This study builds on the fiscal decentralization and promotion tournament theories. Utilizing 12 years of panel data from 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, we measure the urban carbon productivity index through a super-efficient SBM model that incorporates undesired outputs. We then analyze the effect of local land finance strategy interaction on urban carbon productivity and its mechanism using a spatial self-lagging model. Our key findings reveal: (1) Local governments exhibit mimetic spatial strategy interactions in land finance behavior, both from a geographical distance perspective and when combining economic development levels with geographical distance factors; (2) the interactive behavior of local land finance strategy has a significant inhibitory effect on urban carbon productivity, thereby leading to a loss of urban carbon productivity; (3) the local land finance strategy interaction causes a reduction in urban carbon productivity by changing the cross-city foreign direct investment strategy interaction, environmental regulation strategy interaction, and industrial structure strategy interaction. To achieve these goals, China should foster healthy competition among cities regarding land finance and promote “three-way synergy” between opening up, environmental protection, and industrial upgrading. These coordinated efforts aim to boost urban carbon productivity in the Yangtze Basin while offering developing countries a fresh approach to watershed governance focused on carbon reduction goals.
This paper investigates the spatial diffusion of an intergovernmental grant in Benin. Using static and dynamic spatial models, we estimate the spillover effects of the Fonds d’Appui au Développement des Communes (FADeC) on per capita local government expenditure in the 77 municipalities from 2008 to 2015. Neighborliness – a measure of interdependence – is captured through geographic and distance-based spatial weighting schemes. In addition, we constructed a measurement of ethnic affinity as an alternative spatial weighting scheme to test for the existence of an ethno-spatial interdependence in local public finance in Benin. The empirical results suggest that a statistically significant share of the total effects of the FADeC stems from indirect elasticities or the diffusion process of grants received by neighboring jurisdictions, regardless of how we measure neighborliness. The results also confirm the existence of a robust ethno-spatial interdependence and complementarity in local government expenditure in Benin. The spillovers across ethnic neighbors are estimated to be 13.9% of the total effects in the short-run and 15.5% in the long-run. Put differently, the effects of the FADeC in a given municipality are influenced by the transfers received by its ethnic (and linguistic) neighbors. The findings point to the appeal of inter-governmental transfers for the decentralized financing of public services, especially in low-income countries where local bureaucratic capacity in raising own-source revenues might be limited. Supporting local governments with well-structured grants can not only be a channel to foster local public provision but also contribute to pushing geographic or ethnic neighboring localities to increase their own spending and generate positive spillovers that are crucial for wholistic regional development.
Over the last decade, Bitcoin has attracted a great deal of public interest and Bitcoin market has grown rapidly. One of the main characteristics of the market is that it often undergoes some events or incidents that cause outlying observations. To obtain reliable results in the statistical analysis of Bitcoin data, these outlying observations need to be carefully treated. In this study, we are interested in change point analysis for Bitcoin return series having such outlying observations. Since these outlying observations can affect change point analysis undesirably, we use a robust test for parameter change to locate change points. We report some significant change points that are not detected by the existing tests and demonstrate that the model allowing for parameter changes is better fitted to the data. Finally, we show that the model with parameter change can improve the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk.
Xinhua Zhu, Yigang Wei, Yani Lai, Yan Li · 6 authors
“Land finance” refers to the key fiscal strategy in which local governments in China generate revenue through land grant premiums and land tax revenues. A burgeoning body of literature has focused on the driving factors of China’s land finance from different aspects including fiscal decentralization, revenue decentralization, competition among local governments, land marketization, infrastructure development, and economic development. However, little research has provided a comprehensive perspective integrating social, economic and institutional aspects to investigate the driving forces of these unique and profound issues in China. This study aims to investigate the driving factors and working mechanism of land finance. A theoretical and empirical model was proposed using soft budget constraint theory and least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The panel data of 35 Chinese major cities were assessed between 2006 and 2015. The empirical results contend the following: (1) the land transfer and fiscal systems provide the key impetus for land financing because the land transfer system forms a stable modality, and the fiscal system is an important incentive for land financing; (2) the effects of the economic development and political system are insignificant; and (3) the political and land systems significantly influence economic development. Our contributions focus on two aspects. Firstly, a comprehensive framework of factors germane to land finance is constructed. Secondly, a new research methodology for land use study is proposed. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the first to employ the PLS-SEM method to delineate and verify the influence paths between multiple driving factors and land finance in different cities. Hence, research reliability can be improved.
OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the ability of hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models in capturing different geo-temporal structures in order to explain hospital risk variations using three different conditions: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), Colectomy in Colorectal Cancer (CCC) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). RESEARCH DESIGN: This is an observational population-based spatio-temporal study, from 2002 to 2013, with a two-level geographical structure, Autonomous Communities (AC) and Health Care Areas (HA). SETTING: The Spanish National Health System, a quasi-federal structure with 17 regional governments (AC) with full responsibility in planning and financing, and 203 HA providing hospital and primary care to a defined population. METHODS: A poisson-log normal mixed model in the Bayesian framework was fitted using the INLA efficient estimation procedure. MEASURES: The spatio-temporal hospitalization relative risks, the evolution of their variation, and the relative contribution (fraction of variation) of each of the model components (AC, HA, year and interaction AC-year). RESULTS: Following PCI-CCC-CODP order, the three conditions show differences in the initial hospitalization rates (from 4 to 21 per 10,000 person-years) and in their trends (upward, inverted V shape, downward). Most of the risk variation is captured by phenomena occurring at the HA level (fraction variance: 51.6, 54.7 and 56.9%). At AC level, the risk of PCI hospitalization follow a heterogeneous ascending dynamic (interaction AC-year: 17.7%), whereas in COPD the AC role is more homogenous and important (37%). CONCLUSIONS: In a system where the decisions loci are differentiated, the spatio-temporal modeling allows to assess the dynamic relative role of different levels of decision and their influence on health outcomes.
Based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2008, using the panel co-integration method, this paper presents an empirical study on the long-term equilibrium relationship between the fiscal decentralization, the local government competition and the farmland conversion. On this basis, establishing the dynamic panel data model, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to analyze the dynamic impact of the fiscal decentralization and the local government competition on the farmland conversion from the view of three cross-regional groups and the mainland China. The results show that there is a long-run co-integration relationship between the fiscal decentralization, the farmland conversion and the local government competition, and also there is a positive significant influence of the fiscal decentralization and the local government competition on the farmland conversion, a 1% increase in the degree of fiscal decentralization will increase the area of farmland conversion by 0.3280%. In addition, there is a significant difference of the incentive effect of local government competition on the farmland conversion in different regions. The paper ends with policy suggestions for perfecting the system of the fiscal decentralization, taxation and the division of responsibility and authority, reforming the criterion of the political achievement assessment, strengthening the management of land revenue, reducing the reliance of the local government on land finance; at the same time, the farmers' land property rights should be perfected.
이 연구는 지방분권을 위한 정책수단으로 재정분권이 어떠한 방식으로 이해될 수 있으며, 왜 필요한지에 대해 시스템사고의 이론을 바탕으로 지방재정시스템을 구성하는 변수들의 상호작용관계를 분석하였다. 연구를 통해 얻어진 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 지방재정시스템을 구성하는 변수들은 상당한 수준에서상호작용관계가 형성되고 있으며, 5개의 양(+)의 피드백 루프가 중심이 되어 급속한 성장과 급속한 쇠퇴를 거듭한다는 점을 발견할 수 있었다. 둘째, 지방재정분권화의 타당성에 대한 전략 지점이 인과지도 모델링을 통해 발견되었다. 특히, 선순환구조를 악순환의 구조를 변질시키는 변수(국고보조금, 부동산거래과세, 중앙정부차원의 지방재정조정제도, 지방정부채무 등)이 지속적으로 작동함으로써 지방재정시스템을 쇠퇴시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 이를 바탕으로 전략적 정책과제가 도출 될 수 있었다. 이러한 연구는 지방재정분권에 대해 부분에 지식이 아닌 전체적 지식의 관점에서 지방재정시스템을 이해하고 지방재정의 학문적 폭을 높여 줄 것으로 판단된다. This study analyzes the interaction of variables consisting of the local finance system based on the theory of system thinking regarding how financial decentralization can be understood as the political means for local decentralization and why it is needed. The results gained from this research are as follows: first, variables consisting of the local finance system form interactional relationship in the significant level, and it has been found that rapid growth and rapid decline repeat with five positive feedback loops as the center. Second, strategic points for the validity of local finance decentralization were discovered through causal map modeling. In particular, it has been shown that the virtuous cycle structure declines the local finance system through the constant operation of variables (government subsidies, taxation for real estate transactions, central government's local finance mediation system, and local government debt, etc.) that deteriorate the vicious cycle structure. Based on this, strategic policy tasks were drawn. It is expected that this study will help the understanding of the local finance system and increase academic width for local finance from the aspects of general knowledge, not the knowledge about local finance decentralization.
The aim of this research is to better understand the effects of a decentralized health system of the Philippines on public health care expenditures by investigating determinants of local government public health spending for year 2007. Within the context of the Philippines’ decentralized health system and health externalities that arise at the individual-level and manifest at the regional level, particular emphasis is given to spatial spillovers and fiscal interactions among municipalities. The research addresses these issues in an empirical spatial econometric framework utilizing public finance local government data for the Philippines. Competition for health resources including doctors and drugs, thereby bidding up the costs of health inputs is one of the potential causes for positive fiscal spatial dependence cited in this paper. It is also anticipated that this could be an outcome of yardstick competition, where local agents strategically compete with each other by spending higher in order to be re-elected, 2007 being an election year.
The declining federal role in economic development in distressed urban areas and concerns over the problems associated with metropolitan decentralization necessitate increased attention to the intrametropolitan distribution of business development programs. We examine the distribution of business loans made by the U.S. Small Business Administration's 504 development company program in the Chicago metro-politan area over a 5-year period and find that, after controlling for firm density, firm size, and industrial mix, higher income areas and outlying zip codes receive more loans than lower income and closer-in areas. We suggest a number of supply-and demand-side explanations for such patterns, call for measures to direct the flow of 504 financing more to lower income areas, and call for examining more loan and subsidy programs for their effects on intrametropolitan business development patterns.