Leopoldo Catania, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzolo
This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Ethereum. We apply a set of crypto–predictors and rely on Dynamic Model Averaging to combine a large set of univariate Dynamic Linear Models and several multivariate Vector Autoregressive models with different forms of time variation. We find statistical significant improvements in point forecasting when using combinations of univariate models and in density forecasting when relying on selection of multivariate models.
Mareena Fernandes, Saloni Khanna, Leandra Monteiro, Anu Thomas · 5 authors
Advancement in technological developments introduced virtual currency exchange methods viz Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and so on which are evolving rapidly. Cryptocurrencies were introduced to eliminate financial intermediaries leading to direct peer-to-peer transactions. With the spread of the global Coronavirus pandemic, the relationship between Bitcoin and the equity market has expanded. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile but can also prove to be good investments. Cryptocurrency, being a novel technique for transaction systems, has led to a lot of confusion among investors and any rumours or news on social media has been claimed to significantly affect the prices of cryptocurrencies. The huge percentage increase/decrease in Bitcoin's price over a short period of time is an intriguing phenomenon that cannot be foreseen. For a long time, bitcoin price prediction has been a hot topic of study.In this paper, we discuss the implementation and results of the Deep Learning Bitcoin Price Prediction Model and prepare a strategy to maximize gains for investors. The paper covers to framework with a set of deep learning models, analysis methods with a fixed set of factors to predict daily Bitcoin prices and design-integration of price prediction of different cryptocurrencies using RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) and GRU (Gated recurrent units). The idea of incorporating Public Sentiment in the prediction of the hikes and falls of the Bitcoin market from Social Media platforms like Reddit and Twitter leading to meaningful predicted results. This prediction can bring confidence to the common man to invest with lesser risk and more profit. Also, this can enable the digital new-age currency to become a primary method of transaction.
In this paper, we aim to provide a power trade system that will promote a sustainable electrical energy transaction ecosystem between prosumers and consumers of smart homes. We suggest a blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) energy transaction platform be implemented to enable efficient electrical energy transaction between prosumers. We suggest the platform be built on the blockchain, as this technology allows a decentralized and distributed trading system, and allows a more transparent, trustworthy and secure P2P trading environment. We believe that such characteristics of the blockchain are necessary in electrical energy transactions within the smart home environment because the smart home aims to enhance user comfort and security, along with energy conservation and cost-savings. First, we classify the two different types of P2P trade to identify which will best benefit from the use of the suggested blockchain-based P2P energy-transaction platform. Within the two types of P2P trade, that we classify (pure P2P trade and hybrid P2P trade), the hybrid P2P trade will benefit more from a blockchain-based P2P energy-transaction platform. In the blockchain-based P2P energy-transaction platform, a smart contract is embedded in the blockchain and called an energy tag. The energy tag will set conditions for making every future energy transaction more cost-efficient while maintaining the most ideal and high-quality energy selection. With the blockchain-based energy tag in the energy-transaction process, multiple energy resources and home appliances will be democratically connected in order to provide users with high-quality, low-cost energy at all times and locations. In this paper, we provide simulation results that compare the unit price of electrical energy on the suggested platform to the unit price of electrical energy set by currently existing conventional power-generation companies. Additionally, we present simulation results that calculate how long initial investments to create a smart home environment that enables P2P energy transactions will take to be paid back. Based on simulation results, we believe that, in the long run, the suggested blockchain-based P2P energy-transaction platform will create a sustainable energy-transaction environment between consumers and prosumers, and the expanding ecosystem will enable the development of a trusted, sustainable, secure and energy-efficient energy transaction environment.
Stjepan Begušić, Zvonko Kostanjčar, H. Eugene Stanley, Boris Podobnik
Detection of power-law behavior and studies of scaling exponents uncover the characteristics of complexity in many real world phenomena. The complexity of financial markets has always presented challenging issues and provided interesting findings, such as the inverse cubic law in the tails of stock price fluctuation distributions. Motivated by the rise of novel digital assets based on blockchain technology, we study the distributions of cryptocurrency price fluctuations. We consider Bitcoin returns over various time intervals and from multiple digital exchanges, in order to investigate the existence of universal scaling behavior in the tails, and ascertain whether the scaling exponent supports the presence of a finite second moment. We provide empirical evidence on slowly decaying tails in the distributions of returns over multiple time intervals and different exchanges, corresponding to a power-law. We estimate the scaling exponent and find an asymptotic power-law behavior with 2 < α < 2.5 suggesting that Bitcoin returns, in addition to being more volatile, also exhibit heavier tails than stocks, which are known to be around 3. Our results also imply the existence of a finite second moment, thus providing a fundamental basis for the usage of standard financial theories and covariance-based techniques in risk management and portfolio optimization scenarios.
The goal of this paper is to ascertain with what accuracy the direction of Bitcoin price in USD can be predicted. The price data is sourced from the Bitcoin Price Index. The task is achieved with varying degrees of success through the implementation of a Bayesian optimised recurrent neural network (RNN) and a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. The LSTM achieves the highest classification accuracy of 52% and a RMSE of 8%. The popular ARIMA model for time series forecasting is implemented as a comparison to the deep learning models. As expected, the non-linear deep learning methods outperform the ARIMA forecast which performs poorly. Finally, both deep learning models are benchmarked on both a GPU and a CPU with the training time on the GPU outperforming the CPU implementation by 67.7%.
A large proportion of the population in the developing world can benefit from blockchain. In this article, the authors discuss key concerns that have been raised regarding institutions in the developing world and evaluate the potential role of blockchain to address them.
Nathaniel Popper leaves in DIGITAL GOLD the following passage. But the week in Austin could not help fueling suspicion that perhaps, as in the old way of doing things, the economic benefits of all the new technology were, at least so far, accruing only a small elite, while the 99 percent that Occupy Wall Street had worried about were left reading about it at home on Twitter. Bitcoin itself faced the same concerns. Years earlier, Bitcoin had promised that it would spread its benefits to all its users, but by 2014 large chunks of Bitcoin economy were owned by a few people who had been wealthy enough before Bitcoin came along to invest in this new system. Most of the new coins being released each day were collected by a few large mining syndicates. If this was the new world, it did not seem all that different from the old one－at least not yet. This is reality of Bitcoin. It does not have stability of supply. It does not have ability of credit creation. It does not have stability of value. It does not have wide agreement as a means of settlements. It exposes itself to speculation. So in conclusion, Bitcoin could not be money at least in the near future.
This report explains the technologies which underpin blockchain digital financial ledgers, how blockchain works, potential applications for blockchain, concerns with it, and potential considerations for Congress.
The surge of savvy advancements in all spaces of human action opens new opportunities for the improvement of business forms. Things that appeared to be inconceivable 15-20 years back, for example, swift online payments, e-banking and virtual cash, have turned into a piece of our regular day to day existence. Rising and creating cryptographic forms of money give us significantly more potential outcomes. One of them is Blockchain advancement, which authorizes clients towards profit related trades without commission charges. We are toward the begin of enterprise resource planning (ERP) computerized change with the presentation of blockchain innovation, best known as a digital ledger (distributed database) behind digital money. The fundamental distinctive component of the innovation is the absence of a single centralized base for data storage. All the data is distributed between interconnected blocks, which are joined into a chain utilizing complicated algorithms. Each block stores its own snippet of data. New blocks can be added to the complete of this chain, yet they can
In an economy with asymmetric information, the smart contract in the blockchain protocol mitigates uncertainty. Since, as a new trading platform, the blockchain triggers segmentation of market and differentiation of agents in both the sell and buy sides of the market, it recomposes the asymmetric information and generates spreads in asset price and quality between itself and a traditional platform. We show that marginal innovation and sophistication of the smart contract have non-monotonic effects on the trading value in the blockchain platform, its fundamental value, the price of cryptocurrency, and consumers' welfare. Moreover, a blockchain manager who controls the level of the innovation of the smart contract has an incentive to keep it lower than the first best when the underlying information asymmetry is not severe, leading to welfare loss for consumers.
The development of quantum information platforms such as quantum computers and quantum simulators that will rival classical Turing computations are typically viewed as a threat to secure data transmissions and therefore to crypto-systems and financial markets in general. We propose to use such platforms as a proof-of-work protocol for blockchain technology, which underlies cryptocurrencies providing a way to document the transactions in a permanent decentralised public record and to be further securely and transparently monitored. We reconsider the basis of blockchain encryption and suggest to move from currently used proof-of-work schemes to the proof-of-work performed by analog Hamiltonian optimisers. This approach has a potential to significantly increase decentralisation of the existing blockchains and to help achieve faster transaction times, therefore, removing the main obstacles for blockchain implementation. We discuss the proof-of-work protocols for a few most promising optimiser platforms: quantum annealing hardware based on D-wave simulators and a new class of gain-dissipative simulators.
Emmanuelle Anceaume, Antonella Del Pozzo, Romaric Ludinard, Maria Potop-Butucaru · 5 authors
The presented work continues the line of recent distributed computing community efforts dedicated to the theoretical aspects of blockchains. This paper is the first to specify blockchains as a composition of abstract data types all together with a hierarchy of consistency criteria that formally characterizes the histories admissible for distributed programs that use them. Our work is based on an original oracle-based construction that, along with new consistency definitions, captures the eventual convergence process in blockchain systems. The paper presents as well some results on implementability of the presented abstractions and a mapping of representative existing blockchains from both academia and industry in our framework.
With the rapid growth of China's economy, people's living standard has been increased continuously, which changed the consuming habit of consumers, and more and more attention is paid to food safety and quality. However, in recent years, a series of serious food safety incidents occurred, such as "Sudan red", "clenbuterol", "Sanlu toxic milk powder" and "trench oi". It is worth noting that not only in China, but even in Europe these kinds of scandals have broken out during the past 20 years, including Escherichia coliin hamburgers, Salmonella in eggs, poultry and pork, Listeria in pates and cheeses, and the "horse meat scandal" in 2013. These food safety problems not only harm people's health, but also undermine their trust in food markets. <br/> The main purpose of this cumulative dissertation is trying to guarantee the food quality and safety from a supply chain management perspective, and the key issue is building a decentralized information system which is not dependent on the trust of a central authority or organization for the whole food supply chain. By using the internet of things and blockchain technologies, this new decentralized information system could become a disruptive innovation which could provide an information platform for all supply chain members (including government departments and third-party regulators) based on openness, transparency, neutrality, reliability and security. We want to establish a food supply chain traceability system for real-time food tracing, build a safety control system for food supply chain by integrating it with general supply chain risk management methods, and significantly improve the performance of the food logistics company. All of these will ultimately enhance the safety assurance of a food supply chain.
In this work, we propose a novel approach, called Conflicts Check Protocol (CCP), which enables preventing potential attacks on bitcoin system. Based on the observation and discovery of a common symptom that many attacks may generate, an arbitration mechanism is proposed to determine the approval or abandon of certain transactions involved in confliction. Experimental results verified our statistical assumption and proved that the CCP is robust in handling many transactions in confliction scenarios and can significantly enhance the security of the current bitcoin systems. Unlike many of the existing efforts, this work examines the security issue of bitcoin from a new perspective, which can be extended further to a much larger scope of attack analysis and prevention.
<p class='IJASEITAbtract'><span lang='EN-GB'>The improvement of the Quality of Life (QoL) and the enhancement of the Quality of Services (QoS) represent the main goal of every city evolutionary process. It is possible making cities smarter promoting innovative solutions by use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for collecting and analysing large amounts of data generated by several sources, such as sensor networks, wearable devices, and IoT devices spread among the city. The integration of different technologies and different IT systems, needed to build smart city applications and services, remains the most challenge to overcome. In the Smart City context, this paper intends to investigate the Smart Environment pillar, and in particular the aspect related to the implementation of Smart Energy Grid for citizens in the urban context. The innovative characteristic of the proposed solution consists of using the Blockchain technology to join the Grid, exchanging information, and buy/sell energy between the involved nodes (energy providers and private citizens), using the Blockchain granting ledger.</span>
Using blockchain technology, it is possible to create contracts that offer a reward in exchange for a trained machine learning model for a particular data set. This would allow users to train machine learning models for a reward in a trustless manner. The smart contract will use the blockchain to automatically validate the solution, so there would be no debate about whether the solution was correct or not. Users who submit the solutions won't have counterparty risk that they won't get paid for their work. Contracts can be created easily by anyone with a dataset, even programmatically by software agents. This creates a market where parties who are good at solving machine learning problems can directly monetize their skillset, and where any organization or software agent that has a problem to solve with AI can solicit solutions from all over the world. This will incentivize the creation of better machine learning models, and make AI more accessible to companies and software agents.
Bitcoin cryptocurrency has risen in popularity. Therefore, it not only attracts users to use it, but also it attracts the malware developers to attack it. While online Bitcoin wallets allow users to conveniently store and manage their bitcoins, they are vulnerable to several attacks.
Blockchain-based distributed computing platforms enable the trusted execution\nof computation - defined in the form of smart contracts - without trusted\nagents. Smart contracts are envisioned to have a variety of applications,\nranging from financial to IoT asset tracking. Unfortunately, the development of\nsmart contracts has proven to be extremely error prone. In practice, contracts\nare riddled with security vulnerabilities comprising a critical issue since\nbugs are by design non-fixable and contracts may handle financial assets of\nsignificant value. To facilitate the development of secure smart contracts, we\nhave created the FSolidM framework, which allows developers to define contracts\nas finite state machines (FSMs) with rigorous and clear semantics. FSolidM\nprovides an easy-to-use graphical editor for specifying FSMs, a code generator\nfor creating Ethereum smart contracts, and a set of plugins that developers may\nadd to their FSMs to enhance security and functionality.\n
Natali del Rocío Torres Peñafiel, Rosa Ellis Bell Heredia
La provincia de Chimborazo se caracteriza por su riqueza etnica intercultural, en especial por su cultura indigena que resalta aquellos principios y valores que datan de la nacionalidad Puruha y que tanto se lucha por rescatar. En este articulo se desarrolla un procedimiento denominado FOCOA para fomentar una cultura organizacional autoctona en aras de una mejor gestion en los gobiernosautonomos descentralizados (GAD) municipales de la provincia de Chimborazo; procedimiento que considera la interculturalidad como eje transversal. Su metodologia se sustenta en los metodos historico-logico y sistemico, asi como en los procedimientos de analisis y sintesis, descriptivo, induccion y deduccion; y, ademas, se implementan tecnicas de investigacion cuantitativas y cualitativas. / Chimborazo province is characterized by its intercultural ethnic richness, especially by its native culture that stresses those principles and values dated from the Puruha nationality, which they so strongly fight for rescuing. In this article, a procedure named FOCOA for promoting an autochthonous organizational culture is developed, in order to achieve a better management in the municipal decentralized autonomous governments (GAD) in Chimborazo province. This procedureconsiders the intercultural character as a cross axis. Its methodology is based on historical, logical and systemic methods, as well as in the procedures of analysis and synthesis, of induction and deduction and in descriptive procedures. Techniques of quantitative and qualitative research are also carried out.
Uang merupakan alat tukar menukar yang sangat mudah dibawa kemana–mana dan tahan awet. Uang diciptakan untuk mempermudah masyarakat atau manusia dalam jual beli dimanapun berada dan kapanpun berada, karena itu kita harus mempergunakan uang dengan sebaik-baiknya. Pada tanggal 2 November 1949 merupakan hari ditetapkan uang menjadi mata uang resmi negara Indonesia yang diatur dalam Undang-Undang No 7 Tahun 2011 Tentang Mata Uang. Seiring berkembangnya jaman mata uangpun berkembang dan saat ini yang muncul adalah mata uang virtual (Bitcoin), pengertian bitcoin adalah sebuah mata uang virtual yang pertama kali dikembangkan pada tahun 2009, oleh Satoshi Nakatomo, (nama samaran), Pada tahun 2017 Pemerintah Indonesia berencana untuk melegalkan mata uang virtual didalam kegiatan transaksi di pasar modal untuk mengikuti perkembangan jaman dan meningkatkan ekonomi di Indonesia menurut Undang-Undang No 8 Tahun 1995 Tentang Pasar Modal adalah kegiatan yang bersangkutan dengan Penawaran Umum dan perdagangan Efek, Perusahaan Publik yang berkaitan dengan Efek yang diterbitkannya, serta lembaga dan profesi yang berkaitan dengan Efek, dalam hal ini identfikasi masalah dari pernyataan diatas adalah bagaimanakan legalitas mata uang virtual (bitcoin) dalam transaksi pasar modal menurut hukum di Indonesia dan bagaimanakah penggunaan mata uang virtual (bitcoin) dalam pasar modal dikaitkan dengan Undang-Undang Nomor 8 Tahun 1995 Tentang Pasar Modal. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa Penerapan pengaturan mengenai legalitas untuk menggunakan Bitcoin sebagai mata uang di Indonesia sangatlah sulit karena dalam Undang Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2011 Tentang Mata Uang sudah sangat jelas bahwa mata uang yang sah d Indonesia adalah rupiah, terlebih BI menyatakan larangan tentang penggunaan Mata Uang Bitcoin dan Bitcoin juga bukan merupakan mata uang atau alat pembayaran yang sah di Indonesia. Penggunaan mata uang Bitcoin di pasar modal akan sangat terkendala karena PT Bitcoin Indonesia harus menyerahkan semua kewenangan dan pengaturan mata uang Bitcoin kepada Otoritas Jasa Keuangan sebagai lembaga pengawas pasar modal dan PT Bitcoin Indonesia juga harus menjadi Bank Kustodian karena Bank Kustodian adalah lembaga penyimpanan dan penyelesaian, perusahaan efek, atau bank umum yang telah mendapat persetujuan Bapepam.
The article outlines the logical legal and regulatory sequence of building a highly civilized, highly developed and democratic Ukrainian state that will maximally facilitate the implementation of natural inviolable freedoms, rights, security and supreme power of a Ukrainian citizen and his social duties, rights and responsibilities in the family, community , nation and state. After all, Ukraine is shocked by populist speeches of immoral and illiterate government officials of different levels, their pseudoreforms, pseudo-decentralization and other chaotic actions lead the state to collapse, and people are lowering them to even greater poverty. The people are completely deprived of their property and state control. Prosecutors, judges, police, the SBU and other governing bodies of the state are not controlled by the people. The state's control went into the hands of criminal-oligarchic clans, which loose it uncontrollably and cynically. It should be noted that the management of a civilized state is the most complicated process in the world, which is tens of thousands of times more complex than the most complex computer and space technologies. Therefore, the management of the state categorically can not allow people with immoral reputation and without deep theoretical knowledge and practical skills in management science, micro-and macroeconomics, finance and freedoms and human rights. To build a Ukrainian state that will serve exclusively a man of honest work, he will constantly increase the welfare of his life and the power of the state and make it impossible for anyone to parasitize, and in any way, for another's account, one should link in one harmonious and dynamic whole such state-building mechanisms: socially-economic justice; the selection and appointment by the people of government personnel at all levels and control over their work; development of industrial production, entrepreneurship, agro-industrial complex and farming; wholesale and retail trade; communications and engineering; efficient use of all natural resources, recycled materials and private and public property; social infrastructure of settlements; foreign economic activity and investments; development of science and innovation; prophylactic, diagnostic and medical care of the population; the protection of freedoms, rights, security, the supreme power of man and the clear and unconditional compliance of all citizens and officials with the laws in force; internal and external security of citizens, communities of settlements and the state; operational and statistical control over the implementation of strategic and current programs for the development of settlements and the state, their diagnosis and improvement of management, systematic and comprehensive explanatory and educational work in Ukraine and abroad, as well as the formation of a highly civilized worldview of Ukrainians and their unification into a single monolithic highly professional and active National Community and state-building force.
In recent years, a number of lightweight programs have been deployed in critical domains, such as in smart contracts based on blockchain technology. Therefore, the security and reliability of such programs should be guaranteed by the most credible technology. Higher-order logic theorem proving is one of the most reliable technologies for verifying the properties of programs. However, programs may be developed by different high-level programming languages, and a general, extensible, and reusable formal memory (GERM) framework that can simultaneously support different formal verification specifications, particularly at the code level, is presently unavailable for verifying the properties of programs. Therefore, the present work proposes a GERM framework to fill this gap. The framework simulates physical memory hardware structure, including a low-level formal memory space, and provides a set of simple, nonintrusive application programming interfaces and assistant tools using Coq that can support different formal verification specifications simultaneously. The proposed GERM framework is independent and customizable, and was verified entirely in Coq. We also present an extension of Curry-Howard isomorphism, denoted as execution-verification isomorphism (EVI), which combines symbolic execution and theorem proving for increasing the degree of automation in higher-order logic theorem proving assistant tools. We also implement a toy functional programming language in a generalized algebraic datatypes style and a formal interpreter in Coq based on the GERM framework. These implementations are then employed to demonstrate the application of EVI to a simple code segment.
Jayakrishnan Unnikrishnan, Saeid Haghighatshoar, Martin Vetterli
We study the problem of solving a linear sensing system when the observations are unlabeled. Specifically we seek a solution to a linear system of equations y = Ax when the order of the observations in the vector y is unknown. Focusing on the setting in which A is a random matrix with i.i.d. entries, we show that if the sensing matrix A admits an oversampling ratio of 2 or higher, then, with probability 1, it is possible to recover x exactly without the knowledge of the order of the observations in y. Furthermore, if x is of dimension K, then any 2K entries of y are sufficient to recover x. This result implies the existence of deterministic unlabeled sensing matrices with an oversampling factor of 2 that admit perfect reconstruction. The result is universal in that conditioned on the realization of matrix A, recovery is guaranteed for all possible choices of x. While the proof is constructive, it uses a combinatorial algorithm which is not practical, leaving the question of complexity open. We also analyze a noisy version of the problem and show that local stability is guaranteed by the solution. In particular, for every x, the recovery error tends to zero as the signal-to-noise ratio tends to infinity. The question of universal stability is unclear. In addition, we obtain a converse of the result in the noiseless case: If the number of observations in y is less than 2K, then with probability 1, universal recovery fails, i.e., with probability 1, there exist distinct choices of x which lead to the same unordered list of observations in y. We also present extensions of the result of the noiseless case to special cases with non-i.i.d. entries in A, and to a different setting in which the labels of a portion of the observations y are known. In terms of applications, the unlabeled sensing problem is related to data association problems encountered in different domains including robotics where it is appears in a method called “simultaneous localization and mapping”, multi-target tracking applications, and in sampling signals in the presence of jitter.
Open access
Sparse and Compressive Sensing Techniques
Distributed Sensor Networks and Detection Algorithms