Payment Channel Networks (PCNs) are a method for improving the scaling and latency of cryptocurrency transactions. For a payment to be made between two peers in a PCN, a feasible low-fee path in the network must be planned. Many PCN path planning algorithms use a search algorithm that is a variant of Dijkstra's algorithm. In this article, we prove the correctness and computational complexity of this algorithm. Specifically, we show that, if the PCN satisfies a consistency property relating to the fees charged by payment channels, the algorithm is correct and has polynomial computational complexity. However, in the general case, the algorithm is not correct and the path planning problem is NP-hard. These newly developed results can be used to inform the development of new or existing PCNs amenable to path planning. For example, we show that the Lightning Network, which is the most widely used PCN and is built on the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, currently satisfies the above consistency property. As a second contribution, we demonstrate that a small modification to the above path planning algorithm which, although having the same asymptotic computational complexity, empirically shows better performance. This modification involves the use of a bidirectional search and is empirically evaluated by simulating transactions on the Lightning Network.
M. Venturini, Daniel García-Costa, Elena Álvarez-García, Francisco Grimaldo · 5 authors
Cryptocurrencies have recently been in the spotlight of public debate due to their embrace by the new US President, with crypto fans expecting a 'bull run'. The global cryptocurrency market capitalisation is more than \$3.50 trillion, with 1 Bitcoin exchanging for more than \$97,000 at the end of November 2024. Monitoring the evolution of these systems is key to understanding whether the popular perception of cryptocurrencies as a new, sustainable economic infrastructure is well-founded. In this paper, we have reconstructed the network structures and dynamics of Bitcoin from its launch in January 2009 to December 2023 and identified its key evolutionary phases. Our results show that network centralisation and wealth concentration increased from the very early years, following a richer-get-richer mechanism. This trend was endogenous to the system, beyond any subsequent institutional or exogenous influence. The evolution of Bitcoin is characterised by three periods, Exploration, Adaptation and Maturity, with substantial coherent network patterns. Our findings suggest that Bitcoin is a highly centralised structure, with high levels of wealth inequality and internally crystallised power dynamics, which may have negative implications for its long-term sustainability.
Crowdfunding platforms face high transaction fees, need for more transparency, and trust deficits. These issues deter contributors and entrepreneurs from effectively leveraging crowdfunding for innovation and growth. Blockchain technology introduces decentralization, security, and efficiency to address these limitations (1). This paper proposes a blockchain-based crowdfunding framework that integrates stablecoins such as USDT and USDC to mitigate cryptocurrency volatility and ensure seamless fund management. Smart contracts automate compliance processes, including Know Your Customer (KYC) / Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks, and enhance operational efficiency (2). Furthermore, tokenization enables liquidity by allowing fractional ownership and secondary market trading, which must be effectively implemented on any global market platform. A comparative analysis highlights the superiority of the framework over traditional platforms in terms of cost reduction, transparency, and investor trust. A case study focused on the Turkish market illustrates the practical benefits of blockchain adoption in equity crowdfunding, particularly in navigating local regulatory and financial complexities. This approach provides a scalable, secure, and accessible solution for modern crowdfunding ecosystems, while reducing the costs of platforms and increasing the trust of investors and backers in crowdfunding projects. Keywords Blockchain, stablecoins, crowdfunding, tokenization, and compliance
Nikolaus Holzer, Keyi Wang, Kairong Xiao, Xiao-Yang Liu Yanglet
Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to $1,746\times$ using $2,048$ parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to $4.17\%$ and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to $0.21$. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.
With the growing popularity and rising value of cryptocurrencies, skepticism surrounding this groundbreaking innovation persists. Many financial and business experts argue that the value created in the cryptocurrency realm resembles the generation of currency from thin air. However, a historical analysis of the fundamental concepts that have shaped money reveals striking parallels with past transformations in human society. This study extends these historical insights to the present era, demonstrating how enduring monetary concepts are once again redefining our understanding of money and reshaping its form. Additionally, we offer novel interpretations of cryptocurrency by linking the intrinsic nature of money, the communities it fosters, and the cryptographic technologies that have provided the infrastructure for this transformative shift.
Danilo Rafael de Lima Cabral, Pedro Antonino, Augusto Sampaio
The Ethereum blockchain has a \emph{gas system} that associates operations with a cost in gas units. Two central concepts of this system are the \emph{gas limit} assigned by the issuer of a transaction and the \emph{gas used} by a transaction. The former is a budget that must not be exhausted before the completion of the transaction execution; otherwise, the execution fails. Therefore, it seems rather essential to determine the \emph{minimum gas limit} that ensures the execution of a transaction will not abort due to the lack of gas. Despite its practical relevance, this concept has not been properly addressed. In the literature, gas used and minimum gas limit are conflated. This paper proposes a precise notion of minimum gas limit and how it can differ from gas used by a transaction; this is also demonstrated with a quantitative study on real transactions of the Ethereum blockchain. Another significant contribution is the proposition of a fairly precise estimator for each of the two metrics. Again, the confusion between these concepts has led to the creation of estimators only for the gas used by a transaction. We demonstrate that the minimum gas limit for the state of the Ethereum blockchain (after the block) $t$ can serve as a near-perfect estimation for the execution of the transaction at block $t + Δ$, where $Δ\leq 11$; the same holds for estimating gas used. These precise estimators can be very valuable in helping the users predict the gas budget of transactions and developers in optimising their smart contracts; over and underestimating gas used and minimum gas limit can lead to a number of practical issues. Overall, this paper serves as an important reference for blockchain developers and users as to how the gas system really works.
This paper provides a brief overview of the ongoing financial revolution, which extends beyond the emergence of cryptocurrencies as a digital medium of exchange. At its core, this revolution is driven by a paradigm shift rooted in the technological advancements of blockchain and the foundational principles of Islamic economics. Together, these elements offer a transformative framework that challenges traditional financial systems, emphasizing transparency, equity, and decentralized governance. The paper highlights the implications of this shift and its potential to reshape the global economic landscape.
Mohammad Shahab Sepehri, Asal Mehradfar, Mahdi Soltanolkotabi, Salman Avestimehr
Predicting Bitcoin price remains a challenging problem due to the high volatility and complex non-linear dynamics of cryptocurrency markets. Traditional time-series models, such as ARIMA and GARCH, and recurrent neural networks, like LSTMs, have been widely applied to this task but struggle to capture the regime shifts and long-range dependencies inherent in the data. In this work, we propose CryptoMamba, a novel Mamba-based State Space Model (SSM) architecture designed to effectively capture long-range dependencies in financial time-series data. Our experiments show that CryptoMamba not only provides more accurate predictions but also offers enhanced generalizability across different market conditions, surpassing the limitations of previous models. Coupled with trading algorithms for real-world scenarios, CryptoMamba demonstrates its practical utility by translating accurate forecasts into financial outcomes. Our findings signal a huge advantage for SSMs in stock and cryptocurrency price forecasting tasks.
Ozan Solmaz, Lioba Heimbach, Yann Vonlanthen, Roger Wattenhofer
Layer 2 rollups are rapidly absorbing DeFi activity, securing over $40 billion and accounting for nearly half of Ethereum's DEX volume by Q1 2025, yet their MEV dynamics remain understudied. We address this gap by defining and quantifying optimistic MEV, a form of speculative, on-chain MEV whose detection and execution logic reside largely on-chain in smart contracts. As a result of their speculative nature and lack of off-chain opportunity verification, optimistic MEV transactions frequently decide not to execute any trades. In this work, we focus on cyclic arbitrage, which we find is predominantly executed as optimistic MEV on Layer 2s. Using our multi-stage identification pipeline on Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism, we show that in Q1 2025, transactions from cyclic arbitrage contracts account for over 50% of on-chain gas on Base and Optimism and 7% on Arbitrum, driven mainly by "interaction" probes (on-chain computations searching for arbitrage). This speculative probing indicates that cyclic arbitrage on Layer 2s is predominantly executed as optimistic MEV and contributes to generally keeping blocks on Base and Optimism persistently full. Despite consuming over half of on-chain gas, these optimistic MEV transactions pay less than one quarter of total gas fees. Cross-network comparison reveals divergent success rates, differing patterns of code reuse, and sensitivity to varying sequencer ordering and block production times. Finally, OLS regressions link optimistic MEV trade count to ETH volatility, retail trading activity, and DEX aggregator usage. Together, these findings show that optimistic MEV has become a major source of persistent spam-like transaction activity on Layer 2s, dominating blockspace with low-value probes and reshaping the composition of on-chain activity.
Q&A websites rely on user-generated responses, with incentives such as reputation scores or monetary rewards often offered. While some users may find it intrinsically rewarding to assist others, studies indicate that payment can improve the quality and speed of answers. However, traditional payment processors impose minimum thresholds that many Q&A inquiries fall below. The introduction of Bitcoin enabled direct digital value transfer, yet frequent micropayments remain challenging. Recent advancements like the Lightning Network now allow frictionless micropayments by reducing costs and minimising reliance on intermediaries. This development fosters an "Internet of Value," where transferring even small amounts of money is as simple as sharing data. This study investigates integrating Lightning Network-based micropayment strategies into Q&A platforms, aiming to create a knowledge market free of minimum payment barriers. A survey was conducted to address the gap below the $2 payment level identified in prior research. Responses confirmed that incentives for asking and answering weaken as payments decrease. Findings reveal even minimal payments, such as £0.01, significantly encourage higher quality and effort in responses. The study recommends micropayment incentives for service-oriented applications, particularly Q&A platforms. By leveraging the Lightning Network to remove barriers, a more open marketplace can emerge, improving engagement and outcomes. Further research is needed to confirm if users follow through on reported intentions when spending funds.
In recent years, fine-grained sentiment analysis in finance has gained significant attention, but the scarcity of entity-level datasets remains a key challenge. To address this, we have constructed the largest English and Chinese financial entity-level sentiment analysis datasets to date. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel two-stage sentiment analysis approach called Self-aware In-context Learning Correction (SILC). The first stage involves fine-tuning a base large language model to generate pseudo-labeled data specific to our task. In the second stage, we train a correction model using a GNN-based example retriever, which is informed by the pseudo-labeled data. This two-stage strategy has allowed us to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the newly constructed datasets, advancing the field of financial sentiment analysis. In a case study, we demonstrate the enhanced practical utility of our data and methods in monitoring the cryptocurrency market. Our datasets and code are available at https://github.com/NLP-Bin/SILC-EFSA.
Manuel Bolz, Kevin Brundler, Liam Kane, Panagiotis Patsias · 8 authors
Cryptocurrency markets often face manipulation through prevalent pump-and-dump (P&D) schemes, where self-organized Telegram groups, some exceeding two million members, artificially inflate target cryptocurrency prices. These groups sell premium access to inside information, worsening information asymmetry and financial risks for subscribers and all investors. This paper presents a real-time prediction pipeline to forecast target coins and alert investors to possible P&D schemes. In a Poloniex case study, the model accurately identified the target coin among the top five from 50 random coins in 24 out of 43 (55.81%) P&D events. The pipeline uses advanced natural language processing (NLP) to classify Telegram messages, identifying 2,079 past pump events and detecting new ones in real-time.
Recent advancements have underscored the potential of large language model (LLM)-based agents in financial decision-making. Despite this progress, the field currently encounters two main challenges: (1) the lack of a comprehensive LLM agent framework adaptable to a variety of financial tasks, and (2) the absence of standardized benchmarks and consistent datasets for assessing agent performance. To tackle these issues, we introduce \textsc{InvestorBench}, the first benchmark specifically designed for evaluating LLM-based agents in diverse financial decision-making contexts. InvestorBench enhances the versatility of LLM-enabled agents by providing a comprehensive suite of tasks applicable to different financial products, including single equities like stocks, cryptocurrencies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, we assess the reasoning and decision-making capabilities of our agent framework using thirteen different LLMs as backbone models, across various market environments and tasks. Furthermore, we have curated a diverse collection of open-source, multi-modal datasets and developed a comprehensive suite of environments for financial decision-making. This establishes a highly accessible platform for evaluating financial agents' performance across various scenarios.
Arash Peik, Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki, Amin Milani Fard, Mehdi Agha Sarram
Organizing and managing cryptocurrency portfolios and decision-making on transactions is crucial in this market. Optimal selection of assets is one of the main challenges that requires accurate prediction of the price of cryptocurrencies. In this work, we categorize the financial time series into several similar subseries to increase prediction accuracy by learning each subseries category with similar behavior. For each category of the subseries, we create a deep learning model based on the attention mechanism to predict the next step of each subseries. Due to the limited amount of cryptocurrency data for training models, if the number of categories increases, the amount of training data for each model will decrease, and some complex models will not be trained well due to the large number of parameters. To overcome this challenge, we propose to combine the time series data of other cryptocurrencies to increase the amount of data for each category, hence increasing the accuracy of the models corresponding to each category.
The rapid growth of memecoins within the Web3 ecosystem, driven by platforms like Pump.fun, has made it easier for anyone to create tokens. However, this democratization has also led to an explosion of low-quality or bot-generated projects, often motivated by short-term financial gain. This overwhelming influx of speculative tokens creates a challenge in distinguishing viable memecoins from those that are unlikely to succeed. To address this issue, we introduce CoinVibe, a comprehensive multimodal dataset designed to evaluate the viability of memecoins. CoinVibe integrates textual descriptions, visual content (logos), and community data (user comments, timestamps, and number of likes) to provide a holistic view of a memecoin's potential. In addition, we present CoinCLIP, a novel framework that leverages the Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) model, augmented with lightweight modules and community data integration, to improve classification accuracy. By combining visual and textual representations with community insights, CoinCLIP provides a robust, data-driven approach to filter out low-quality or bot-driven projects. This research aims to help creators and investors identify high-potential memecoins, while also offering valuable insights into the factors that contribute to their long-term success. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/hwlongCUHK/CoinCLIP.git.
This research provides a critical analysis regarding the way blockchain is being implemented in the financial industry, highlighting its vital role in promoting green finance, guaranteeing compliance with regulations, improving supply chain finance, boosting decentralized finance (DeFi), and strengthening the Internet of Things (IoT). It discusses how blockchain's inherent attributes could significantly boost transparency, operational efficiency, and security across these domains while also addressing the pressing challenges of scalability, system integration, and the evolving regulatory landscape.
Abstract This article introduces a blockchain-based insurance scheme that integrates parametric and collaborative elements. A pool of investors, referred to as surplus providers, locks funds in a smart contract, enabling blockchain users to underwrite parametric insurance contracts. These contracts automatically trigger compensation when predefined conditions are met. The collaborative aspect is embodied in the generation of tokens, which are distributed to surplus providers. These tokens represent each participant’s share of the surplus and grant voting rights for management decisions. The smart contract is developed in Solidity, a high-level programming language for the Ethereum blockchain, and deployed on the Sepolia testnet, with data processing and analysis conducted using Python. In addition, open-source code is provided and main research challenges are identified, so that further research can be carried out to overcome limitations of this first proof of concept.
This paper investigates the evolving landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi) by examining its foundational concepts, research trends, and ecosystem. A bibliometric analysis was conducted to identify thematic clusters and track the evolution of DeFi research. Additionally, a thematic review was performed to analyze the roles and interactions of key participants within the DeFi ecosystem, focusing on its opportunities and inherent risks. The bibliometric analysis identified a progression in research priorities, transitioning from an initial focus on technological innovation to addressing sustainability, environmental impacts, and regulatory challenges. Key thematic clusters include decentralization, smart contracts, tokenization, and sustainability concerns. The analysis of participants highlighted the roles of developers, liquidity providers, auditors, and regulators while identifying critical risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, liquidity constraints, and regulatory uncertainties. The study underlines the transformative potential of DeFi to enhance financial inclusion and transparency while emphasizing the need for robust security frameworks and regulatory oversight to ensure long-term stability. This paper comprehensively explains the DeFi ecosystem by integrating bibliometric and thematic analyses. It offers valuable insights for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers, contributing to the ongoing discourse on the sustainable development and integration of DeFi into the global financial system.
Machine learning is critical for innovation and efficiency in financial markets, offering predictive models and data-driven decision-making. However, challenges such as missing data, lack of transparency, untimely updates, insecurity, and incompatible data sources limit its effectiveness. Blockchain technology, with its transparency, immutability, and real-time updates, addresses these challenges. We present a framework for integrating high-frequency on-chain data with low-frequency off-chain data, providing a benchmark for addressing novel research questions in economic mechanism design. This framework generates modular, extensible datasets for analyzing economic mechanisms such as the Transaction Fee Mechanism, enabling multi-modal insights and fairness-driven evaluations. Using four machine learning techniques, including linear regression, deep neural networks, XGBoost, and LSTM models, we demonstrate the framework's ability to produce datasets that advance financial research and improve understanding of blockchain-driven systems. Our contributions include: (1) proposing a research scenario for the Transaction Fee Mechanism and demonstrating how the framework addresses previously unexplored questions in economic mechanism design; (2) providing a benchmark for financial machine learning by open-sourcing a sample dataset generated by the framework and the code for the pipeline, enabling continuous dataset expansion; and (3) promoting reproducibility, transparency, and collaboration by fully open-sourcing the framework and its outputs. This initiative supports researchers in extending our work and developing innovative financial machine-learning models, fostering advancements at the intersection of machine learning, blockchain, and economics.
Dynamic Spectrum Sharing can enhance spectrum resource utilization by promoting the dynamic distribution of spectrum resources. However, to effectively implement dynamic spectrum resource allocation, certain mechanisms are needed to incentivize primary users to proactively share their spectrum resources. This paper, based on the ERC404 standard and integrating Non-Fungible Token and Fungible Token technologies, proposes a spectrum securitization model to incentivize spectrum resource sharing and implements it on the Ethereum test net.
This research proposes the development of a next generation airline reservation system that incorporates the Cloud microservices, distributed artificial intelligence modules and the blockchain technology to improve on the efficiency, safety and customer satisfaction. The traditional reservation systems encounter issues related to the expansion of the systems, the integrity of the data provided and the level of service offered to the customers, which is the main focus of this architecture through the modular and data centric design approaches. This will allow different operations such as reservations, payments, and customer data management among others to be performed separately thereby facilitating high availability of the system by 30% and enhancing performance of the system by 40% on its scalability. Such systems contain AI driven modules that utilize the past booking patterns along with the profile of the customer to estimate the demand and make recommendations, which increases to 25 % of customer engagement. Moreover, blockchain is effective in engaging an incorruptible ledger system for the all transactions therefore mitigating fraud incidences and increasing the clarity by 20%. The system was subjected to analysis using a simulator and using machine learning evaluations that rated it against other conventional systems. The results show that there were clear enhancements in the speed of transactions where the rates of secure data processing rose by 35%, and the system response time by 15 %. The system can also be used for other high transaction industries like logistics and hospitality. This structural design is indicative of how the use of advanced technologies will revolutionize the airline reservation sector. The implications are growing effectiveness, improvement in security and greater customer contentment.
Marcin Wątorek, Marcin Królczyk, Jarosław Kwapień, Tomasz Stanisz · 5 authors
Multifractality is a concept that helps compactly grasping the most essential features of the financial dynamics. In its fully developed form, this concept applies to essentially all mature financial markets and even to more liquid cryptocurrencies traded on the centralized exchanges. A new element that adds complexity to cryptocurrency markets is the possibility of decentralized trading. Based on the extracted tick-by-tick transaction data from the Universal Router contract of the Uniswap decentralized exchange, from June 6, 2023, to June 30, 2024, the present study using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) shows that even though liquidity on these new exchanges is still much lower compared to centralized exchanges convincing traces of multifractality are already emerging on this new trading as well. The resulting multifractal spectra are however strongly left-side asymmetric which indicates that this multifractality comes primarily from large fluctuations and small ones are more of the uncorrelated noise type. What is particularly interesting here is the fact that multifractality is more developed for time series representing transaction volumes than rates of return. On the level of these larger events a trace of multifractal cross-correlations between the two characteristics is also observed.
Mingzhe Li, Bo Gao, Kentaroh Toyoda, Yechao Yang · 12 authors
Traditional blockchain systems, such as Ethereum, typically rely on a \emph{single volatile cryptocurrency for transaction fees}. This leads to fluctuating transaction fee prices and limits the flexibility of users' payment options. To address these issues, we propose MStableChain, which leverage multiple stablecoins as native tokens for transaction fee settlements, thus ensuring stable transaction fees and flexible payment options. To address the challenges of mass adoption and practicality, we propose several core designs. To maintain compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) for mass adoption while supporting multiple native stablecoins, MStableChain employs a multi-currency units, multi-type RPCs mechanism. This mechanism enables the system to handle multiple stablecoins without altering the EVM or requiring changes to user applications. Furthermore, an oracle-based gas fee adjustment mechanism is proposed to manage exchange rates between different stablecoins, ensuring equitable transaction costs across various currencies. The system also introduces a secure, on-chain voting-based management protocol for the administrative functions related to these stablecoins. Experimental results from a prototype implementation demonstrate that MStableChain provides stable transaction fee prices, high effectiveness, and good usability.
Turing completeness has made Ethereum smart contracts attractive to blockchain developers and attackers alike. To increase code security, many tools can now spot most known vulnerabilities$-$at the cost of production efficiency. Recent studies show false-positive ratios over 99% in state-of-the-art technologies: this makes them impractical for use in industry and have raised questions on the direction of academic research. In this work we show how integrating and extending current analyses is not only feasible, but also a next logical step in smart-contract security. We propose light-weight static checks on the morphology and dynamics of Solidity code, stemming from a developer-centric notion of vulnerability, that we use to verify the output of other tools, flag potential false alarms, and suggest verifications. Besides technical details we implemented an open-source prototype. For three top-10 vulnerabilities it flags 324 warnings of other tools as false-positives, in 60 verified de-duplicated smart contracts selected from the blockchain by the presence of true (and false) vulnerabilities. This amounts to a 92%- to 100%-reduction in the number of false-positives for these vulnerabilities.