Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are an integral component of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, as they allow users to exchange crypto-assets without the need for trusted authorities or external price oracles. Although these protocols are based on relatively simple mechanisms, e.g., to algorithmically determine the exchange rate between crypto-assets, they give rise to complex economic behaviours. This complexity is witnessed by the proliferation of models that study their structural and economic properties. Currently, most of theoretical results obtained on these models are supported by pen-and-paper proofs. This work proposes a formalization of constant-product AMMs in the Lean 4 Theorem Prover. To demonstrate the utility of our model, we provide mechanized proofs of key economic properties like arbitrage, that at the best of our knowledge have only been proved by pen-and-paper before.
Xiongfei Zhao, Gerui Zhang, Hou-Wan Long, Yain-Whar Si
Transaction fees are a crucial revenue source for miners in public and consortium blockchains. However, while public blockchains have additional revenue streams, transaction fees serve as the primary income for miners in consortium blockchains formed by various financial institutions. These miners allocate different levels of computing resources to process transactions and earn corresponding fees. Nonetheless, relying solely on transaction fees can lead to significant volatility and encourage non-standard mining behaviors, thereby posing threats to the blockchain's security and integrity. Despite previous attempts to mitigate the impact of transaction fees on illicit mining behaviors, a comprehensive solution to this vulnerability is yet to be established. To address this gap, we introduce a novel approach that leverages Dynamic Transaction Storage (DTS) strategies to effectively minimize block incentive volatility. Our solution implements a Verkle tree-based storage mechanism to reduce bandwidth consumption. Moreover, to configure the DTS strategies, we evaluate several optimization algorithms and formulate the challenge as a Vehicle Routing Problem. Our experiments conducted using historical transactions from Bitcoin and remittance data from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reveal that the strategy focusing on time-based transaction incorporation priority, while excluding a designated space for small-fee transactions, as discovered by the gradient-based optimizer algorithm, proves most effective in reducing volatility. Hence, the DTS strategy can sustain stable block incentives irrespective of transaction types or user bidding behavior. Furthermore, the inclusion of higher-fee transactions, often smaller in size, can alleviate propagation delays and the occurrence of forks.
In recent years, the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) market has witnessed numerous attacks on the price oracle, leading to substantial economic losses. Despite the advent of truth discovery methods opening up new avenues for oracle development, it falls short in addressing high-value attacks on price oracle tasks. Consequently, this paper introduces a dynamically adjusted truth discovery method safeguarding the truth of high-value price oracle tasks. In the truth aggregation stage, we enhance future considerations to improve the precision of aggregated truth. During the credibility update phase, credibility is dynamically assessed based on the task's value and the Cumulative Potential Economic Contribution (CPEC) of information sources. Experimental results demonstrate a significant reduction in data deviation by 65.8\% and potential economic loss by 66.5\%, compared to the baseline scheme, in the presence of high-value attacks.
The evolving landscape of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has raised critical security concerns, especially pertaining to Protocols for Loanable Funds (PLFs) and their dependency on price oracles, which are susceptible to manipulation. The emergence of flash loans has further amplified these risks, enabling increasingly complex oracle manipulation attacks that can lead to significant financial losses. Responding to this threat, we first dissect the attack mechanism by formalizing the standard operational and adversary models for PLFs. Based on our analysis, we propose SecPLF, a robust and practical solution designed to counteract oracle manipulation attacks efficiently. SecPLF operates by tracking a price state for each crypto-asset, including the recent price and the timestamp of its last update. By imposing price constraints on the price oracle usage, SecPLF ensures a PLF only engages a price oracle if the last recorded price falls within a defined threshold, thereby negating the profitability of potential attacks. Our evaluation based on historical market data confirms SecPLF's efficacy in providing high-confidence prevention against arbitrage attacks that arise due to minor price differences. SecPLF delivers proactive protection against oracle manipulation attacks, offering ease of implementation, oracle-agnostic property, and resource and cost efficiency.
Forecasting speculative stock prices is essential for effective investment risk management that drives the need for the development of innovative algorithms. However, the speculative nature, volatility, and complex sequential dependencies within financial markets present inherent challenges which necessitate advanced techniques. This paper proposes a novel framework, CAB-XDE (customized attention BiLSTM-XGB decision ensemble), for predicting the daily closing price of speculative stock Bitcoin-USD (BTC-USD). CAB-XDE framework integrates a customized bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with the attention mechanism and the XGBoost algorithm. The customized BiLSTM leverages its learning capabilities to capture the complex sequential dependencies and speculative market trends. Additionally, the new attention mechanism dynamically assigns weights to influential features, thereby enhancing interpretability, and optimizing effective cost measures and volatility forecasting. Moreover, XGBoost handles nonlinear relationships and contributes to the proposed CAB-XDE framework robustness. Additionally, the weight determination theory-error reciprocal method further refines predictions. This refinement is achieved by iteratively adjusting model weights. It is based on discrepancies between theoretical expectations and actual errors in individual customized attention BiLSTM and XGBoost models to enhance performance. Finally, the predictions from both XGBoost and customized attention BiLSTM models are concatenated to achieve diverse prediction space and are provided to the ensemble classifier to enhance the generalization capabilities of CAB-XDE. The proposed CAB-XDE framework is empirically validated on volatile Bitcoin market, sourced from Yahoo Finance and outperforms state-of-the-art models with a MAPE of 0.0037, MAE of 84.40, and RMSE of 106.14.
The prevalence of maximal extractable value (MEV) in the Ethereum ecosystem has led to a characterization of the latter as a dark forest. Studies of MEV have thus far largely been restricted to purely on-chain MEV, i.e., sandwich attacks, cyclic arbitrage, and liquidations. In this work, we shed light on the prevalence of non-atomic arbitrage on decentralized exchanges (DEXes) on the Ethereum blockchain. Importantly, non-atomic arbitrage exploits price differences between DEXes on the Ethereum blockchain as well as exchanges outside the Ethereum blockchain (i.e., centralized exchanges or DEXes on other blockchains). Thus, non-atomic arbitrage is a type of MEV that involves actions on and off the Ethereum blockchain. In our study of non-atomic arbitrage, we uncover that more than a fourth of the volume on Ethereum's biggest five DEXes from the merge until 31 October 2023 can likely be attributed to this type of MEV. We further highlight that only eleven searchers are responsible for more than 80% of the identified non-atomic arbitrage volume sitting at a staggering $132 billion and draw a connection between the centralization of the block construction market and non-atomic arbitrage. Finally, we discuss the security implications of these high-value transactions that account for more than 10% of Ethereum's total block value and outline possible mitigations.
Continuous innovations profoundly impact the financial and commercial domains, reshaping conventional business practices. Among the disruptive forces, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and blockchain technology stand out prominently. This study aims to evaluate the integration of blockchain, AI, and ML within financial accounting practices. It suggests a potential revolutionary impact on financial accounting through the adoption of blockchain technology and ML, promising reduced accounting expenses, heightened precision, real-time financial reporting capabilities, and expeditious auditing processes. AI's role in automating repetitive financial accounting tasks assists organizations in circumventing the need for additional staff, thereby minimizing associated costs. Consequently, to bolster efficiency, businesses are increasingly embracing blockchain technology and AI applications in their financial accounting operations.
Mahsa Bastankhah, Viraj Nadkarni, Xuechao Wang, Chi Jin · 6 authors
Decentralized finance (DeFi) borrowing and lending platforms are crucial to the decentralized economy, involving two main participants: lenders who provide assets for interest and borrowers who offer collateral exceeding their debt and pay interest. Collateral volatility necessitates over-collateralization to protect lenders and ensure competitive returns. Traditional DeFi platforms use a fixed interest rate curve based on the utilization rate (the fraction of available assets borrowed) and determine over-collateralization offline through simulations to manage risk. This method doesn't adapt well to dynamic market changes, such as price fluctuations and evolving user needs, often resulting in losses for lenders or borrowers. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive, data-driven protocol for DeFi borrowing and lending. Our approach includes a high-frequency controller that dynamically adjusts interest rates to maintain market stability and competitiveness with external markets. Unlike traditional protocols, which rely on user reactions and often adjust slowly, our controller uses a learning-based algorithm to quickly find optimal interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost for users during periods of misalignment with external rates. Additionally, we use a low-frequency planner that analyzes user behavior to set an optimal over-collateralization ratio, balancing risk reduction with profit maximization over the long term. This dual approach is essential for adaptive markets: the short-term component maintains market stability, preventing exploitation, while the long-term planner optimizes market parameters to enhance profitability and reduce risks. We provide theoretical guarantees on the convergence rates and adversarial robustness of the short-term component and the long-term effectiveness of our protocol. Empirical validation confirms our protocol's theoretical benefits.
Viraj Nadkarni, Sanjeev R. Kulkarni, Pramod Viswanath
Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are essential in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) as they match liquidity supply with demand. They function through liquidity providers (LPs) who deposit assets into liquidity pools. However, the asset trading prices in these pools often trail behind those in more dynamic, centralized exchanges, leading to potential arbitrage losses for LPs. This issue is tackled by adapting market maker bonding curves to trader behavior, based on the classical market microstructure model of Glosten and Milgrom. Our approach ensures a zero-profit condition for the market maker's prices. We derive the differential equation that an optimal adaptive curve should follow to minimize arbitrage losses while remaining competitive. Solutions to this optimality equation are obtained for standard Gaussian and Lognormal price models using Kalman filtering. A key feature of our method is its ability to estimate the external market price without relying on price or loss oracles. We also provide an equivalent differential equation for the implied dynamics of canonical static bonding curves and establish conditions for their optimality. Our algorithms demonstrate robustness to changing market conditions and adversarial perturbations, and we offer an on-chain implementation using Uniswap v4 alongside off-chain AI co-processors.
Burak Öz, Danning Sui, Thomas Thiery, Florian Matthes
The MEV-Boost block auction contributes approximately 90% of all Ethereum blocks. Between October 2023 and March 2024, only three builders produced 80% of them, highlighting the concentration of power within the block builder market. To foster competition and preserve Ethereum's decentralized ethos and censorship-resistance properties, understanding the dominant players' competitive edges is essential. In this paper, we identify features that play a significant role in builders' ability to win blocks and earn profits by conducting a comprehensive empirical analysis of MEV-Boost auctions over a six-month period. We reveal that block market share positively correlates with order flow diversity, while profitability correlates with access to order flow from Exclusive Providers, such as integrated searchers and external providers with exclusivity deals. Additionally, we show a positive correlation between market share and profit margin among the top ten builders, with features such as exclusive signal, non-atomic arbitrages, and Telegram bot flow strongly correlating with both metrics. This highlights a "chicken-and-egg" problem where builders need differentiated order flow to profit, but only receive such flow if they have a significant market share. Overall, this work provides an in-depth analysis of the key features driving the builder market towards centralization and offers valuable insights for designing further iterations of Ethereum block auctions, preserving Ethereum's censorship resistance properties.
Sabrina Leo, Andrea Delle Foglie, Luca Barbaro, Edoardo Marangone · 6 authors
Credit Guarantee Schemes (CGSs) are crucial in mitigating SMEs' financial constraints. However, they are renownedly affected by critical shortcomings, such as a lack of financial sustainability and operational efficiency. Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLTs) have shown significant revolutionary influence in several sectors, including finance and banking, thanks to the full operational traceability they bring alongside verifiable computation. Nevertheless, the potential synergy between DLTs and CGSs has not been thoroughly investigated yet. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework to utilise DLTs, particularly blockchain technologies, in CGS processes to improve operational efficiency and effectiveness. To this end, we compare key architectural characteristics considering access level, governance structure, and consensus method, to examine their fit with CGS processes. We believe this study can guide policymakers and stakeholders, thereby stimulating further innovation in this promising field.
Currently cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance (DeFi), which enable financial services on public blockchains, represents a new growing trend in finance. In contrast to financial markets, ruled by traditional corporations, DeFi is completely transparent as it keeps records of all transactions that occur in the network and makes them publicly available. The availability of the data represents an opportunity to analyze and understand the market from the complexity that emerges from the interactions of the actors (users, bots and companies) operating in the embedded market. In this paper we focus on the Ethereum network and our main goal is to show that the properties of the underlying transaction network provide further and useful information to forecast the evolution of the market. We aim to separate the non redundant effects of the blockchain transaction network properties from classic technical indicators and social media trends in the future price of Ethereum. To this end, we build two machine learning models to predict the future trend of the market. The first one serves as a base model and considers a set of the most relevant features according to the current scientific literature including technical indicators and social media trends. The second model considers the features of the base model, together with the network properties computed from the transaction networks. We found that the full model outperforms the base model and can anticipate 46 more rises in the price than the base model and 19 more falls.
This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) in a daily timeframe. The methods used to teach the data are hybrid and backpropagation algorithms, as well as grid partition, subtractive clustering, and Fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) algorithms, which are used in data clustering. The architectural performance designed in this paper has been compared with different inputs and neural network models in terms of statistical evaluation criteria. Finally, the proposed method can predict the price of digital currencies in a short time.
Wash trading in decentralized markets remains a significant concern magnified by the pseudonymous and public nature of blockchains. In this paper we introduce an innovative methodology designed to detect wash trading activities beyond surface-level transactions. Our approach integrates NFT ownership traces with the Ethereum Transaction Network, encompassing the complete historical record of all Ethereum account normal transactions. By analyzing both networks, our method offers a notable advancement over techniques proposed by existing research. We analyzed the wash trading activity of 7 notable NFT collections. Our results show that wash trading in unregulated NFT markets is an underestimated concern and is much more widespread both in terms of frequency as well as volume. Excluding the Meebits collection, which emerged as an outlier, we found that wash trading constituted up to 25% of the total trading volume. Specifically, for the Meebits collection, a staggering 93% of its total trade volume was attributed to wash trading.
Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the chaotic and intricately complex nature of crypto markets. In this study, we present a novel prediction algorithm using limit order book (LOB) data rooted in the Hawkes model, a category of point processes. Coupled with a continuous output error (COE) model, our approach offers a precise forecast of return signs by leveraging predictions of future financial interactions. Capitalizing on the non-uniformly sampled structure of the original time series, our strategy surpasses benchmark models in both prediction accuracy and cumulative profit when implemented in a trading environment. The efficacy of our approach is validated through Monte Carlo simulations across 50 scenarios. The research draws on LOB measurements from a centralized cryptocurrency exchange where the stablecoin Tether is exchanged against the U.S. dollar.
Automated Market Maker (AMM)-based Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are crucial in Decentralized Finance (DeFi), but Ethereum implementations suffer from high transaction costs and price synchronization challenges. To address these limitations, we compare the XRP Ledger (XRPL)-AMM-Decentralized Exchange (DEX), a protocol-level implementation, against a Generic AMM-based DEX (G-AMM-DEX) on Ethereum, akin to Uniswap's V2 AMM implementation, through agent-based simulations using real market data and multiple volatility scenarios generated via Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Results demonstrate that the XRPL-AMM-DEX achieves superior price synchronization, reduced slippage, and improved returns due to XRPL's lower fees and shorter block times, with benefits amplifying during market volatility. The integrated Continuous Auction Mechanism (CAM) further mitigates impermanent loss by redistributing arbitrage value to Liquidity Providers (LPs). To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first comparative analysis between protocol-level and smart contract AMM-based DEX implementations and the first agent-based simulation validating theoretical auction mechanisms for AMM-based DEXs.
NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) have seen significant growth since they first captured public attention in 2021. However, the NFT market is plagued by fake transactions and economic bubbles, e.g., NFT wash trading. Wash trading typically refers to a transaction involving the same person or two colluding individuals, and has become a major threat to the NFT ecosystem. Previous studies only detect NFT wash trading from the financial aspect, while the real-world wash trading cases are much more complicated (e.g., not aiming at inflating the market value). There is still a lack of multi-dimension analysis to better understand NFT wash trading. Therefore, we present the most comprehensive study of NFT wash trading, analyzing 8,717,031 transfer events and 3,830,141 sale events from 2,701,883 NFTs. We first optimize the dataset collected via the OpenSea API. Next, we identify three types of NFT wash trading and propose identification algorithms. Our experimental results reveal 824 transfer events and 5,330 sale events (accounting for a total of \$8,857,070.41) and 370 address pairs related to NFT wash trading behaviors, causing a minimum loss of \$3,965,247.13. Furthermore, we provide insights from six aspects, i.e., marketplace design, profitability, NFT project design, payment token, user behavior, and NFT ecosystem.
Md Abrar Jahin, Saleh Akram Naife, Anik Kumar Saha, M. F. Mridha
Supply chain risk assessment (SCRA) is pivotal for ensuring resilience in increasingly complex global supply networks. While existing reviews have explored traditional methodologies, they often neglect emerging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) applications and mostly lack combined systematic and bibliometric analyses. This study addresses these gaps by integrating a systematic literature review with bibliometric analysis, examining 1,903 articles (2015-2025) from Google Scholar and Web of Science, with 54 studies selected through PRISMA guidelines. Our findings reveal that ML models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and hybrid approaches, significantly enhance risk prediction accuracy and adaptability in post-pandemic contexts. The bibliometric analysis identifies key trends, influential authors, and institutional contributions, highlighting China and the United States as leading research hubs. Practical insights emphasize the integration of explainable AI (XAI) for transparent decision-making, real-time data utilization, and blockchain for traceability. The study underscores the necessity of dynamic strategies, interdisciplinary collaboration, and continuous model evaluation to address challenges such as data quality and interpretability. By synthesizing AI-driven methodologies with resilience frameworks, this review provides actionable guidance for optimizing supply chain risk management, fostering adaptability, and informing future research in evolving risk landscapes.
A growing number of products use layer 2 solutions to expand the capabilities of primary blockchains like Ethereum, where computation is off-loaded from the root chain, and the results are published to it in bulk. Those include optimistic and zero-knowledge rollups, information oracles, and app-specific chains. This work presents an analysis of layer 2 blockchain strategies determining the optimal times for publishing transactions on the root chain. There is a trade-off between waiting for a better layer 1 gas price and the urgency to finalize layer 2 transactions. We present a model for the problem that captures this trade-off, generalizing previous works, and we analyze the properties of optimal publishing strategies. We show that such optimal strategies hold a computable simple form for a large class of cost functions.
Nir Chemaya, Lin William Cong, Emma Jorgensen, Dingyue Liu · 5 authors
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is reshaping traditional finance by enabling direct transactions without intermediaries, creating a rich source of open financial data. Layer 2 (L2) solutions are emerging to enhance the scalability and efficiency of the DeFi ecosystem, surpassing Layer 1 (L1) systems. However, the impact of L2 solutions is still underexplored, mainly due to the lack of comprehensive transaction data indices for economic analysis. This study bridges that gap by analyzing over 50 million transactions from Uniswap, a major decentralized exchange, across both L1 and L2 networks. We created a set of daily indices from blockchain data on Ethereum, Optimism, Arbitrum, and Polygon, offering insights into DeFi adoption, scalability, decentralization, and wealth distribution. Additionally, we developed an open-source Python framework for calculating decentralization indices, making this dataset highly useful for advanced machine learning research. Our work provides valuable resources for data scientists and contributes to the growth of the intelligent Web3 ecosystem.
We study Just-in-time (JIT) liquidity provision in blockchain-based decentralized exchanges. A JIT liquidity provider (LP) monitors pending swap orders in public mempools of blockchains to sandwich orders of their choice with liquidity, depositing right before and withdrawing right after the order. Our game-theoretic model with asymmetrically informed agents reveals that a JIT LP's presence does not always enhance liquidity pool depth, as one might expect. While passive LPs face adverse selection by informed arbitrageurs, a JIT LP's ability to detect pending orders for toxic order flow prior to liquidity provision lets them avoid being adversely selected. JIT LPs thus only provide liquidity to uninformed orders and crowd out passive LPs when order volume is not sufficiently elastic to pool depth, possibly reducing overall market liquidity. We show that using a two-tiered fee structure which transfers a part of a JIT LP's fee revenue to passive LPs or allowing for JIT LPs to compete à la Cournot are potential solutions to mitigate the negative effects of JIT liquidity.
Md. Raisul Hasan Shahrukh, Md. Tabassinur Rahman, Nafees Mansoor
Blockchain technology has emerged as a game-changer in a variety of industries, providing robust solutions that can supplant conventional procedures. The unique potential of this technology originates from its decentralized ledger systems, which enable enhanced security, transparency, and the validation of transactions without the need for intermediaries. Notably, the financial sector is making substantial progress toward implementing blockchain solutions for a variety of operations, including remittances, lending, and investments. The healthcare industry is simultaneously incorporating this technology into systems for managing medical records, tracing supply chains, and data management. Similarly, the capacity of blockchain to enhance transparency, traceability, and accountability is widely acknowledged in supply chain management, from the procurement of basic materials to the delivery of finished goods. Diverse industries, including real estate, energy, and government, are actively investigating the potential of blockchain to improve efficiency, security, and transparency. Notably, Hyperledger Besu, an open-source blockchain platform, is used to implement smart contracts that automate processes and reduce manual intervention along distribution pathways. This exhaustive review examines the transformative potential of blockchain technology across a variety of industries, discussing the obstacles encountered and providing key insights into future research and development directions. This paper seeks to serve as a pivotal resource for academics, industry stakeholders, and policymakers by synthesizing existing scholarly literature and shedding light on significant findings.
Raisul Hasan Shahrukh, Tabassinur Rahman, Nafees Mansoor
Blockchain technology has emerged as a disruptive force with transformative potential across numerous industries, promising efficient and automated solutions that can revolutionize traditional systems. By leveraging decentralized ledger systems, blockchain offers enhanced security, transparency, and transaction verification without the need for intermediaries. The finance sector is exploring blockchain-based solutions for payments, remittances, lending, and investments, while healthcare adopts the technology for medical record keeping, supply chain tracking, and data management. Similarly, supply chain management benefits from blockchain's ability to enhance transparency, traceability, and accountability from raw materials to finished products. Other sectors, including real estate, energy, and government, are also investigating blockchain-based solutions to improve efficiency, security, and transparency. Furthermore, smart contracts within the blockchain enable process automation, reducing manual intervention in distribution workflows. AidNeux, a consortium-based blockchain DApp, reimagines the distribution of financial assistance by addressing inefficiencies and opaqueness. Using smart contracts ensures the security and directness of money transfers. Its robust digital identity verification and real-time auditability reduce fraud risks and strengthen accountability, thereby presenting a scalable, transparent solution to problems inherent to conventional financial aid systems.
Md. Raisul Hasan Shahrukh, Md. Tabassinur Rahman, Nafees Mansoor
Blockchain, a decentralized technology that provides unrivaled security, transparency, and process validation, is redefining the operational landscape across numerous industries. This article focuses on the development of an innovative consortium blockchain-based financial distribution application. This paper illuminates the transformative role of blockchain technology in a variety of sectors by drawing on a plethora of academic literature and current industry practices. It demonstrates the diverse applications of blockchain, ranging from remittances to lending and investments in finance to data administration in healthcare and supply chain tracking. The paper reveals the design and potential of a consortium blockchainbased application for financial distribution. Utilizing the capabilities of Hyperledger Besu, the application is tailored to improve security, scalability, and interoperability, thereby contributing to a more integrated financial ecosystem. The investigation sheds light on the combination of consortium blockchain’ controlled access and Hyprledger Besu’ comprehensive functionality, proposing a secure, transparent, and efficient financial transaction environment. The investigation serves as a resource for academics, industry professionals, and policymakers alike, highlighting the vast potential of blockchain technology, enabled by platforms such as Hyperledger Besu, in accelerating the evolution of traditional systems toward a more decentralized, secure, and efficient future.