Hongzhou Chen, Xiaolin Duan, Abdulmotaleb El Saddik, Wei Cai
Harnessing the transparent blockchain user behavior data, we construct the Political Betting Leaning Score (PBLS) to measure political leanings based on betting within Web3 prediction markets. Focusing on Polymarket and starting from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, we synthesize behaviors over 15,000 addresses across 4,500 events and 8,500 markets, capturing the intensity and direction of their political leanings by the PBLS. We validate the PBLS through internal consistency checks and external comparisons. We uncover relationships between our PBLS and betting behaviors through over 800 features capturing various behavioral aspects. A case study of the 2022 U.S. Senate election further demonstrates the ability of our measurement while decoding the dynamic interaction between political and profitable motives. Our findings contribute to understanding decision-making in decentralized markets, enhancing the analysis of behaviors within Web3 prediction environments. The insights of this study reveal the potential of blockchain in enabling innovative, multidisciplinary studies and could inform the development of more effective online prediction markets, improve the accuracy of forecast, and help the design and optimization of platform mechanisms. The data and code for the paper are accessible at the following link: https://github.com/anonymous.
This study observes through qualitative textual analysis the Discord community of Virtually Human Studioâs play-to-earn (P2E), blockchain-based videogame âZED Runâ to better understand the nature of non-fungible token (NFT) applications and their users. This study emphasizes gaming and gambling opportunities related to NFTs and blockchain technology which suggest shifts towards increased risk-taking and a blurring of financial and entertainment contexts. In ZED Run, usersâ interactions with designed systems, as well as interest in improving oneâs understanding of the application and its associated marketplace, is motivated by interest in financial reward. This work argues this close relationship of financial interests to gaming and gambling environments risks fostering an increasingly gamified approach to financial life. Ultimately, ZED Run represents the application of media affordances to an acceleration of risk-taking and an adoption of alternative financial assets that challenge governmental authority while placing users at greater personal and financial risk.
Hilda Hadan, Leah Zhang-Kennedy, Lennart E. Nacke, Ville MÀkelÀ
Introduction In recent years, cryptocurrency has increasingly sparked interest among investors. Many people have invested in this field without adequate knowledge. Existing research has shown that using game design elements can be an effective method of education. Such learning interventions can potentially be a good match for educating market investors, as they provide risk-free simulations for novice investors to gain practical experience without having to be concerned about real financial losses. However, it is unclear how market investors perceive gamified and game-based learning interventions and whether they would adopt them for cryptocurrency education. Research Objectives Our study investigated market investorsâ perceptions, needs and expectations regarding the integration of gamification and game-based learning interventions in cryptocurrency education. Methodology We conducted an online survey with n=413 participants, including experienced market investors and people who are interested in cryptocurrency. Within the survey, we presented the mock-ups of two cryptocurrency learning interventions: a gamified cryptocurrency learning application, and a cryptocurrency learning video game. Results From market investorsâ perspectives, our study revealed the benefits and drawbacks of incorporating gamification and game design principles to facilitate learning cryptocurrency. We identified the need to develop dynamic, accessible, reliable, and community-building gamified and game-based cryptocurrency learning interventions. Conclusion From our findings, we propose guidance for the integration of gamification and games in cryptocurrency education, and we provide design recommendations for investor-specific cryptocurrency learning interventions.
In this paper, we conduct a portfolio analysis based on the lottery-like characteristics of cryptocurrencies to examine return predictability. Our results show that cryptocurrencies with higher lottery-like characteristics exhibit lower one-month ahead returns. This phenomenon, known as the lottery-like effect, suggests that investors overvalue cryptocurrencies with stronger lottery-like traits, leading to lower future returns. Moreover, the effect persists over longer horizons, and the results remain robust after controlling for other crypto-asset characteristics.
We examine the impact of a stockâs lottery-likeness on its return comovement with Bitcoin. We find that Bitcoin returns exhibit significantly stronger comovement with lottery-like stocks (LLS). Using firmsâ retail ownership and Robinhood user details to proxy for retail trading, we identify that retail investorsâ preference for speculative, high-risk, and high-reward investments, known as their gambling propensity, is the underlying channel driving the Bitcoin-LLS comovement. Our results are robust across various estimation methods, alternative measures of stock lottery-likeness, and multiple proxies for gambling sentiment including Google search volume, Baker-Wurgler sentiment index, the month of January, and the period around the Chinese Lunar New Year. These findings hold at both daily and monthly intervals and are not confounded by firms in the high-tech industry. Further analysis using Robinhood and Bitcoin usersâ net trading positions yields consistent evidence. Employing a vector autoregressive approach and an exogenous shock to Bitcoin demand, we demonstrate a spillover effect from Bitcoin to LLS. Finally, we demonstrate that Bitcoin provides more effective hedge for LLS than non-LLS.
Ahmethan Turan, Mehmet ya, Ertan lmaz, M. Munir Syam AR
Objective: Cryptocurrency trading has become widespread in recent years with developing technology and ease of use. As this is similar to gambling and pathological trading, this can produce an addiction. In this study, we aimed to examine the relationship between use of cryptocurrencies and ADHD symptoms, quality of life and sleep quality among university students. Methods: In total 921 university students were included in this study. All participants answered the sociodemographic data form, Adult Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Self-Report Scale (ASRS), 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36) and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) using the online questionnaire method. Cryptocurrency users additionally responded to Problematic Cryptocurrency Trading Scale (PCTS). Results: In the cryptocurrency usersâ ASRS scores were significantly higher (p<0.001), all SF-36 scores were significantly lower (for mental health subscale p=0.034, for other subscales p<0.001) in except SF-36 bodily pain scores, PSQI global scores (p<0.001) and subscales scores were found to be significantly higher (for sleep latency subscale p=0.013, for sleep disturbances subscale p=0.041, for other subscales p<0.001). Among those who cryptocurrency user, positive significant relationship was found between male gender, gambling, smoking and psychiatric history and PCTS scores (p=0.017, p=0.002, p=0.029, p=0.011 respectively). Conclusion: Cryptocurrency users have shown more ADHD symptoms, lower sleep quality and lower quality of life than non-users. Cryptocurrency use is common among university students and it should not be overlooked that it can evolve into behavioral addiction.
Decentralized exchanges are becoming a competitive necessity for Web3 users. However, they cannot beat centralized exchanges in terms of user experience. Due to expensive gas fees, the blockchain cannot implement the classic order book model which is the pillar for traditional finance exchanges. Instead, most decentralized exchanges operate on the Automated Market Maker (AMM) model using a pre-defined mathematical pricing rule. AMM is more efficient to run on the blockchain but the biggest tradeoff is impermanent loss for liquidity providers and price slippage for traders. This remains the most noticeable drawback of todayâs AMM. In this paper, we make the following contributions. First, we observe that if AMM is virtualized as an order book, its âorder-book" shape is awkwardly different from that of a real-world order book. We argue that this is conceptually connected to the above weakness. We are thus motivated to design an AMM, the first of its kind, that mimics the price impact behaviors of real-world order books. Second, the proposed AMM, thanks to this property, significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art AMM in impermanent loss. Interestingly, our AMM can even result in impermanent gain. We are also better for large orders where price slippage is a concern. Third, another feature is that, while todayâs AMM typically requires a fixed inventory ratio for the liquidity pool, the new AMM allows this ratio to vary, giving liquidity providers flexible options for joining or exiting the pool. All these advantages are offered without losing desirable properties of an AMM regarding split-order exploitation, arbitrage risks, and liquidity continuity. Our findings are validated by theoretical analysis with mathematical proofs and, also, experimental evaluation which was comprehensively conducted using two real-world datasets and a synthetic dataset representing different market scenarios. Our research is the first in the literature on AMM design that factors in statistical properties from the order book model.
Purpose The purpose of the research paper is to investigate the relationship between personality traits and investment decisions in the crypto market, including cryptocurrencies and NFTs. The study aims to explore the effect of dark personalities and the big five personalities on investment decisions in the crypto market. Design/methodology/approach The research was conducted through two online questionnaire studies. In Study 1, data were collected from the general public, while in Study 2, data were collected from crypto investors. The researchers analyzed the effect of dark personalities and the big five personalities on investment decisions in the crypto market. Findings The present research found that Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopath, sadism and extraversion have positive effects on having crypto investments. In addition, focusing on actual crypto investors, the present paper showed that personalities including Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopath, consciousness and extraversion have statistically significant effect on investment decisions such as making investments in Bitcoin. Originality/value The study is original in exploring the relationship between personality traits and investment decisions in the newly emerging crypto market, including cryptocurrencies and NFTs. The research provides insights into how different personality traits affect investment decisions in the crypto market, which can be valuable for investors in making informed decisions.
Cryptocurrency trading continues to increase in popularity as a broad financial activity in the American populace and across the globe. Despite well-documented risks associated with the behavior and parallels between cryptocurrency trading and gambling, the mental health implications and associations of this behavior are only beginning to be understood. The objective of the current work was to provide preliminary data, using a census-matched, weighted, U.S. sample, of the sociodemographic predictors of cryptocurrency trading and the broad cluster of addictive behaviors that are associated with such behavior. Participants were recruited by YouGov Opinion polling and taken from two samples: a weighted, census-matched sample adults in the United States (N = 2,806) and an oversample of sports-wagering individuals in the United States (N = 1,557). Cryptocurrency trading habits were measured via self-report questions, as were gambling problems, and substance use and dependence. Younger, more educated, higher-income men were more likely to regularly trade cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency trading was associated with greater frequency of addictive behaviors and greater self-reported feelings of addiction. Collectively, these results suggest that cryptocurrency is often linked a wide variety of impulsive or at-risk behaviors and may be seen as an indicator of more broad concerns with risky behaviors.
This paper explores the relationship with gambling severity of a relatively new set of speculative digital products, namely cryptocurrency trading, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and fan tokens. These products have gained notoriety in sports marketing strategies (among other realms) and are considered to be potentially problematic because, disguised as non-gambling products, they include gambling-like design features that might make sports fans more vulnerable when consuming them. A sample of regular sports bettors (N = 525) based in the U.S. was recruited in 2023 via an online panel to understand the association between these types of consumptions. The findings revealed a significant overlap between experiencing gambling problems and consuming cryptocurrency trading products, NFTs, and fan tokens. The results indicate a modest relationship between the severity of gambling and the likelihood of owning the studied digital assets, of holding positive attitudes toward them, and of being more frequently exposed to their advertising and marketing promotions. The relevancy of these findings resides in the fact that sports bettors might be perceiving and treating gambling and gambling-like assets as part of the same product category, when in reality the latter are legally required to comply with fewer consumer protection measures than gambling products.
Gambling sponsorships are common in international soccer due to the substantial funds they provide to clubs. For example, in the 2022/23 English Premier League season, eight clubs collectively received an estimated ÂŁ60 million from gambling shirt-front sponsorships.While the Premier League plans to ban gambling shirt-front sponsorships by 2026, this will not include shirt sleeves or pitch-side hoardings, which are the most frequently seen forms of in-game marketing. In contrast, Italy and Spain have fully banned gambling sponsorships and in-game marketing due to public health concerns. Relatedly, much less attention has been paid to the emergence of sponsorships associated with cryptocurrency or financial trading. These are both gambling-like products, which are engaged in disproportionately by those experiencing gambling-related harm, and which also use soccer to market themselves. Researchers have suggested that these products might look to fill the gap in high- level sports left by gambling sponsorship bans, and so have highlighted the need to monitor their use of sponsorship agreements with high-level soccer teams. We therefore provide an overview of gambling and gambling-like sponsorship of soccer teams within high-level leagues across England, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Argentina. Overall, our findings indicate that gambling sponsorship remains prominent, but has reduced in comparison to previous seasons across most countries. However, we have observed betting âpartnershipsâ which circumvent gambling sponsorship prohibitions in Italy. In relation to cryptocurrency and financial trading companies, there are limited numbers of active sponsorships outside of the UK, but âpartnershipsâ between teams and these companies have become prevalent.
BACKGROUND: Cryptocurrencies are a popular investment tool today. However, some studies highlight the investing behavior of cryptocurrencies similar to pathological gambling. Investing behavior becomes risky when it is not based on proper and adequate analysis and carries the possibility of big losses as well as big gains. For this reason, we aimed to determine the potential risky investor profile by age, gender, personality traits and impulsivity levels. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Six hundred and fifty-four cryptocurrencies investors (529 was male, 125 was female, their mean age was 35.6 ± 9.0) participated in this study between June 2022 - August 2022. Participants were administered the Sociodemographic Data Form, the South OAKS Gambling Screen Test - revised (SOGS-r), the Big Five Inventory (BFI-10), and Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11 (BIS-11). RESULTS: We found higher neuroticism and impulsivity in possible problematic crypto investors. In addition, extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness scores were lower. Additionally, in our regression analyzes we found that younger age and male gender predicted SOGS-r scores. After controlling for age and gender, extraversion negatively and motor impulsivity positively predicted SOGS-r scores. DISCUSSION: Investing in cryptocurrencies can become a behavioral addiction, similar to pathological gambling. It is important to identify profiles in which investment behavior is risky. CONCLUSION: Personality traits and impulsivity may have a significant impact on identifying risky crypto investors and in the treatment process.
Jamie Torrance, Conor Heath, Maira Andrade, Philip Newall
Background & aims: The gamblification of UK football has resulted in a proliferation of in-game marketing associated with gambling and gambling-like products such as cryptocurrencies and financial trading apps. The English Premier League (EPL) has in response banned gambling logos on shirt-fronts from 2026 onward. This ban does not affect other types of marketing for gambling (e.g., sleeves and pitch-side hoardings), nor gambling-like products. This study therefore aimed to assess the ban's implied overall reduction of different types of marketing exposure. Methods: We performed a frequency analysis of logos associated with gambling, cryptocurrency, and financial trading across 10 broadcasts from the 2022/23 EPL season. For each relevant logo, we coded: the marketed product, associated brand, number of individual logos, logo location, logo duration, and whether harm-reduction content was present. Results: There were 20,941 relevant logos across the 10 broadcasts, of which 13,427 (64.1%) were for gambling only, 2,236 (10.7%) were for both gambling and cryptocurrency, 2,014 (9.6%) were for cryptocurrency only, 2,068 (9.9%) were for both cryptocurrency and financial trading, and 1,196 (5.7%) were for financial trading only. There were 1,075 shirt-front gambling-associated logos, representing 6.9% of all gambling-associated logos, and 5.1% of all logos combined. Pitch-side hoardings were the most frequent marketing location (52.3%), and 3.4% of logos contained harm-reduction content. Discussion & Conclusions: Brand logos associated with gambling, cryptocurrency, and financial trading are common within EPL broadcasts. Approximately 1 in 20 gambling and gambling-like logos are subject to the EPL's voluntary ban on shirt-front gambling sponsorship.
Abstract Play-to-earn (P2E) is a new form of monetised gaming based on blockchain and crypto-currency technology. Such games offer opportunities to combine gaming with speculative investment through the purchase of tradable in-game currencies and assets (non-fungible tokens). In this paper, we investigate the profile of people most likely to be attracted to this emerging form of gaming. A sample of 560 participants aged between 18-65 ( M = 28.3, SD = 8.3) were recruited via Prolific to complete an online survey that included measures of gaming ( Petryâs Internet Gaming Disorder Scale ) and gaming risk ( Problem Gambling Severity Index ), measures of gaming motivation and impulsivity. Other existing engagement in gaming monetization as well as digital asset ownership was also assessed. P2E interest was associated with higher gambling risk scores, but not with internet gaming disorder. P2E gamers also scored higher on extrinsic motivation and monetised gaming was generally associated with higher impulsivity. The results suggest that P2E may be attractive to those with a pre-existing interest in financially risky activities. Policy implications include the increasing need to monitor the growth of digital asset technology and the increasing convergence of gambling, financial speculation and gaming and the potential for increasing financial harm in gaming populations.
A decentralized lottery system using blockchain technology can offer a transparent and secure way to conduct lotteries without the need for a central authority. The system is built on a smart contract that defines the rules of the lottery, participants can purchase lottery tickets by sending cryptocurrency to the smart contract, and the winning ticket(s) are selected using a provably fair algorithm. The prize money is distributed automatically to the winners' cryptocurrency addresses using the smart contract, and all transactions and lottery results are recorded on the blockchain for transparency and immutability. While the system offers benefits such as trust, transparency, security, and accessibility, there are also potential challenges and considerations to keep in mind such as regulatory compliance, adoption, scalability, and user experience.
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Gambling Behavior and Treatments
Advanced Steganography and Watermarking Techniques
Benjamin Johnson, Tianze Sun, Daniel StjepanoviÄ, Giang Thu Vu · 5 authors
The constant, substantial price fluctuations of cryptocurrency allow traders to engage in highly speculative trading that closely resembles gambling. With significant financial loss associated with adverse mental health outcomes, it is important to investigate the impact that market participation has on mental health. Therefore, we conducted interviews with 17 participants who self-reported problems due to trading. Thematic analysis was conducted revealing themes: (1) factors in engagement, (2) impacts of trading and (3) harm reduction. Factors in engagement captured factors that motivated and sustained cryptocurrency trading. Impacts of trading outlined how cryptocurrency trading positively and negatively impacted participants. Harm reduction described methods participants employed to reduce mental distress from trading. Our study provides novel insights into the adverse impacts of cryptocurrency trading across multiple domains, especially mental health, relationships and finances. They also indicate the importance of further research on effective coping strategies for distress caused by financial loss from trading. Additionally, our study reveals the significant role social environments play on participants' expectations and intentions regarding cryptocurrency trading. These social networks extend beyond real-life relationship to include celebrity and influencer endorsement. This encourages investigation into the content of cryptocurrency promotions and the influence they have on individuals' decision to trade.
Cryptocurrencies has been considered as both an investment tool and a great invention that will replace money and change the world order. Although crypto currency trading has been investigated in many aspects, the psychological dimension that directly affects investors has often been ignored. Control of cryptocurrency trading is in the hands of investors rather than a central authority or institution. Thus, the value of cryptocurrencies changes with the reactions of investors. This situation suggests that psychological factors may be more prominent in cryptocurrency trading. Cryptocurrency trading has many similarities with gambling and betting, such as risk taking, getting quick returns, extreme gains or losses. Some significant components of behavioral addiction are also seen in individuals who spend so much time with cryptocurrency trading. The purpose of this article is to provide a better understanding of the psychological effects of cryptocurrency trading, which has entered our lives over a relatively brief period of time and reached millions of investors.
Policymakersâ attempts to prevent gambling-related harm are affected by the âgamblificationâ of, for example, video games and investing. This review highlights related issues posed by cryptocurrencies, which are decentralised and volatile digital assets, and which underlie âcryptocasinosââa new generation of online gambling operators. Cryptocurrencies can be traded around the clock and provide the allure of big potential lottery-like wins. Frequent cryptocurrency traders often suffer from gambling-related harm, which suggests that many users are taking on substantial risks. Further, the lack of regulation around cryptocurrencies and social media echo chambers increases usersâ risk of being scammed. In comparison to the conventional regulated online gambling sector, cryptocasinos pose novel risks for existing online gamblers, and can also make online gambling accessible to the underage, the self-excluded, and those living in jurisdictions where online gambling is illegal. Researchers and policymakers should continue to monitor developments in this fast-moving space.