The Triadic Stress Index (TSI) takes a network index whose four factors were first observed in soil microbiome co-occurrence networks and applies it, without alteration, to the correlation network of financial assets. We test it on five markets spanning 2006-2026 (equities including banking crises and the AI sector, cryptocurrencies, commodities, foreign exchange and sovereign debt), against three independent definitions of a crisis episode, at a fixed alarm budget, out of sample, with block-bootstrap intervals and a Holm correction across the family of tests. The benchmarks are the Absorption Ratio, the industry standard used by MSCI and central banks; the effective rank and the Vendi score, the sharpest spectral measures available; Ollivier-Ricci curvature; and the global and local balance indices of signed correlation networks. Three comparisons favour the index. It carries a per-node decomposition, diag(A^3), naming which asset is carrying the concentration with no parameter to select, and scores 0.97-0.99 against 0.33-0.84 for the only published per-node alternative, whereas spectral attribution must first choose how many components to read and collapses under a standard but wrong choice. Its alarms are the cleanest of anything tested, 4.0% of them with no matching episode against 14.7% for the effective rank and roughly 59% for the Absorption Ratio. And it beats the Absorption Ratio on detection by 0.273 in F1 out of sample, p<0.0005. The remaining comparisons are ties. Against the effective rank and the Vendi score the index ties in every scheme and both samples, and the margin over the Absorption Ratio narrows under the strictest labelling. On real matrices the far simpler node degree reproduces the attribution. A lead-lag analysis puts the peak cross-correlation at zero lag: this is a coincident state index, not a forecast.
This study investigates whether the macroscopic statistical maturity of cryptocurrencies implies dynamical equivalence with traditional equity markets. We analyze high-frequency data (2020--2025) using the Complexity--Entropy Causality Plane (CECP) and directed horizontal visibility graphs (directed HVG) to uncover complex temporal patterns and time-directed structures in the return series. While conventional stylized facts show striking convergence across all assets, structural diagnostics reveal a compelling paradox: cryptocurrencies appear more locally random than the equity benchmark during ordinary periods, yet exhibit significantly stronger directional time-irreversibility around high-visibility return events. The absolute-return results show that large cryptocurrency fluctuations tend to begin abruptly and remain elevated afterward. Separate analyses of positive returns and negative-return magnitudes show that this pattern is shared across cryptocurrencies on the upside but varies across assets on the downside. We conclude that statistical maturity is only skin-deep; the underlying dynamical processes of mature cryptocurrencies remain fundamentally distinct from traditional benchmarks.
Stablecoins have rapidly emerged as an important class of digital assets and a component of the digital financial ecosystem. Despite their growing importance, the statistical properties of stablecoin transaction activity remain largely unexplored. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate scaling behavior in stablecoin transaction data, focusing on USDT and USDC. We analyze approximately 370 million USDT and USDC transactions recorded on the Ethereum blockchain across six periods spanning June 2024 to February 2026. Based on interactions between Externally Owned Accounts (EOAs) and Smart Contracts (SCs), we classify transactions into four categories: EOA-EOA, EOA-SC, SC-EOA, and SC-SC. Using maximum-likelihood estimation of power-law exponents, we find that transaction value distributions exhibit heavy-tailed scaling for both stablecoins across all periods and interaction categories. We identify two distinct scaling regimes: EOA-involved categories cluster around 1.45-1.60, whereas SC-SC transactions exhibit higher exponents of approximately 1.72-1.73. Sensitivity analysis confirms that this separation is robust across periods, stablecoins, and fitting sample sizes. Counterfactual analysis shows that changes in category weights alone cannot explain the observed variation in the overall exponent. Across different sample sizes, the counterfactual path accounts for only about 10%-35% of the total temporal range observed in the actual data. Overall, our results indicate two broadly differentiated scaling regimes in the tail of stablecoin transaction values. Power-law tail behavior is observed throughout stablecoin transaction activity, but the exponent depends on whether transactions are driven by EOAs or SCs. These findings provide a basis for further research on scaling behavior and transaction heterogeneity in blockchain-based financial systems.