Since 2008, when the cryptocurrency was first introduced under the name Satoshi Nakamoto, more and more people are interested in the «new money» – Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and although many other cryptocurrencies were created and will be created in the future, Bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency to this day. Naturally, along with the rapid growth of information technologies and their applications, many new «computerized» currencies will emerge. Because anyone can buy and sell cryptocurrency (e.g. bitcoin) and, thus, cryptocurrency is a subject of trade, hence cryptocurrency and in particular bitcoin is a product. Naturally, questions arise about the determinants of cryptocurrency price changes. In particular: Are the changes in the prices of cryptocurrency (and in particular Bitcoin) related to the development trends of the global economy? Are changes in the prices of cryptocurrency (and in particular Bitcoin) related to indicators of the state of the global economy, such as the well-known indices DJII, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and others. Thus it is interesting to see whether it is possible to predict changes in the prices of cryptocurrencies (and in particular Bitcoin) using different methods of time series.
A comparison of average Bitcoin prices in US dollars and average Wolf numbers for the solar cycle average for 2009–2025 allowed us to construct a model that explains 63.22% of the data variance. The author predicts a decline in the average annual Bitcoin price in 2026 and 2027.
Reliable asset price data are critical for the functioning of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, particularly those involving collateralized lending. The accuracy of blockchain-based price oracles directly affects key processes such as collateral valuation, liquidation, and risk management. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of Chainlink Price Feeds (CPFs), the dominant oracle infrastructure in DeFi. We compile a novel dataset of over 150 million observations from 40 CPFs on Ethereum over an 18-month period, matched to benchmark prices from a centralized exchange. To identify the determinants of oracle inaccuracy, we estimate pooled OLS and fixed effects regressions, relating price deviations to design parameters, reporter dynamics, and market conditions. We then introduce a Markov-like state transition framework to model the resolution of target corridor violations, using multinomial logistic regression to estimate transition probabilities. Finally, we exploit position-level data from one of the largest decentralized lending markets and apply entity fixed effects regressions to examine how users adjust collateralization in response to oracle design. Our findings highlight economically significant deviations that are systematically related to oracle accuracy configurations and market stress, and show that users internalize these risks in their financial decisions. The results offer new insights for the design of resilient oracle systems and the management of risk in decentralized financial markets.
Aim . To reveal the ideological nature of digital decentralization as a systemic challenge to traditional state sovereignty and to identify risks for modern states amid technological transformation. Methodology . The core of the study comprises an analysis of key digital decentralization ideologies (crypto-anarchism, cyber-syndicalism, cypherpunk), their technological foundations, and implementation practices. A comparative analysis of foundational manifestos by crypto-anarchists and cypherpunks (T. May, E. Hughes) was conducted, and the evolution of decentralized movements was synthesized. Results . The analysis demonstrated that the synergy of technologies and extra-systemic ideologies creates parallel governance systems undermining the state’s monopoly on regulating finance, information, law, and the exercise of power. Threats to modern states include: erosion of trust in institutions, use of decentralized digital resources for protest mobilization, sanctions evasion via cryptocurrencies, and increased citizen registrations in virtual jurisdictions operating beyond national law. Research implications . Proposals for state adaptation are formulated: shifting from technology bans to dialogue with IT communities and developing preventive measures. The author introduces an original interpretation of digital decentralization as “engineering autocracy”, where algorithmic power replaces political-legal mechanisms. The study reframes issues of state sovereignty in the context of competition with decentralized anti-systems.
В статье рассматриваются алгоритмы консенсуса как основа функционирования криптовалютных и блокчейн-систем. Раскрывается их экономическая и технологическая сущность, проводится сравнительный анализ основных моделей – Proof-of-Work (PoW), Proof-of-Stake (PoS), Delegated Proof-of-Stake (DPoS), Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) и гибридных решений. Выделяются их преимущества и недостатки, определяется область применения и перспективы развития в условиях необходимости повышения масштабируемости, энергоэффективности и устойчивости к кибератакам. Особое внимание уделяется проблеме «триилеммы блокчейна» и поиску оптимального баланса между безопасностью, децентрализацией и производительностью. Сделан вывод о важности гибридных моделей и инновационных протоколов в формировании будущей архитектуры децентрализованных финансов.
This research examines the application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for predicting cryptocurrency prices, with a focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two dominant digital assets with the highest market capitalization. The study addresses the critical challenge of accurately forecasting cryptocurrency price movements in highly volatile markets, which is essential for informed investment decision-making in the digital economy. The methodology employs LSTM models trained on historical closing price data from 2014 to 2024 for Bitcoin and from 2017 to 2024 for Ethereum, utilizing an 80:20 training-to-testing ratio. Results demonstrate exceptional predictive accuracy with R² values of 99.08% for Bitcoin and 97.44% for Ethereum, while MAPE values remained low at 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively. The study concludes that LSTM models effectively capture complex patterns in cryptocurrency price movements, providing reliable short-term forecasting capabilities and contributing valuable insights to the intersection of artificial intelligence and digital economy development.
Digital currency, as an emerging financial instrument, is having a profound impact on the traditional financial system. This paper explores the transformative role of digital currencies on the global financial system by analysing the types of digital currencies, their technological foundations and their impact on the areas of money supply, banking, payment systems and capital markets. First, digital currencies have improved payment efficiency and financial inclusion, especially central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and decentralized finance (DeFi) have driven innovation in payment systems and cross-border payments. Second, the popularity of digital currencies also poses regulatory and compliance challenges, particularly in terms of monetary policy, financial stability, and cross-border regulation. Finally, the paper highlights the potential of digital currencies to drive financial services inclusion and market innovation, particularly in the area of decentralised finance. Nonetheless, issues of technical security, market risk and legal compliance still need to bead dressed. In the future, the development of digital currencies will depend on technological advances and regulatory harmonization on a global scale.
Blockchain-based digital assets represent a new stage in the evolution of monetary systems. However, the mechanisms of seigniorage – the revenue derived from issuing these digital assets – remain insufficiently studied, creating a research gap. The author addresses this topic to analyze how seigniorage is transformed in the context of digitalization and what new forms it assumes. The objective of the work is to investigate the evolution and mechanisms of seigniorage in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The tasks include analyzing the historical development of digital assets, comparing seigniorage mechanisms (Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake), and assessing the prospects for implementing the digital ruble in Russia. Research methods: analysis of historical data, comparison of seigniorage mechanisms in blockchain projects (Bitcoin, Ethereum, MakerDAO), and evaluation of the economic aspects of central bank digital currencies. The study utilizes open data, legislative acts, and scientific publications. The results demonstrate that seigniorage in digital assets takes on new forms, such as mining, staking, and algorithmic governance, which contribute to the creation of significant financial value. The implementation of the digital ruble, despite high costs, presents opportunities to enhance the efficiency of the financial system. The scope of application for the results includes developing regulatory approaches to digital assets and optimizing seigniorage mechanisms.
The breakneck pace of digital transformation in sectors around the world have driven developments in cybersecurity, AI and cloud technology. But with great progress comes great responsibility, and with generating such evolution it gives rise to lots of issues when it comes to data privacy, system to system connectivity, leveraging knowledge and infrastructure scalability. This paper provides an integrated solution that can be harnessed to secure, operate and make digital ecosystems more agile, by amalgamating present day practices and technologies that many organizations face in their current environments across security, operation and agility when it comes to digitalization. It covers proactive cybersecurity approaches like DevSecOps and Zero Trust Architecture, AI based intelligent threat analysis and real-time automation, and cloud-native and edge computing models for scalable and resilient infrastructure. The study at the same time showcases advancements in data processing and encryption, legal compliance, providing enterprises with a roadmap toward safer, AI-infused and cloud supported infrastructure. By bringing these columns together, the research offers strategic recommendations for businesses wishing to future-proof their digital business as they negotiate an ever more volatile and risk-filled technology environment.
Open access
Economic and Technological Systems Analysis
Advanced Research in Systems and Signal Processing
The presented study examines the problems of regulating the cryptocurrency market in Russia and other countries, as well as measures to prevent attempts at tax evasion and illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies. Special attention is paid to the identification of possible tax evasion schemes in the implementation of these operations. Goal. To consider the main problems of regulating the cryptocurrency market, which sometimes make it impossible for regulators, including tax authorities, to control this market. And also to study the measures that have been taken by regulators from various countries around the world, including Russia, to combat tax evasion. Tasks. Consider the concept of "cryptocurrencies" in various jurisdictions, analyze the main difficulties for tax and other regulatory authorities to control transactions with cryptocurrencies; identify the main tax evasion schemes, as well as examine the measures taken by various countries in the fight against tax evasion. Methodology. The study used general scientific methods, in addition to which an analysis of the current legislative bases regulating the cryptocurrency market was conducted, as well as creating conditions for preventing attempts to evade taxes and commit illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies. This included a study of both national and international regulations, which made it possible to assess the legal framework and potential risks associated with the current regulations. This comprehensive approach to the analysis of legislation has helped to identify current issues and shortcomings in regulation, as well as to offer recommendations for improving the regulatory environment. Results. In the course of studying the approach to defining cryptocurrencies, as well as considering the main characteristics of cryptocurrencies, it was found that the concept of "cryptocurrency" requires a single definition to establish the legal status of this digital currency. There is a need to create conditions to prevent illegal transactions with cryptocurrencies, to operate effective investor protection mechanisms, to strengthen consumer protection, and to improve cooperation with international partners. Conclusions. The conducted research indicates the need to change the legislative framework for the cryptocurrency market, taking into account the existing positive experience of various countries. The study also revealed the need to strengthen international cooperation to exchange information on operations in the cryptocurrency market in order to prevent attempts at tax evasion.
Introduction. In the current context of the digital transformation of society, there is a growing need to rethink the role of public finance as a tool not only for fiscal regulation but also for strategic development. Traditional models of budget administration are proving insufficient to ensure transparency, accountability and efficiency in the management of public resources. At the same time, the rapid development of digital technologies, such as blockchain, big data, and artificial intelligence, opens up new opportunities for modernizing the financial system. In this context, the study of the digital transformation of public finance is extremely relevant, as it meets the challenges of the innovation economy and the need to increase trust in public administration. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is a combination of systemic and structural-functional approaches, typological analysis, case method and visualization methods. The empirical basis is based on examples of the implementation of digital platforms in public finance in Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States, and Canada. The chronological scope of the study covers 2015-2024. The source base is formed on the basis of data from open budget portals, regulations and international reports (IMF, World Bank, OECD). Results. The article presents a classification of digital solutions into four generations: from open data portals to blockchain platforms with smart contracts. A comparative analysis of the functionality, legal integration and scalability of the OpenBudget, ProZorro and GovChain platforms is carried out. Discussion. The results obtained can be used as an analytical and methodological basis for further research in the field of digital design of budget ecosystems, as well as for the development of regulatory approaches to the integration of decentralized technologies into public financial management. Keywords: public finance, digital transformation, blockchain, smart contracts, ProZorro, OpenBudget, GovChain.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the institutional and technological dimensions of anti-money laundering (AML) measures within the cryptocurrency space. The focus is on Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendation 15 and its implementation in the Russian legal framework, as well as the regulation of digital financial assets and the digital ruble in the context of tightening international standards. A key issue addressed is the inherent contradiction between the fundamental properties of cryptocurrencies – namely, anonymity and decentralization – and the imperative to ensure transparency of financial transactions in accordance with AML/CFT (Countering Financing of Terrorism) requirements. The study systematizes modern approaches to minimizing this conflict, including customer identification mechanisms, transaction monitoring systems, and technological solutions to enhance operational transparency. Additionally, it examines the positions of Russian regulators concerning AML/CFT compliance in relation to virtual assets. Based on the conducted research, the study identifies emerging trends in the development of regulatory and legal frameworks and discusses prospects for adapting national legislation to meet global regulatory challenges.
Open access
Economic and Technological Developments in Russia
Economic Systems and Logistics Management
Economic, Social, and Public Health Issues in Russia and Globally
The article is devoted to the development of a methodological approach to managing the scientific component of the budget process at the municipal level under the conditions of power decentralization in Ukraine. Given the increasing complexity of the socio-economic environment, the need for balanced local finances, and the focus on sustainable development of territorial communities, the author emphasizes the significance of scientific and analytical support in the budget process. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach to managing the scientific component of the municipal budget process, taking into account modern challenges, institutional specifics, and international experience. The research methods include systems analysis, structural-functional approach, institutional-comparative analysis, as well as logical and formalized modeling methods in the field of scientific support of the budget process. The article explores the theoretical foundations of scientific support for the budget process, analyzes the current state, and identifies key issues in managing the scientific component within Ukrainian municipalities. It reveals the essence and functions of the scientific component in budget management – from research planning and analytical database formation to the evaluation of decision effectiveness and forecasting the influence of external factors. The key principles of effective management are defined: scientific validity, interdisciplinarity, adaptability, openness, and institutional interaction. The opportunities for integrating scientific institutions, independent analytical centers, and digital tools into municipal budget management are systematized. Results. A conceptual model for managing the scientific component is proposed, encompassing the following stages: strategic planning of scientific and analytical support, coordination of stakeholder actions, organization of institutional cooperation, provision of resource support, and implementation of control and evaluation mechanisms. It is argued that systematic management of the scientific component improves the quality of managerial decisions, ensures transparency in the budget process, and strengthens citizens’ trust in local self-government authorities. The research findings can be applied in the development of municipal development strategies, the design of institutional cooperation mechanisms with scientific institutions, and the digitalization of public finance management at the local level.
Understanding regime shifts in crypto asset markets is essential for anticipating systemic risk and enhancing real-time monitoring tools. This study investigates structural changes in five major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Aave (AAVE), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH)—over the 2023–2025 period. Using the Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test applied to daily high-frequency mid-price data, we assess the presence and timing of structural breaks in each asset. The results reveal that BTC and BCH experienced regime shifts that aligned with macroeconomic developments such as monetary policy announcements. In contrast, DeFi-related tokens (ETH, SOL, and AAVE) exhibited more fragmented and short-lived shifts, often driven by project-specific technical changes. Notably, ETH showed a structural break in April 2024, likely related to Layer-2 migration pressures and delays in protocol upgrades. In April 2025, both the crypto asset market and traditional financial markets experienced substantial turbulence following heightened trade policy actions by the United States, which fueled global economic uncertainty. Despite these disturbances, the S&P 500 index did not exhibit persistent structural breaks, suggesting that traditional equity markets are more resilient to transient macroeconomic shocks. This contrast underscores Bitcoin’s emerging role as a macro-sensitive digital asset and highlights the structural volatility within decentralized finance ecosystems. Although the GSADF test is computationally intensive (O(T4)), we discuss future research directions involving GPU acceleration and surrogate modeling. Additionally, we propose the integration of LPPLS-based frameworks to support real-time detection of financial exuberance and contribute to more robust risk management strategies in volatile crypto-financial systems.
The article is devoted to the problem of terminological uncertainty and the lack of a unified classification of cryptocurrencies and digital assets in modern Russian legislation. Despite the adoption of Federal Law from 31.07.2020 No. 259-FZ “On Digital Financial Assets, Digital Currency and Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation”, there are many controversial issues in law enforcement practice regarding the legal status of cryptocurrencies and their place in the financial system. The article analyzes existing approaches to defining digital assets in Russian and international regulations, as well as in scientific literature. The variety of classifications and the variety of functional characteristics inherent in different types of cryptocurrencies and tokens are noted. Key contradictions between the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies and attempts at government regulation are identified. The author’s definitions of digital currency, cryptoasset and cryptocurrency are formulated, taking into account technological, economic and legal aspects. Recommendations are proposed for improving legislation and developing agreed standards in the field of digital financial assets. The authors emphasize the need to balance the interests of the state, business, and society to ensure the successful development of the digital economy in Russia.
This paper examines the phenomenon of digital transformation in socio-economic systems as an object of public governance through the transition from an instrumental to a substantional understanding of digital technologies’ role. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the research systematizes theoretical and methodological concepts of digital transformation and identifies its seven fundamental properties: transversality, recursiveness, emergence, accelerativity, cognitive-transformational potential, institutional reconfigurability, and ontological hybridity. These properties form the methodological foundation for a new understanding of digital transformation, where technologies are viewed not as external optimization tools but as constitutive elements of a new institutional reality. The study develops a matrix of digital transformation’s impact on components of the socio-economic system, structuring the nature of changes, influence mechanisms, and resulting effects for economic, social, political-administrative, innovative, and informational subsystems. The research analyzes the evolution of public governance instruments for digitalization—from e-government to digital statehood models focused on digital resilience and platform-based approaches. Based on analysis of real-world cases of public sector digital modernization across different countries, the study confirms that effective public governance of digital transformation requires a comprehensive approach that accounts for the systemic nature of transformational processes. The research demonstrates that the transitive model of digital statehood creates a methodological foundation for proactive responses to digital era challenges through vertical integration of artificial intelligence systems and distributed ledgers into mechanisms of strategic planning and institutional adaptation.
This study examines how decentralized financial flows - including blockchain technologies, cryptocurrencies, fintech platforms, and central bank digital currencies - have influenced economic integration in post-Soviet countries from 2000 to 2025. Framed within the broader processes of digital transformation and institutional change, the research addresses the demand for alternative financial infrastructure in transitional economies. Employing a mixed-methods approach, it combines cross-country analysis with case studies to assess digital infrastructure, regulatory adaptation, financial inclusion, and DeFi adoption. Findings show that while digital connectivity has increased, decentralized finance usage varies based on institutional and socio-economic conditions. Countries facing financial shocks often adopted DeFi from the bottom up, while others pursued top-down regulatory strategies. The study concludes that decentralized finance is already enhancing integration by improving access to payments, savings, and public services.
This study aims to understand the effect of bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals (inflation, exchange rate, BI Rate, money supply, and IDX) on the LQ45 index. The type of data used in this study is secondary data in the form of time series with a research period of January 2018 to December 2022. The data in this study consisted of quantitative data. The data analysis technique applies multiple linear regression which is processed using SPSS version 25. The results state that bitcoin has a negative effect on the LQ45 index, inflation has a positive effect on the LQ45 index, exchange rate has a negative effect on the LQ45 index, BI Rate has a negative effect on the LQ45 index, money supply has a negative effect on the LQ45 index, IDX has a positive effect on the LQ45 index.
This article discusses the current topic of the use of blockchain technologies in the digital economy. The study is based on an analysis of existing research and publications, as well as on the consideration of examples of the use of blockchain in various business areas. The main purpose of the work is to identify the challenges and prospects of using blockchain, as well as to assess its impact on economic processes. The advantages and disadvantages of using blockchain are discussed in detail, as well as recommendations for its effective implementation. In conclusion, the conclusions about the potential of blockchain technologies for the transformation of the digital economy and identifies possible areas for further research.
This article examines the transformative landscape of financial data integration technologies and their collective impact on the financial services industry. The comprehensive exploration covers three pivotal developments reshaping the sector: Open Banking and API standardization, real-time data streaming with AI analytics, and data fabric architecture. Each innovation addresses specific challenges within the financial ecosystem while contributing to a more connected, intelligent, and responsive financial infrastructure. The article details how regulatory frameworks drive adoption, technical standards ensure implementation success, and emerging architectures enable unprecedented capabilities. By investigating the convergence of these technologies and emerging trends, including semantic interoperability, quantum computing applications, and decentralized finance integration, the article provides a forward-looking perspective on how financial institutions can leverage integrated data solutions to gain competitive advantages while navigating complex regulatory requirements and evolving customer expectations.
М. А. Абрамова, С. В. Криворучко, Oleg V. Lunyakov, Алим Борисович Фиапшев
The sphere of decentralized finance is the subject of widespread debate as the ways of providing services in the financial market. Using distributed registry technologies, smart contacts and a decentralized format of cooperation, it is capable, to a certain extent, of replacing traditional financial intermediaries in some product segments of the financial market. The authors set the task of identifying possible markers of liquidity flow into the sphere of decentralized finance, as well as assessing the scale and dynamics of its development compared with segments of the financial sector of the economy. The purpose of the study is to form a system of comparable indicators, based on which national regulators will be able to objectively assess the scale and dynamics of development of the DeFi sector. To achieve the goal, the article conducted a quantitative analysis of the relationship between changes in the money supply and the total value locked of crypto assets in the DeFi sector; a comparative analysis of various segments of the DeFi sphere and the financial sector of the economy was carried out. As the main methods, the authors used methods of regression analysis, systemic and logical methods, induction and deduction, methods of economic statistics, which made it possible to identify tendencies in the development of the sphere of decentralized finance against the background of indicators of development of the financial sector of the economy. The source data consisted of statistical databases on key indicators of the development of the financial sector of the economy at the international level, as well as databases on services provided by participants of decentralized finance. As a result of the study, the impact of changes in money supply on total value locked in DeFi is evaluated, as well as tendencies and scale of development of the sphere of decentralized finance in comparable indicators of the financial sector of the economy are identified. It is concluded that the scale of the current development of decentralized finance is not significant. However, according to a number of comparable indicators, this sphere already represents a certain parity with the financial sector of the economy. First of all, this applies to the trading turnover of decentralized exchanges and the volume of trading in crypto derivatives. The results of the study can be used by national regulators when assessing the scale of development of the sphere of decentralized finance under certain monetary and financial conditions.
This study considers inflationary processes and trends occurring in the modern Russian economy. The relevance of the topic under consideration is conditioned by the next round of inflationary rally, which began in 2022, and the Bank of Russia forecasts promise to slow down and stop it not earlier than 2027. The scientific analysis includes a step-by-step analysis of theoretical inflationary factors and consideration of practical aspects of such volatility in dramatic micro and macroeconomic mass-schemes. The key problems identified in the study include the lack of coordination of actions of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia. It also raises the question of the difficulties faced by financial intermediaries and economic entities in the conditions of permanent high inflation, and its extension to inflationary expectations of centralized and decentralized finance. This study aims to analyze and summarize the tight monetary factors accompanying the inertial braking path of inflation and contributing to the seamless cooling of the economy, to develop strategies aimed at targeting the Bank of Russia's stated 4%. The final results of the study substantiate the significance of the role of the Bank of Russia as a regulator of monetary policy, emphasize the conditions and main measures for the implementation of the DCP, and highlight their conceptual problems. The study is based on the analysis of foreign and Russian publications, as well as on the statistical conclusions of financial and statistical data.
Anton Krivonogov, K. Starodubov, Alexander Prokofyev, Yuri Gromov
The article is devoted to the issue of sustainability of blockchain systems and their impact on the functioning of smart contracts that automate complex processes. An approach to determining the initial stability of a blockchain system is proposed, which includes the assessment of operational and technical parameters of the blockchain system using the method of direct expert evaluation. The proposed approach is tested on the example of the blockchain Ethereum.
Open access
Economic and Technological Systems Analysis
Digitalization and Economic Development in Agriculture