The study has proved that the use of V-statistics is a reliable tool for assessing the forecast horizon of the entrepreneurship model. According to the results obtained, the forecast time horizon for most of the studied cryptocurrencies does not exceed 30 days when using daily observations. Computer experiments have confirmed the effectiveness of the implementation of machine learning methods and algorithms for solving the problems of forecasting the short-term dynamics of financial instruments, for example, cryptocurrency. In particular, a BART model has been developed or ARIMA-ARFIMA ensembles can be used as the basis for algorithms for automated trading systems designed for online trading. The developed methodological approach and recommendations on the practical application of the system of economic and mathematical models based on the tools of binary autoregressive trees and data mining allow developing a short-term forecast of innovative financial instruments in order to make effective investment decisions on the crypto market. A comprehensive analysis of the state and dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, their features, advantages, and disadvantages allows concluding that despite significant fluctuations in their exchange value and gaps in legislative regulation, digital currencies are a modern stage in the evolution of means of payment. Therefore, crypto assets and IT technologies on their platforms quickly adapt in the modern globalized world and will occupy a worthy place in the innovative digital economy.
The article describes the current topic of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin Cash. We will discuss the history of the emergence of this cryptocurrency, its advantages, the specifics of mining, its differences from ordinary bitcoin. We will also touch upon the options for storing currency.
The aim of this work is to study the pricing in the cryptocurrency market and applying cryptocurrencies by the Bank of Russia for its monetary policy. The research objectives are to identify the cyclical nature of price dynamics, to study market maturity and potential risks that have a long-term positive relationship with the financial stability of the cryptocurrency market. The author uses the Hurst method with the Amihud illiquidity measure to study the resistance of four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Dash) and their evolution over the past five years. The study results in the author’s conclusion that the cryptocurrency market has entered a new stage of development, which means a reduced possibility to have excess profits when investing in the most liquid cryptocurrencies in the future. However, buying new high-risk tools provides opportunities for speculative income. The author concludes that illiquid cryptocurrencies exhibit strong inverse anti-persistence in the form of a low Hurst exponent. A trend investing strategy may help obtain abnormal profits in the cryptocurrency market. The Bank of Russia could partially apply digital currency to implement monetary policy, which would soften the business cycle and control the inflation. If Russia accepts the law ‘’On Digital Financial Assets’’ and legalizes cryptocurrencies after the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Russia might act as a lender of last resort and offer crypto loans. Целью данной работы является изучение ценообразования на рынке криптовалют и возможностей их применения Банком России при осуществлении своей монетарной политики. Задачи исследования: выявление цикличности динамики цен, изучение степени сформированности рынка и потенциальных рисков, имеющих долгосрочную положительную связь с финансовой стабильностью рынка криптовалют. Автор использует методы Херста с коэффициентом неликвидности Амихуда, чтобы изучить степень стойкости четырех криптовалют (BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple и Dash) и их эволюцию в течение последних пяти лет. В результате исследования автор выяснил, что рынок криптовалют вышел на новую стадию развития, что означает снижение возможности получения сверхнормальных доходов при инвестировании в наиболее ликвидные криптовалюты в будущем. Однако остаются возможности для получения спекулятивного дохода при покупке новых высокорискованных инструментов. Сделан вывод, что неликвидные криптовалюты проявляют сильную обратную антиперсистентность в виде низкого коэффициента Херста. Для получения аномальной прибыли на крипторынке может быть использована трендовая инвестиционная стратегия. Банк России мог бы частично применять цифровую валюту при осуществлении денежно-кредитной политики, что позволило бы смягчить деловой цикл и контролировать уровень инфляции. В случае принятия закона «О цифровых финансовых активах» и легализации криптовалют в России после экономического кризиса, вызванного пандемией Covid-19, Банк России мог бы действовать как кредитор последней инстанции, предлагая кредиты в криптовалюте.
With the rise of digitalization, myriad new technologies are currently revolutionizing most, if not all, markets. One such technology that is receiving particular attention from businesses, private market participants, the financial sector, and governments alike is the blockchain. Despite its increasing popularity, most jurisdictions currently fail to adequately regulate it, meaning that businesses cannot exploit the full potential of blockchain technology and its various applications. This article explains how blockchains function and delineates their associated compliance risks. Here, particular attention will be paid to both decentralized cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. How decentralized cryptocurrencies could potentially be abused for money laundering, terrorism financing, and corruption purposes will be illustrated, and different legislation and international approaches to dealing with blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will be highlighted. Lastly, the impact of blockchain technology and its implications for actors in the digitalized economy will be discussed.
Nick Große, David Leisen, Tan Gürpinar, Robert Schulze Forsthövel · 6 authors
In the course of the digital transformation, organizations are not only facing increasing volatility of the markets, but also increasing customer requirements and thus an increasing complexity in production and logistics systems. Therefore, production plants need to become more flexible by transforming conventional production systems to Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS). CPPS allow organizations to dynamically react to fluctuations in demand and markets and to introduce new product lines quickly and effectively. The challenge in implementing CPPS is to handle and store relevant data streams between Cyber-physical objects in a secure but transparent way. As CPPS involve a high level of decentralization, the data storage can either be combined with centralized IT-solutions like a Cloud or utilize decentralized IT-technologies like Edge Computing or Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT) like Blockchains. The paper addresses the suitability of centralized and decentralized technologies in terms of dealing with data streams in the fields of CPPS. For this purpose, based on a paper exploration, appropriate evaluation criteria are derived, followed by a comparison of exemplary centralized and decentralized technologies. The outcome is a qualitative evaluation of the supplement of each technology regarding its suitability of dealing with data streams.
Open access
Economic and Technological Systems Analysis
Digital Transformation in Industry
Advanced Research in Systems and Signal Processing
The construction industry has not advanced as quickly as other industries in the aspects of time, cost, and quality; but Blockchain could be the solution. While there have been improvements in the construction sector such as BIM or Prefabrication, nothing compares to those in other industries. This brings the search for a new technology that would boost construction to a new level of productivity. One technology that could potentially do this is Blockchain. Blockchain, defined in a big picture, is like a shared google sheet where anybody could add information but nobody could delete it. This technology could change the way construction is done and add value to the industry with increased productivity and transparency. This paper analyzed whether Blockchain Technology would be useful to the construction industry, and to gain knowledge of Blockchain’s uses in the field. The methodology used to find this information were semi-structured interviews with information presented in a summarized form. The researcher spoke to experts in the field of blockchain as well as individuals with no experience in Blockchain. Findings revealed that this technology could be beneficial for speeding up the contractual processes, payment processes, and tracking quality.
Andrey S. Khadzhi, Sergey V. Zareshin, Oleg V. Tarakanov
The article presents a method for analyzing the activity of cold and abandoned wallets on the example of blockchain Litecoin. The implementation of the software for searching correlations in the behavior of cold wallets using the API resources for interaction with blockchain Litecoin in Python 3.7 is described. Also, the statistics of the approximate ratio of conditionally thrown wallets of cryptocurrency in blockchain at the moment is presented and the analysis of the received data is given.
Modern energy grids are rapidly evolving into complex cyber-physical systems. Decentralisation of energy resources, shift away from the current traditional centralised model of power supply, the widespread introduction of new information technologies requires the creation of a safe, efficient and reliable cyber infrastructure that can ensure the proper level of confidentiality and automation of the processes of buying and selling electricity. The growing popularity of Blockchain distributed ledger technology can solve these challenges. The technology provides for distributed computing, a secure environment for interaction between network members and reliable storage of information. Blockchain ensures that each network member isa supplier of energy, rather than only a consumer, and organises a “digital” environment for this. At the same time, energy will be sold directly between the members, with no middleman, using smart meters and adaptive algorithms for reciprocal payment that interact in real time. In 2017, Blockchain was rated by top executives as a key breakthrough digital technology for the next five years. According to the Deloitte 2019 poll, 53 % companies called Blockchain a “strategical priority” technology, a 10 % rise y.o.y. At the same time, projects that have entered the market and received financing over the past two years are more complex and industrially spesific. Among the leading countries are USA, Germany and the UK. Half of the Blockchain projects in the electric power industry are registered in five states: USA (50 projects), Germany (22 projects), Great Britain (15 projects), Australia (13 projects) and Japan (13 projects). At the same time, Russia accounted for only 4 projects.
Delay in progress payment is a widespread problem in the construction industry which adversely affects the entire processes of the projects. Difficulties in the cashflow of the contracts, and consequently the subcontractors are the main consequences of delayed payments. Despite its significance, few research focused on development of methods guaranteeing timely payments of the participants throughout the project. Recent developments in blockchain and smart contract technologies presents a potential for development of a secure platform for the construction projects. Smart contract based payment systems not only provides an opportunity for minimizing the payment problems, but also enables building trust among the project parties for successful completion of construction projects. By taking advantage of the blockchain and smart contract technologies, this thesis aims to design and develop smart contract-based payment systems for guaranteed and timely payment of construction projects. A Smart Contract System for Security of Payment of Construction Contracts (SMTSEC)is presented to ensure security of payment of construction progress payments. , BIM-smart-contract-based progress payment system (BIMSMRTPAY) is developed to expedite the conventional progress payment process and to minimize potential payment disputes. The smart contract based retention payment system (RETPAY) is designed to expedite and automate the retention payments. The contributions and limitations of the SMTSEC, BIMSMRTPAY, and RETPAY are illustrated and discussed through case projects.
Die Blockchain Technologie hat das Potential die Wirtschaft im Zeitalter der Digitalisierung zu revolutionieren. In zentralisierten Organisationen werden die Entscheidungen von einem Verantwortlichen oder einer Gruppe getroffen. In der Blockchain gibt es keinen bestimmten Entscheidungsträger. Um eine Entscheidung zu treffen, muss ein Konsens erreicht werden. Um diesen Konsens zu erreichen, wird von jeder Blockchain Plattform ein so genannter Konsens-Mechanismus eingesetzt. Damit Blockchains ihr volles ökonomisches Potential ausschöpfen können, muss eine gute Skalierbarkeit gegeben sein. Doch dazu müssen Kompromisse in anderen Bereichen eingegangen werden. Das Blockchain-Trilemma besagt, dass man die drei Haupteigenschaften Skalierbarkeit, Sicherheit und Dezentralität immer zulasten der anderen erreicht, bzw. dass alle drei Eigenschaften nicht gleichzeitig maximiert werden können. Die implementierten Konsens-Mechanismen versuchen dieses Dilemma mit unterschiedlichen Ansätzen zu lösen. Daher sind sie einer der wichtigsten Aspekte sowie Unterscheidungsmerkmale der Blockchain Plattformen. Diese Arbeit bietet einen Überblick sowie eine technische Analyse über die zur Zeit existierenden Konsens-Mechanismen. Darüber hinaus werden Smart Contract Plattformen analysiert und die dort eingesetzten Konsens-Mechanismen detailliert beleuchtet. Außerdem wird die Umstellung des Konsens-Mechanismus von Proof of Work zu Proof of Stake in der Ethereum-Plattform anhand Ihres Einflusses auf zukünftige Smart Contracts analysiert. Die Analyse liefert einen Überblick über 62 Konsens-Mechanismen und 21 Smart Contract-Plattformen die im Moment eingesetzt werden. Weiter werden Kriterienkataloge vorgestellt, welche für den Vergleich von Smart Contract-Plattformen sowie deren Konsens-Mechanismen eingesetzt werden können.
СМАРТ-КОНТРАКТ В УСЛОВИЯХ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ НОРМАТИВНОЙ ПЛАТФОРМЫ ЭКОСИСТЕМЫ ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИИсследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке
Nakul R. Padalkar, Alireza Sheikh-Zadeh, Jaeki Song
Firms are increasingly interested in Blockchain Smart Contracts as a solution for the visibility of the digital supply chain. Blockchain can help realize the cost reductions by providing a “single version of the truth” for a firm and its trading partners. By sharing important information such as inventory levels, manufacturing performance and operations indicators, and order and shipment information, firms can eliminate the delays and uncertainties in the information that contributes to “the bullwhip effect” and inflates required buffer stock. This paper focuses on the impact of blockchain in an inventory operation to cope up with information discrepancies. We present and compare the cost differences between an existing technology (like EDI) and blockchain. Using technologies like blockchain and smart contracts will enable a more transparent, sustainable, and resilient supply chain.
The fragmented market of freight transportation imposes several inefficiency costs as a result of delay, double-spending, disputes, and cancellations. While in such competitive market, every player seeks its own profit, optimisation at individual level also becomes harder due to invisibility and disconnectivity. Although tackling some of these issues are doable by synchronization, encryption and integration, it seems that blockchain not only incorporates all these solutions in one package, but also may provide other economic benefits. This paper discusses blockchain’ s potential in improving the inefficiencies in maritime supply chain and logistics, as well as limitations and challenges.
The use of blockchain technology is one of the most promising areas in the development of the digital economy. The high potential of its applicability, obvious benefits from reducing the number of transactions and cutting costs mean that the implementation of blockchain technology is inevitable in social and labor relations (SLR). The impediment to this process is the absence of an established institutional environment that would determine uniform characteristics of the technology, language, ontology, and principles of using distributed ledgers. The purpose of this study is to develop recommendations for establishing framework standards for the application of blockchain technology in SLR. The ecosystem approach, practical analysis and institutional synthesis are used as research methods. As a result, the study proposes a set of areas for standardization of the application of distributed ledger technology in SLR. The pool of basic standardization areas includes institutional, technological, relational (stakeholder) conditions as well as conditions for ensuring security. Analysis of the national project (program) “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation” identified areas for developing standards for the use of blockchain technology in SLR. In addition, the study described serious risks and obstacles to the implementation of digital technologies in this sphere of economic relations.
The article describes the main trends in the field of intellectualization of transport systems and mobility. The possibility of using the Blockchain technology in transport systems is considered. The article proposes to use Blockchain technology for increasing cybersecurity through the creation of a safe and reliable system for sending parameters of the current state of each vehicle using the signals of neighboring vehicles. The authors have developed a tracking system for car actions using the Blockchain system based on the Exonum platform. Mathematical foundations of this system are presented in the article. Data input and confirmation of their acceptance of the transaction is carried out using an Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). ECDSA security is related to the complexity of the private key search task described in the article. This largely relates to the management of large-scale systems, such as transport system. Failure to follow simple rules and recommendations can lead to serious consequences, such as road accidents and congestion. Therefore, the proposed system can assist in making decisions with autonomous cars and in investigating crimes as well as traffic offences.
Michael Henke, Christoph Besenfelder, Sandra Kaczmarek, Michael Fiolka
Digitalization requires a new form of management to master the transformation process of corporations and companies. The Dortmund Management Model structures the focus areas of the digital transformation along the management tasks goal, planning, decision, realization and monitoring as well as the common socio-technical subsystems technological, organizational and personnel - enriched by a fourth dimension: information. Additionally, the acceleration factors transformation, migration and change management are taken into account. This paper embraces a vision for a persistent management of production and supply chain networks in order to achieve a holistic Management 4.0. The emerging developments of technology, methods, tools and models in production and supply chain research are connected and merged into a big picture of digital supply chain management and logistics. The interfaces between management tasks show specific characteristics of digital business processes in particular, which are hereinafter exemplarily outlined: New business models and value-creation networks are based on adaption intelligent production systems, which are interconnected with digital models for continuous planning and reconfiguration. At the shop floor and between sites orders are completed by autonomous guided vehicles (AGV) with intelligent load carriers. Decentralized negotiations and decisions across company boundaries concluded with smart contracts are enabling reasonable and sustainable distribution of the value creation processes. Humans are still in the center of action – abilities are developed by integrated competence management, new learning approaches and human-centered assistance systems coupled with AI-based decision-making support. New types of organizations allow a synergetic collaboration of humans and machines. The benefit of integrating new production and transport technologies becomes assessable and accelerates the ongoing renewal of existing networks. This paper provides an overview of possible potential and connecting factors by linking different technological developments towards supply chain, logistics, production and management research and shows further research demands.
The coding and deployment of smart contracts in the construction industry are challenging because of the gap between the generality of existing modeling approaches for such contracts and the pertinence of business logic to construction management. This research proposes a formal model for smart contracts in the context of quality acceptance in the construction industry to reduce the threshold for applying smart contract technology. First, a conceptual scenario of smart contract-based quality acceptance in construction is analyzed. Second, a finite state machine-based model is proposed to formalize smart contracts for quality acceptance. Lastly, a Hyperledger-based case study is performed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed formal model. This study contributes to the industrial application of formal modeling approaches for smart contracts in the field of construction.
Task: to develop a concept for implementing distributed Ledger technologies (blockchain) in passenger railway transport and to justify the approach to evaluating the effectiveness of these technologies. Methods: content analysis of special industry research, analysis of specialized statistical reporting on the use of digital systems and technologies, survey, mathematical modeling, and others. Result. The author analyzes the trends of the multimodal passenger transport market, in particular the European segment. It is established that due to the significant development of multimodality in passenger transport, transport organizations will be able to meet modern customer requests mainly when switching to network technologies, mainly to digital systems of distributed transaction data registry. The concept of passenger blockchain in transport is proposed: its functionality, platform composition, digital modules, additional services for passengers. The effects resulting from the introduction of blockchain in passenger transportation are systematized, the sources of their occurrence, and their quantitative assessment for the passenger railway complex of Russia is given. Practical significance: the results of the study deepen methodological developments in the field of economic evaluation of investment projects for the introduction of digitalization technologies. They are in demand by managers of transport companies, development specialists, and analysts who evaluate digital technologies.
Anton Krivonogov, Maxim Repin, Nii "Voskhod", Nikolay Fedorov
Every year, the technology of using smart contracts is attracting more and more attention from users due to the unique advantages that it possesses: automatic execution of transactions in a traceable and unchanging way without third party authorization. At the same time, a smart contract is one of the most vulnerable elements in distributed ledger systems, which can be susceptible to attack by intruders. The aim of the research is to develop a methodology that allows analyzing a smart contract for information security vulnerabilities and determining the security level of a smart contract before placing it in distributed ledger systems. Research methods: to achieve this goal, methods of static and dynamic analysis were studied, the most relevant information security vulnerabilities were identified, and parameters for calculating the criticality factor of vulnerability and the security level of a smart contract were determined. Result: a promising static-dynamic method for analyzing the vulnerabilities of a smart contract is proposed, which makes it possible to unambiguously determine the security level of a smart contract before its placement in the distributed ledger system. Its main parameters are set, and the reference security factors of a smart contract are determined. The complete algorithm of the static-dynamic method of analyzing a smart contract is described, and an example of a generated documentary security report based on the results of analyzing a smart contract is given.
Nikita V. Kuchin, Kirill O. Polyakov, Natalia G. Butakova
In this article, we describe the use of distributed ledger technology based on blockchain technology without mining to protect various kinds of transactions in corporate networks. The relevance of this topic comes from the rapid developments in the digitalization of the economy and other spheres of human activity. The digital economy has taken a strong position worldwide. Data are processed and transmitted electronically. At the same time, it becomes vulnerable to attacks of criminals and competitors during transfer and storage processes.The article proposes an approach to the protection of corporate transactions based on a distributed ledger with elements of blockchain technology in comparison with traditional methods.