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1,505 results · page 30 of 63
Étienne Harb, Charbel Bassil, Talie Kassamany, Roland Baz
No abstract is available for this record.
Yiwen Gong, Mingtao Zhang, Xiaoyuan Zhang
As cryptocurrencies become the target of many investors, it is speculated that there may be a correlation between the trading prices of cryptocurrencies and other assets (e.g., TESLA and BITCOIN). On this basis, we try to build an arbitrage model among the TESLA, BITCOIN, and DOGECOIN to validate the feasibility by simulations using their trading data for 5 years. After conducting the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Co-integration test, etc., TESLA and BITCOIN are best correlated that co-integrated over a relatively long period. Within the range of co-integration, we construct the arbitrage model and design the transaction signals by setting a certain threshold. Subsequently, backtestings are carried out accordingly, where different spreads as trading thresholds lead to different results with large differences in returns. These results shed light on the decision on arbitrage investments for cryptocurrencies and other assets.
Rundong Gan, Le Wang, Xiangyu Ruan, Xiaodong Lin
Flash Loan, a popular lending service in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, allows users to borrow a large number of virtual assets without any collateral. It can be leveraged to support many financial activities (such as arbitrage, collateral swap, self-liquidation, etc.), but unfortunately, it is often abused for malicious intent. One example of abusing flash loan servicing is to simultaneously sell and buy the same crypto currency on the same exchange to mislead the market, aka wash trading. It can manipulate the crypto currency market at a very low cost (anecdotally average around 0.033 ETH gas fee for each transaction on Ethereum mainnet), thereby dramatically damaging the stability and fairness of the market. More seriously, attackers can amplify the market impact by borrowing more assets from Flash Loan platforms. Until now, there has been little attention paid to Flash-Loan-based wash trading, but meanwhile, we have started to witness significant wash trading activities using Flash Loan. In this research, we analyze the properties of Flash-Loan-based wash trading in detail and propose a heuristic-based detection method. The real-world Flash Loan transaction data from Ethereum is used to verify our proposed detection method and more than 6,000 wash transactions were found. Moreover, we analyze the relationship between wash transactions and fluctuations in the price and volume of targeted assets. Finally, we evaluate the cost difference between traditional wash trading and Flash-Loan-based wash trading to reveal the attackers' motivation.
An Pham Ngoc Nguyen, Tai Tan, Marija Bezbradica, Martin Crane
We analyze the correlation between different assets in the cryptocurrency market throughout different phases, specifically bearish and bullish periods. Taking advantage of a fine-grained dataset comprising 34 historical cryptocurrency price time series collected tick-by-tick on the HitBTC exchange, we observe the changes in interactions among these cryptocurrencies from two aspects: time and level of granularity. Moreover, the investment decisions of investors during turbulent times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are assessed by looking at the cryptocurrency community structure using various community detection algorithms. We found that finer-grain time series describes clearer the correlations between cryptocurrencies. Notably, a noise and trend removal scheme is applied to the original correlations thanks to the theory of random matrices and the concept of Market Component, which has never been considered in existing studies in quantitative finance. To this end, we recognized that investment decisions of cryptocurrency traders vary between bearish and bullish markets. The results of our work can help scholars, especially investors, better understand the operation of the cryptocurrency market, thereby building up an appropriate investment strategy suitable to the prevailing certain economic situation.
Samaira Tomer
The growth in information and communication technology has led to phenomenons in the financial sector as well. This primarily alludes to the introduction of cryptocurrencies, a decentralised medium of exchange, which provides an alternative to the centuries-old idea of physical money. There is a visible relationship between the principles of behavioural finance and the value/returns that these cryptocurrencies have. These currencies are not dependent on the behaviour of the financial markets and economy but instead on the supply and demand of the currency along with its popularity which is dependent purely on the individuals.
Berend J.D. Gort, Xiaoyang Liu, Xinghang Sun, Jiechao Gao · 6 authors
Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher return than that of more overfitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.
Simona Andreea Apostu, Mirela Panait, László Vasa, Constanţa Mihăescu · 5 authors
Although NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and cryptocurrencies are active on the same market, their prices are not so closely related over time. The objective of this paper is to identify the relationship between the two types of assets (NFTs and the cryptocurrencies Ethereum, Crypto Coin, and Bitcoin), using data for the period between September 2020 until February 2022. The conclusions of the study are useful for cryptocurrency and NFT issuers, but also for investors on the financial market who are reconfiguring their portfolios with increasing frequency, and use these new assets for speculative or hedging purposes based on blockchain technology. The results highlighted relationships between NFTs and Ethereum, between Ethereum and Crypto Coin, and between Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ethereum being a bridge between all four. Therefore, NFTs present a relationship with Ethereum, the NFTs price had a causal effect on the price of Ethereum.
Alexander Brauneis, Roland Mestel, Ryan Riordan, Erik Theissen
We study bitcoin to US dollar (BTCUSD) liquidity and liquidity determinants using order book data from three large cryptocurrency exchanges. The BTCUSD market is more liquid than US equity markets with bid–ask spreads often below 1 basis point. We find that BTCUSD liquidity is largely explained by same-exchange past liquidity, past cryptocurrency market-wide liquidity and volatility, and fees charged on the blockchain for bitcoin transfers. Surprisingly, we find that BTCUSD liquidity is unrelated to broader financial markets and financial market liquidity.
Wei Cui, Cunnian Gao
Wash trade is a common form of volume manipulation used to attract investors into the market and mislead them into making wrong investment judgments. Wash trade transactions are even more prominent in ERC20 cryptocurrencies. In this paper, we proposed two kinds of algorithms to reserve direct evidence of wash trade based on the on-chain transaction data of ERC20 cryptocurrencies. After labeling the wash trade, we continued to obtain features of the wash trade and quantify the volume of the wash trade. Our experiments show that for most ERC20 cryptocurrencies, the rate of wash trade reached over 15%. Specifically, over 30% of UNI token transactions were labeled as wash trade. It is demonstrated that the activations of most ERC20 cryptocurrencies are unreal, and restoring real data is necessary for market regulation.
Azhar Mohamad, Stavros Stavroyiannis
No abstract is available for this record.
Imran Yousaf, Larisa Yarovaya
We examine the static and time-varying herding behavior in three cryptocurrency classes: ‘conventional’ cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens, and DeFi assets during the most recent cryptocurrency bubble of 2021. While static herding analysis failed to demonstrate any evidence of herding, the time-varying herding has been identified in conventional cryptocurrencies and DeFi assets for the short investment horizons. The herding asymmetry analysis reveals that herding is not evident in conventional cryptocurrencies and NFT during up/down market, high/low volatility days, and high/low trading days. We only find herding in DeFi assets during the low volatility days.
Jacopo Fior, Luca Cagliero, Paolo Garza
In the last decade, cryptocurrency trading has attracted the attention of private and professional traders and investors. To forecast the financial markets, algorithmic trading systems based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) models are becoming more and more established. However, they suffer from the lack of transparency, thus hindering domain experts from directly monitoring the fundamentals behind market movements. This is particularly critical for cryptocurrency investors, because the study of the main factors influencing cryptocurrency prices, including the characteristics of the blockchain infrastructure, is crucial for driving experts’ decisions. This paper proposes a new visual analytics tool to support domain experts in the explanation of AI-based cryptocurrency trading systems. To describe the rationale behind AI models, it exploits an established method, namely SHapley Additive exPlanations, which allows experts to identify the most discriminating features and provides them with an interactive and easy-to-use graphical interface. The simulations carried out on 21 cryptocurrencies over a 8-year period demonstrate the usability of the proposed tool.
Kingstone Nyakurukwa, Yudhvir Seetharam
Abstract This study revisits stock market integration in Africa using an information‐theoretic framework that quantifies the flow of information between exchanges. We use daily return data for seven MSCI‐classified African stock exchanges between 2011 and 2021. As Bitcoin has become an important asset class on the African continent, we also explore whether this cryptocurrency confers any diversification benefits. Our method holds that stock markets are integrated if there is a significant flow of information between exchanges. The results reveal a statistically insignificant flow of information among African stock exchanges, and for the few cases in which information flow is statistically significant, the magnitudes are low. South Africa is the most influential stock market, as it transmits most of the total transfer entropy (informational value) in the system. We also observe that African stock exchanges are weakly integrated with Bitcoin.
Özkan HAYKIR, İbrahim Yağlı
This study investigates speculative bubbles in the cryptocurrency market and factors affecting bubbles during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that each cryptocurrency covered in the study presented bubbles. Moreover, we found that explosive behavior in one currency leads to explosivity in other cryptocurrencies. During the pandemic, herd behavior was evident among investors; however, this diminishes during bubbles, indicating that bubbles are not explained by herd behavior. Regarding cryptocurrency and market-specific factors, we found that Google Trends and volume are positively associated with predicting speculative bubbles in time-series and panel probit regressions. Hence, investors should exercise caution when investing in cryptocurrencies and follow both crypto currency and market-related factors to estimate bubbles. Alternative liquidity, volatility, and Google Trends measures are used for robustness analysis and yield similar results. Overall, our results suggest that bubble behavior is common in the cryptocurrency market, contradicting the efficient market hypothesis.
Shinji Kakinaka, Ken Umeno
This study investigates the scale-dependent structure of asymmetric volatility effect in six representative cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, and Dash. By developing the dynamical approach of DFA-based fractal regression analysis, we detect whether the volatility of price changes is positively or negatively related to return shocks at different time scales. We find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon varies by scale and cryptocurrency, and the structure is time-varying. Contrary to what is typically observed in equity markets, minor currencies show an “inverse” asymmetric volatility effect at relatively large scales, where positive shocks (good news) have a greater impact on volatility than negative shocks (bad news). The consequences are discussed in the context of who is trading in the market and heterogeneity of the investors.
Dimitrios Koutmos
No abstract is available for this record.
Franklin Allen, Antonio Fatás, Beatrice Weder di Mauro
We investigate whether the market for ICOs in 2017–2018 and 2021 showed signs of contagion from prices of Bitcoin and Ether. During phases of optimism, ICO daily returns display low correlations with those of Bitcoin or Ether. But when the bubble bursts, correlations jump to very high levels, signaling that the ICO market becomes a sideshow of the cryptocurrency dynamics. We demonstrate that this high correlation was not present during the Nasdaq bubble in the 1990s, signaling that the price dynamics of digital tokens seems to be driven by a common factor, much more than in previous bubbles.
Frederick Adjei, Mavis Adjei
In this study, we examine the relationship between changes in cryptocurrency trading volume and contemporaneous cryptocurrency returns. Additionally, we investigate the predictive power of changes in cryptocurrency trading volume for future cryptocurrency returns. We find a direct relationship between change in trading volume and the contemporaneous returns, consistent with Gervars, Kaniel and Mingelgrin for cryptocurrencies tradable on Coinbase exchange. Additionally, we uncover that the changes in trading volume have significant predictive power for future cryptocurrency returns for cryptocurrencies tradable on Coinbase exchange. We, however, do not find a connection between changes in trading volume and returns for cryptocurrencies not tradable on Coinbase exchange. Our findings suggest the presence of a weak-form inefficiency in the cryptocurrency market; cryptocurrency prices do not reflect available information.
Yi Li, Wei Zhang, Andrew Urquhart, Pengfei Wang
No abstract is available for this record.
Rama K. Malladi
Purpose Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a new asset class. This study aims to help accounting and financial modelers compare cryptocurrencies with other asset classes (such as gold, stocks and bond markets) and develop cryptocurrency forecast models. Design/methodology/approach Daily data from 12/31/2013 to 08/01/2020 (including the COVID-19 pandemic period) for the top six cryptocurrencies that constitute 80% of the market are used. Cryptocurrency price, return and volatility are forecasted using five traditional econometric techniques: pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, fixed-effect model (FEM), random-effect model (REM), panel vector error correction model (VECM) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Fama and French's five-factor analysis, a frequently used method to study stock returns, is conducted on cryptocurrency returns in a panel-data setting. Finally, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to a portfolio makes a difference. Findings The seven findings in this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) VECM produces the best out-of-sample price forecast of cryptocurrency prices; (2) cryptocurrencies are unlike cash for accounting purposes as they are very volatile: the standard deviations of daily returns are several times larger than those of the other financial assets; (3) cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold as a safe-haven asset; (4) the five most significant determinants of cryptocurrency daily returns are emerging markets stock index, S&P 500 stock index, return on gold, volatility of daily returns and the volatility index (VIX); (5) their return volatility is persistent and can be forecasted using the GARCH model; (6) in a portfolio setting, cryptocurrencies exhibit negative alpha, high beta, similar to small and growth stocks and (7) a cryptocurrency portfolio offers more portfolio choices for investors and resembles a levered portfolio. Practical implications One of the tasks of the financial econometrics profession is building pro forma models that meet accounting standards and satisfy auditors. This paper undertook such activity by deploying traditional financial econometric methods and applying them to an emerging cryptocurrency asset class. Originality/value This paper attempts to contribute to the existing academic literature in three ways: Pro forma models for price forecasting: five established traditional econometric techniques (as opposed to novel methods) are deployed to forecast prices; Cryptocurrency as a group: instead of analyzing one currency at a time and running the risk of missing out on cross-sectional effects (as done by most other researchers), the top-six cryptocurrencies constitute 80% of the market, are analyzed together as a group using panel-data methods; Cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a portfolio: To understand the linkages between cryptocurrencies and traditional portfolio characteristics, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to an investment portfolio makes a difference.
Olubunmi Adewole Ogunode, A. T. Iwala, O. A. Awoniyi, B. O. Amusa · 7 authors
This paper examined cryptocurrency and its global practices with particular reference to salient lessons for the Nigerian economy. The desk review methodology anchored on content analysis was used for the study. The paper identified distrust in political systems, weak domestic currency and high inflation rates as key factors fueling the growth of cryptocurrency usage in Nigeria thus motivating individuals to resort to cryptocurrencies as a tool for wealth preservation and inflation hedge. The study also found that the existence of trust deficit and challenges associated with privacy concerns, system uptime and stringent onboarding requirements were capable of derailing the success of the newly launched digital currency(‘e-naira’) issued by government to curtail cryptocurrency usage in Nigeria. The study concluded that cryptocurrencies and central bank issued digital currencies (CBDCs) are now part and parcel of the new economic order and represents the future of finance. It therefore recommended that nation states should work assiduously to develop uniformly agreed regulatory framework and global standards for the usage of cryptocurrencies.
Jang Ho Kim
No abstract is available for this record.
Arianna Agosto, Paola Cerchiello, Paolo Pagnottoni
No abstract is available for this record.
Carol Alexander, Jun Deng, Bin Zou
Bitcoin derivatives positions are maintained with a self-selected margin, which is often too low to avoid automatic liquidation by the exchange, without notice, especially during periods of excessive volatility. Indeed, according to CryptoQuant, almost $80 billion of positions on centralised exchanges were liquidated during 2021, that is an average of over $200 million per day. So hedgers of bitcoin price risk should account for the possibility of automatic liquidation when taking positions on bitcoin futures. We derive a semi-closed form for an optimal hedging strategy with dual objectives – to minimize both the variance of the hedged portfolio and the probability of liquidation due to insufficient collateral. The solution depends on the statistical characteristics of the spot and futures extreme returns, and other parameters that characterize the hedger by choice of leverage, loss aversion and collateral management. An empirical analysis based on minute-level data compares the performance of the major direct and inverse bitcoin hedging instruments traded on five major exchanges.