A Research Program on the Gift as Economic Primitive, and the Register of Everything That Could Show It Wrong This document states a research program and the conditions under which it should be abandoned. The program's hard core is a single claim about direction: that value can be organized to move only forward — from giver to receiver to the next receiver — and that a system built on that constraint circulates better than one that permits return to the source. Four chapters name the ways the core can break: whether receiving creates the capacity to give, whether the constraint survives a change of currency, whether it survives past the family, and whether it survives the giver. Each chapter is attached to pre-registered predictions, published here as a register of sixty-six items with their falsifiers, their instruments, and their status. The program is published at a deliberate moment: almost nothing in it has been run. Two desk censuses have returned results, both null or partial-null. There have been no field tests. The first is gated on a product launch in August 2027. A register published after the data arrives cannot be distinguished from a register assembled to fit it; this one is published while the outcome is unknown, which is the only condition under which it constitutes evidence of anything. --- Provenance. This paper is part of the THonly research corpus, dedicated to the public domain under CC0 1.0. The canonical version is at https://thonly.org/research/which-way-value-moves. Its SHA-256 is 89dfd48398c1c23ec6613ae953a3b326a469f8a14e76258fcdabc46fea156d5b, independently timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps and signed under RFC 3161 by three trust authorities, one of them eIDAS-qualified. AI co-authorship is disclosed. Miss Aquarius is the consistent name used for the AI collaboration across all venues.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket are increasingly cited as real-time probability estimates for financial outcomes, yet it remains unknown whether their prices are consistent with the risk-neutral probabilities implied by options markets pricing the same events. Using 2,671 daily observations across 24 Gold and Silver CME futures threshold contracts over a six-month period, this paper finds that Polymarket systematically overprices the upside relative to Black-76 implied probabilities by 8.9 percentage points for Gold and 5.3 percentage points for Silver, a finding robust to seven independent checks and consistent in direction with a contemporaneous independent study on Bitcoin threshold contracts. The divergence exhibits AR(1) half-lives under three days, narrows significantly as expiry approaches, and cannot be fully explained by transaction costs or the commodity risk premium. These results suggest systematic mispricing in prediction market binary threshold contracts, though the observed magnitudes should be interpreted as upper bounds on behavioural mispricing given the structural wedge between risk-neutral and real-world probability measures.
Saskia Hufnagel, Colin King, Alina-Theresa Schnedl, Milind Tiwari
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) bring many opportunities for artists, investors, and creators, but they also have a dark side with significant potential for use in financial crimes. Drawing on relevant caselaw, a systematic review and topic modeling of literature, we map common examples of NFT-related crime, including fraud, money laundering, theft, and market-related offenses. This empirical review lays the groundwork for the core contribution of this article, that is, application of the “crime triangle” to NFT-related crime. Recognizing heterogeneity in NFT-related crime, we detail five scenarios where such crime can occur and analyze these in the context of the crime triangle (inner and outer). This enables us to identify potential gaps and vulnerabilities in current crime prevention strategies. Given challenges in policing cybercrime, and specifically NFT-related crime, we argue that the crime triangle provides a useful heuristic tool for understanding the nature of NFT-related crime and for preventing such crime from happening.
This study examines the transformation of artistic ownership in fine arts through blockchain-based non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It explores how NFTs reshape traditional systems of provenance, authenticity, and value creation by decentralising ownership verification and embedding transaction records within blockchain infrastructure. Using a qualitative research design based on secondary data analysis, the study synthesises findings from academic literature, industry reports, and case studies of NFT marketplaces and institutional adoption. The analysis is grounded in Actor-Network Theory, Institutional Theory, and Cultural Economics, enabling a multidimensional interpretation of technological, institutional, and economic change. Findings indicate that NFTs reconfigure artistic ownership through programmable smart contracts, disrupt traditional intermediary roles in the art world, and introduce new forms of digital scarcity that drive speculative valuation. However, challenges such as regulatory ambiguity, environmental concerns, and market volatility remain significant. The study concludes that NFTs represent not merely a technological innovation but a structural transformation of ownership systems in contemporary fine arts. Keywords: Blockchain, NFTs, Artistic Ownership, Fine Arts, Digital Art Markets, Cultural Economics, Institutional Change
Rahman Najia, Mahbub Md. Seratul, Amin Md. Ruhul, Kazi Abdul Mannan
The rapid expansion of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has transformed the digital art ecosystem by enabling decentralised ownership, new economic models, and global market access for artists and collectors. However, the sustainability of NFT-based art remains highly contested, particularly in relation to environmental, economic, and social dimensions. This study investigates stakeholder perceptions of sustainability in NFT-based art through a qualitative analysis of secondary data, including academic literature, industry reports, and documented narratives of artists and collectors. Grounded in socio-technical systems theory and sustainability transition theory, the study explores how technological developments, market dynamics, and social discourses shape sustainability perceptions. The findings reveal a complex and often contradictory landscape: while NFTs are perceived as empowering tools that enhance artistic autonomy and financial opportunities, they are also criticised for their environmental impact, speculative nature, and ethical challenges. Technological innovations such as proof-of-stake mechanisms and green NFTs are gradually reshaping perceptions, though scepticism persists. The study concludes that sustainability in NFT-based art is a socially constructed and evolving concept requiring integrated technological, economic, and social approaches. Keywords NFT art; sustainability perception; blockchain technology; digital art economy; green NFTs; socio-technical systems; sustainability transition
How do art entrepreneurs make decisions about adopting blockchain technologies? This study examines the link between non-fungible token (NFT) adoption and business outcomes. Through survey data from 35 Czech art market stakeholders, including curators, art dealers and galleries, we investigate the strategic decision to adopt NFT technology through the lens of digital entrepreneurship and digital affordance theory. Our results highlight the potential of NFTs in addressing historical challenges of the art industry, such as provenance tracking, authenticity verification and transaction transparency while also identifying challenges and adoption barriers, such as regulatory uncertainties. We also show that while respondents rate blockchain systems as potentially useful, the actual NFT adoption rate remains low. These findings provide actionable insights for stakeholders and contribute to entrepreneurship literature by investigating entrepreneurial decision-making in markets adopting digital innovations.
By blurring the boundary between art and financial assets, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have created regulatory ambiguity and criminogenic vulnerabilities in digital markets. The article applies the Howey Test to an original dataset of NFT-related cases that involve financial crime. As it turns out, functionally NFTs often resemble securities: they are characterized by information asymmetries, speculative dynamics, and weak oversight. These structural gaps make NFTs attractive to facilitate fraud, money laundering, wash trading, and nefarious exploitation on decentralized platforms and incidentally by way of traditional auction houses. NFTs highlight systemic limitations of analog regulatory frameworks to contain criminogenic risk posed by virtual assets. To enhance transparency, accountability, and consumer protection in evolving digital economies, the article concludes on a paradigm shift toward an adaptive, outcomes-based regulatory approach.
Australia's Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Amendment Act 2024 (Cth), effective 1 July 2026, extends the national AML/CTF regime to designated non-financial businesses and professions. While art dealers are not expressly targeted by the reforms, the statutory definitions give rise to significant interpretive challenges at the intersection of art law and the regulatory framework, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the art market. This article critically examines three such challenges: the historical artist versus artisan distinction embedded in the legislation's reference to "goldsmith's or silversmith's wares"; the functional classification of objects that straddle the boundary between fine art and decorative art; and the degree of physical attachment required for an artwork to constitute a "precious product" by virtue of its material composition. The article further considers the extension of the regime to virtual assets, including non-fungible tokens, and its implications for digital art transactions. It concludes that the current definitional framework risks producing arbitrary regulatory outcomes, capturing certain art objects while excluding others of comparable money laundering risk, and recommends that art market participants adopt a precautionary compliance approach (including robust know your client procedures and readiness to satisfy designated services obligations) pending further regulatory guidance from AUSTRAC.
This research paper delves into the evolving domain of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) within the unique backdrop of India’s art and entertainment industry, a realm where NFTs have garnered global attention as a novel digital asset class enabling the tokenization and ownership of distinct digital content. The paper’s key focus areas are threefold: First, it will scrutinize the legal framework governing NFTs in India, including existing laws, regulations, legal status, copyright, intellectual property, and taxation aspects, offering comparative insights from international NFT regulations. Second, the study will assess the economic implications of NFTs on artists, creators, and collectors, evaluating benefits, challenges, and illustrative case studies, while also delving into NFT market dynamics, trends, and the roles of key players and platforms. Third, it will explore the cultural and artistic implications of NFTs, examining their influence on artistic creation and the preservation of cultural heritage, as well as their impact on the relationship between traditional and digital art forms in India. Furthermore, the research will discuss future prospects and challenges within the Indian NFT landscape, considering potential developments, risks, and uncertainties, and offering recommendations for policymakers, artists, and industry participants. In conclusion, this research aims to illuminate the legal and economic facets of NFTs in India’s art and entertainment industry, fostering a deeper understanding of NFT implications for diverse stakeholders and providing invaluable guidance for navigating this dynamic landscape. This research endeavour aims to illuminate the legal and economic facets of NFTs in India’s art and entertainment industry. By offering a comprehensive analysis of the present state and future prospects, this paper provides valuable insights for stakeholders navigating this evolving NFT landscape. It also contributes to a deeper understanding of NFT implications for India’s cultural and artistic heritage, offering guidance for informed decision-making in this emerging digital era.
The digital art blistering phenomenon has transformed the manner in which art is produced and contextualized in the art markets in the world, though it has occasioned concerns that border issues of ownership, authenticity and provenance which are horrifyingly questioned. Easy reproduction, editing and re transmission, and proving the authorship and protecting of the artists is difficult in digital art. The provided paper explores the possibility of the blockchain technology being a secure and open method of controlling the ownership of the digital art object and enhancing the authenticity records. Blockchain helps in the creation of verifiable histories of digital assets that cannot be changed and this is done by allowing decentralized ledger keeping, cryptographic hash and smart contracts to be used to create the records. The article also involves the research of blockchain-based systems in particular with the involvement of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) as the embodiment of a unique digital piece of art. It proposes a theoretical model that entails artist registration, tokenization of artwork, ownership tracking, and verifications to ensure the safety of provenance and authenticity. The implementation plan will outline the process of the implementation of a blockchain-based tool, namely, the decentralized storage and the automation of smart contracts, which will allow facilitating an effective transaction and the payment of royalty. Furthermore, a comparison of the advantages of introducing blockchain-based systems over traditional models of art ownership is described in terms of the security, transparency, and accessibility. The paper does list such problems as scalability, regulatory uncertainty and environmental issues, despite these advantages. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that blockchain technology can change the digital art ecosystems which provide a reliable platform of ownership verification and empowering artists, and also emphasize the need to conduct further research and sustainable development.
The digital art and collectibles industries are undergoing a significant transformation due to a phenomenon known as Non-fungible Tokens (NFTs). Enabled by smart contracts on a blockchain, NFTs thus provide creators with unparalleled control. They can be used to indicate the ownership of any unique object by serving as a deed for that item, whether it exists in the physical or digital world. This research aims to shed light on various obstacles to the widespread adoption of NFTs. A semi-structured interview was conducted with customers of NFT marketplaces to draw out valuable insights across diverse scenarios. The interview method has been utilized to observe and assess the perspectives of individuals who have engaged in marketplace transactions. Furthermore, a cognitive walkthrough was executed to evaluate the marketplace’s usability from a newcomer’s viewpoint. The insights gathered from the interviews and cognitive evaluation have pinpointed significant pain points and opportunities for improvement. The findings show that both experienced users and newcomers are seeking enhancements to the marketplaces before they are willing to embrace this technology on a larger scale. Their recommendations vary from ensuring safer ecosystem development to improving user interfaces. We present a review of our findings from multiple angles, addressing areas where challenges are evident and we suggest potential modifications to boost the promotion of NFTs. In conclusion, based on our results, we recommend an ideal design along with several essential strategies akin to other standard applications that could be implemented in the markets for greater acceptance.
NFT (Non-Fungible Token) art, fueled by blockchain technology and its connection to virtual currencies, gained significant attention beyond the art world. However, after peaking in 2021, interest and trading activity declined and eventually stagnated. This study examines the research landscape and market dynamics of the NFT art system from a systemic perspective, proposing future research directions. We utilize the Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC) and the concept of the Chasm, compiling abstracts of 153 Scopus-indexed articles up to October 2024, along with market data from various platforms. Using VOSviewer, we categorize the literature by research type while analyzing transaction data.Our findings reveal that prior research on the NFT art market predominantly focuses on the pre-chasm stage of the TALC, highlighting the innovative nature of digital art as a medium of exchange and the decentralization it promotes. Based on these results, we recommend that future studies investigate the reasons behind the stagnation of the NFT art market, particularly by addressing the challenges of valuing intangible assets from the perspective of market stakeholders. Furthermore, additional research should explore system-level strategies that can enhance broader adoption and support the sustainable growth of NFT art.
This paper presents an analysis of five years (2021 - 2025) of conference discourse across six digital art conferences, aiming to trace thematic shifts associated with the rapid development of emerging technologies, namely artificial intelligence (AI), immersive technologies (including XR and the metaverse), and blockchain technologies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The results indicate a marked increase in AI-related contributions, while immersive technologies maintain a relatively stable share of the discourse, and blockchain- and NFT-based works remain marginal. Overall, whereas immersive technologies and blockchain-related topics exhibit relative stability, AI shows a significant rise after 2022, emerging as a dominant theme within digital art conference discourse.
This study examines the pricing dynamics of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) in the secondary market using advanced machine-learning techniques. We construct a large dataset of Ethereum-based NFT transactions initially comprising over 500,000 raw blockchain observations spanning multiple NFT segments, including art, collectibles, gaming, metaverse, and utility assets, over the period from November 2018 to March 2023. Following data preprocessing, synchronization across data sources, and the construction of history-dependent features, the analysis focuses on a final analytical sample of approximately 70,000 transactions. To address the challenges of non-fungibility, thin trading, and high price dispersion, we develop an interpretable predictive framework that integrates domain-informed manual feature engineering, automated Deep Feature Synthesis, and dimensionality reduction via Principal Component Analysis. Three non-linear models—Random Forest, XGBoost, and a Multilayer Perceptron—are trained and evaluated using both random and time-aware validation strategies. The results indicate that XGBoost consistently achieves the highest predictive accuracy, both overall and across individual NFT segments, while historical transaction prices emerge as the dominant predictor of future prices. Segment-level analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in predictability, with art and collectible NFTs exhibiting more stable pricing patterns than gaming and metaverse assets. Overall, the findings highlight strong path dependence and reputation-driven valuation in NFT markets and demonstrate that carefully designed machine-learning models can deliver high predictive performance without sacrificing economic interpretability.
Abstract NFTs or non-fungible tokens are digital assets stored on a blockchain. They can be traded or exchanged for money, cryptocurrencies or other NFTs. Examples include works of art and digital or other tokenised collectables. An important determinant of price for collectables is rarity within a collection. Many trading platforms offer to rank items in terms of rarity but rankings differ considerably and, often, little explanation is given of the methods used. This paper provides a mathematical framework for the analysis of a comprehensive class of collections. It examines individual and joint distributions of attributes over such collections, and shows how these can be combined to provide a rarity ranking for all items in the collection. There is, however, only a limited range of methods that give consistent results over different collections. These are identified as belonging to a one-parameter family of ranking functions. Each gives to every item of a collection a rarity score that is directly comparable between collections. Despite taking account of all possible combinations of attributes when ranking, the method is nonetheless computationally feasible.
Do online narratives leave a measurable imprint on prices in markets for digital or cultural goods? This paper evaluates how community attention and sentiment relate to valuation in major Ethereum NFT collections after accounting for time effects, market-wide conditions, and persistent visual heterogeneity. Transaction data for large generative collections are merged with Reddit-based discourse measures available for 25 collections, covering 87{,}696 secondary-market sales from January 2021 through March 2025. Visual differences are absorbed by a transparent, within-collection standardized index built from explicit image traits and aggregated via PCA. Discourse is summarized at the collection-by-bin level using discussion intensity and lexicon-based tone measures, with smoothing to reduce noise when text volume is sparse. A mixed-effects specification with a Mundlak within--between decomposition separates persistent cross-collection differences from within-collection fluctuations. Valuations align most strongly with sustained collection-level attention and sentiment environments; within collections, short-horizon negativity is consistently associated with higher prices, and attention is most informative when measured as cumulative engagement over multiple prior windows.
Open access
3 source records
econ.GN
Consumer Behavior in Brand Consumption and Identification
Distributed by Grasshopper Film, 12 East 32nd St., 4th Floor, New York, NY 10016Produced by Nicholas Bruckman, Shawn Hazelett, and Rahilla ZafarDirected by Nicholas Bruckman2024, Streaming, 77 mins Minted: The Rise (And Fall?) of the NFT, directed by Nicholas Bruckman, focuses on the explosive growth of the NFT (non-fungible token) digital art market in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Bruckman introduces how NFTs are situated within broader conversations about creativity, ownership, and value in digital environments. Using interviews with artists, collectors, technologists, and cultural critics, the viewer is asked to consider how NFTs are not simply a speculative trend, but rather a disruption, a way to represent artwork as a token for transactions that bypass traditional intermediaries in the art world (like galleries and museums). The strength of the film is Bruckman’s highlighting of the experiences of artists with new opportunities for visibility and economic independence through their NFTs. Notably, the documentary amplifies the perspectives of some female and BIPOC creators, framing NFTs as a space that seems to offer alternatives to the exclusionary and gatekeeping structures of the traditional art market. While the film highlights these voices, it stops short of fully examining whether the NFT ecosystem dismantled or merely reproduced the existing inequities within the art world. Minted is a timely film for conversations about digital literacy, information ethics, and the economics of creative labor. While the documentary does not offer a comprehensive critique of blockchain systems, it is successful as a snapshot of a significant cultural moment and a useful prompt for viewers to question the intersections of art, technology, and society. Awards:SXSW, Audience Award; Next Generation Indie Film Awards, Best Documentary Feature; Cordillera International Film Festival, Grand Jury Award for Best Documentary
Min-Bin Lin, Bingling Wang, Fabian Y R P Bocart, Christian M Hafner · 5 authors
Abstract The market of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), driven by blockchain and smart contracts, provides both artists and art collectors an unprecedented marketplace with more security, flexibility, publicity, and freedom to monetize. Yet, the emergence of such a market has been considered to be packed with speculation and economic uncertainty, given the limited understanding towards this market. To provide a precise depiction of the NFT art market and gauge market volatility, we construct the Digital Art Index, a novel price index using hedonic regression on the top 10 liquid NFT art collections (as of 2023). Addressing artwork price inequality, which often disrupts the price discovery process, this paper introduces two innovative alternative methods: Huberization and score-based filtering. These methods effectively mitigate the influence of outliers, particularly in an emerging market with limited accessible observations. In conclusion, the NFT art market presents significant opportunities for large gains, which are often favoured by risk-takers, but also carries the potential for significant losses. Its pricing is necessarily determined by institutional creators and platforms, meaning that solo artists may not benefit significantly in the current market environment.
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are widely used to distribute and authenticate digital artworks, yet minting practices across Ethereum, Solana, and Tezos sometimes diverge from core blockchain objectives, decentralization, immutability, and verifiable on-chain identity, thereby limiting their suitability as long-term certificates of authenticity. This study examines the technical, structural, and archival sources of these limitations and introduces a framework grounded in immutability, extended metadata and cryptographic signatures. Within this framework, the extended metadata file serves as the primary source of authenticity by self-sufficiently integrating the artist’s identity, artwork identification, edition semantics, token identification, and preservation guidance. The paper further evaluates decentralized storage models relevant to certification-grade use cases. It compares private servers, fully on-chain metadata, Arweave, and IPFS in terms of verifiability, sustainability, and long-horizon stewardship burden. Although Ethereum's ERC-721 serves as a reference implementation to anchor terminology and verification procedures, the proposed requirements are ecosystem-independent as long as the ecosystem meets the principles of decentralization, immutability and adoption. By aligning NFT issuance with established digital-preservation frameworks (OAIS, InterPARES, LOCKSS, PREMIS), this work offers a concrete foundation for future ERC/EIP proposals, preservation policy, and interdisciplinary research on durable, independently verifiable digital-art authenticity.
We assess the cross-sectional relation between media coverage and cryptocurrency returns using 7.6 million news articles from a large-scale web corpus. We find that cryptocurrencies with no coverage earn higher risk-adjusted returns than those with high coverage. By decomposing coverage intensity into coverage breadth and novelty, we separate the dissemination of existing information from the arrival of new information. We show that media coverage combines two offsetting channels: breadth captures an attention-driven channel that predicts lower future returns, while novelty captures an information channel that predicts higher future returns. Our findings highlight the role of information diffusion in cryptocurrency returns.
This paper examines the relationship between hype-driven sentiment and Bitcoin price movements using a data-driven approach. Public interest is proxied through Google Trends data, while market performance is measured using historical Bitcoin returns. The study finds no significant contemporaneous relationship between sentiment and returns. However, a weak negative relationship is observed between current sentiment and future returns, suggesting that periods of heightened public attention may precede market corrections. These findings indicate that hype does not drive immediate price movements but may act as a contrarian indicator of short-term market dynamics.
This study revisits calendar anomalies in cryptocurrency markets using hourly data for four actively traded cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether USDt, and BNB) and eight less active cryptocurrencies. While prior studies based on daily returns provide mixed evidence on day-of-the-week (DoW) effects, we show that these patterns are not persistent daily phenomena. Instead, they are driven by a limited number of intraday intervals and do not reflect broad daily behavior.We further document that these effects are localized, asset-specific, and more pronounced among actively traded cryptocurrencies, while largely absent among less active ones.Overall, the findings indicate that cryptocurrency markets exhibit limited and short-lived inefficiencies rather than persistent anomalies. This highlights the importance of employing high-frequency data in studies of continuously traded markets and suggests that digital asset investors may benefit from the presence of abnormal returns only in a limited number of hours on specific days of the week.
This paper documents a robust size-dependent pattern in cryptocurrency return predictability. Small coins exhibit strong short-term reversal, whereas large coins exhibit momentum, and the relation varies monotonically across the size distribution. We further show that these two sides of the pattern reflect different return dynamics: small-coin reversal is driven mainly by rebounds among recent losers, while large-coin momentum reflects their continued underperformance. Liquidity frictions and idiosyncratic volatility explain part of this pattern, but not all of it. These findings point to a "size-momentum puzzle" in cryptocurrencies.
The main objective of this paper is to outline the psychological aspects of trading in the music NFT (non-fungible tokens) ecosystem, with special emphasis on the psychological background of buying NFTs. Since the most important feature of NFTs is the acquisition of ownership enabled by technological solutions, we assume that each purchase of a token does not only imply an economic exchange of ownership, but also the activation of psychological ownership. Having in mind that psychological ownership is a relative category that depends, among other factors, on the nature of the target to which it is attached, our investigation is conceptual rather than empirical. By connecting the already identified cores of psychological ownership to the characteristics of some of the most prominent music NFT drops, we aim to theoretically define general dimensions of psychological ownership through which emotional and social connections to music NFTs as objects of ownership emerge. We conclude that the NFT market reinforces psychological ownership by providing consumers valuable outcomes. In terms of music NFTs, the concept of psychological ownership can be explained by several intertwined dimensions that create emotional and social connections and motivate users to purchase these digital goods. These include a sense of unique possession, identity and self-expression, a sense of belonging to a community, and investment opportunities. The NFT drops discussed illustrate how leveraging different aspects of psychological ownership can transform a music release into a special experience that reshapes the relationship between fans and musicians. Examining fans’ purchases of music NFTs from a psychological perspective can help musicians better understand blockchain users’ behaviour towards music, which is essential for developing NFTs into a sustainable digital format for music revenue.