Predicting cryptocurrency returns is notoriously difficult: price movements are driven by a fast-shifting blend of on-chain activity, news flow, and social sentiment, while labeled training data are scarce and expensive. In this paper, we present Meta-RL-Crypto, a unified transformer-based architecture that unifies meta-learning and reinforcement learning (RL) to create a fully self-improving trading agent. Starting from a vanilla instruction-tuned LLM, the agent iteratively alternates between three roles-actor, judge, and meta-judge-in a closed-loop architecture. This learning process requires no additional human supervision. It can leverage multimodal market inputs and internal preference feedback. The agent in the system continuously refines both the trading policy and evaluation criteria. Experiments across diverse market regimes demonstrate that Meta-RL-Crypto shows good performance on the technical indicators of the real market and outperforming other LLM-based baselines.
This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model for forecasting the price of Bitcoin, as the digital currency is known to exhibit frequent fluctuations. The models used are the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. First, VMD is used to decompose the original Bitcoin price series into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Each IMF is then modeled using an LSTM network to capture temporal patterns more effectively. The individual forecasts from the IMFs are aggregated to produce the final prediction of the original Bitcoin Price Series. To determine the prediction power of the proposed hybrid model, a comparative analysis was conducted against the standard LSTM. The results confirmed that the hybrid VMD+LSTM model outperforms the standard LSTM across all the evaluation metrics, including RMSE, MAE and R2 and also provides a reliable 30-day forecast.
Gyuyeon Na, Minjung Park, Hyeonjeong Cha, Soyoun Kim · 9 authors
Blockchain transaction networks are complex, with evolving temporal patterns and inter-node relationships. To detect illicit activities, we propose a hybrid GCN-GRU model that captures both structural and sequential features. Using real Bitcoin transaction data (2020-2024), our model achieved 0.9470 Accuracy and 0.9807 AUC-ROC, outperforming all baselines.
Arash Peik, Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki, Amin Milani Fard, Mehdi Agha Sarram
Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of the market's non-stationary nature and extreme volatility. This paper introduces an adaptive TFT modeling approach leveraging dynamic subseries lengths and pattern-based categorization to enhance short-term forecasting. We propose a novel segmentation method where subseries end at relative maxima, identified when the price increase from the preceding minimum surpasses a threshold, thus capturing significant upward movements, which act as key markers for the end of a growth phase, while potentially filtering the noise. Crucially, the fixed-length pattern ending each subseries determines the category assigned to the subsequent variable-length subseries, grouping typical market responses that follow similar preceding conditions. A distinct TFT model trained for each category is specialized in predicting the evolution of these subsequent subseries based on their initial steps after the preceding peak. Experimental results on ETH-USDT 10-minute data over a two-month test period demonstrate that our adaptive approach significantly outperforms baseline fixed-length TFT and LSTM models in prediction accuracy and simulated trading profitability. Our combination of adaptive segmentation and pattern-conditioned forecasting enables more robust and responsive cryptocurrency price prediction.
We introduce a novel rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model featuring a variance-driven exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) time-dependent Hurst parameter $H_t$, fundamentally distinct from recent machine learning and wavelet-based approaches in the literature. Our framework pioneers a unified rough differential equation (RDE) formulation grounded in rough path theory, where the Hurst parameter dynamically adapts to evolving volatility regimes through a continuous EWMA mechanism tied to instantaneous variance. Unlike discrete model-switching or computationally intensive forecasting methods, our approach provides mathematical tractability while capturing volatility clustering and roughness bursts. We rigorously establish existence and uniqueness of solutions via rough path theory and derive martingale properties. Empirical validation on diverse asset classes including equities, cryptocurrencies, and commodities demonstrates superior performance in capturing dynamics and out-of-sample pricing accuracy. Our results show significant improvements over traditional constant-Hurst models.
Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making processes across diverse fields including meteorology, traffic, electricity, economics, finance, and so on. Especially, predicting returns on financial instruments is a challenging problem. Some researchers have proposed time series foundation models applicable to various forecasting tasks. Simultaneously, based on the recognition that real-world time series exhibit chaotic properties, methods have been developed to artificially generate synthetic chaotic time series, construct diverse datasets and train models. In this study, we propose a methodology for modeling financial time series by generating artificial chaotic time series and applying resampling techniques to simulate financial time series data, which we then use as training samples. Increasing the resampling interval to extend predictive horizons, we conducted large-scale pre-training using 10 billion training samples for each case. We subsequently created test datasets for multiple timeframes using actual Bitcoin trade data and performed zero-shot prediction without re-training the pre-trained model. The results of evaluating the profitability of a simple trading strategy based on these predictions demonstrated significant performance improvements over autocorrelation models. During the large-scale pre-training process, we observed a scaling law-like phenomenon that we can achieve predictive performance at a certain level with extended predictive horizons for chaotic time series by increasing the number of training samples exponentially. If this scaling law proves robust and holds true across various chaotic models, it suggests the potential to predict near-future events by investing substantial computational resources. Future research should focus on further large-scale training and verifying the applicability of this scaling law to diverse chaotic models.
Current Ethereum fraud detection methods rely on context-independent, numerical transaction sequences, failing to capture semantic of account transactions. Furthermore, the pervasive homogeneity in Ethereum transaction records renders it challenging to learn discriminative account embeddings. Moreover, current self-supervised graph learning methods primarily learn node representations through graph reconstruction, resulting in suboptimal performance for node-level tasks like fraud account detection, while these methods also encounter scalability challenges. To tackle these challenges, we propose LMAE4Eth, a multi-view learning framework that fuses transaction semantics, masked graph embedding, and expert knowledge. We first propose a transaction-token contrastive language model (TxCLM) that transforms context-independent numerical transaction records into logically cohesive linguistic representations. To clearly characterize the semantic differences between accounts, we also use a token-aware contrastive learning pre-training objective together with the masked transaction model pre-training objective, learns high-expressive account representations. We then propose a masked account graph autoencoder (MAGAE) using generative self-supervised learning, which achieves superior node-level account detection by focusing on reconstructing account node features. To enable MAGAE to scale for large-scale training, we propose to integrate layer-neighbor sampling into the graph, which reduces the number of sampled vertices by several times without compromising training quality. Finally, using a cross-attention fusion network, we unify the embeddings of TxCLM and MAGAE to leverage the benefits of both. We evaluate our method against 21 baseline approaches on three datasets. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the best baseline by over 10% in F1-score on two of the datasets.
Minjung Park, Gyuyeon Na, Soyoun Kim, Sunyoung Moon · 6 authors
Abnormal cryptocurrency transactions - such as mixing services, fraudulent transfers, and pump-and-dump operations -- pose escalating risks to financial integrity but remain notoriously difficult to detect due to class imbalance, temporal volatility, and complex network dependencies. Existing approaches are predominantly model-centric and post hoc, flagging anomalies only after they occur and thus offering limited preventive value. This paper introduces HyPV-LEAD (Hyperbolic Peak-Valley Lead-time Enabled Anomaly Detection), a data-driven early-warning framework that explicitly incorporates lead time into anomaly detection. Unlike prior methods, HyPV-LEAD integrates three innovations: (1) window-horizon modeling to guarantee actionable lead-time alerts, (2) Peak-Valley (PV) sampling to mitigate class imbalance while preserving temporal continuity, and (3) hyperbolic embedding to capture the hierarchical and scale-free properties of blockchain transaction networks. Empirical evaluation on large-scale Bitcoin transaction data demonstrates that HyPV-LEAD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a PR-AUC of 0.9624 with significant gains in precision and recall. Ablation studies further confirm that each component - PV sampling, hyperbolic embedding, and structural-temporal modeling - provides complementary benefits, with the full framework delivering the highest performance. By shifting anomaly detection from reactive classification to proactive early-warning, HyPV-LEAD establishes a robust foundation for real-time risk management, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and financial security in dynamic blockchain environments.
This paper presents a machine learning framework for the early detection of rug pull scams on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) within The Open Network (TON) blockchain. TON's unique architecture, characterized by asynchronous execution and a massive web2 user base from Telegram, presents a novel and critical environment for fraud analysis. We conduct a comprehensive study on the two largest TON DEXs, Ston.Fi and DeDust, fusing data from both platforms to train our models. A key contribution is the implementation and comparative analysis of two distinct rug pull definitions--TVL-based (a catastrophic liquidity withdrawal) and idle-based (a sudden cessation of all trading activity)--within a single, unified study. We demonstrate that Gradient Boosting models can effectively identify rug pulls within the first five minutes of trading, with the TVL-based method achieving superior AUC (up to 0.891) while the idle-based method excels at recall. Our analysis reveals that while feature sets are consistent across exchanges, their underlying distributions differ significantly, challenging straightforward data fusion and highlighting the need for robust, platform-aware models. This work provides a crucial early-warning mechanism for investors and enhances the security infrastructure of the rapidly growing TON DeFi ecosystem.
Yang Li, Hanjie Wang, Yuanzheng Li, Jiazheng Li · 5 authors
Wind power data often suffers from missing values due to sensor faults and unstable transmission at edge sites. While federated learning enables privacy-preserving collaboration without sharing raw data, it remains vulnerable to anomalous updates and privacy leakage during parameter exchange. These challenges are amplified in open industrial environments, necessitating zero-trust mechanisms where no participant is inherently trusted. To address these challenges, this work proposes ZTFed-MAS2S, a zero-trust federated learning framework that integrates a multi-head attention-based sequence-to-sequence imputation model. ZTFed integrates verifiable differential privacy with non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs and a confidentiality and integrity verification mechanism to ensure verifiable privacy preservation and secure model parameters transmission. A dynamic trust-aware aggregation mechanism is employed, where trust is propagated over similarity graphs to enhance robustness, and communication overhead is reduced via sparsity- and quantization-based compression. MAS2S captures long-term dependencies in wind power data for accurate imputation. Extensive experiments on real-world wind farm datasets validate the superiority of ZTFed-MAS2S in both federated learning performance and missing data imputation, demonstrating its effectiveness as a secure and efficient solution for practical applications in the energy sector.
Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by ex-treme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for capturing the full spectrum of potential volatility outcomes, underscoring the importance of probabilistic approaches. To address this limitation, this paper introduces probabilistic fore-casting methods that leverage point forecasts from a wide range of base models, including statistical (HAR, GARCH, ARFIMA) and machine learning (e.g. LASSO, SVR, MLP, Random Forest, LSTM) algorithms, to estimate conditional quantiles of cryp-tocurrency realized variance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the literature to propose and systematically evaluate probabilistic forecasts of variance in cryptocurrency markets based on predictions derived from multiple base models. Our empirical results for Bitcoin demonstrate that the Quantile Estimation through Residual Simulation (QRS) method, partic-ularly when applied to linear base models operating on log-transformed realized volatility data, consistently outperforms more sophisticated alternatives. Additionally, we highlight the robustness of the probabilistic stacking framework, providing comprehensive insights into uncertainty and risk inherent in cryptocurrency volatility forecasting. This research fills a sig-nificant gap in the literature, contributing practical probabilistic forecasting methodologies tailored specifically to cryptocurrency markets.
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become a significant digital asset class, each uniquely representing virtual entities such as artworks. These tokens are stored in collections within smart contracts and are actively traded across platforms on Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana blockchains. The value of NFTs is closely tied to their distinctive characteristics that define rarity, leading to a growing interest in quantifying rarity within both industry and academia. While there are existing rarity meters for assessing NFT rarity, comparing them can be challenging without direct access to the underlying collection data. The Rating over all Rarities (ROAR) benchmark addresses this challenge by providing a standardized framework for evaluating NFT rarity. This paper explores a dimension reduction approach to rarity design, introducing new performance measures and meters, and evaluates them using the ROAR benchmark. Our contributions to the rarity meter design issue include developing an optimal rarity meter design using non-metric weighted multidimensional scaling, introducing Dissimilarity in Trades (DIT) as a performance measure inspired by dimension reduction techniques, and unveiling the non-interpretable rarity meter DIT, which demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.
We introduce RegimeNAS, a novel differentiable architecture search framework specifically designed to enhance cryptocurrency trading performance by explicitly integrating market regime awareness. Addressing the limitations of static deep learning models in highly dynamic financial environments, RegimeNAS features three core innovations: (1) a theoretically grounded Bayesian search space optimizing architectures with provable convergence properties; (2) specialized, dynamically activated neural modules (Volatility, Trend, and Range blocks) tailored for distinct market conditions; and (3) a multi-objective loss function incorporating market-specific penalties (e.g., volatility matching, transition smoothness) alongside mathematically enforced Lipschitz stability constraints. Regime identification leverages multi-head attention across multiple timeframes for improved accuracy and uncertainty estimation. Rigorous empirical evaluation on extensive real-world cryptocurrency data demonstrates that RegimeNAS significantly outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, achieving an 80.3% Mean Absolute Error reduction compared to the best traditional recurrent baseline and converging substantially faster (9 vs. 50+ epochs). Ablation studies and regime-specific analysis confirm the critical contribution of each component, particularly the regime-aware adaptation mechanism. This work underscores the imperative of embedding domain-specific knowledge, such as market regimes, directly within the NAS process to develop robust and adaptive models for challenging financial applications.
Aydin Abadi, Basil Aldali, Benito Vincent, Elliot A. J. Hurley · 13 authors
Weather forecasting plays a vital role in disaster preparedness, agriculture, and resource management, yet current centralized forecasting systems are increasingly strained by security vulnerabilities, limited scalability, and susceptibility to single points of failure. To address these challenges, we propose a decentralized weather forecasting framework that integrates Federated Learning (FL) with blockchain technology. FL enables collaborative model training without exposing sensitive local data; this approach enhances privacy and reduces data transfer overhead. Meanwhile, the Ethereum blockchain ensures transparent and dependable verification of model updates. To further enhance the system's security, we introduce a reputation-based voting mechanism that assesses the trustworthiness of submitted models while utilizing the Interplanetary File System (IPFS) for efficient off-chain storage. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach not only improves forecasting accuracy but also enhances system resilience and scalability, making it a viable candidate for deployment in real-world, security-critical environments.
Luigi D'Amico, Daniel De Rosso, Ninad Dixit, Raul Salles de Padua · 9 authors
In the rapidly evolving domain of financial technology, the detection of illicit transactions within blockchain networks remains a critical challenge, necessitating robust and innovative solutions. This work proposes a novel approach by combining Quantum Inspired Graph Neural Networks (QI-GNN) with flexibility of choice of an Ensemble Model using QBoost or a classic model such as Random Forrest Classifier. This system is tailored specifically for blockchain network analysis in anti-money laundering (AML) efforts. Our methodology to design this system incorporates a novel component, a Canonical Polyadic (CP) decomposition layer within the graph neural network framework, enhancing its capability to process and analyze complex data structures efficiently. Our technical approach has undergone rigorous evaluation against classical machine learning implementations, achieving an F2 score of 74.8% in detecting fraudulent transactions. These results highlight the potential of quantum-inspired techniques, supplemented by the structural advancements of the CP layer, to not only match but potentially exceed traditional methods in complex network analysis for financial security. The findings advocate for a broader adoption and further exploration of quantum-inspired algorithms within the financial sector to effectively combat fraud.
Dan Ivanov, Tristan Freiberg, Shahabi, Shirin, Jonathan Gold · 5 authors
DSperse is a modular framework for distributed machine learning inference with strategic cryptographic verification. Operating within the emerging paradigm of distributed zero-knowledge machine learning, DSperse avoids the high cost and rigidity of full-model circuitization by enabling targeted verification of strategically chosen subcomputations. These verifiable segments, or "slices", may cover part or all of the inference pipeline, with global consistency enforced through audit, replication, or economic incentives. This architecture supports a pragmatic form of trust minimization, localizing zero-knowledge proofs to the components where they provide the greatest value. We evaluate DSperse using multiple proving systems and report empirical results on memory usage, runtime, and circuit behavior under sliced and unsliced configurations. By allowing proof boundaries to align flexibly with the model's logical structure, DSperse supports scalable, targeted verification strategies suited to diverse deployment needs.
Open access
2 source records
Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) and Hardware Security
Blockchain-enabled federated learning (BCFL) addresses fundamental challenges of trust, privacy, and coordination in collaborative AI systems. This chapter provides comprehensive architectural analysis of BCFL systems through a systematic four-dimensional taxonomy examining coordination structures, consensus mechanisms, storage architectures, and trust models. We analyze design patterns from blockchain-verified centralized coordination to fully decentralized peer-to-peer networks, evaluating trade-offs in scalability, security, and performance. Through detailed examination of consensus mechanisms designed for federated learning contexts, including Proof of Quality and Proof of Federated Learning, we demonstrate how computational work can be repurposed from arbitrary cryptographic puzzles to productive machine learning tasks. The chapter addresses critical storage challenges by examining multi-tier architectures that balance blockchain's transaction constraints with neural networks' large parameter requirements while maintaining cryptographic integrity. A technical case study of the TrustMesh framework illustrates practical implementation considerations in BCFL systems through distributed image classification training, demonstrating effective collaborative learning across IoT devices with highly non-IID data distributions while maintaining complete transparency and fault tolerance. Analysis of real-world deployments across healthcare consortiums, financial services, and IoT security applications validates the practical viability of BCFL systems, achieving performance comparable to centralized approaches while providing enhanced security guarantees and enabling new models of trustless collaborative intelligence.
Mansi Sharma, Enrico Sartor, Marc Cavazza, Helmut Prendinger
Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Naïve methods.
Caio de Souza Barbosa Costa, Anna Helena Reali Costa
Recently, reinforcement learning has achieved remarkable results in various domains, including robotics, games, natural language processing, and finance. In the financial domain, this approach has been applied to tasks such as portfolio optimization, where an agent continuously adjusts the allocation of assets within a financial portfolio to maximize profit. Numerous studies have introduced new simulation environments, neural network architectures, and training algorithms for this purpose. Among these, a domain-specific policy gradient algorithm has gained significant attention in the research community for being lightweight, fast, and for outperforming other approaches. However, recent studies have shown that this algorithm can yield inconsistent results and underperform, especially when the portfolio does not consist of cryptocurrencies. One possible explanation for this issue is that the commonly used state normalization method may cause the agent to lose critical information about the true value of the assets being traded. This paper explores this hypothesis by evaluating two of the most widely used normalization methods across three different markets (IBOVESPA, NYSE, and cryptocurrencies) and comparing them with the standard practice of normalizing data before training. The results indicate that, in this specific domain, the state normalization can indeed degrade the agent's performance.
Time series forecasting plays a vital role across scientific, industrial, and environmental domains, especially when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear systems. While Transformer-based models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-range forecasting, they often suffer from interpretability issues and instability in the presence of noise or dynamical uncertainty. In this work, we propose DeepKoopFormer, a principled forecasting framework that combines the representational power of Transformers with the theoretical rigor of Koopman operator theory. Our model features a modular encoder-propagator-decoder structure, where temporal dynamics are learned via a spectrally constrained, linear Koopman operator in a latent space. We impose structural guarantees-such as bounded spectral radius, Lyapunov based energy regularization, and orthogonal parameterization to ensure stability and interpretability. Comprehensive evaluations are conducted on both synthetic dynamical systems, real-world climate dataset (wind speed and surface pressure), financial time series (cryptocurrency), and electricity generation dataset using the Python package that is prepared for this purpose. Across all experiments, DeepKoopFormer consistently outperforms standard LSTM and baseline Transformer models in terms of accuracy, robustness to noise, and long-term forecasting stability. These results establish DeepKoopFormer as a flexible, interpretable, and robust framework for forecasting in high dimensional and dynamical settings.
Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.
The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources in day-ahead energy markets introduces challenges in balancing supply and demand, ensuring grid resilience, and maintaining trust in decentralized trading systems. This paper proposes a novel framework that integrates the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm, a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning method, with blockchain technology to optimize automated trading strategies for prosumers in day-ahead energy markets. We introduce a comprehensive framework that employs RL agent for multi-objective energy optimization and blockchain for tamper-proof data and transaction management. Simulations using real-world data from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The RL agent achieves demand-supply balancing within 2\% and maintains near-optimal supply costs for the majority of the operating hours. Moreover, it generates robust battery storage policies capable of handling variability in solar and wind generation. All decisions are recorded on an Algorand-based blockchain, ensuring transparency, auditability, and security - key enablers for trustworthy multi-agent energy trading. Our contributions include a novel system architecture, curriculum learning for robust agent development, and actionable policy insights for practical deployment.
Synthetic time series are essential tools for data augmentation, stress testing, and algorithmic prototyping in quantitative finance. However, in cryptocurrency markets, characterized by 24/7 trading, extreme volatility, and rapid regime shifts, existing Time Series Generation (TSG) methods and benchmarks often fall short, jeopardizing practical utility. Most prior work (1) targets non-financial or traditional financial domains, (2) focuses narrowly on classification and forecasting while neglecting crypto-specific complexities, and (3) lacks critical financial evaluations, particularly for trading applications. To address these gaps, we introduce \textsf{CTBench}, the first comprehensive TSG benchmark tailored for the cryptocurrency domain. \textsf{CTBench} curates an open-source dataset from 452 tokens and evaluates TSG models across 13 metrics spanning 5 key dimensions: forecasting accuracy, rank fidelity, trading performance, risk assessment, and computational efficiency. A key innovation is a dual-task evaluation framework: (1) the \emph{Predictive Utility} task measures how well synthetic data preserves temporal and cross-sectional patterns for forecasting, while (2) the \emph{Statistical Arbitrage} task assesses whether reconstructed series support mean-reverting signals for trading. We benchmark eight representative models from five methodological families over four distinct market regimes, uncovering trade-offs between statistical fidelity and real-world profitability. Notably, \textsf{CTBench} offers model ranking analysis and actionable guidance for selecting and deploying TSG models in crypto analytics and strategy development.
This study proposes a novel methodological framework integrating a LightGBM regression model and genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to systematically evaluate the contribution of COVID-19-related indicators to Bitcoin return prediction. The primary objective was not merely to forecast Bitcoin returns but rather to determine whether including pandemic-related health data significantly enhances prediction accuracy. A comprehensive dataset comprising daily Bitcoin returns and COVID-19 metrics (vaccination rates, hospitalizations, testing statistics) was constructed. Predictive models, trained with and without COVID-19 features, were optimized using GA over 31 independent runs, allowing robust statistical assessment. Performance metrics (R2, RMSE, MAE) were statistically compared through distribution overlaps and Mann-Whitney U tests. Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) analysis quantified individual feature contributions. Results indicate that COVID-19 indicators significantly improved model performance, particularly in capturing extreme market fluctuations (R2 increased by 40%, RMSE decreased by 2%, both highly significant statistically). Among COVID-19 features, vaccination metrics, especially the 75th percentile of fully vaccinated individuals, emerged as dominant predictors. The proposed methodology extends existing financial analytics tools by incorporating public health signals, providing investors and policymakers with refined indicators to navigate market uncertainty during systemic crises.