(eng) The main conceptual element this thesis orbits around is the idea of using social networks as a data source. First, classical trading theory and current usage of data obtained from social networks is reviewed. Taking all this information into account, a forecasting of the Bitcoin price is performed using both classical methods and machine learning Neural Networks. In order to obtain data from social networks, another complexity layer needs to be added by accessing the sources through APIs and directly web-scrapping the net. The results of all of this complex implementation are given with a strong focus on visualisation using several different techniques. Finally, after a critical discussion a Future Work chapter is introduced, where many possible follow-ups are drawn up.
Francesco Parino, Mariano G. Beiró, Laëtitia Gauvin
As the first decentralized digital currency introduced in 2009 together with the blockchain, Bitcoin offers new opportunities both for developed and developing countries. Bitcoin peer-to-peer transactions are independent of the banking system, facilitating foreign exchanges with low transaction fees, such as remittances, and offering a high degree of anonymity. These opportunities together with other key factors led the Bitcoin to become extremely popular and caused its price to skyrocket during 2017 (Henry et al. in J Digit Bank 2(4):311–337, 2018 ). However, while the Bitcoin blockchain attracts a lot of attention, it remains difficult to investigate where this attention comes from, due to the pseudo-anonymity of the system, and consequently to appreciate its social impact. Here we make an attempt to characterize the adoption of the Bitcoin blockchain by country. In the first part of the work we show that information about the number of Bitcoin software client downloads, the IP addresses that act as relays for the transactions, and the Internet searches about Bitcoin provide together a coherent picture of the system evolution in different countries. Using these quantities as a proxy for user adoption, we identify several socio-economic indexes such as the GDP per capita, freedom of trade and the Internet penetration as key variables correlated with the degree of user adoption. In the second part of the work, we build a network of Bitcoin transactions between countries using the IP addresses of nodes relaying transactions and we develop an augmented version of the gravity model of trade in order to identify socio-economic factors linked to the flow of Bitcoin between countries. In a nutshell our study provides a new insight on Bitcoin adoption by country and on the potential socio-economic drivers of the international Bitcoin flow.
We are part of historic changes in terms of profoundness and velocity in all industries and in customers’ expectations. The aim of this paper is to create an overview of a new age in customer experience generated by a banking environment disturbed by the raising of Financial Technology. Firstly, the article is reviewing the customer experience concept from academic and practitioner perspective. It is making a literature review and additionally is bringing into attention the common elements of customer satisfaction and service quality which are considered an antecedent of customer experience. Furthermore, it is reminded that the latest developments in communications and information technology are intensely changing customers’ demands and expectations resulting a total transformation in the way that customers are interfering with the service providers. Secondly, is debating the subject of how financial service industry should balance customer experience expectations, considering that the banks are activating in an environment disrupted by the raise of distributed ledger technology, machine learning, big data analytics, roboadvice and other technology/digitalization proliferated by the FinTechs. Lastly it is analyzed how European regulatory bodies are seeing and managing the new technologies and FinTechs, how agile should be in an ecosystem that is very dynamic and governed by a customer with a lot of choices, good or bad, risky or non-risky, in front of his decision.
We develop a dynamic asset-pricing model of cryptocurrencies/tokens that allow users to conduct peer-to-peer transactions on digital platforms. The equilibrium value of tokens is determined by aggregating heterogeneous users' transactional demand rather than discounting cashflows as in standard valuation models. Endogenous platform adoption builds upon user network externality and exhibits an S-curve-it starts slow, becomes volatile, and eventually tapers off. Introducing tokens lowers users' transaction costs on the platform by allowing users to capitalize on platform growth. The resulting intertemporal feedback between user adoption and token price accelerates adoption and dampens user-base volatility.
Trading of Bitcoin is spread about multiple venues where buying and selling is offered in various currencies. However, all markets trade one common good and by the law of one price, the different prices should not deviate in the long run. In this context we are interested in which platform is the most important one in terms of price discovery. To this end, we use a pairwise approach accounting for a potential impact of exchange rates. The contribution to price discovery is measured by Hasbrouck's and Gonzalo and Granger's information share. We then derive an ordering with respect to the importance of each market which reveals that the Chinese OKCoin platform is the leader in price discovery of Bitcoin, followed by BTC China.
The purpose of this study is to investigate to what degree usability and user experience are factors in the uptake and use of bitcoin. This paper investigates whether usability affects bitcoin adoption by beginners. To ascertain whether this is true, a pilot study was designed to gather rich qualitative data. Participants in this study were asked to provide commentary while completing an assigned task that was designed to emulate a common case that a person unfamiliar with bitcoin might encounter when dealing with the currency for the first time.
The financial services sector has seen dramatic technological innovations in
the last several years associated with the “fintech revolution.” Major changes have taken place in channel management, credit card rewards marketing, cryptocurrency, and wealth management, and have influenced consumers’ banking behavior indifferent ways. As a consequence, there has been a growing demand for banks to rethink their business models and operations to adapt to changing consumer behavior and counter the competitive pressure from other banks and non-bank players. In this dissertation, I study consumer behavior related to different aspects of
financial innovation by addressing research questions that are motivated by theory-focused research literature and managerial considerations in business practice. I seek to understand how technology is reshaping financial services, and how financial institutions can leverage big data analytics to create deep insights about consumer behavior for decision support.
Fintech business models based on distributed ledgers -- and their smart-contract variants in particular -- offer the prospect of democratizing access to faster, anywhere-accessible, lower cost, reliable-and-secure high-quality financial services. In addition to holding great, economically transformative promise, these business models pose new, little-studied risks and transaction costs. However, these risks and transaction costs are not evident during the demonstration and testing phases of development, when adopters and users are drawn from the community of developers themselves, as well as from among non-programmer fintech evangelists. Hence, when the new risks and transaction costs become manifest -- as the fintech business models are rolled out across the wider economy -- the consequences may also appear to be new and surprising. The present study represents an effort to get ahead of these developments by delineating risks and transaction costs inherent in distributed-ledger- and smart-contracts-based fintech business models. The analysis focuses on code risk and moral-hazard risk, as well as on mixed-economy risks and the unintended consequences of replicating bricks-and-mortar-generation contract forms within the ultra-low transaction-cost environment of fintech.
In this paper, I study the day-of-the-week effect on Bitcoin returns for the period from 2011 through late 2017. Under the trading time hypothesis, returns should be the same for each day of the week. Additionally, I examine how five-day momentum and previous day change in Google trends explain Bitcoin daily returns and return differences between weekends and weekdays. The results show that daily returns are statistically positive on every weekday from Monday to Friday. On the weekends, daily returns are slightly positive, but not at a significant level. Furthermore, I find that the momentum effect is strong during the weekdays but not on the weekends, and previous day change in Google trend does not affect daily returns in a significant manner. My findings indicate that weaker weekend returns cannot be entirely explained by the momentum and Google trend interaction variables.
We document systematic differences in bitcoin prices across 11 different markets representing 26% of global bitcoin trade volume. These differences must -due to the identical nature of all bitcoin -result from characteristics of markets themselves. We examine differences across the markets and find that those which do not require customer identification for establishing an account are more likely to deviate from representative market prices than those which do. This implies that standard financial regulations, specifically know-your-customer regulations, can have a non-negligible impact on the bitcoin market.
Either a company store or a local retailer can be used to establish a sales channel. For high-value products with an existing competing brand, this choice represents a crucial decision a brand-named manufacturer must make for a new market. Under the burden of high operating costs, a weak local retailer may find it difficult to sustain and using it may hurt the manufacturer’s chance to successfully establish the channel. We consider a chain-to-chain competition model comprising two manufacturers and two retailers, in which one retailer may be unable to continue its operation because of high financing costs. We identify a threshold policy for the manufacturers to select the channel structure. Interestingly, we find that channel integration is not always better. Without the consideration of contract termination risk, the manufacturer will bear the operating expenses when its opportunity cost is low or the retailer’s financing cost is sufficiently high. In equilibrium, the manufacturers will choose either (decentralized, decentralized) or (integrated, integrated) channel structure. However, when the termination risk is considered, the equilibrium channel structure would be more likely (integrated, integrated) or (integrated, decentralized).
Feng Mai, Qing Bai, Jay Shan, Xin Wang · 5 authors
As the world's first completely decentralized digital payment system, the emergence of Bitcoin represents a revolutionary phenomenon in financial markets. This study examines the dynamic relationships between social media and bitcoin performance. We consider the distinct effects of different social media platforms and different user groups subdivided by posting volume. The results suggest that more bullish forum posts have a positive effect on bitcoin returns, and the effect is stronger when we only include the posts by users who are less likely to contribute. In addition, messages on Internet forum have stronger impacts on future bitcoin market measures at a daily frequency, but microblogs’ effects are more significant at an hourly frequency.
On March 16, 2013, Cyprus announced that it would accept a bailout that required imposing a one-time levy on bank deposits. It has been argued that, by making traditional deposit accounts seem less secure, the bailout announcement prompted some to consider — or reconsider — using the cryptocurrency bitcoin. Relying on rank data for a subset of apps, existing studies maintain that interest in bitcoin increased following the announcement, especially in countries with troubled banks. We argue that (1) focusing on a subset of apps does not allow one to distinguish a general increase in the demand for bitcoin apps from a substitution between bitcoin apps and (2) changes in rank data are a poor predictor of changes in the number of downloads. In order to address these concerns, we collect rank data for all fifteen bitcoin apps available at the time and use an established technique to estimate an index of downloads for each country considered. We find that, while downloads of bitcoin apps increased following the announcement, the observed effect was not especially pronounced in countries thought to have had troubled banking systems at the time.
Lillian J. Ratliff, Carlos Barreto, Roy Dong, Henrik Ohlsson · 6 authors
As smart meters continue to be deployed around the world collecting unprecedented levels of fine-grained data about consumers, we need to find mechanisms that are fair to both, (1) the electric utility who needs the data to improve their operations, and (2) the consumer who has a valuation of privacy but at the same time benefits from sharing consumption data. In this paper we address this problem by proposing privacy contracts between electric utilities and consumers with the goal of maximizing the social welfare of both. Our mathematical model designs an optimization problem between a population of users that have different valuations on privacy and the costs of operation by the utility. We then show how contracts can change depending on the probability of a privacy breach. This line of research can help inform not only current but also future smart meter collection practices.
This paper considers whether the stability of Bitcoin in the market as a method of payment using a dual currency money-search model. In the model, there is traditional money and Bitcoin. The two currencies are classified by the storage cost and the probability that sellers accept particular money for payments. Agents are randomly matched for transactions. To consider substitution effect between monies, we allow new entries every period. In the beginning of each period, new entrants come into the matching process with a unit of money of their choice. A certain number of sellers also come into the same process to maintain the population share of sellers at a constant level. With appropriately chosen parameters, the author finds that there can be stable and unstable equilibria of the share of bitcoiners. In this case, a stable equilibrium is a success (bitcoiners take a large share) while the other (unstable) is a failure (bitcoiners take a marginal share or vanish). However, if the inflation rate of traditional money decreases, the successful equilibrium disappears to start approaching the failure even if Bitcoin is currently widely accepted. Furthermore, welfare comparisons suggest that an increase in the share of bitcoiners has a negative effect; hence, the benefit from reductions in the transaction costs must compensate for the welfare erosion if Bitcoin is accepted as a new kind of payment system. If the author is to succeed, the Bitcoin community or the public authorities need to be prepared for protecting the system from several illicit activities.
Joshua R. Hendrickson, Thomas L. Hogan, William J. Luther
The recent proliferation of bitcoin has been a boon for users but might pose problems for governments. Indeed, some governments have already taken steps to ban or discourage the use of bitcoin. In a model with endogenous matching and random consumption preferences, we find multiple monetary equilibria including one in which bitcoin coexists with official currency. We then identify the conditions under which government transactions policy might deter the use of bitcoin. We show that such a policy becomes more difficult if some users strictly prefer bitcoin because they can avoid other users holding the official currency in the matching process. ( JEL C78, E41, E42, E50)