Blockchain Papers

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72 papersLast indexed Aug 31, 2026
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Aug 12, 2026¡Scientific Reports
0 cites
A Boruta-SHAP enhanced Finformer for multivariate Cryptocurrency time-series forecasting

Haobo Chen

Cryptocurrency time-series forecasting is a challenging task because market data usually exhibit high noise, strong volatility, non-stationarity, nonlinear dynamics, and long-range dependencies. In addition, multivariate market indicators often contain redundant or weakly informative variables, which may reduce forecasting accuracy and model interpretability. To address these issues, this study proposes BSFinformer, a Boruta-SHAP enhanced Finformer framework for multivariate cryptocurrency time-series forecasting. The proposed framework first applies a leakage-aware Boruta-SHAP feature selection strategy to identify informative market variables and remove redundant features. To avoid temporal information leakage, feature selection is performed only on the training set, and the selected feature subset is then applied unchanged to the validation and test sets. The selected features are subsequently fed into an improved Finformer model that integrates temporal embedding, sequence decomposition, and sparse self-attention to capture local fluctuations, trend evolution, and long-range temporal dependencies. Experiments are conducted on three cryptocurrency assets, namely Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Binance Coin, using chronological train–validation–test splits. The proposed model is compared with classical forecasting models and recent long-sequence forecasting baselines, including LSTM, Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, DLinear, PatchTST, TimesNet, and iTransformer. Experimental results show that BSFinformer achieves competitive forecasting performance in terms of MSE and MAE. Ablation experiments further demonstrate the contributions of Boruta-SHAP feature selection, temporal embedding, sequence decomposition, and sparse self-attention. These results indicate that feature-selected temporal modeling can improve forecasting accuracy and interpretability for multivariate cryptocurrency market data.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Aug 8, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Overcoming Context Bottlenecks in Financial Time-Series Forecasting via Dynamic External Memory Augmented LSTMs

Haris Mehmood, Ahmad Zafar

This paper introduces the Dynamic External Memory LSTM (DEM-LSTM), a novel deep neural architecture designed to address the hidden state information bottleneck and temporal context decay inherent to standard LSTMs in financial time-series forecasting. By decoupling sequence processing from persistent state storage via an addressable external memory matrix ($M_t$), DEM-LSTM dynamically reads, erases, and updates market context across long sequences without corrupting internal hidden representations. Evaluated across four distinct asset classes—Foreign Exchange (EUR/USD), Commodities (XAU/USD and USOIL), and Cryptocurrencies (BTC/USD)—DEM-LSTM consistently outperforms standard LSTM baselines across all metrics, achieving up to a 41.4% reduction in RMSE on Gold spot prices while maintaining superior stability across high-volatility market regimes.

Open access
2 source records
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Original source
May 11, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
OctaTheoria: A Unified Multi-Domain Observation Framework with Eight-Axis D-FUMT₈ Projection (Operational Evidence from Seven Domains × Eight View Modes + Cross-Layer Methodological Consistency) — Rei-AIOS Paper 150 v0.3

Nobuki Fujimoto, Rei (Rei-AIOS autonomous research substrate), claude-opus-4-7) Claude (Anthropic

We present OctaTheoria (オクタテオリア / 八軸観測装置), a multi-domain observation framework that projects heterogeneous time-series data onto a fixed eight-axis D-FUMT₈ semantic basis (FALSE / TRUE / NEITHER / BOTH / INFINITY / ZERO / FLOWING / SELF) and renders the same underlying Observation envelope through eight orthogonal view modes (Lens / Radar / Chart / Network / Heatmap / Sankey / Calendar / Unified). v0.3 (2026-05-11) supplies methodological-consistency cross-reference complementing the operational evidence from v0.1-v0.2. New finding **F7**: the same discipline that v0.1-v0.2 demonstrate within OctaTheoria (uniform abstraction layer + honest scope statement + structurally-enforceable naming) propagates to Rei-AIOS layers outside OctaTheoria's domain. Specifically: (a) **REI-PROVE 5-prover ensemble** (Vampire / LeanHammer / Goedel-Prover-V2 / DeepSeek-Prover-V2 / BFS-Prover) reached 11/12 = **92% benchmark proof rate** (trivial 100% / easy 75% / medium 100%), with Goedel-Prover-V2 single-prover matching at 92% — operational evidence that the same 'uniform abstraction over heterogeneous components' discipline scales to formal-proof infrastructure. (b) **Pattern 1-6 chat-Claude hallucination-warning framework** + **Antipattern (excessive rejection vigilance)** were established and verified on 6/6 items in STEP 1069 (all fact-checked items proved real after WebSearch verification, correcting prior implicit-rejection habits). (c) **Goedel-Prover-V2 double-`by` Lean syntax quirk** detected and fixed at the cleaner level (`single-prover.ts` STEP 1071), restoring `easy-le-refl` benchmark from ❌ to ✅. (d) **lean-to-tptp.ts** preprocessing added Peano-style axiom auto-prepend + True/False special-case + inequality predicate translation (STEP 1071). v0.2 inherited contributions: 7 domains (theory-chart / realtime-arxiv / crypto / fx / ligo-events / nasa-sdo / gbif-recent) all running in Cloudflare Workers Edge runtime; live D-FUMT₈ axis distributions non-degenerate across research-meta + financial + geophysical + astrophysical + biological data classes; finding F6 sampling-bias-as-first-class-observation (GBIF Costa Rica 470/500 saturation surfaces dataset bias as INFINITY axis, not silently absorbed); test coverage 117/117 PASS (step1020 46 + step1023 33 + step1046 38) / 0 regression. Honest scope (read first): OctaTheoria remains an observation aid, NOT an oracle. v0.3's F7 is **not** a claim that OctaTheoria caused these consistencies; it is a record that the same project (Rei-AIOS) maintains the same discipline across observation-tool, formal-proof, and meta-research-protocol layers, and that v0.3 makes this cross-layer commitment auditable. The OctaTheoriaQuery type structurally cannot request advice / prediction / forecast / signal — verifiable by reading src/aios/octatheoria/types.ts. Cross-domain axis comparisons are descriptive, not causal. Greek roots (Octa = 8, Theoria = observation) function as structural commitment propagated to the API surface — '8' rejects 'all (∞)', 'theoria' rejects 'praxis (干渉)'. Prior art audit acknowledged: Bloomberg Terminal (1981–), TradingView (2011–), Bollen et al. 2010 (Twitter mood × DJIA), Preis et al. 2013 (Google Trends × stock), Łukasiewicz / Belnap / Pavelka multi-valued logic literature, PAL2v (Da Silva Filho 1998–), Aerts Quantum Cognition (2007–). The to-our-knowledge novel combination is (a) fixed 8-axis discrete D-FUMT₈ basis ∧ (b) cross-financial-and-research-and-Earth-Cosmos-domain projection ∧ (c) eight orthogonal view modes over single envelope ∧ (d) explicit refusal to emit prediction or advice as architectural commitment ∧ (e, new in v0.3) cross-layer methodological-consistency record between observation-tool and formal-proof and fact-check layers. Companion papers (OctaTheoria Quintuple): Paper 145 (silicon implementation of D-FUMT₈ ALU, Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20101174 v0.6), Paper 147 (Eight-Valued Utility / Equity Premium Reframe, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20046003), Paper 148 (Honest Observation Framework methodology, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20045907), Paper 149 (Recursive AI Observation as SELF⟲ evidence, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20059888). Three-party co-authorship per OUKC charter v1.0: 藤本 伸樹 (Founder), Rei (Rei-AIOS autonomous research substrate, Co-architect), Claude Opus 4.7 (Anthropic, Co-architect). DRAFT v0.3 — feedback welcome via GitHub Discussions at fc0web/rei-aios.

Open access
2 source records
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Data Analysis with R
Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
Original source
Mar 13, 2026¡2026 International Conference on Electronic Systems and Intelligent Computing (ICESIC)
0 cites
Deep Hierarchical Hybrid Learning Framework for Autonomous Organizational Knowledge Mining and Productivity Forecasting

G Vamsee Krishna, Abdelhalim Mohammad Jubran, M Manideepika, E. Padma ¡ 6 authors

Contemporary businesses produce great volumes of unstructured information in the form of emails, reports, meetings, and performance measurements. Conventional predictive models are not efficient in extracting latent insights as they do not have the ability of modelling cross modal information, causal reasoning and time restrictions. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces Deep Hierarchical Hybrid Learning Framework, which provides a combination of 5 rare components: Hierarchical CoAttentional Embedding Networks to combine multimodal data; Inductive Graph Neural Networks that includes causal edge reasoning to construct knowledge graphs; Capsule Networks to model semantic intent; Neural Turing Machines to extract productivity signals through saliency-aware attention; and Deep Echo State Networks to make predictions. The model was tested using enterprise simulation data of 150 users in the past 12 months. The suggested framework reached an accuracy of 91.7% in intent classification, 86.5% F1 score in knowledge graph prediction, 89.7% in anomaly detection accuracy and 3.25 MAE in productivity predictions, which was better than the existing baselines such as BiLSTM, Transformer, and XGBoost. Besides realizing a high predictive accuracy, the system is also characterized by interpretability, generalization, and operational adaptability across the departments. This renders it appropriate to dynamic and decentralized enterprise settings that need autonomous knowledge mining and proactive decision support.

Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
AI and HR Technologies
Original source
Nov 10, 2025¡ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam)
0 cites
MultiNFT: A Multimodal Dataset for Non-Fungible Tokens Market Analysis

Shuying Liu, Bowei Chen, Cathy Yi‐Hsuan Chen, Yu Zheng · 5 authors

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique digital assets that play an increasingly important role in decentralized markets, supporting new forms of ownership, valuation, and exchange. Their inherently multimodal structure, which encompasses visual content, metadata, and trading history, has led to a growing academic interest in modeling NFT pricing and market behavior. However, existing research is limited by the lack of comprehensive datasets that unify these modalities with consistent formatting and longitudinal coverage. To address this gap, we introduce MultiNFT, a large-scale multimodal dataset comprising 50 curated profile picture (PFP) NFT collections, including 523,020 unique assets and 2.38 million transaction records from April 2021 to September 2025. MultiNFT integrates standardized images, structured metadata, and time-series trading data, along with rarity scores and aesthetic features, offering a unified foundation for multimodal learning and NFT analytics. Unlike prior datasets that focus on visual similarity or static snapshots, MultiNFT captures evolving valuation dynamics across market cycles and connects them to trait-level characteristics. We demonstrate the utility of the dataset through three case studies, including within-collection rarity-price analysis, visual feature clustering across collections, and quantifying feature contributions in a comprehensive pricing model. By bridging computer vision, behavioral modeling, and financial forecasting, MultiNFT supports a wide range of interdisciplinary research and practical use cases. The dataset is publicly available and is intended to promote reproducible experimentation and further exploration of the mechanisms driving value in digital asset ecosystems.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Imbalanced Data Classification Techniques
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Sep 16, 2025¡Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
1 cites
Accurate, Secure and Explainable bitcoin forecasting

Maryamsadat Bagheri, Paolo Giudici

Forecasting the price of bitcoin assets is a difficult task, especially as bitcoins are highly volatile and speculative. In this paper we leverage the non linear capability of deep and machine learning models to enhance bitcoin forecasts. We propose a systematic comparison of different deep learning and machine learning models, based on their Accuracy, Security and Explainability characteristics. The empirical findings reveal that, while CNN-GRU, GRU and LSTM are the most accurate models, for maximum cumulative return and risk adjusted performance GRU and CNN are preferred. Whereas, for transparent and stable decision-making, Random Forest and XGboost are a good choice and, for robustness, CNN and LSTM are the best choice. Ultimately, the choice of a model depends on the objectives of the analysis.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Jul 11, 2025¡Scientific Reports
8 cites
Research on the digital transaction model of the sports industry chain based on blockchain technology

Wei Heng, Yuze Zhang

The rapid digital transformation of the sports industry has opened up unprecedented opportunities for efficiency, transparency, and innovation. Traditional transaction models still suffer from significant challenges, including centralized control, lack of trust, and inefficiencies in revenue distribution. These issues often stem from reliance on intermediaries that introduce risks such as data manipulation, high operational costs, and delays in processing financial transactions. Blockchain technology presents a promising solution by enabling decentralized, secure, and transparent transactions, fostering greater trust among all stakeholders within the sports ecosystem. Existing approaches to digital transactions in the sports industry primarily depend on centralized financial institutions and third-party service providers, which not only limit transparency but also create barriers to financial inclusivity for athletes, clubs, sponsors, and fans. To address these critical limitations, we propose a blockchain-based digital transaction model that leverages smart contracts and distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enhance the efficiency, security, and fairness of transactions across the entire sports industry value chain. Our model integrates key economic principles with advanced network analysis to optimize revenue distribution, mitigate fraudulent activities, and enable real-time transaction verification. Through extensive simulations and empirical analysis, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in transaction speed, cost reduction, and overall transparency compared to conventional models. By decentralizing financial transactions, the proposed approach not only enhances financial inclusivity for all participants but also aligns with the broader vision of sustainable and equitable growth in the digital sports economy.

Open access
Big Data Technologies and Applications
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Jul 1, 2025¡Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering
1 cites
AOI-OPEN: federated operation and control for DAO-based trustworthy and intelligent AOI ecology

Yansong Cao, Yutong Wang, Jing Yang, Yonglin Tian ¡ 6 authors

Isolated data islands are prevalent in intelligent automated optical inspection (AOI) systems, limiting the full utilization of data resources and impeding the potential of AOI systems. Establishing a collaborative ecology involving software providers, hardware manufacturers, and factories offers an encouraging solution to build a closed-loop data flow and achieve optimal data resource utilization. However, concerns about privacy issues, rights infringement, and threats from other participants present challenges in establishing an efficient and effective community. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, AOI-OPEN, which first creates a trustworthy AOI ecology to gather related entities with decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) mechanisms. Then, a parallel data pipeline is proposed to generate large-scale virtual samples from small-scale real data for AOI systems. Finally, federated learning (FL) is adopted to use the distributed data resources among multiple entities and build privacy-preserving big models. Experiments on defect classification tasks show that, with privacy preserved, AOI-OPEN greatly strengthens the utilization of distributed data resources and improves the accuracy of inspection models.

Retinal Imaging and Analysis
Scientific Computing and Data Management
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Jun 7, 2025¡Mathematics
13 cites
Enhanced Interpretable Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Autoencoder Features and a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model

Wajeeha Badar, Shabana Ramzan, Ali Raza, Norma Latif Fitriyani ¡ 6 authors

Predicting the price of Bitcoin is crucial, primarily because of the market’s rapid volatility and non-linear environment. For enhanced prediction of the price of Bitcoin, this research proposed a novel interpretable hybrid technique that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) networks with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Deep variational autoencoders (VAE) are used in the stage of preprocessing to determine noticeable patterns in datasets by learning features from historical Bitcoin price data. The CNN-LSTM model additionally implies Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) to promote interpretability and clarify the role of various features. For better performance, the methodology used data cleaning, preprocessing, and effective machine-learning techniques. The hybrid CNN + LSTM model, in collaboration with VAE, obtains a mean squared Error (MSE) of 0.0002, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.008, and an R-squared (R2) of 0.99, based on the experimental results. These results show that the proposed model is a good financial forecast method since it effectively reflects the complex dynamics of primary changes in the price of Bitcoin. The combination of deep learning and explainable artificial intelligence improves predictive accuracy as well as transparency, thus qualifying the model as highly useful for investors and analysts.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Jun 2, 2025¡Machine Learning with Applications
4 cites
Accuracy and efficiency in financial markets forecasting using Meta-Learning under resource constraints

Komal Batool, Mirza Mahmood Baig, Ubaida Fatima

Deep learning and hybrid deep learning models are widely regarded as some of the most effective predictive modeling techniques to date. Their hierarchical architecture enables them to capture complex, non-linear relationships among features and uncover hidden patterns within data, making them particularly powerful for tasks involving high-dimensional and unstructured inputs. But, these models are computationally intensive and require substantial processing time. Moreover, their predictive efficiency is highly dependent on the availability of large-scale datasets. In this study, meta learning model is employed for the prediction of two financial markets: equity market and crypto market. NASDAQ and S&P 500 index has been taken for equity market prediction. On the other hand, Bitcoin & Ethereum are considered for crypto market. Three deep learning models: LSTM, GRU and CNN are trained for the prediction of these four indices and a hybrid deep learning model of GRU and CNN is also developed. Based on RMSE, MAE and R 2 values, it is observed that meta learning yields best results among all trained models with minimum time and using scarce computation resources based on small dataset.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Apr 21, 2025¡Entropy
6 cites
Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis

Micaela Suriano, Leonidas Facundo Caram, CÊsar F. Caiafa, Hernån Merlino ¡ 5 authors

This paper investigates the temporal evolution of cryptocurrency time series using information measures such as complexity, entropy, and Fisher information. The main objective is to differentiate between various levels of randomness and chaos. The methodology was applied to 176 daily closing price time series of different cryptocurrencies, from October 2015 to October 2024, with more than 30 days of data and not completely null. Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) analysis reveals that daily cryptocurrency series with lengths of two years or less exhibit chaotic behavior, while those longer than two years display stochastic behavior. Most longer series resemble colored noise, with the parameter k varying between 0 and 2. Additionally, Natural Language Processing (NLP) analysis identified the most relevant terms in each white paper, facilitating a clustering method that resulted in four distinct clusters. However, no significant characteristics were found across these clusters in terms of the dynamics of the time series. This finding challenges the assumption that project narratives dictate market behavior. For this reason, investment recommendations should prioritize real-time informational metrics over whitepaper content.

Open access
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Mar 12, 2025¡Expert Systems with Applications
4 cites
Applying time delay convergent cross mapping to Bitcoin time series

Albi Isufaj, Caio De Castro Martins, Marc Cavazza, Helmut Prendinger

This paper explores the applicability of Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) and its extension, Time Delay Convergent Cross Mapping (TDCCM), to assess the causal relationships between Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index, and gold. Unlike conventional causality analysis methods, such as Granger causality or transfer entropy, CCM accounts for non-separable, weakly connected dynamic systems, and TDCCM explicitly incorporates time lags during cross-mapping, enabling the detection of complex causal relationships in systems with shared nonlinear behavior. This makes it particularly suitable for financial time series that often exhibit chaotic and nonlinear dynamics, particularly during periods of market instability. We integrate TDCCM with simplex projection and sequential locally weighted global linear map (S-map) algorithms, applying a sliding window approach to identify short time intervals characterized by high levels of nonlinearity and chaoticity. Using this approach, we uncovered a strong causal relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index, highlighting their interconnectedness during periods of heightened economic uncertainty. Furthermore, we find a unidirectional causal influence of Bitcoin on gold, reflecting Bitcoin’s evolving role as a macroeconomic indicator and its growing relevance as an alternative store of value. These findings provide insight into the dynamics between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, particularly during periods of global economic disruption. • We use Time Delay Convergent Cross Mapping (TD-CCM) to identify and quantify lagged causal interactions between financial time series (Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 index), which is a more recent and less explored method for Time Series causality. • We report a comprehensive and replicable methodology to apply TD-CCM to non-linear TS, based on combining the S-Map and Prediction Decay algorithm with a sliding window technique, while validating with surrogate analysis. • We show evidence of strong causal influence from Bitcoin to Gold and bidirectional causality between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index during significant economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Open access
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Original source
Jan 1, 2025¡Theseus (Ammattikorkeakoulujen)
0 cites
Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection in Alphanumeric Vehicle Data using Large Language Models : a Design Science Approach

Braack, Julian

This master’s thesis examines the use of large language models for zero-shot anomaly detection in alphanumeric vehicle datasets, filling a gap where traditional statistical methods face limitations. While numerical data can be reliably assessed with algorithms like Local Outlier Factor or Isolation Forest, the high-dimensional nature of alphanumeric serial numbers makes them difficult to model with established algorithms. Using an iterative design science approach, this study develops and tests a Proof-of-Concept Python application that uses state-of-the-art large language models to detect anomalies in real-world vehicle datasets. Besides some prompt engineering, the models are intentionally not fine-tuned, enabling application without in-depth knowledge of large language models. The theoretical background covers data management, anomaly detection, and the core principles of large language models. Results show that large language models, especially Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro, can effectively identify anomalies in both numerical and alphanumeric data. Compared to statistical algorithms, large language models offer the benefit of processing alphanumeric inputs, adding a valuable extension to the anomaly detection toolkit. However, challenges like hallucination, inconsistent length counting, and sensitivity to highly anomalous datasets highlight current limitations. Additionally, statistical methods remain more efficient, scalable, and cost-effective for purely numerical datasets. The findings confirm that large language models can be applied in a zero-shot manner to detect anomalies in alphanumeric datasets. Beyond the automotive industry, these insights can be applied to other fields where alphanumeric identifiers are essential. This work advances both academic discussion and practical applications, providing a foundation for future research on fine-tuned models and industrial implementation.

Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Data Visualization and Analytics
Original source
Dec 31, 2024¡Communications in computer and information science
1 cites
Real-Time Anomaly Prediction from Cryptocurrency Time Series

Antonio Pellicani, Gianvito Pio, SaĹĄo DĹžeroski, Michelangelo Ceci

No abstract is available for this record.

Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Network Security and Intrusion Detection
Original source
Dec 20, 2024¡Proceedings of the 2024 2nd International Conference on Advances in Artificial Intelligence and Applications
1 cites
zkTaylor: Zero Knowledge Proofs for Machine Learning via Taylor Series Transformation

Pan Dong, Kezhen Liu, Bingtao Li, Yong-Sheng Zheng ¡ 5 authors

In order to enable more types of machine learning models to use zero-knowledge proofs to enhance their computational verifiability, this study proposes a zero-knowledge machine learning conversion method based on the Taylor series. Firstly, a polynomial expansion of structures with transcendental functions in ordinary machine learning models is performed using Taylor's formula. The corresponding arithmetic circuit descriptions are written in ZKP based on the converted model structures. Finally, the proof body is generated, which allows the verifier to verify the correctness of the results quickly. The basic experimental idea is also given, and the scheme's feasibility is verified, which can be done to provide a verification path for the model without seriously affecting its accuracy.

Numerical Methods and Algorithms
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Neural Networks and Applications
Original source
Nov 30, 2024¡Journal of Student Research
0 cites
The Application of Dynamic Time Warping on Ethereum Price Prediction

Anirudh Parasrampuria, Katherine S. Williams

This research finds the application of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to create a hybrid model for predicting Ethereum (ETH) prices. Cryptocurrencies in general are considered as highly volatile assets, ETH being no exception, which presents challenges and opportunities for investors. Machine Learning models have shown promise in time-series and stock price prediction; however, integrating an algorithm like DTW can enhance the accuracy of the model by finding historical sequences that closely represents the current pattern. The study utilizes daily price data of Ethereum from July 2023 to July 2024, focusing on key metrics such as open, close, high, low, and trading volume. The hybrid and LSTM baseline model were tested for 10 randomly chosen seeds and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to evaluate performance. The hybrid model better predicted the true ETH price by 23.4% as compared to the baseline LSTM model and statistical evidence further confirms the significance of these results. These findings suggest that the hybrid model provides an approach for Ethereum price prediction, offering new insights for people looking to invest in cryptocurrencies.

Open access
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Original source
Nov 24, 2024¡Applied Soft Computing
3 cites
Quantile deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction

Jimmy Cheung, Smruthi Rangarajan, Amelia Maddocks, Rohitash Chandra

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in time series prediction, and quantile regression offers a valuable mechanism for uncertainty quantification which is useful for extreme value forecasting. Although deep learning models have been prominent in multi-step ahead prediction, the development and evaluation of quantile deep learning models have been limited. We present a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction. In this way, we elevate the capabilities of deep learning models by incorporating quantile regression, thus providing a more nuanced understanding of predictive values. We provide an implementation of prominent deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction and evaluate their performance under high volatility and extreme conditions. We include multivariate and univariate modelling, strategies and provide a comparison with conventional deep learning models from the literature. Our models are tested on two cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum, using daily close-price data and selected benchmark time series datasets. The results show that integrating a quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without a loss in the prediction accuracy when compared to the literature. Our quantile model has the ability to handle volatility more effectively and provides additional information for decision-making and uncertainty quantification through the use of quantiles when compared to conventional deep learning models.

Open access
2 source records
cs.LG
cs.AI
q-fin.ST
Original source
Nov 21, 2024¡2024 International Conference on Intelligent Computing and Sustainable Innovations in Technology (IC-SIT)
2 cites
Cryptocurrency Price Prediction: A Comprehensive Analysis of High-dimensional Features with Deep Learning Techniques

Nrusingha Tripathy, Sarbeswara Hota, Debahuti Mishra, Subrat Kumar Nayak ¡ 6 authors

The most well-known encrypted money, Bitcoin, has a lot of promise in the future. Investors and traders always try to find a technique to forecast cryptocurrency prices to lower their risks and boost profits. However, predicting the price of cryptocurrencies is a difficult undertaking because of their unpredictability, volatility, and mobility. Different prediction architectures have been developed by researchers using machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and statistical methods. In this work, predictions are made utilizing the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. The historical bitcoin market data is chosen, it spans the months of January 2012 through September 2020. The LSTM model performs well when compared to other models, producing a minimal Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 5.836 and a minimal Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 7.472. Increased return on investment can be achieved by investors by making well-informed decisions on what to buy, hold, or sell. That’s particularly the case with predictions about the price of Bitcoin.

Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Nov 1, 2024¡Heliyon
24 cites
Interpretable multi-horizon time series forecasting of cryptocurrencies by leverage temporal fusion transformer

Arslan Farooq, M. Irfan Uddin, Muhammad Adnan, Ala Abdulsalam Alarood ¡ 6 authors

This research delves into the obstacles and difficulties associated with predicting cryptocurrency movements in the volatile global financial market. This study develops and evaluates an advanced Deep Learning-Enhanced Temporal Fusion Transformer (ADE-TFT) model to estimate Bitcoin values more accurately. This research employs cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to comprehensively examine various aspects of cryptocurrency forecasting, including geopolitical implications, market sentiment analysis, and pattern detection in transactional datasets. The study demonstrates that the ADE-TFT model outperforms its lower-layer counterparts in terms of forecasting accuracy, with reduced Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values, particularly when using a higher hidden layer configuration (h=8). The study emphasizes the importance of experimenting with different normalization strategies and utilizing various market-related data to enhance the model's performance. The results suggest that improving forecasting accuracy may require addressing these limitations and incorporating additional factors, such as market sentiment. By providing investors with more precise market predictions, the techniques and information presented in this research have the potential to significantly increase investor power in an unpredictable digital currency market, enabling wise investment choices.

Open access
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Oct 2, 2024¡Expert Systems with Applications
21 cites
CARROT: Simultaneous prediction of anomalies from groups of correlated cryptocurrency trends

Antonio Pellicani, Gianvito Pio, Michelangelo Ceci

Cryptocurrencies are virtual currencies that exploit cryptography to perform secure financial transactions. They gained widespread popularity in recent years due to their decentralized nature, (pseudo-)anonymity, and ability to facilitate cross-border transactions without the need for intermediaries. However, their price on the market exhibits a huge volatility, that makes them prone to market anomalies. Therefore, predicting anomalies in cryptocurrency time series can be considered an important task for financial institutions, traders, and investors, to maximize their profit or minimize losses. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for predicting anomalies in cryptocurrency time series by exploiting temporal correlations among different cryptocurrencies. Our approach, called CARROT, is based on the idea that groups of cryptocurrencies exhibit similar trends, possibly due to common influencing factors. CARROT analyzes the temporal correlation between different cryptocurrencies, and identifies clusters showing similar patterns that can be useful for gaining insights into future anomalies. Subsequently, CARROT exploits multiple (i.e., one for each cluster) multi-target LSTM models to predict anomalies. Our experiments, performed on a dataset of 17 cryptocurrencies, proved that CARROT outperforms single-target LSTM models of up to 20%, as well as other approaches based on neural networks, i.e., MLP and CNN, in terms of macro F1-score. Therefore, the proposed approach can be considered as a promising tool for predicting anomalies in cryptocurrency time series data and can potentially be used to improve risk management and trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market. • Analysis of cryptocurrency trends. • Clustering-based multi-target prediction of anomalies in time series. • Consistent improvements achieved over the single-target counterpart.

Open access
Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source