify the main tax evasion schemes, as well as examine the measures taken by various countries in the fight against tax evasion. Methodology. The study used general scientific methods, in addition to which an analysis of the current legislative bases regulating the cryptocurrency market was conducted, as well as creating conditions for preventing attempts to evade taxes and commit illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies. This included a study of both national and international regulations, which made it possible to assess the legal framework and potential risks associated with the current regulations. This comprehensive approach to the analysis of legislation has helped to identify current issues and shortcomings in regulation, as well as to offer recommendations for improving the regulatory environment. Results. In the course of studying the approach to defining cryptocurrencies, as well as considering the main characteristics of cryptocurrencies, it was found that the concept of "cryptocurrency" requires a single definition to establish the legal status of this digital currency. There is a need to create conditions to prevent illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies, to operate effective investor protection mechanisms, to strengthen consumer protection, and to improve cooperation with international partners. Conclusions. The conducted research indicates the need to change the legislative framework for the cryptocurrency market, taking into account the existing positive experience of various countries. The study also revealed the need to strengthen international cooperation to exchange information on operations in the cryptocurrency market in order to prevent attempts at tax evasion.
Introduction. In the current context of the digital transformation of society, there is a growing need to rethink the role of public finance as a tool not only for fiscal regulation but also for strategic development. Traditional models of budget administration are proving insufficient to ensure transparency, accountability and efficiency in the management of public resources. At the same time, the rapid development of digital technologies, such as blockchain, big data, and artificial intelligence, opens up new opportunities for modernizing the financial system. In this context, the study of the digital transformation of public finance is extremely relevant, as it meets the challenges of the innovation economy and the need to increase trust in public administration. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is a combination of systemic and structural-functional approaches, typological analysis, case method and visualization methods. The empirical basis is based on examples of the implementation of digital platforms in public finance in Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States, and Canada. The chronological scope of the study covers 2015-2024. The source base is formed on the basis of data from open budget portals, regulations and international reports (IMF, World Bank, OECD). Results. The article presents a classification of digital solutions into four generations: from open data portals to blockchain platforms with smart contracts. A comparative analysis of the functionality, legal integration and scalability of the OpenBudget, ProZorro and GovChain platforms is carried out. Discussion. The results obtained can be used as an analytical and methodological basis for further research in the field of digital design of budget ecosystems, as well as for the development of regulatory approaches to the integration of decentralized technologies into public financial management. Keywords: public finance, digital transformation, blockchain, smart contracts, ProZorro, OpenBudget, GovChain.
This study explores the information security strategy in digital currency and decentralized international trade from the theoretical and application levels. This strategy can solve the application layer security issues of blockchain technology in cross-border trade. This study proposes a blockchain-based digital currency security improvement framework by combining model analysis with actual needs. The research method includes the improvement of evolutionary game analysis of 51 % double-spending attack, the response strategy of complex double-spending attack and the privacy protection mechanism based on zero-knowledge proof. This fusion gap framework can improve the security of model to the greatest extent. The experimental results numerically show that by reasonably setting the number of transaction confirmations ($M$value), the success rate of double-spending attacks can be significantly reduced. Specifically, when$M=6$, the attack success rate drops to 0.21 %. In addition, the zero-knowledge proof encryption scheme performs well in privacy protection experiments. The accuracy of experimental results has been remained above 99.35 %, and with highest reaching 99.83 %. This result is better than the traditional homomorphic encryption and cipher-text encryption methods.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the institutional and technological dimensions of anti-money laundering (AML) measures within the cryptocurrency space. The focus is on Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendation 15 and its implementation in the Russian legal framework, as well as the regulation of digital financial assets and the digital ruble in the context of tightening international standards. A key issue addressed is the inherent contradiction between the fundamental properties of cryptocurrencies – namely, anonymity and decentralization – and the imperative to ensure transparency of financial transactions in accordance with AML/CFT (Countering Financing of Terrorism) requirements. The study systematizes modern approaches to minimizing this conflict, including customer identification mechanisms, transaction monitoring systems, and technological solutions to enhance operational transparency. Additionally, it examines the positions of Russian regulators concerning AML/CFT compliance in relation to virtual assets. Based on the conducted research, the study identifies emerging trends in the development of regulatory and legal frameworks and discusses prospects for adapting national legislation to meet global regulatory challenges.
Open access
Economic and Technological Developments in Russia
Economic Systems and Logistics Management
Economic, Social, and Public Health Issues in Russia and Globally
The article is devoted to the development of a methodological approach to managing the scientific component of the budget process at the municipal level under the conditions of power decentralization in Ukraine. Given the increasing complexity of the socio-economic environment, the need for balanced local finances, and the focus on sustainable development of territorial communities, the author emphasizes the significance of scientific and analytical support in the budget process. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach to managing the scientific component of the municipal budget process, taking into account modern challenges, institutional specifics, and international experience. The research methods include systems analysis, structural-functional approach, institutional-comparative analysis, as well as logical and formalized modeling methods in the field of scientific support of the budget process. The article explores the theoretical foundations of scientific support for the budget process, analyzes the current state, and identifies key issues in managing the scientific component within Ukrainian municipalities. It reveals the essence and functions of the scientific component in budget management – from research planning and analytical database formation to the evaluation of decision effectiveness and forecasting the influence of external factors. The key principles of effective management are defined: scientific validity, interdisciplinarity, adaptability, openness, and institutional interaction. The opportunities for integrating scientific institutions, independent analytical centers, and digital tools into municipal budget management are systematized. Results. A conceptual model for managing the scientific component is proposed, encompassing the following stages: strategic planning of scientific and analytical support, coordination of stakeholder actions, organization of institutional cooperation, provision of resource support, and implementation of control and evaluation mechanisms. It is argued that systematic management of the scientific component improves the quality of managerial decisions, ensures transparency in the budget process, and strengthens citizens’ trust in local self-government authorities. The research findings can be applied in the development of municipal development strategies, the design of institutional cooperation mechanisms with scientific institutions, and the digitalization of public finance management at the local level.
Understanding regime shifts in crypto asset markets is essential for anticipating systemic risk and enhancing real-time monitoring tools. This study investigates structural changes in five major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Aave (AAVE), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH)—over the 2023–2025 period. Using the Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test applied to daily high-frequency mid-price data, we assess the presence and timing of structural breaks in each asset. The results reveal that BTC and BCH experienced regime shifts that aligned with macroeconomic developments such as monetary policy announcements. In contrast, DeFi-related tokens (ETH, SOL, and AAVE) exhibited more fragmented and short-lived shifts, often driven by project-specific technical changes. Notably, ETH showed a structural break in April 2024, likely related to Layer-2 migration pressures and delays in protocol upgrades. In April 2025, both the crypto asset market and traditional financial markets experienced substantial turbulence following heightened trade policy actions by the United States, which fueled global economic uncertainty. Despite these disturbances, the S&P 500 index did not exhibit persistent structural breaks, suggesting that traditional equity markets are more resilient to transient macroeconomic shocks. This contrast underscores Bitcoin’s emerging role as a macro-sensitive digital asset and highlights the structural volatility within decentralized finance ecosystems. Although the GSADF test is computationally intensive (O(T4)), we discuss future research directions involving GPU acceleration and surrogate modeling. Additionally, we propose the integration of LPPLS-based frameworks to support real-time detection of financial exuberance and contribute to more robust risk management strategies in volatile crypto-financial systems.