This research examines the determinants of Bitcoin (BTC) valuation from January 2011 to December 2025 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that the monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve—specifically liquidity expansion and interest rate adjustments—drives price dynamics, confirming a pro-cyclical nexus. At the microeconomic level, the density of active institutional addresses and the marginal cost of production significantly influence price trajectories. Furthermore, heightened market volatility, represented by the VIX, exerts a statistically significant negative impact on BTC returns. The findings suggest that Bitcoin has transitioned into a sophisticated value asset, underpinned by production efficiencies and an expanding institutional base. Consequently, Bitcoin represents a viable alternative to centralised financial systems, offering a potential hedge against inflation and the erosion of purchasing power. The study concludes that digital assets warrant inclusion within conservative institutional portfolios, notwithstanding the inherent speculative nature of the market.
Yurii Kvasiuk, Tianyi Li, Owen Colegrove, Moritz Münchmeyer
We explore the application of LLM-driven algorithm optimization to several common tasks in quantitative finance. MadEvolve, a general-purpose algorithm optimization framework inspired by DeepMind's Alpha-Evolve, was recently developed to optimize algorithms in computational cosmology. Here we demonstrate the utility of MadEvolve to optimize algorithmic trading strategies and alpha generation at the example of Bitcoin trading. On our simulation and backtesting setup, we achieve significant improvements on all tasks we considered, such as evolving feature sets for signal generation, optimizing separate components of the trading strategy, and jointly evolving the feature pipeline together with the execution strategy. Additionally, we compare our method to other agentic search approaches, specifically Claude Code, and carefully evaluate p-hacking probabilities on our simulation setup. Our findings strongly support the utility of AI-driven agentic and evolutionary algorithms for algorithmic trading and quantitative finance.
ABSTRACT TRSP Digital Coin (TDC) — The Next Evolution of Digital Currency: Quantum-Permanent, Physically Unbreakable, Theft-Proof by Physics Built on: Temporal Rotation Security Protocol (TRSP) v3, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20324081. First public documentation: May 2026. TDC is not a replacement for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any existing digital currency. It is the next evolutionary step for the entire field — the first digital currency architecture whose security is grounded not in mathematical complexity but in physical law. Every existing digital currency rests on one assumption: that breaking the cryptographic protection requires more computational resources than any adversary possesses. Quantum computing is dismantling this assumption. Harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks mean every blockchain transaction recorded today remains permanently vulnerable to any future computational advance. TDC responds with a different premise: a signing key that no longer exists cannot be recovered by any computation, quantum or classical, regardless of future advances. TDC inherits the temporal rotation architecture of TRSP v3. Transaction signing keys rotate every 10–100 milliseconds from physical hardware entropy and are permanently destroyed after each rotation. CRATON-anchored ownership proof replaces persistent private key storage: ownership is demonstrated through a one-time physical commitment derived from the unique state of the signing device at transaction time — used once, permanently destroyed, impossible to forge, impossible to extract, impossible to replay. Three attack paths are structurally closed: private key extraction (no stored key exists), quantum key recovery (key destroyed before computation converges), and harvest-now-decrypt-later (signing key permanently gone — no target for any future computation). Part 9 (Identity Without Storage) documents a five-factor distributed identity architecture in which no single factor and no single location holds everything required to authorise a transaction: biometric presence; primary device CRATON anchor; memorised PIN with distress code variant; Remote Guardian Device in a separate geographic location; and time lock with geo-anchor. The distress PIN architecture triggers a silent alert and time-delayed freeze while providing apparent confirmation to an adversary — making the coercion attack structurally ineffective. Wallet recovery requires no seed phrase: a five-step multi-factor re-enrollment protocol using biometric presence, guardian confirmation, and a 72-hour cancellation window replaces the stored backup phrase that represents the primary theft surface of every existing wallet. Part 10 (Real Identity Enrollment) documents a biometric enrollment architecture that exceeds current KYC bank account standards: NFC chip reading of government-issued documents (cryptographic verification against issuing government public key — not photo or scan), live 3D facial biometric with active liveness detection, all-finger fingerprint enrollment, and a CRATON physical moment binding that ties the enrollment to the unique physical state of the enrollment device at that exact moment. Raw biometric data is deleted after enrollment — only a non-reversible binding token is retained. Identity is distributed across three separately held, individually insufficient components: Enrollment Authority, blockchain, and device. No single party holds all three. Legitimate financial privacy is preserved. The enrollment barrier is structurally higher than any existing digital currency. AML, KYC, GDPR, FATF Travel Rule, and sanctions compliance are structural properties, not regulatory overlays. Part 12 (Implementation Roadmap) documents a four-phase deployment pathway modelled on pharmaceutical clinical trial methodology. Phase 1 (Year 1–2): proof of concept with small high-security institutions — private banks, family offices, university research groups — using software-only TRSP daemon and TEE-based CRATON. Phase 2 (Year 2–4): institutional pilot with mid-size financial institutions and government treasury departments — dedicated CRATON hardware module, Remote Guardian architecture, orbital quorum activated above threshold. Phase 3 (Year 3–5): national pilot with CBDC programmes and full jurisdiction regulatory validation — complete five-factor identity, consumer enrollment refined at national scale. Phase 4 (Year 5–10): global rollout — CRATON chip standardisation licensable to semiconductor manufacturers, TLS 1.3 extension standardised through IETF, "Secured by TDC" certification programme. Each phase generates performance data that validates and de-risks the subsequent phase. The worst outcome at any phase is a parameter adjustment — no user loses funds, no system collapses. Part 13 (Digital Estate Architecture) addresses the inheritance problem that every existing digital currency has left unsolved: what happens to assets when the owner dies. Three mechanisms work together. Designated Heir Enrollment: heirs are biometrically pre-registered at wallet setup — enrolled but cryptographically inactive during the owner's lifetime, with no access to balance or transaction history. Death Verification Protocol: succession requires three simultaneous conditions — official government-issued death certificate verified by the Enrollment Authority, 2-of-N Remote Guardian confirmation, and a mandatory 90-day waiting period during which the owner can cancel with biometric presence. Dead Man's Switch: an optional owner-defined inactivity window that triggers Guardian alerts and initiates the succession protocol if neither owner nor Guardian responds within the alert window. For owners without designated heirs: charitable designation to enrolled organisations, institutional estate trustee, or deliberate coin retirement. Owner financial privacy is maintained completely during lifetime. Post-succession historical access is configurable by the owner at setup. Novel contribution NC-TDC-17 is placed on the public record as defensive prior art. Privacy architecture clarification: the default state of every TDC wallet is complete financial anonymity. Identity disclosure is exclusively owner-initiated — the owner may selectively disclose individual transactions for tax certification, charitable donation receipts, regulatory compliance, or proof of funds. No court order, no government authority, and no institution can access wallet identity or transaction history without the owner's willing biometric participation. The three-part distributed binding token architecture makes bypass technically impossible — not merely legally prohibited. This is not a policy decision. It is a physical property of the architecture enforced by the requirement for live owner biometric activation of the device component. Novel contributions NC-TDC-13 (Geographic Coercion Evidence Layer), NC-TDC-14 (Phased Validation Rollout Architecture), NC-TDC-15 (Owner-Controlled Selective Disclosure), NC-TDC-16 (Enrollment-Anchored Privacy Architecture), and NC-TDC-17 (Digital Estate Architecture) are hereby placed on the public record as defensive prior art. Novel contributions NC-TDC-1 through NC-TDC-17 are placed on the public record as defensive prior art: quantum-permanent transaction signing; CRATON-anchored ownership proof; Generation 4 digital currency architecture; five-factor distributed identity; distress PIN with silent alert; Remote Guardian Device architecture; seed-phrase-free recovery protocol; biometric-CRATON enrollment binding; privacy-preserving three-part identity distribution; AML/KYC compliance by architecture; tiered enrollment framework; orbital CRATON quorum for sovereign transfers. The architectural frameworks described in this concept represent technical design guidelines only and are not legal advice, regulatory guidance, or binding specifications. Actual implementation in any jurisdiction will require adaptation to applicable local law including inheritance law, data protection regulation, anti-money laundering legislation, and financial services licensing requirements. Version 2 introduces four formal additions. Mathematical Formalization (Part 6.1.5): the transaction pipeline is formally specified as a four-step ephemeral verification protocol — KDF ephemeral key generation from physical entropy (sk_eph, pk_eph) = KDF(E_phys); Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge Proof binding the ephemeral public key to the enrollment token without exposing persistent identity credentials; hardware-enforced destructive readout with thermodynamic irreversibility anchored in Landauer's Principle (ΔW ≥ n·k_B·T·ln2); and deterministic public-parameter-only ledger validation. Formal Threat Model (Part 4.5): three adversary classes formally defined — quantum network attacker (A_network, unbounded computational resources), malware/hardware attacker (A_local, full OS compromise), and coercion attacker (A_kinetic, physical duress) — with security proofs against each. Part 7b (AI-to-AI Micropayment Architecture, NC-TDC-21) documents the application of TDC quantum-permanent transaction signing to autonomous AI agent commerce. Every existing AI payment mechanism — static API keys, server-stored crypto wallets, centralised billing — represents a permanent credential attack surface vulnerable to quantum decryption. TDC coin eliminates this: each AI-to-AI transaction generates a CRATON commitment from the hardware entropy of the transacting inference node at that exact millisecond, used once to sign the micropayment and immediately destroyed. No stored credential on any server. Five new markets are documented: pay-per-inference settlement (USD 50B+ annual market), CRATON-anchored API key replacement, autonomous multi-agent revenue distribution at service delivery, AI training data micropayments for individual contributions, and cross-agent behavioural monitoring via the AI Guardian Layer at machine speed. The AI Guardian Layer (NC-TDC-19) monitors t
Como a perícia blockchain organiza evidências para vítimas e advogados Golpes com criptomoedas costumam envolver promessas de investimento, falsas corretoras, pirâmides, phishing, malware, engenharia social e transferências para carteiras controladas por fraudadores. A boa notícia é que blockchains públicas deixam rastros verificáveis. A má notícia é que transformar esses rastros em prova útil exige método. O que a perícia blockchain consegue mapear Uma análise técnica pode identificar transações de entrada e saída, carteiras intermediárias, consolidação de valores, uso de bridges, mixers, exchanges, contratos de tokens e movimentações de stablecoins como USDT e USDC. O objetivo é reconstruir o caminho do ativo e apontar possíveis pontos de identificação.
Bitcoin price prediction has attracted hundreds of academic papers and continuous social media debate, yet the field lacks consensus on even basic questions: can any model beat a naive "today's price" baseline at horizons of one to six months? We survey the peer-reviewed landscape, categorize papers by evaluation methodology, and contrast academic findings with informal but substantive discourse on X/Twitter. The picture that emerges is sobering. At short-to-medium horizons, no peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes. Daily predictability is real but does not extend to hourly or monthly horizons, and may not survive transaction costs. The stock-to-flow model has failed formal out-of-sample testing, and Metcalfe's Law valuations have been challenged as spurious. The Bitcoin price power law, while empirically compelling, has not been subjected to formal distributional tests. Meanwhile, social media practitioners raise valid statistical critiques -- ordinary least squares (OLS) violations, backtest overfitting, spurious regressions -- that the academic literature has not formalized. We identify open research directions and propose concrete methodological standards for future work -- walk-forward evaluation, multi-regime holdout windows, naive baseline comparison, inclusion of zero in hyperparameter grids, and Diebold-Mariano significance testing -- arguing that the field's primary need is not more models but better evaluation.
Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \sim t^β$ with $\hatβ\approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant distributional series, and develop three principled time-domain adaptations of the protocol. We find that (i) the distributional power law is rejected on UTXO balances and daily |returns|, with lognormal preferred decisively; (ii) the fitted time-domain exponent varies by nearly a factor of three across reasonable shifts of the time origin -- it is not specification-robust in the sense required for a shift-invariant structural reading; (iii) standard residual diagnostics and scale-invariance tests proposed in earlier work cannot distinguish a power law from a multi-component sigmoid stack fit to the same data; (iv) Bitcoin price stands apart in a cross-asset comparison spanning Bitcoin on-chain metrics and traditional asset classes: it is the only series in the nine-series in-sample test where no single-component growth curve improves on the power law, and the quarterly $K=3$ wave-stability bootstrap rejects the PL+AR(1) null on Bitcoin at $p = 0.015$ (strict 15% CV threshold) -- a clear cross-asset separation, although not a Bonferroni-robust rejection; and (v) walk-forward Diebold-Mariano evaluation against ten candidates -- including standard time-series baselines (RW with drift, auto-ARIMA, ETS, local-linear-trend) -- shows the in-sample winner (multi-sigmoid) is among the worst long-horizon forecasters, while the simple power law dominates 12-24 month horizons against every standard baseline at $p < 0.05$, precisely because it does not commit to specific wave shapes. The fit-prediction tradeoff is the practical counterpart of the descriptive findings.
This paper presents a personal archive of documented participation in the Bitcoin ecosystem from 2013 to 2026. Scope Declaration: This is an exploratory observational record, not an empirical verification of causal claims. The author registered accounts with MtGox, Bitcoin Foundation, BitcoinStore, Beastoptions, and BuyBitcoin.ph during the earliest phase of Bitcoins civilizational transition. Each registration is timestamped and verifiable through preserved email archives. The author subsequently withdrew from the MtGox ecosystem prior to its 2014 collapse - a decision made on instinct, not analysis. This paper argues that such instinctive withdrawal constitutes a form of cosmic synchronization within the framework of Tendo Economics (V = N/D).
Pim Keer, Ioannis Alexopoulos, Matteo Maffei, Marco Argentieri · 6 authors
Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalisation, but its widespread adoption is fundamentally limited by the scalability constraints of its consensus algorithm, which requires every transaction to be confirmed onchain. To address this, several Layer-2 scalability solutions have been proposed to move payments offchain -- most notably, the Lightning Network. However, their deployment remains hindered by cumbersome setup requirements: users must lock funds onchain to participate and engage in complex auxiliary protocols (e.g., for channel rebalancing, top-ups, and routing). Other solutions, like payment pools, sidechains and rollups, cannot be implemented in a non-custodial way on Bitcoin due to its limited scripting capabilities, or require all protocol participants to update the offchain state. In this work, we present Ark, the first Bitcoin-compatible commit-chain. Ark enables offchain transactions of virtual UTXOs (VTXOs), through an untrusted operator who aggregates them into succinct onchain commitments. A distinctive feature of Ark is its ease of deployment: users can receive offchain payments without locking any funds beforehand and Ark state updates can be performed only requiring the users involved in that update. We formally define the Ark protocol and prove its security. During this process, we identified two attacks affecting the testnet implementation, which we responsibly disclosed and proposed fixes for, which have been now integrated into the mainnet implementation. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that Ark can commit onchain to batches of arbitrarily many VTXOs with a constant-sized footprint of approximately 200 vB. Cooperative exits add one output per user, while unilateral exits require $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$ transactions of roughly 150 vB per VTXO for a batch of $n$ VTXOs.
This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.
Bitcoin recently introduced a new protocol for the encryption of peer-to-peer (P2P) communication. The protocol, known as V2 P2P transport, represents a big step towards securing the overlay network against various previously-known attack vectors. Based on an analysis of V2 P2P transport, this work examines the current viability of said attacks and concludes that while they are now remediated, alternative attacks and paths to similar objectives exist. The identified shortcomings are conceptual (and not implementation bugs) and even applicable to other P2P networks. We show how a network-level attacker can identify application messages using the length of TCP payloads, can eclipse a target node by taking advantage of how encrypted communication channels work and can downgrade all of a node's connections to the unencrypted protocol by using the mechanisms designed for compatibility. We validate our contributions using a combination of network measurements, emulations and simulations. Finally, we propose a series of short-term and long-term countermeasures towards securing Bitcoin's P2P network. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study Bitcoin's security under V2 P2P transport.
The past decade has witnessed unprecedented innovation in financial technology, most notably the rise of cryptocurrency and digital assets. This paper examines how these developments have fundamentally reshaped one of monetary economics’ most enduring concepts: the money multiplier. From Bitcoin’s emergence to today’s complex ecosystem of stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi), digital assets have created parallel monetary systems that challenge central banks’ ability to measure and control the money supply (Bianchi et al., 2021).This paper has three primary objectives. First, to develop a theoretical framework that extends Divisia monetary aggregation - the gold standard for measuring money’s liquidity services (Barnett, 1980) to include cryptocurrencies and related digital assets, building on recent work applying Divisia indices to crypto-inclusive money demand (Mumtaz et al., 2025). Second, to derive a new crypto-adjusted money multiplier that captures liquidity creation across both traditional and digital financial systems, integrating the concept of the "crypto multiplier" introduced by Garratt and van Oordt (2023). Third, to analyse the implications for monetary policy transmission and financial stability using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model (Fernández-Villaverde et al., 2020), considering the growing synchronization between crypto and global equity cycles (Fund, 2023). By achieving these objectives, we provide policymakers, financial institutions, and researchers with tools to understand and navigate the hybrid financial landscape of the 2020s.
Cryptocurrency has emerged as a transformative asset class, reshaping traditional investment and portfolio management strategies. This study explores the impact of cryptocurrencies on modern investment portfolios, highlighting their potential for diversification, risk management, and return optimization. The decentralized nature of digital assets, combined with blockchain technology, has introduced a new paradigm in financial markets. However, the high volatility of cryptocurrencies remains a significant challenge, affecting portfolio stability and investor confidence (Brière, Oosterlinck, & Szafarz, 2015). This research examines key factors influencing cryptocurrency investments, including market trends, risk exposure, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption. By utilizing statistical analysis and market data, the study evaluates the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. The findings indicate that while cryptocurrencies can enhance portfolio diversification, they also exhibit greater price volatility than conventional financial assets (Corbet, Meegan, Larkin, Lucey, & Yarovaya, 2018). Additionally, the study investigates how institutional investors are integrating digital assets into their portfolios and examines the impact of regulatory policies on market stability. The results suggest that regulatory clarity significantly influences investor confidence and risk mitigation strategies (Auer & Claessens, 2020). Furthermore, Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge is analyzed, with evidence supporting its potential as a store of value during periods of economic uncertainty (Yermack, 2015). The study concludes that cryptocurrencies continue to represent an emerging yet highly uncertain asset class within modern portfolio management. While investors acknowledge the potential benefits of cryptocurrencies, including high return opportunities and portfolio diversification, significant concerns remain regarding market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and long-term sustainability. The findings reveal that investors perceive cryptocurrencies as high-risk investments and remain cautious about their consistent performance compared to traditional financial assets. The study further highlights that uncertainty surrounding global cryptocurrency regulations and market stability limits broader investor confidence and adoption. Although digital assets possess the potential to transform investment strategies through technological innovation and decentralized finance, investors continue to adopt a balanced and risk-conscious approach toward cryptocurrency investments. Therefore, effective regulatory frameworks, investor education, strategic asset allocation, and continuous monitoring of market developments are essential for the sustainable integration of cryptocurrencies into modern investment portfolios.
Daniel González Cortés, Monomita Nandy, Suman Lodh
Abstract This research analyzes the performance and interconnectedness of major global stock market indices and decentralized finance assets, specifically cryptocurrencies, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The study includes indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite from the United States, the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 from Europe, and the Nikkei 225 from Japan, and two more indices from China and India representing different economic regions. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are included to assess the impact of decentralized finance on traditional financial indices and asset allocation strategies. By employing Artificial Intelligence algorithms like ConvLSTM, the research measures the dynamic asset allocation and volatility management through an interconnected spillover matrix. The findings reveal that integrating ConvLSTM enhances the understanding of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, offering improved diversification opportunities due to their low correlation, decentralization, and inflation-hedge characteristics. The study’s results suggest that investors can make more informed decisions regarding dynamic asset allocation in high-volatility portfolios, providing indicators of rising systemic risk and market stress.
The rapid adoption of Web3 infrastructures has led to a growing number of security incidents affecting cryptocurrency exchanges, custody services and blockchain-based platforms. While existing research predominantly focuses on vulnerabilities in smart contracts and blockchain protocols, a substantial portion of real-world losses originates from off-chain systems, organizational processes and human-centered operational workflows. This paper presents a qualitative, incident-based analysis of publicly documented, high-impact security breaches in the Web3 ecosystem, including the Bybit exchange incident (2025), the Ronin Network bridge compromise (2022), and the DMM Bitcoin exchange breach (2024). The selected cases are systematically analysed and mapped to established Web2 security reference frameworks, including OWASP-based vulnerability categories and organizational security control domains. The results indicate that dominant failure patterns in Web3 environments are insufficiently addressed by generic security control catalogues, particularly with respect to cryptographic key management, transaction approval governance, signer and validator infrastructure, third-party tooling dependencies, and human-in-the-loop processes. Based on these findings, this paper argues for the adoption of established information security management systems (ISMS) in Web3 organizations and derives a structured set of blockchain-specific cybersecurity control categories to operationalize existing ISMS frameworks for blockchain-based systems. The proposed categories aim to bridge the gap between generic security governance frameworks and domain-specific risks inherent to Web3 infrastructures.
The article examines digital financial assets as an instrument of investment portfolio diversification in the Ukrainian investment context. The study argues that Bitcoin and Ethereum should not be assessed through general statements about financial innovation, but through their measurable contribution to portfolio return, volatility and risk-adjusted performance. The empirical part is based on an annual scenario model for 2020–2025 and compares portfolios with 0%, 1%, 3%, 5% and 10% exposure to BTC and ETH. The benchmark portfolio includes domestic government bonds, the USD/UAH currency component, gold and the S&P 500 as a global equity benchmark, while the local Ukrainian equity segment is interpreted cautiously because of its limited liquidity. The results show that portfolios with 1–5% exposure to BTC and ETH improved risk-adjusted efficiency compared with the baseline portfolio. The P3 scenario provided the most balanced relationship between return growth and risk growth, while P5 generated a higher average annual return with still acceptable volatility. The P10 scenario produced the highest geometric average annual return but almost tripled volatility compared with the baseline portfolio, making it more suitable for an aggressive investor profile. The article concludes that digital financial assets may have practical value only as a limited high-risk addition to a diversified portfolio, not as a stable hedging instrument or a substitute for traditional instruments.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan meramalkan kinerja harga Bitcoin menggunakan pendekatan TimeGPT , sebuah model berbasis transformer yang dikembangkan khusus untuk data deret waktu oleh Nixtla. Dengan pendekatan kuantitatif, studi ini memanfaatkan data historis harga Bitcoin untuk mengidentifikasi pola dan tren melalui kemampuan pemodelan AI modern. TimeGPT , sebagai model pre-trained, memungkinkan analisis tanpa pelatihan tambahan (zero-shot learning) dan memberikan efisiensi dalam peramalan jangka pendek maupun menengah. Metode penelitian mencakup tahap pra-pemrosesan data, pemanfaatan API TimeGPT untuk menghasilkan prediksi, serta evaluasi hasil dengan metrik statistik seperti MAE dan RMSE. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa TimeGPT mampu menangkap volatilitas pasar Bitcoin secara akurat, dengan tingkat kepercayaan prediksi yang tinggi pada periode stabil seperti 2024–2025. Namun, pada proyeksi jangka panjang, model menunjukkan peningkatan ketidakpastian, mencerminkan sensitivitas terhadap variabel eksternal seperti regulasi dan sentimen pasar. Studi ini menyimpulkan bahwa TimeGPT merupakan alat yang unggul dibandingkan metode konvensional (ARIMA, GARCH, LSTM) dalam menangani kompleksitas data kripto, dan dapat digunakan sebagai pendukung pengambilan keputusan investasi, terutama jika dikombinasikan dengan analisis fundamental dan pemantauan pasar secara real-time.
Jeong-Hyuck Park, Chanhee Park, Claudio J. Tessone, Yu Zhang
Digitalisation transforms money from distinguishable physical objects into fungible informational units. A recent theoretical framework predicts that such indistinguishable wealth obeys bosonic occupancy statistics, leading to geometric ownership distributions and enhanced inequality. Using Bitcoin blockchain data, we test this prediction on 63 UTXO denominations across 72 monthly snapshots (2018--2023). A one-parameter geometric model describes the ownership distributions, reproducing both mean holdings and their temporal evolution; Jensen--Shannon divergence values lie below $0.08$ in $99.74\%$ of cases. The inferred inverse-temperature parameter satisfies the analytic mean--temperature relation to better than $0.1\%$ in every sample -- a self-consistency test that two-parameter alternatives cannot pass -- and remains within a narrow band across eight orders of magnitude in denomination and over six years. Bitcoin UTXO ownership statistics are therefore consistent with bosonic occupancy laws, suggesting that the informational nature of electronic money may act as a structural driver of inequality in digital economies.
Simone Antonelli, Vincent Davis, Harrison Rush, Anthony Potdevin · 7 authors
The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction.
Abstract This study uses high-frequency price data to analyze risk connectivity among 15 cryptocurrencies, focusing on moments such as volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and jumps during the pre-COVID-19 era, the COVID-19 epidemic, and Russian-Ukrainian tensions. The results indicate that Ethereum Classic is a major shock transmitter in all periods, and this effect becomes more pronounced during geopolitical crises. In contrast, Stellar, Tezos, and Tron are important shock absorbers, particularly during market volatility. Jump risk analysis confirms the dominance of Ethereum Classic and its capacity to increase spillover risks during crises. For higher-order moments, the findings reveal that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dash are significant transmitters of skewness spreads, whereas Dash and Eos are significant transmitters of kurtosis spreads. Jump risk analysis confirms the dominance of Ethereum Classic and its capacity to increase spillover risks during crises. These findings highlight the need for targeted risk management strategies adjusted to cryptocurrency market dynamics.
A comparison of average Bitcoin prices in US dollars and average Wolf numbers for the solar cycle average for 2009–2025 allowed us to construct a model that explains 63.22% of the data variance. The author predicts a decline in the average annual Bitcoin price in 2026 and 2027.
LLM-based financial agents increasingly rely on both numerical market data and textual signals for sequential trading and stock prediction. However, financial misinformation often appears as subtle textual perturbations rather than explicit falsehoods, making it difficult to detect while still capable of significantly altering agent reasoning and decisions. To study this risk, we propose AutoRedTrader, an autonomous red-teaming framework that generates finance-specific misinformation through behavioral bias manipulation, minor textual perturbations, and rewriting strategies, with agent feedback used to strengthen attacks over time. We evaluate AutoRedTrader in a POMDP-based financial agent simulation environment, and further examine a time-series-informed grounding setting for robustness analysis. The framework enables systematic evaluation of how subtle misinformation affects financial agents and whether historical market evidence can stabilize decisions under misleading textual signals. We evaluate the framework on Bitcoin transaction data. The results show that AutoRedTrader achieves the strongest attack performance with 69.00% misinformation exposure rate and 26.67% attack success rate, outperforming general-purpose misinformation and red-teaming baselines. Ablation studies further show that all modules contribute to generating retrievable and decision-effective financial misinformation.
Active asset managers are increasingly including cryptocurrencies in their alternative asset allocations, highlighting their speculative and volatile nature. The aim of this research is to examine trends in the returns and volatility of cryptocurrencies while accounting for the depegging of stablecoins driven by speculative trading macroeconomic shocks, and technological shifts. It builds a sample, by market capitalisation, using data from the daily closing prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance (BNB), and Ripple (XRP), two fiat-backed stablecoins (USDT and USDC) and a cryptocurrency-collateralised stablecoin (DAI). As a first step, Granger causality tests were applied to examine the influence of stablecoin depegging events on crypto returns during financial market stress. The results indicate that DAI exhibits the most consistent Granger-causal relationship with cryptocurrency returns; whereas, the predictive power of USDT and USDC depegging events varies across assets. The analysis was extended by modelling volatility using an EGARCH-X model to study whether depegs also affect crypto during periods of market stress. In this case, the evidence for statistically significant effects is limited. Nevertheless, in the instances where significance is detected, the results are consistently linked to USDC.
This study aims to analyze the volatility dynamics and spillover phenomena among major crypto assets (Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum) and their relationship with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), a proxy for the Indonesian capital market. In the era of digital financial integration, the link between speculative crypto asset markets and conventional stock markets is a crucial issue for financial system stability. This study uses daily price time series data for the period 2020-2025. The analysis was conducted using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index approach to measure the magnitude of shock transmission between markets. The results indicate significant volatility transmission among the three crypto assets, with Bitcoin remaining the primary source of volatility. Furthermore, this study finds an increasing dynamic correlation between the global crypto market and the Indonesian capital market during periods of economic uncertainty. These findings have important implications for investors in portfolio diversification strategies and for Indonesian regulators in monitoring systemic risks originating from digital assets.