Jakub Zwydak, Marcin Wątorek, Jarosław Kwapień, Stanisław Drożdż
Artificial transaction generation remains an important source of potential market manipulation on cryptocurrency exchanges, as it may distort reported liquidity and reduce market transparency. This study proposes a diagnostic framework for detecting unusual trading patterns based on complexity and statistical-structure measures derived from high-frequency trade-level data. The analysis considers log-returns, trading volume, and transaction counts, using tail distributions, autocorrelation functions, multifractal characteristics, approximate entropy, and detrended cross-correlations. The methodology is applied to BTC, ETH, and XRP traded on Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, and Kraken over the period from April 1 to June 30, 2025. The results reveal a pronounced anomaly on Bitget for BTC and ETH after mid-May 2025. The number of transactions increases sharply, but there is no proportional increase in traded volume or return fluctuations. This regime is characterised by numerous low-volume trades, weaker autocorrelations, reduced multifractal organisation, higher short-pattern irregularity, and weaker cross-correlations involving the transaction-count series. These features are consistent with a noise-like component in trading activity and may indicate artificially increased transaction counts, although they do not provide direct proof of wash trading. The findings show that complexity-based indicators can be useful for detecting exchange-specific trading anomalies that remain hidden in price-based measures.
Purpose This study develops a pricing and contract design framework for cryptocurrency catastrophe (CAT) bonds to transfer extreme crypto-native risks, including protocol exploits, exchange breaches and decentralized finance (DeFi) failures, to capital markets. The paper aims to address arbitrage-free valuation, sponsor-optimal contract design and trustless settlement under the unique informational and operational features of blockchain systems. Design/methodology/approach We propose a multi-trigger crypto CAT bond structure that jointly captures short-term catastrophic shocks and long-term systemic deterioration through oracle-reported loss metrics. An arbitrage-free valuation framework is developed under an incomplete market setting using the minimal martingale measure, while sponsor-optimal contract design is formulated under a dual-measure framework. Empirically, crypto loss dynamics are modeled using generalized extreme value distributions and copula-based dependence structures, whereas financial risk factors are modeled through ARIMA–GARCH and vine copulas. A smart-contract-enabled on-chain settlement architecture is further introduced to automate trigger evaluation and cash-flow execution. Findings Empirical results based on REKT crypto incident data demonstrate strong dependence between monthly extreme and aggregate losses, with heterogeneous dependence structures across blockchain ecosystems. Simulation studies show that trigger and principal repayment designs substantially affect bond price distributions and tail risk exposures. Conservative trigger structures generate more stable bond valuations, whereas aggressive structures exhibit greater downside dispersion. The proposed framework supports economically viable risk transfer while enabling transparent and timely settlement through blockchain-based execution. Originality/value This study develops, to the best of our knowledge, the first integrated framework for crypto native catastrophe bonds that combines arbitrage-free pricing, sponsor optimal contract design and smart contract-based on-chain settlement. Unlike traditional CAT bonds or cyber insurance-linked securities the proposed framework explicitly incorporates oracle-based observability, crypto-specific dependence structures and automated settlement, providing a novel mechanism for transferring systemic digital asset risks to capital markets.
Conventional cryptocurrency often leads to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions, while sustainable cryptocurrencies possess the potential to become a green alternative in portfolio management. This study aims to investigate the time-varying connectedness between sustainable cryptocurrency and green financial markets as well as hedging performance when facing market shocks, including COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war. TVP-VAR model with Fourier transform and Multivariate GARCH models are employed. The findings indicate that the pairwise connectedness between the sustainable cryptocurrencies and green financial markets has been at a low level, providing diversification benefits in investment portfolio. Besides, short-term connectedness dominates medium- and long-term connectedness. Sustainable cryptocurrencies show higher hedging effectiveness than traditional cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \sim t^β$ with $\hatβ\approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant distributional series, and develop three principled time-domain adaptations of the protocol. We find that (i) the distributional power law is rejected on UTXO balances and daily |returns|, with lognormal preferred decisively; (ii) the fitted time-domain exponent varies by nearly a factor of three across reasonable shifts of the time origin -- it is not specification-robust in the sense required for a shift-invariant structural reading; (iii) standard residual diagnostics and scale-invariance tests proposed in earlier work cannot distinguish a power law from a multi-component sigmoid stack fit to the same data; (iv) Bitcoin price stands apart in a cross-asset comparison spanning Bitcoin on-chain metrics and traditional asset classes: it is the only series in the nine-series in-sample test where no single-component growth curve improves on the power law, and the quarterly $K=3$ wave-stability bootstrap rejects the PL+AR(1) null on Bitcoin at $p = 0.015$ (strict 15% CV threshold) -- a clear cross-asset separation, although not a Bonferroni-robust rejection; and (v) walk-forward Diebold-Mariano evaluation against ten candidates -- including standard time-series baselines (RW with drift, auto-ARIMA, ETS, local-linear-trend) -- shows the in-sample winner (multi-sigmoid) is among the worst long-horizon forecasters, while the simple power law dominates 12-24 month horizons against every standard baseline at $p < 0.05$, precisely because it does not commit to specific wave shapes. The fit-prediction tradeoff is the practical counterpart of the descriptive findings.
Do cryptocurrency markets process infrastructure failures differently from regulatory shocks? We study both moments of the return distribution on one shared sample (50 events, six assets, 2019-2025), fitting a GJR-GARCH-X model under matched dependence-robust inference. We treat event inclusion as a measured design parameter: rather than asserting the selection-on-the-dependent-variable objection away, we trace the variance differential across the inclusion screen and measure the selection bias directly. The result is a scope condition -- under curated, high-salience identification the differential is sizeable ($4.88\times$) but selection-conditional: a mechanical impact filter on a broad reconstructed pool collapses it to $1.3$-$1.6\times$. Identification is half the story; inference is the other. The curated multiplier is not distinguishable from zero once cross-asset dependence and heavy tails are respected: a Student-$t$-copula CCC-GARCH-X bootstrap (our inference of record) returns $p \approx 0.32$, and because the six per-asset coefficients are strongly cross-correlated the contrast's effective sample size is nearer three than six (design-effect $p \approx 0.07$-$0.15$). A naive i.i.d. test had reported an apparently decisive fivefold effect, but that significance was an artefact: pseudoreplication across correlated assets compounded by a heavy-tail-misspecified bootstrap. The first moment tells the same story -- a $+7.19$ pp cumulative-abnormal-return difference a block bootstrap cannot distinguish from zero ($p = 0.283$). Under correct inference the asymmetry is directional but unresolved. The contribution is a portable inference toolkit -- an inference ladder and a Monte-Carlo size study -- for diagnosing how cross-asset event studies in heavy-tailed markets manufacture significance, demonstrated where it dissolves a fivefold result the author had himself published.
Do Ethereum's Layer-2 (L2) rollups actually decongest the Layer-1 (L1) mainnet once protocol upgrades and demand are held constant? Using a 1245-day daily panel from August 5, 2021 to December 31, 2024 that spans the London, Merge, and Dencun upgrades, we link Ethereum fee and congestion metrics to L2 user activity, macro-demand proxies, and targeted event indicators. We estimate a regime-aware error-correction model that treats posting-clean L2 user share as a continuous treatment. Over the pre-Dencun (London+Merge) window, a 10 percentage point increase in L2 adoption lowers median base fees by about 13% -- roughly 5 Gwei at pre-Dencun levels -- and deviations from the long-run relation decay with an 11-day half-life. Block utilization and a scarcity index show similar congestion relief. After Dencun, L2 adoption is already high and treatment support narrows, so blob-era estimates are statistically imprecise and we treat them as exploratory. The pre-Dencun window therefore delivers the first cross-regime causal estimate of how aggregate L2 adoption decongests Ethereum, together with a reusable template for monitoring rollup-centric scaling strategies.
Stanisław Drożdż, Paweł Jarosz, Jarosław Kwapień, Maria Skupień · 5 authors
Correlations in complex systems are often obscured by nonstationarity, long-range memory, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, which limit the usefulness of traditional covariance-based analyses. To address these challenges, we construct scale- and fluctuation-dependent correlation matrices using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρr that selectively emphasizes fluctuations of different amplitudes. We examine the spectral properties of these detrended correlation matrices and compare them to the spectral properties of the matrices calculated in the same way from synthetic Gaussian and q-Gaussian signals. Our results show that detrending, heavy tails, and the fluctuation-order parameter r jointly produce spectra, which substantially depart from the random case even under the absence of cross-correlations in time series. Applying this framework to one-minute returns of 140 major cryptocurrencies from 2021 to 2024 reveals robust collective modes, including a dominant market factor and several sectoral components whose strength depends on the analyzed scale and fluctuation order. After filtering out the market mode, the empirical eigenvalue bulk aligns closely with the limit of random detrended cross-correlations, enabling clear identification of structurally significant outliers. Overall, the study provides a refined spectral baseline for detrended cross-correlations and offers a promising tool for distinguishing genuine interdependencies from noise in complex, nonstationary, heavy-tailed systems.
South Korea faces the dual challenge of managing growing distributed solar energy surpluses and the high energy demand of industries like Bitcoin mining. Leveraging mining operations as a flexible load to monetize this `net-metering surplus' presents a viable synergy, but requires a robust site selection methodology. Traditional GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) struggles with subjective weighting and integrating heterogeneous spatial data (areal-level and lattice-level). This thesis develops and implements a Two-Stage Hierarchical Optimization framework to overcome these limitations. Stage 1 (Areal-Level) employs a cost-benefit optimization to determine the optimal number ($K^*$) and combination of regions, maximizing a final adjusted net profit by balancing surplus power revenue against detailed land and non-linear infrastructure costs. Stage 2 (Point-Level) then uses a GIS-based sliding window search within these selected regions, applying topographic (slope $< 6.0^\circ$) and land-use constraints at a 30m resolution to identify physically constructible `unit sites'. The model identified an optimal configuration of $K^*=3$ regions (Yongin, Damyang, Miryang) yielding a maximum potential net profit of approximately \$307 million. Crucially, the Stage 2 screening revealed that Yongin, the most profitable region, was also the most physically constrained, 87\% of sites filtered out. This research contributes a scalable, objective framework for energy infrastructure siting that effectively integrates multi-scale spatial data. It provides a data-driven strategy for policymakers and grid operators (like Korea Electric Power Corporation) to monetize curtailed renewables and enhance grid stability.
The third Bitcoin halving that took place in May 2020 cut down the mining reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block and thus slowed down the rate of issuance of new Bitcoins, making it more scarce. The fourth and most recent halving happened in April 2024, cutting the block reward further to 3.125 BTC. If the demand did not decrease simultaneously after these halvings, then the neoclassical economic theory posits that the price of Bitcoin should have increased due to the halving. But did it, in fact, increase for that reason, or is this a post hoc fallacy? This paper uses synthetic control to construct a weighted Bitcoin that is different from its counterpart in one aspect - it did not undergo halving. Comparing the price trajectory of the actual and the simulated Bitcoins, I find evidence of a positive effect of the 2024 Bitcoin halving on its price three months later. The magnitude of this effect is one fifth of the total percentage change in the price of Bitcoin during the study period - from April 2, 2023, to July 21, 2024 (17 months). The second part of the study fails to obtain a statistically significant and robust causal estimate of the effect of the 2020 Bitcoin halving on Bitcoin's price. This is the first paper analyzing the effect of halving causally, building on the existing body of correlational research.
Stanisław Drożdż, Robert Kluszczyński, Jarosław Kwapień, Marcin Wątorek
Multifractality in time series analysis characterizes the presence of multiple scaling exponents, indicating heterogeneous temporal structures and complex dynamical behaviors beyond simple monofractal models. In the context of digital currency markets, multifractal properties arise due to the interplay of long-range temporal correlations and heavy-tailed distributions of returns, reflecting intricate market microstructure and trader interactions. Incorporating multifractal analysis into the modeling of cryptocurrency price dynamics enhances the understanding of market inefficiencies, may improve volatility forecasting and facilitate the detection of critical transitions or regime shifts. Based on the multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) whose spacial case is the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), as the most commonly used practical tools for quantifying multifractality, in the present contribution a recently proposed method of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series was applied to the most representative instruments from the digital market. They include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), decentralized exchanges (DEX) and non-fungible tokens (NFT). The results indicate the significant role of heavy tails in generating a broad multifractal spectrum. However, they also clearly demonstrate that the primary source of multifractality are temporal correlations in the series, and without them, multifractality fades out. It appears characteristic that these temporal correlations, to a large extent, do not depend on the thickness of the tails of the fluctuation distribution. These observations, made here in the context of the digital currency market, provide a further strong argument for the validity of the proposed methodology of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series.
Financial fraud has been growing exponentially in recent years. The rise of cryptocurrencies as an investment asset has simultaneously seen a parallel growth in cryptocurrency scams. To detect possible cryptocurrency fraud, and in particular market manipulation, previous research focused on the detection of changes in the network of trades; however, market manipulators are now trading across multiple cryptocurrency platforms, making their detection more difficult. Hence, it is important to consider the identification of changes across several trading networks or a `network of networks' over time. To this end, in this article, we propose a new change-point detection method in the network structure of tensor-variate data. This new method, labeled TenSeg, first employs a tensor decomposition, and second detects multiple change-points in the second-order (cross-covariance or network) structure of the decomposed data. It allows for change-point detection in the presence of frequent changes of possibly small magnitudes and is computationally fast. We apply our method to several simulated datasets and to a cryptocurrency dataset, which consists of network tensor-variate data from the Ethereum blockchain. We demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms other state-of-the-art change-point techniques, and the detected change-points in the Ethereum data set coincide with changes across several trading networks or a `network of networks' over time. Finally, all the relevant \textsf{R} code implementing the method in the article are available on https://github.com/Anastasiou-Andreas/TenSeg.
Marcin Wątorek, Marija Bezbradica, Martin Crane, Jarosław Kwapień · 5 authors
Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales. The method employs $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MSTs) to visualize evolving network structures. Using minute-by-minute exchange rate data for 140 cryptocurrencies on Binance (Jan 2021-Oct 2024), a rolling window analysis reveals significant shifts in $q$MSTs, notably around April 2022 during the Terra/Luna crash. Initially centralized around Bitcoin (BTC), the network later decentralized, with Ethereum (ETH) and others gaining prominence. Spectral analysis confirms BTC's declining dominance and increased diversification among assets. A key finding is that medium-scale fluctuations exhibit stronger correlations than large-scale ones, with $q$MSTs based on the latter being more decentralized. Properly exploiting such facts may offer the possibility of a more flexible optimal portfolio construction. Distance metrics highlight that major disruptions amplify correlation differences, leading to fully decentralized structures during crashes. These results demonstrate $q$MSTs' effectiveness in uncovering fluctuation-dependent correlations, with potential applications beyond finance, including biology, social and other complex systems.
The power sector is responsible for 32 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Data centers and cryptocurrencies use significant amounts of electricity and contribute to these emissions. Demand-side flexibility of data centers is one possible approach for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from these industries. To explore this, we use novel data collected from the Bitcoin mining industry to investigate the impact of load flexibility on power system decarbonization. Employing engineered metrics to explore curtailment dynamics and emissions alignment, we provide the first empirical analysis of cryptocurrency data centers' capability for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in response to real-time grid signals. Our results highlight the importance of strategically aligning operational behaviors with emissions signals to maximize avoided emissions. These findings offer insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to enhance load flexibility and meet climate goals in these otherwise energy intensive data centers.
Bruno E. Holtz, Ricardo S. Ehlers, Adriano K. Suzuki, Francisco Louzada
Financial time series often exhibit skewness and heavy tails, making it essential to use models that incorporate these characteristics to ensure greater reliability in the results. Furthermore, allowing temporal variation in the skewness parameter can bring significant gains in the analysis of this type of series. However, for more robustness, it is crucial to develop models that balance flexibility and parsimony. In this paper, we propose dynamic skewness stochastic volatility models in the SMSN family (DynSSV-SMSN), using priors that penalize model complexity. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method via the \texttt{RStan} package. Simulation results demonstrated that penalizing priors present superior performance in several scenarios compared to the classical choices. In the empirical application to returns of cryptocurrencies, models with heavy tails and dynamic skewness provided a better fit to the data according to the DIC, WAIC, and LOO-CV information criteria.
Benjamin Gillen, Rashmi Ranjan Bhuyan, Gourab Mukherjee, Austin Pollok
The Ethereum blockchain plays a central role in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, enabling a wide range of financial activity through the use of smart contracts. This paper investigates how individual Ethereum wallets responded to the collapse of FTX, one of the largest centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. Moving beyond price-based event studies, we adopt a bottom-up approach using granular wallet-level data. We construct a representative sample of Ethereum addresses and analyze their transaction behavior before and after the collapse using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework. Our proposed framework addresses data scarcity in high-resolution wallet-level daily transactions by employing a calibrated zero-inflated generalized linear fixed effects model. Our analysis quantifies distinct shifts in transaction intensity and stablecoin usage, highlighting a flight to safety within the ecosystem. These findings underscore the value of a bottom-up methodology for quantifying the user-level impact of blockchain-based shocks, offering insights beyond traditional price-level analysis through wallet-level data.
Lévy processes are widely used in financial modeling due to their ability to capture discontinuities and heavy tails, which are common in high-frequency asset return data. However, parameter estimation remains a challenge when associated likelihoods are unavailable or costly to compute. We propose a fast and accurate method for Lévy parameter estimation using the neural Bayes estimation (NBE) framework -- a simulation-based, likelihood-free approach that leverages permutation-invariant neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators. We contribute new theoretical results, showing that NBE results in consistent estimators whose risk converges to the Bayes estimator under mild conditions. Moreover, through extensive simulations across several Lévy models, we show that NBE outperforms traditional methods in both accuracy and runtime, while also enabling two complementary approaches to uncertainty quantification. We illustrate our approach on a challenging high-frequency cryptocurrency return dataset, where the method captures evolving parameter dynamics and delivers reliable and interpretable inference at a fraction of the computational cost of traditional methods. NBE provides a scalable and practical solution for inference in complex financial models, enabling parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification over an entire year of data in just seconds. We additionally investigate nearly a decade of high-frequency Bitcoin returns, requiring less than one minute to estimate parameters under the proposed approach.
This study examines the feasibility and profitability of utilizing surplus electricity for Bitcoin mining. Surplus electricity refers to the remaining electricity after net metering, which can be repurposed for Bitcoin mining to improve Korea Electric Power Corporation's (KEPCO) energy resource efficiency and alleviate its debt challenges. Net metering (or net energy metering) is an electricity billing mechanism that allows consumers who generate some or all of their own electricity to use that electricity when they want, rather than when it is produced. Using the latest Bitcoin miner, the Antminer S21 XP Hyd, the study evaluates daily Bitcoin mining when operating at 30,565 and 45,439 units, incorporating Bitcoin network hash rates to assess profitability. To examine profitability, the Random Forest Regressor and Long Short-Term Memory models were used to predict the Bitcoin price. The analysis shows that the use of excess electricity for Bitcoin mining not only generates economic revenue, but also minimizes energy loss, reduces debt, and resolves unsettled payment issues for KEPCO. This study empirically investigates and analyzes the integration of electricity surplus in South Korea with bitcoin mining for the first time. The findings highlight the potential to strengthen the financial stability of KEPCO and demonstrate the feasibility of Bitcoin mining. In addition, this research serves as a foundational resource for future advancements in the Bitcoin mining industry and the efficient use of energy resources.
We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of conditionally independent random variables. In particular, we show that the distribution of returns can be cast in a simple scaling form, and that its functional form is directly related to the distribution of the volatilities. This approach explains the presence of power-law tails in the returns as a direct consequence of the presence of a power law tail in the distribution of volatilities. It also provides the form of the distribution of Bitcoin returns, which behaves as a stretched exponential, as a consequence of the fact that the Bitcoin volatilities distribution is also closely described by a stretched exponential. We test our predictions with data from the S\&P 500 index, Apple and Paramount stocks; and Bitcoin.
Esam Mahdi, Carlos Martín-Barreiro, Xavier Cabezas
In this article, we introduce a novel deep learning hybrid model that integrates attention Transformer and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architectures to improve the accuracy of cryptocurrency price predictions. By combining the Transformer's strength in capturing long-range patterns with the GRU's ability to model short-term and sequential trends, the hybrid model provides a well-rounded approach to time series forecasting. We apply the model to predict the daily closing prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum based on historical data that include past prices, trading volumes, and the Fear and Greed index. We evaluate the performance of our proposed model by comparing it with four other machine learning models: two are non-sequential feedforward models: Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and two are bidirectional sequential memory-based models: Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). The performance of the model is assessed using several metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), along with statistical validation through the nonparametric Friedman test followed by a post hoc Wilcoxon signed rank test. The results demonstrate that our hybrid model consistently achieves superior accuracy, highlighting its effectiveness for financial prediction tasks. These findings provide valuable insights for improving real-time decision making in cryptocurrency markets and support the growing use of hybrid deep learning models in financial analytics.
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is an important metric that measures the total value a customer will bring to a business over their lifetime. The Beta Geometric Negative Binomial Distribution (BGNBD) and Gamma Gamma Distribution are two models that can be used to calculate CLV, taking into account both the frequency and value of customer transactions. This article explains the BGNBD and Gamma Gamma Distribution models, and how they can be used to calculate CLV for NFT (Non-Fungible Token) transaction data in a blockchain setting. By estimating the parameters of these models using historical transaction data, businesses can gain insights into the lifetime value of their customers and make data-driven decisions about marketing and customer retention strategies.
This paper distinguishes between risk resonance and risk diversification relationships in the cryptocurrency market based on the newly developed asymmetric breakpoint approach, and analyzes the risk propagation mechanism among cryptocurrencies under extreme events. In addition, through the lens of node association and network structure, this paper explores the dynamic evolutionary relationship of cryptocurrency risk association before and after the epidemic. In addition, the driving mechanism of the cryptocurrency risk movement is analyzed in a depth with the epidemic indicators. The findings show that the effect of propagation of risk among cryptocurrencies becomes more significant under the influence of the new crown outbreak. At the same time, the increase in the number of confirmed cases exacerbated the risk spillover effect among cryptocurrencies, while the risk resonance effect that exists between the crude oil market and the cryptocurrency market amplified the extent of the outbreak's impact on cryptocurrencies. However, other financial markets are relatively independent of the cryptocurrency market. This study proposes a strategy to deal with the spread of cryptocurrency risks from the perspective of a public health crisis, providing a useful reference basis for improving the regulatory mechanism of cryptocurrencies.
Marcin Wątorek, Marcin Królczyk, Jarosław Kwapień, Tomasz Stanisz · 5 authors
Multifractality is a concept that helps compactly grasping the most essential features of the financial dynamics. In its fully developed form, this concept applies to essentially all mature financial markets and even to more liquid cryptocurrencies traded on the centralized exchanges. A new element that adds complexity to cryptocurrency markets is the possibility of decentralized trading. Based on the extracted tick-by-tick transaction data from the Universal Router contract of the Uniswap decentralized exchange, from June 6, 2023, to June 30, 2024, the present study using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) shows that even though liquidity on these new exchanges is still much lower compared to centralized exchanges convincing traces of multifractality are already emerging on this new trading as well. The resulting multifractal spectra are however strongly left-side asymmetric which indicates that this multifractality comes primarily from large fluctuations and small ones are more of the uncorrelated noise type. What is particularly interesting here is the fact that multifractality is more developed for time series representing transaction volumes than rates of return. On the level of these larger events a trace of multifractal cross-correlations between the two characteristics is also observed.
This paper investigates the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR) and the growth rate of Bitcoin (BTC) volume. Our analysis utilizes dynamic panel data from 33 individual countries and the European economic region. Empirical results demonstrate that GPR has a significant positive impact on BTC volume growth, particularly in developing countries. Our results are confirmed by several robustness checks, like Lagged IV, and volatility check among others. Our study offers a new perspective on BTC, as the novelty of the data used helps us understand the dynamics of BTC volume.
The remarkable growth of digital assets, starting from the inception of Bitcoin in 2009 into a 1 trillion market in 2024, underscores the momentum behind disruptive technologies and the global appetite for digital assets. This paper develops a framework to enhance actuaries' understanding of the cyber risks associated with the developing digital asset ecosystem, as well as their measurement methods in the context of digital asset insurance. By integrating actuarial perspectives, we aim to enhance understanding and modeling of cyber risks at both the micro and systemic levels. The qualitative examination sheds light on blockchain technology and its associated risks, while our quantitative framework offers a rigorous approach to modeling cyber risks in digital asset insurance portfolios. This multifaceted approach serves three primary objectives: i) offer a clear and accessible education on the evolving digital asset ecosystem and the diverse spectrum of cyber risks it entails; ii) develop a scientifically rigorous framework for quantifying cyber risks in the digital asset ecosystem; iii) provide practical applications, including pricing strategies and tail risk management. Particularly, we develop frequency-severity models based on real loss data for pricing cyber risks in digit assets and utilize Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the tail risks, offering practical insights for risk management strategies. As digital assets continue to reshape finance, our work serves as a foundational step towards safeguarding the integrity and stability of this rapidly evolving landscape.