Gabriela Mariutac, Claudiu Brândaș, Otniel Didraga, Mihai Plesa
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) has faced sustained legitimacy stress since 2023, when peer-reviewed work found that fewer than one in six issued credits represented a real emission reduction. In parallel, tokenisation through Web3 protocols, decentralised autonomous organisations (DAOs), and regenerative finance (ReFi) infrastructures introduced new participants interacting with incumbent registries without a shared coordination framework. Existing scholarship examines commons governance, complex system governance (CSG), and tokenised carbon markets largely in isolation; the gap addressed here is the absence of an integrated system-of-systems (SoS) governance treatment of the tokenised VCM. This study develops and empirically applies a polycentric SoS governance framework for the tokenised VCM, structured around four research questions and five foundational contributions. We treat the tokenised VCM as an SoS that is polycentric in configuration but not by design, and develop a system-of-systems engineering (SoSE) governance reading of it. We reformulate Ostrom’s eight design principles as SoS governance criteria for digital–physical hybrid commons, map each to CSG metasystem functions, and apply the framework to four cases: KlimaDAO, Toucan Protocol, Regen Network, and the post-2023 Verra reforms. Qualitative coding is complemented by on-chain and Base Carbon Tonne spot-price evidence from October 2021 to December 2025. Disclosure by an analytical intermediary acted on the SoS roughly seven weeks before formal regulatory action and was associated with about 90% of the observed bridging slowdown, interpreted descriptively rather than causally. We derive an eight-item reform agenda, six DAO–registry interface specifications, and a five-level governance maturity rubric.