Lottery-like effect and cryptocurrency

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct a portfolio analysis based on the lottery-like characteristics of cryptocurrencies to examine return predictability. Our results show that cryptocurrencies with higher lottery-like characteristics exhibit lower one-month ahead returns. This phenomenon, known as the lottery-like effect, suggests that investors overvalue cryptocurrencies with stronger lottery-like traits, leading to lower future returns. Moreover, the effect persists over longer horizons, and the results remain robust after controlling for other crypto-asset characteristics.