Automated market makers (AMMs) quote prices from pool state rather than from a limit order book. AMM pools often stay close to a reference price because arbitrageurs correct profitable mispricing. A large part of decentralized finance therefore relies on a simple economic premise: once the AMM price drifts away from the reference price, arbitrage incentives push it back. This paper studies when that premise is strong enough to guarantee block-scale stability. We model the gap between the reference price and the AMM price as a stochastic tracking error, treat arbitrage as the corrective input, and place blockchain execution inside the loop through fees, discrete blocks, transaction ordering, delays, and transaction failure. The detailed execution layer is reduced to the total successful correction confirmed in each block. Under a block-level correction condition, we prove geometric ergodicity of the tracking error and obtain explicit one-step bounds that connect tracking quality to liquidity and execution quality. We also show in a constant-product example how fees, fixed execution costs, and local liquidity map into the no-trade band and the optimal corrective trade. Finally, we build empirical proxies for the theorem quantities from realized block data and use them to organize reduced and mechanism-focused simulations whose comparative statics are consistent with the theory. The contribution is to turn a basic economic intuition behind decentralized finance into a quantitative stability statement together with a tractable calibration interface.
\abstract{\textbf{Purpose:} This study addresses the lack of trust in ethical product labels by designing a blockchain platform grounded in the TAFES principles (Transparency, Accountability, Fairness, Ethics, Safety). It aims to bridge the gap between blockchain's theoretical transparency and a responsible, real-world implementation for certification ecosystems. \textbf{Design/Methodology/Approach:} Using Action Design Research, we developed a proof-of-concept platform for label authentication. A hybrid architecture records critical events on an Ethereum Layer-2 network for security, while supporting evidence is stored off-chain via IPFS and linked via content identifiers. The solution was validated through a coffee supply chain scenario. \textbf{Findings:} The proof of concept demonstrates how a TAFES-aligned blockchain platform can support verification of label claims without requiring trust in a single intermediary by creating tamper-evident provenance records and auditable certification evidence across multiple stakeholders. The design supports low-cost, near-real-time anchoring of supply chain events while mitigating adoption barriers related to scalability, privacy, and operational viability. \textbf{Originality/Value:} This research contributes an integrated ethical and technical blueprint for trustworthy label authentication systems by translating TAFES into implementable design requirements and evaluation checks, and validating them through an ADR driven proof of concept. It advances prior work by moving from the question of whether blockchain can help to the question of how it should be implemented responsibly in multi stakeholder certification ecosystems.}
Ignat Melnikov, Roman Vlasov, Vladimir Gorgadze, Andrey Seoev · 5 authors
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is a rapidly evolving segment of blockchain technology that enables a transformative approach to financial services through Web3 applications. By leveraging smart contracts, DeFi allows developers to build flexible and innovative financial instruments. Among the most prominent DeFi primitives by liquidity are decentralized exchange~(DEX) swap protocols~(such as Uniswap, Curve, and Balancer) that facilitate fast token-to-token exchanges. However, new exchange mechanisms also introduce new market inefficiencies that can be systematically exploited by arbitrageurs. This paper focuses on swap protocols based on the Automated Market Maker~(AMM), where the product of reserves is preserved as an invariant. We analyze the interaction between arbitrageurs and AMM liquidity pools and develop a mathematical model grounded in empirical pool configurations. Using this model, we derive bounds on the joint revenue of liquidity providers~(LPs) and arbitrageurs, propose a method to estimate the expected number of blocks until the occurrence of Impermanent Loss~(IL), and obtain a lower bound on the pool fee required to achieve a fixed target probability of staying in the Impermanent Gain (IG) zone within a block. The proposed framework extends existing LP risk-assessment methodologies by quantifying symbiotic profitability zones, providing a principled basis for fee selection that aligns LP-arbitrageur incentives and enhances market stability.
Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.
We present a graph-theoretic and convex optimization framework for multi-path routing in decentralized exchange networks, together with its implementation and empirical evaluation on Ethereum mainnet. The framework models the market as a directed token multigraph whose arcs carry AMM exchange functions. Routing is decomposed into two implemented layers: candidate path generation via gas-aware marginal k-shortest-path enumeration, where edge scores embed expected execution cost directly into graph traversal with an explicit pool-simple constraint tracked during path construction, and continuous flow allocation over the selected candidates solved as a concave maximization over a simplex with a per-pool price-impact cap. Under standard concavity and monotonicity assumptions, the KKT conditions imply marginal-output equalization across active paths. The central technical contribution is an improving-path certificate: after solving the allocation on k=20 candidate paths, the KKT multiplier is used as a threshold to determine via a single shortest-path query whether any omitted pool-simple path could improve the current solution; in our implementation the certificate confirms sufficiency in the majority of epochs. Execution is protected by an on-chain slippage tolerance enforced at the smart-contract level. We evaluate the implemented engine against four production DEX aggregators on repeated WETH-USDT quote observations across six trade sizes on Ethereum mainnet: median shortfall is below 5 bps across all sizes and top-3 quote rank exceeds 57% of epochs.
The rapid collapse of decentralized game economies, often characterized by the \textit{death spiral,} remains the most formidable barrier to the mass adoption of Web3 gaming. This paper proposes that the sustainability of an open game economy is predicated on three necessary and sufficient conditions: Anti-Sybil Resilience, Anti-Capital Dominance, and Anti-Inflationary Saturation. The first section establishes a theoretical proof of these conditions, arguing that the absence of any single dimension leads to systemic failure. The second section explores the dialectical relationship between these dimensions, illustrating how unchecked automation and capital-driven monopolies accelerate asset hyperinflation. In the third section, we introduce the Identity-Bound Asset Integrity Model (IBAIM) as a comprehensive technical solution. IBAIM utilizes Zero-Knowledge (ZK) biometric hashing and Account Abstraction (AA) to anchor asset utility to unique human identities through a privacy-preserving and regulatory-compliant architecture. By exogenizing biometric verification to trusted local environments and utilizing Zero-Knowledge Proofs of Identity (zk-PoI), the model ensures absolute user privacy. Furthermore, by implementing an Asymmetric Utility Decay (AUD) engine-whereby assets suffer a vertical 50% utility cliff upon secondary transfer-and an entropy-driven thermodynamic degradation mechanism., the model successfully decouples financial speculation from in-game merit. Finally, we apply this framework to analyze prominent historical failures in the GameFi sector, demonstrating that their collapse was an inevitable consequence of violating these core economic constraints. Our findings suggest that trading a degree of asset liquidity for system integrity is the only viable path toward long-term economic viability in decentralized virtual worlds.
Bitcoin transaction fees will become more important as the block subsidy declines, but fee formation is hard to study with blockchain data alone because the relevant queueing environment is unobserved. We develop and estimate a structural model of Bitcoin fee choice that treats the mempool as a market for scarce blockspace. We assemble a novel, high-frequency mempool panel, from a self-run Bitcoin node that records transaction arrivals, exits, block inclusion, fee-bumping events, and congestion snapshots. We characterize the fee market as a Vickery-Clarke-Groves mechanism and derive an equation to estimate fees. In the first-stage we estimate a monotone delay technology linking fee-rate priority and network state to expected confirmation delay. We then estimate how fees respond to that delay technology and to transaction characteristics. We find that congestion is the main determinant of delay; that the marginal value of priority is priced in fees, which is increasing in the gradient of confirmation time reduction per movement up in the fee queue; and that transactor choice of RBF, CPFP, and block conditions have economically important effects on fees.
Daniel Aronoff, F. Christopher Calabia, Anders Brownworth, Ashwanth Samuel · 5 authors
U.S. dollar stablecoins are increasingly used as payment and settlement instruments beyond cryptocurrency markets. With the enactment of the GENIUS Act in 2025, the United States established the first comprehensive federal framework governing their issuance, backing, and supervision. This paper evaluates the financial, technological, and regulatory risks that may arise as GENIUS-compliant stablecoins scale into mainstream use. We show that maintaining par-value redemption may depend not only on backing-asset quality, but also on the functioning of Treasury and repo markets, the balance-sheet capacity of broker-dealers, and the operational reliability of blockchain-based transaction rails. Even conservatively backed stablecoins can face stress from redemption surges, market-intermediation bottlenecks, or technological disruptions. We argue that durable stability will likely require an integrated approach spanning financial-market infrastructure, prudential regulation, and software governance. While grounded in U.S.\ law, the analysis identifies principles that are relevant for regulators in other jurisdictions developing stablecoin regimes.
Hongxu Su, Mingzhe Liu, Jie Xu, Xiaohua Jia · 5 authors
ERC-4337, the Ethereum account abstraction standard, simplifies account management and transaction fee payment in decentralized applications by introducing programmable smart contract wallets and gas sponsorship via paymasters. However, its heavy reliance on on-chain validation and frequent state updates incurs substantial gas overhead, leading to performance bottlenecks and limiting scalability in large-scale deployments. To mitigate these issues, we propose GasLiteAA, a framework that optimize ERC-4337 by offloading paymaster logic to Trusted Execution Environments (TEE). GasLiteAA delegates the secure execution of stateful gas sponsorship logic and user quota management to TEE, enforcing validation rules off-chain while anchoring their integrity on-chain via lightweight cryptographic attestations. This verifiable offloading architecture significantly reduces on-chain computation and storage costs without sacrificing verifiability or decentralization. Experimental results demonstrate that GasLiteAA substantially lowers transaction fees, while remaining fully compatible with Ethereum Layer 1. By balancing security, efficiency, and deployability, GasLiteAA provides a practical and scalable approach to gas sponsorship for account-abstraction-based decentralized applications.
Decentraland, a decentralized virtual reality platform operating within the expanding Metaverse ecosystem, utilizes its native MANA token to facilitate virtual asset transactions and governance. This study investigates the integration of Discord community sentiment with multi-modal financial data to enhance cryptocurrency price prediction within virtual world economies. We address: (1) identifying sentiment patterns within Decentraland's Discord community, and (2) evaluating the impact of multi-modal features on token return forecasting. Using a BERT-based large language model for sentiment analysis, we develop two LSTM architectures: a baseline incorporating historical prices and a multi-modal variant integrating sentiment scores, trading volume, and market capitalization. Results indicate predominantly neutral community sentiment with a positive skew. The multi-modal model significantly outperforms the price-only baseline in prediction accuracy. These findings demonstrate the predictive value of community-derived signals for virtual economy forecasting and establish a foundation for future research at the intersection of immersive virtual environments, natural language processing, and cryptocurrency market analysis.
The growing prominence of cryptocurrencies has triggered widespread public engagement and increased speculative activity, particularly on social media platforms. This study introduces a novel classification framework for identifying predictive statements in cryptocurrency-related tweets, focusing on five popular cryptocurrencies: Cardano, Matic, Binance, Ripple, and Fantom. The classification process is divided into two stages: Task 1 involves binary classification to distinguish between Predictive and Non-Predictive statements. Tweets identified as Predictive proceed to Task 2, where they are further categorized as Incremental, Decremental, or Neutral. To build a robust dataset, we combined manual and GPT-based annotation methods and utilized SenticNet to extract emotion features corresponding to each prediction category. To address class imbalance, GPT-generated paraphrasing was employed for data augmentation. We evaluated a wide range of machine learning, deep learning, and transformer-based models across both tasks. The results show that GPT-based balancing significantly enhanced model performance, with transformer models achieving the highest F1-score in Task 1, while traditional machine learning models performed best in Task 2. Furthermore, our emotion analysis revealed distinct emotional patterns associated with each prediction category across the different cryptocurrencies.
Stablecoins serve as the fundamental infrastructure for Decentralised Finance (DeFi), acting as the primary bridge between fiat currencies and the digital asset ecosystem. While peg stability is well-documented, the structural role stablecoins play in transmitting systemic risk to the broader market remains under-explored. This study uses copula-based approaches to quantify the transmission of volatility and activity from stablecoin to cryptocurrency markets. We demonstrate in-sample causality across daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. Furthermore, we show that incorporating stablecoin factors significantly reduces Mean Squared Error in cryptocurrency forecasting. Specifically, we link stablecoin volume and upside volatility to broader market volatility, indicating its role as dry powder. Finally, we establish economic value by demonstrating reduced risk in a cryptocurrency volatility targeting model when stablecoin factors are employed.
Ethereum Inscriptions (Ethscriptions) repurpose Ethereum calldata into a persistent inscription channel by embedding \texttt{data:}~URI payloads. These transactions typically target externally owned accounts, allowing the payload to bypass EVM execution while remaining permanently replicated across full nodes. Although calldata was originally designed for compact smart-contract parameters, this repurposing enables structured data embedding with long-term storage consequences. We present the first large-scale empirical study of Ethscriptions, treating them as a distinct \emph{calldata-resident workload} rather than merely a subset of general calldata usage. Our analysis focuses on the \textit{Ethscription} operational subset, which consists of payloads that decode to JSON and conform to a token-operation grammar (e.g., \texttt{p}, \texttt{op}, \texttt{tick}, \texttt{amt}). From $6.27$ million Ethscription candidates (\Uone), we extract $4.75$ million Ethscription operations (\Utwo, $75.8\%$ of \Uone). This result shows that structured token-like activity dominates the ecosystem. Our measurements further reveal (i) a complete workload lifecycle compressed into nine months (bootstrap, expansion, saturation), (ii) proliferation of $30$+ competing protocols without convergence toward a dominant standard, (iii) a lifecycle funnel exhibiting $201\times$ deploy-to-mint amplification and a $57.6{:}1$ mint-to-transfer collapse indicative of speculative minting, (iv) extreme participation inequality (Gini~$0.86$), and (v) a measurable permanent data footprint imposed on the Ethereum network.
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) are becoming a new digital financial tool aimed at financial inclusion, increased monetary stability, and improved efficiency of payment systems, as they are issued by central banks. One of the most important aspects is that the CBDC must offer secure offline payment methods to users, allowing them to retain cash-like access without violating Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-terrorism Financing (AML/CFT) rules. The offline CBDC ecosystems will provide financial inclusion, empower underserved communities, and ensure equitable access to digital payments, even in connectivity-poor remote locations. With the rapid growth of Internet of Things (IoT) devices in our everyday lives, they are capable of performing secure digital transactions. Integrating offline CBDC payment with IoT devices enables seamless, automated payment without internet connectivity. However, IoT devices face special challenges due to their resource-constrained nature. This makes it difficult to include features such as double-spending prevention, privacy preservation, low-computation operation, and digital identity management. The work proposes a privacy-preserving offline CBDC model with integrated secure elements (SEs), zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs), and intermittent synchronisation to conduct offline payments on IoT hardware. The proposed model is based on recent improvements in offline CBDC prototypes, regulations and cryptographic design choices such as hybrid architecture that involves using combination of online and offline payment in IoT devices using secure hardware with lightweight zero-knowledge proof cryptographic algorithm.
Agentic systems increasingly rely on reusable procedural capabilities, \textit{a.k.a., agentic skills}, to execute long-horizon workflows reliably. These capabilities are callable modules that package procedural knowledge with explicit applicability conditions, execution policies, termination criteria, and reusable interfaces. Unlike one-off plans or atomic tool calls, skills operate (and often do well) across tasks. This paper maps the skill layer across the full lifecycle (discovery, practice, distillation, storage, composition, evaluation, and update) and introduces two complementary taxonomies. The first is a system-level set of \textbf{seven design patterns} capturing how skills are packaged and executed in practice, from metadata-driven progressive disclosure and executable code skills to self-evolving libraries and marketplace distribution. The second is an orthogonal \textbf{representation $\times$ scope} taxonomy describing what skills \emph{are} (natural language, code, policy, hybrid) and what environments they operate over (web, OS, software engineering, robotics). We analyze the security and governance implications of skill-based agents, covering supply-chain risks, prompt injection via skill payloads, and trust-tiered execution, grounded by a case study of the ClawHavoc campaign in which nearly 1{,}200 malicious skills infiltrated a major agent marketplace, exfiltrating API keys, cryptocurrency wallets, and browser credentials at scale. We further survey deterministic evaluation approaches, anchored by recent benchmark evidence that curated skills can substantially improve agent success rates while self-generated skills may degrade them. We conclude with open challenges toward robust, verifiable, and certifiable skills for real-world autonomous agents.
In this paper, we analyse the impacts of exogenous and endogenous factors on wealth distribution in the Bitcoin token economy, where wealth distribution refers to the distribution of BTC between economic participants or groups of economic participants. The objective of the paper is to analyse the impact of economic policies on wealth distribution in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Different macroeconomic and microeconomic time series are used to eliminate noise in the wealth distribution time series, and the causality analysis is performed between Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (i.e., BIPs) and the cleaned wealth distribution data to reveal possible patterns in the impacts that the endogenous policies have on wealth distribution in token economies. Lastly, a structure for economic policy taxonomy in token economies is proposed where different the policy implementations are illustrated by existing BIPs. This approach highlights the actions available to the policy makers, as well as providing a technique for analysis of policy impacts in token economies and their categorization.
Global illicit fund flows exceed an estimated $3.1 trillion annually, with stablecoins emerging as a preferred laundering medium due to their liquidity. While decentralized protocols increasingly adopt zero-knowledge proofs to obfuscate transaction graphs, centralized stablecoins remain critical transparent choke points for compliance. Leveraging this persistent visibility, this study analyzes an Ethereum dataset to establish an empirical baseline for behavioral AML detection. Our findings demonstrate that domain-informed tree ensemble models achieve higher Macro-F1 score, significantly outperforming graph neural networks, which struggle with the increasing fragmentation of transaction networks. The model's interpretability goes beyond binary detection, successfully dissecting distinct typologies: it differentiates the complex, high-velocity dispersion of cybercrime syndicates from the constrained, static footprints left by sanctioned entities. This methodological approach provides actionable insights that align with industry shifts toward deterministic verification, informing the auditability and compliance requirements under regulations such as the EU's MiCA and the U.S. GENIUS Act while minimizing unjustified asset freezes. By providing a high-precision behavioral classification of suspicious wallets, this approach contributes to raising the economic cost of financial misconduct while informing compliance practice under emerging stablecoin regulations.
The past decade has witnessed the burgeoning and continuous development of blockchain and its applications. Besides various cryptocurrencies, an industry that has quickly embraced this trend is gaming. Thanks to the support of blockchain, games have started to incorporate non-fungible tokens (NFTs) that can enable a new gaming model, play-to-earn (P2E), which incentivizes users to participate and play. While recent studies looked at several NFT games qualitatively and individually, an in-depth understanding is still missing, particularly on how the P2E model has transformed traditional games. In this work, we set to conduct a measurement study of NFT games, aiming to gain a comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of P2E in practice. For this purpose, we collect and analyze relevant NFT transaction data from the underlying blockchain (e.g., Ethereum) of 12 games, supplemented with various data scraped from their websites. Our study shows that (1) a few top wallets control unproportionally high percentage of NFTs, and the majority of wallets own only one or two NFTs and do not actively trade; (2) promotion events do boost the trade amount and the NFT price for some games, but their effect does not sustain; and (3) few players actually earned a profit, and players in 9 out of 12 games who traded NFTs have a negative profit on average. Motivated by these findings, we further investigate effective incentive mechanisms based on game theory to improve the trading profits that players can earn from these NFT games. Both modeling and simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed incentive mechanism.
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit pronounced momentum effects and regime-dependent volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for systematic trading strategies. We propose AdaptiveTrend, a multi-component algorithmic trading framework that integrates high-frequency trend-following on 6-hour intervals with monthly adaptive portfolio construction and asymmetric long-short capital allocation. Our framework introduces three key innovations: (1) a dynamic trailing stop mechanism calibrated to intra-day volatility regimes, (2) a rolling Sharpe-ratio-based asset selection procedure with market-capitalization-aware filtering, and (3) a theoretically motivated asymmetric 70/30 long-short allocation scheme grounded in the empirical positive drift of crypto markets. Through extensive out-of-sample backtesting across 150+ cryptocurrency pairs over a 36-month evaluation window (2022-2024), AdaptiveTrend achieves an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.41, a maximum drawdown of -12.7%, and a Calmar ratio of 3.18, significantly outperforming benchmark trend-following strategies (TSMOM, time-series momentum) and equal-weighted buy-and-hold portfolios. We further conduct rigorous robustness analyses including parameter sensitivity, transaction cost modeling, and regime-conditional performance decomposition, demonstrating the strategy's resilience across bull, bear, and sideways market conditions.
Samela Kivilo, Alex Norta, Marie Hattingh, Sowelu Avanzo · 5 authors
In recent years, tokenomic systems, decentralized systems that use cryptographic tokens to represent value and rights, have evolved considerably. Growing complexity in incentive structures has expanded the applicability of blockchain beyond purely transactional use. Existing research predominantly examines token economies within specific use cases, proposes conceptual frameworks, or studies isolated aspects such as governance, incentive design, and tokenomics. However, the literature offers limited empirically grounded, end-to-end guidance that integrates these dimensions into a coherent, step-by-step design approach informed by concrete token-economy development efforts. To address this gap, this paper presents the Token Economy Design Method (TEDM), a design-science artifact that synthesizes stepwise design propositions for token-economy design across incentives, governance, and tokenomics. TEDM is derived through an iterative qualitative synthesis of prior contributions and refined through a co-designed case. The artifact is formatively evaluated via the Currynomics case study and additional expert interviews. Currynomics is an ecosystem that maintains the Redcurry stablecoin, using real estate as the underlying asset. TEDM is positioned as reusable design guidance that facilitates the analysis of foundational requirements of tokenized ecosystems. The specificity of the proposed approach lies in the focus on the socio-technical context of the system and early stages of its design.
Financial Generative Pre-trained Transformers (FinGPT) with multimodal capabilities are now being increasingly adopted in various financial applications. However, due to the intellectual property of model weights and the copyright of training corpus and benchmarking questions, verifying the legitimacy of GPT's model weights and the credibility of model outputs is a pressing challenge. In this paper, we introduce a novel zkFinGPT scheme that applies zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) to high-value financial use cases, enabling verification while protecting data privacy. We describe how zkFinGPT will be applied to three financial use cases. Our experiments on two existing packages reveal that zkFinGPT introduces substantial computational overhead that hinders its real-world adoption. E.g., for LLama3-8B model, it generates a commitment file of $7.97$MB using $531$ seconds, and takes $620$ seconds to prove and $2.36$ seconds to verify.
The application of the standard static Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model for cryptocurrency risk management resulted in a systemic failure, evidenced by a 80.67% chance of loss in the 5% value-at-risk benchmark. This study addresses a critical literature gap by comparatively testing three conditional volatility models the EWMA/IGARCH baseline, an IGARCH model augmented with explicit mean reversion (IGARCH + MR), and a modified EGARCH-style asymmetric shock model within a correlated Monte Carlo VaR framework. Crucially, the analysis is applied specifically to high-beta altcoins (XRP, SOL, ADA), an asset class largely neglected by mainstream GARCH literature. Our results demonstrate that imposing stationarity (IGARCH + MR) drastically underestimates downside risk (5 percent value-at-risk reduced by 50%), while the asymmetric model (Model 3) leads to severe over-penalization. The EWMA/IGARCH baseline, characterized by infinite volatility persistence (alpha + beta = 1), provided the only robust conditional volatility estimate. This finding constitutes a formal rejection of the conventional financial hypotheses of volatility mean reversion and the asymmetric leverage effect in the altcoin asset class, establishing that non-stationary frameworks are a prerequisite for regulatory-grade risk modeling in this domain.
The integration of cryptocurrencies into institutional portfolios necessitates the adoption of robust risk modeling frameworks. This study is a part of a series of subsequent works to fine-tune model risk analysis for cryptocurrencies. Through this first research work, we establish a foundational benchmark by applying the traditional industry-standard Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. Popularly used for non-crypto financial assets, GBM assumes Lognormal return distributions for a multi-asset cryptocurrency portfolio (XRP, SOL, ADA). This work utilizes Maximum Likelihood Estimation and a correlated Monte Carlo Simulation incorporating the Cholesky decomposition of historical covariance. We present our stock portfolio model as a Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP). We observe the model's structural shift within the heavy-tailed, non-Gaussian cryptocurrency environment. The results reveal limitations of the Lognormal assumption: the calculated Value-at-Risk at the 5% confidence level over the one-year horizon. For baselining our results, we also present a holistic comparative analysis with an equity portfolio (AAPL, TSLA, NVDA), demonstrating a significantly lower failure rate. This performance provides conclusive evidence that the GBM model is fundamentally the perfect benchmark for our subsequent works. Results from this novel work will be an indicator for the success criteria in our future model for crypto risk management, rigorously motivating the development and application of advanced models.
Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.