Blockchain Papers

Pratik Biswas, Chandan Sharma

No abstract is available for this record.

Yuankui Wang, Mohd Fahmi Ghazali, Ruzanna Ab Razak, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi

This study applies Phase Space Reconstruction and Phase Space LSTM to analyze Bitcoin’s interactions with Gold, S&P 500, U.S. Bonds, EUR/USD, and Crude Oil, revealing hidden dependencies and chaotic structures in financial markets. Study implement a multi-method validation framework combining the Rosenstein algorithm for Lyapunov exponent estimation, 0 − 1 test for chaos and BDS test to provide robust evidence for deterministic chaos. Results indicate that most assets exhibit deterministic chaos, with price evolution highly sensitive to liquidity conditions and macroeconomic forces. Phase space analysis conducted in optimal four-dimensional embeddings uncovers stronger predictive linkages between Bitcoin and U.S. Bonds, reinforcing its growing dependence on global financial conditions. The application of PS-LSTM significantly enhances forecasting accuracy, demonstrated through rigorous validation including statistical significance testing and economic significance evaluation using risk-adjusted performance metrics. These findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are not isolated assets but deeply entangled with systemic financial fluctuations, necessitating a reassessment of market stability and risk propagation through the lens of statistical mechanics and econophysics. • PSR reveals hidden dependencies across Bitcoin, gold, stocks, bonds, exchange rate and commodities. • Phase space analysis reveals that Bitcoin-bond linkages indicate macroeconomic integration. • Phase Space LSTM (PS-LSTM) enhances forecasting accuracy, reducing overfitting and improving predictive stability across all assets. • PS-LSTM reduces overfitting and improves forecasting across all asset classes. • Chaos detection confirms the presence of nonlinear dynamics in cryptocurrency and commodity markets. • Higher-dimensional embeddings enhance the detection of causality between financial assets.

Marcin Wątorek, Marija Bezbradica, Martin Crane, Jarosław Kwapień · 5 authors

Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales. The method employs $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MSTs) to visualize evolving network structures. Using minute-by-minute exchange rate data for 140 cryptocurrencies on Binance (Jan 2021-Oct 2024), a rolling window analysis reveals significant shifts in $q$MSTs, notably around April 2022 during the Terra/Luna crash. Initially centralized around Bitcoin (BTC), the network later decentralized, with Ethereum (ETH) and others gaining prominence. Spectral analysis confirms BTC's declining dominance and increased diversification among assets. A key finding is that medium-scale fluctuations exhibit stronger correlations than large-scale ones, with $q$MSTs based on the latter being more decentralized. Properly exploiting such facts may offer the possibility of a more flexible optimal portfolio construction. Distance metrics highlight that major disruptions amplify correlation differences, leading to fully decentralized structures during crashes. These results demonstrate $q$MSTs' effectiveness in uncovering fluctuation-dependent correlations, with potential applications beyond finance, including biology, social and other complex systems.

Imran Khan, Sami Ur Rahman

No abstract is available for this record.

Arthur Rodrigues Pereira de Carvalho, Felipe Quintino, Helton Saulo, Luan Carlos de Sena Monteiro Ozelim · 6 authors

This study introduces and evaluates stochastic models to describe Bitcoin price dynamics at different time scales, using daily data from January 2019 to December 2024 and intraday data from 20 January 2025. In the daily analysis, models based on are introduced to capture long memory, paired with both constant-volatility (CONST) and stochastic-volatility specifications via the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process. The novel family of models is based on Generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with a fluctuating exponential trend (GOU-FE), which are modified to account for multiplicative fBm noise. Traditional Geometric Brownian Motion processes (GFBM) with either constant or stochastic volatilities are employed as benchmarks for comparative analysis, bringing the total number of evaluated models to four: GFBM-CONST, GFBM-CIR, GOUFE-CONST, and GOUFE-CIR models. Estimation by numerical optimization and evaluation through error metrics, information criteria (AIC, BIC, and EDC), and 95% Expected Shortfall (ES95) indicated better fit for the stochastic-volatility models (GOUFE-CIR and GFBM-CIR) and the lowest tail-risk for GOUFE-CIR, although residual analysis revealed heteroscedasticity and non-normality. For intraday data, Exponential, Weibull, and Generalized Gamma Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models, with adjustments for intraday patterns, were applied to model the time between transactions. Results showed that the ACD models effectively capture duration clustering, with the Generalized Gamma version exhibiting superior fit according to the Cox–Snell residual-based analysis and other metrics (AIC, BIC, and mean-squared error). Overall, this work advances the modeling of Bitcoin prices by rigorously applying and comparing stochastic frameworks across temporal scales, highlighting the critical roles of long memory, stochastic volatility, and intraday dynamics in understanding the behavior of this digital asset.

Hrishikesh Desai

Purpose This study aims to fill a gap in cryptocurrency regulation research by establishing a dynamic framework that balances market stability and capital flight. It seeks to derive an optimal, adaptive regulatory strategy that reconciles stringent enforcement with its unintended consequences. Ultimately, the study provides insights to guide policymakers in designing interventions that sustain financial stability while supporting efficient market functioning in the evolving digital asset environment. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a differential game-theoretic model to capture the dynamic interplay between cryptocurrency regulators and market participants. Using stochastic differential equations to model market stability and capital flight, the framework derives Nash equilibrium conditions for optimal regulatory intensity and liquidity migration. The model is validated through Monte Carlo simulations that examine various market scenarios and sensitivity analyses for robustness across different parameter settings. Findings Results indicate that an aggressive initial regulatory stance rapidly enhances market stability, albeit at the cost of a temporary increase in capital flight. Over time, adaptive regulatory adjustments lead to a self-stabilizing equilibrium where volatility diminishes and liquidity migration is contained. The Nash equilibrium analysis confirms that a balanced enforcement strategy can effectively mitigate the adverse impacts of capital flight while maintaining overall market resilience, as supported by consistent outcomes from the simulation experiments. Research limitations/implications The model’s simplifying assumptions, including a homogeneous market and single regulator framework, limit its immediate real world applicability. It uses a continuous time approach and normally distributed shocks, which may not capture discrete regulatory events or extreme market disruptions. Additionally, the analysis is sensitive to parameter calibration. These limitations suggest further research is needed to incorporate multi-agent dynamics, market microstructure factors and alternative stochastic processes to improve empirical validation and practical relevance. Practical implications The study provides policymakers a dynamic framework for calibrating regulatory intensity to balance market stability with the risk of capital flight. It emphasizes that while strict initial enforcement can stabilize markets, subsequent moderation is key to sustaining resilience. The derived equilibrium conditions provide actionable insights for designing adaptive, real-time interventions that minimize liquidity outflows and improve overall market integrity, supporting a regulatory approach that promotes innovation while mitigating systemic risks. Originality/value This research pioneers the application of differential game theory to cryptocurrency regulation, integrating market stability and capital flight into a single dynamic model. By deriving Nash equilibrium conditions and validating the framework through numerical experiments, the paper advances current literature and provides a novel, theoretically rigorous tool. Its innovative perspective equips policymakers with a nuanced approach to designing responsive regulatory strategies in the fast-evolving digital asset space.

Imtiaz Sifata

We quantify the economic consequences of Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. We document a structural break in inflation dynamics, shifting to an ARIMA(2,1,1) process with deflationary tendencies. The relationship between inflation and staking returns weakens post-Merge, challenging assumptions about incentive structures in Proof-of-Stake systems. Analysis reveals significant changes in market microstructure, including reduced spot trading volume and altered futures market behavior. We identify complex feedback loops between on-chain metrics and market variables, defying traditional equilibrium models. Our results suggest the need for new economic models to understand Proof-of-Stake systems and their market implications.

Ismail Adelopo, Xiaojun Luo

Abstract This paper presents a systematic literature review of 137 peer-reviewed publications from 41 journals, examining the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets. Using a rigorous three-stage methodology for study selection, we identify key research themes including spillover effects, volatility transmission, interdependence, hedge effectiveness, and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies. Our analysis reveals that GARCH-based models dominate early work on volatility and contagion, while more recent studies adopt advanced approaches, such as cross-quantilogram, wavelet coherence, and multifractal detrended cross-correlation, to capture non-linear, time-varying relationships without assuming stationarity. Our review offers three major contributions. First, we provide a comprehensive classification of the interconnectedness between different types of cryptocurrencies and financial markets, highlighting their evolving roles as hedges, safe havens, or diversifiers. Second, we synthesize empirical findings to show how spillovers, time-varying correlations, tail dependencies, and contagion risks intensify under major events, such as COVID-19, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical conflicts. Third, we draw attention to overlooked areas, including emerging market dynamics and macroeconomic determinants. We recommend that policymakers implement early warning systems and proactively monitor volatility and connectedness in crypto markets to reduce contagion risks and maintain financial stability. Policy frameworks should consider the unique features of crypto markets and the time-varying interlinkages between cryptos, commodities, fiat currencies, and equities. Investors, in turn, should track cryptocurrency price movements closely, as they provide valuable signals for forecasting broader market trends and improving portfolio risk management. These insights have practical implications for risk mitigation and decision-making in increasingly integrated financial systems.

Samad Wali, Muhammad Irfan Khan, Noshaba Zulfiqar

No abstract is available for this record.

Minxing Wang, Pavel Braslavski, Dmitry I. Ignatov

Accurate and efficient cryptocurrency price prediction is vital for investors in the volatile crypto market. This study comprehensively evaluates nine models—including baseline, zero-shot, and deep learning architectures—on 21 major cryptocurrencies using daily and hourly data. Our multi-dimensional evaluation assesses models based on prediction accuracy (MAE, RMSE, MAPE), speed, statistical significance (Diebold–Mariano test), and economic value (Sharpe Ratio). Our research found that the optimally fine-tuned TimeGPT model (without variables) demonstrated superior performance across both Daily and Hourly datasets, with its statistical leadership confirmed by the Diebold–Mariano test. Fine-tuned Chronos excelled in daily predictions, while TFT was a close second to TimeGPT for hourly forecasts. Crucially, zero-shot models like TimeGPT and Chronos were tens of times faster than traditional deep learning models, offering high accuracy with superior computational efficiency. A key finding from our economic analysis is that a model’s effectiveness is highly dependent on market characteristics. For instance, TimeGPT with variables showed exceptional profitability in the volatile ETH market, whereas the zero-shot Chronos model was the top performer for the cyclical BTC market. This also highlights that variables have asset-specific effects with TimeGPT: improving predictions for ICP, LTC, OP, and DOT, but hindering UNI, ATOM, BCH, and ARB. Recognizing that prior research has overemphasized prediction accuracy, this study provides a more holistic and practical standard for model evaluation by integrating speed, statistical significance, and economic value. Our findings collectively underscore TimeGPT’s immense potential as a leading solution for cryptocurrency forecasting, offering a top-tier balance of accuracy and efficiency. This multi-dimensional approach provides critical, theoretical, and practical guidance for investment decisions and risk management, proving especially valuable in real-time trading scenarios.

Nader Naifar, Mohammed Makni

The FTX collapse marked a significant shock to global crypto markets, prompting concerns about systemic contagion. This paper investigates the dynamic connectedness between cryptocurrencies, DeFi tokens, and tech stocks, focusing on the systemic impact of the FTX collapse. We decompose total, internal, and external connectedness across asset groups using a time-varying parameter VAR model. The results show that post-FTX, Bitcoin and Ethereum intensified their roles as core shock transmitters, while Tether consistently acted as a volatility absorber. DeFi tokens exhibited heightened intra-group spillovers and occasional external influence, reflecting structural fragility. Tech stocks remained largely insulated, with reduced cross-market linkages. Network visualizations confirm a post-crisis fragmentation, characterized by denser internal crypto-DeFi ties and weaker inter-group contagion. These findings have important policy implications for regulators, investors, and system designers, indicating the need for targeted risk monitoring and governance within decentralized finance.

Giovanni De Luca, Angelo Montanino

This paper investigates the dependence structure between returns and trading volumes for five major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. Using a copula-based framework, we focus on a mixture of the Joe copula and its 90-degree rotation to capture asymmetric relationships, especially in the tails of the distribution. Our findings reveal significant upper and lower–upper tail dependencies, suggesting that extreme trading volumes are associated with both positive and negative return extremes. The results confirm a nonlinear and asymmetric volume–return relationship, which traditional linear models fail to capture.

Ekaterina Morozova, Vladimir Panov

No abstract is available for this record.

Chia‐Hsun Hsieh, Pao-Hsien Huang, Hung‐Chun Liu

No abstract is available for this record.

Florentin Şerban, Silvia Dedu

Traditional portfolio optimization models, rooted in the mean–variance framework of Markowitz, rely heavily on variance as a risk measure. Although theoretically elegant, this approach becomes fragile in volatile and structurally unstable markets such as cryptocurrencies, where return distributions deviate significantly from normality, cor-relations are unstable, and concentration risk emerges. These limitations have motivated the search for alternative frameworks capable of capturing uncertainty in a more flexible and distribution-free manner. Entropy, originally introduced by Shannon as a measure of information, has gradually been recognized in the financial literature as a suitable proxy for diversification and systemic uncertainty. To address the shortcomings of variance-based models, this paper introduces the Weighted Shannon Entropy (WSE) model as a diversification-oriented alternative. By extending the classical Shannon entropy with asset-specific informational weights, the WSE framework provides additional flexibility for modeling heterogeneous asset char-acteristics, such as liquidity, informational value, or perceived reliability. Using the principle of maximum entropy and the method of Lagrange multipliers, we derive ex-ponential-form solutions for portfolio weights that naturally discourage concentration, ensure balanced allocations, and remain analytically tractable. The methodology is validated empirically on a portfolio of four leading cryptocurren-cies—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB)—using market data from January to March 2025. The results demonstrate that the entropy-based optimization framework produces well-diversified portfolios, robust to volatility and structural instability, and provides a distribution-free alternative to the classical mean–variance model. Beyond its empirical performance, the WSE formulation highlights the conceptual advantage of entropy in integrating return, risk, and diversification into a single unified framework. The paper contributes both theoretically and practically: it strengthens the mathematical foundation of entropy-based portfolio selection, extends its applicability to digital asset markets, and illustrates how weighting schemes can enrich the classical Shannon measure. Future research may extend this approach to multi-period optimization, gen-eralized entropies such as Tsallis and Kaniadakis, or integration with machine learning models for dynamic portfolio management.

Weiyi Liu, Xiaojuan Zhao, Wenjia Li, Ye Wang

No abstract is available for this record.

Bidesh Biswas Biki, Makoto Sakamoto, Amane Takei, Mehreen Alam · 6 authors

The rapid rise of the prices of cryptocurrencies has intensified the need for robust forecasting models that can capture the irregular and volatile patterns. This study aims to forecast Bitcoin prices over a 15-day horizon by evaluating and comparing two distant predictive modeling approaches: the Bayesian State-Space model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. Historical price data from January 2024 to April 2025 is used for model training and testing. The Bayesian model provided probabilistic insights by achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0000 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0026 for training data. For testing data, it provided 0.0013 for MSE and 0.0307 for MAE. On the other hand, the LSTM model provided temporal dependencies and performed strongly by achieving 0.0004 for MSE, 0.0160 for MAE, 0.0212 for RMSE, 0.9924 for R2 in terms of training data and for testing data, and 0.0007 for MSE with an R2 of 0.3505. From the result, it indicates that while the LSTM model excels in training performance, the Bayesian model provides better interpretability with lower error margins in testing by highlighting the trade-offs between model accuracy and probabilistic forecasting in the cryptocurrency markets.

Walid Ben Omrane, Halim Dabbou, Samir Saadi, Tanseli Savaşer · 5 authors

We examine how Bitcoin and Ethereum volatilities react to macroeconomic data releases from the US, Germany, and Japan before, during, and after their official announcements. Analyzing 5-minute observations from 2016 to 2023, we find that volatility responds significantly to select news categories, particularly in the pre-announcement period. US monetary policy news consistently drives volatility across all phases, with a heightened impact during the pandemic. Ethereum shows greater sensitivity to US announcements than Bitcoin but remains unresponsive to non-US news, especially before the pandemic. Our findings highlight the need to account for both pre- and post-announcement periods when evaluating the intraday price impact of macroeconomic news on cryptocurrencies. • We examine the response of Bitcoin and Ethereum volatilities to macroeconomic figures. • We show that volatility reacts only to a few news categories. • US monetary policy news consistently affects volatility before, during, and after its release. • Ethereum volatility is more sensitive to US announcements compared to Bitcoin. • Ethereum exhibits less pre-announcement volatility and less sensitivity to non-US news.

Nidhiya Maria Thomas, Natchimuthu Natchimuthu

This paper surveys the academic literature concerning the bubble periods in the cryptocurrency market. This study aims to understand the historical and developmental trajectory of the cryptocurrency market through its various bubble periods. This study also identifies the factors contributing to bubble formation. The study is based on the PRISMA framework for literature review. Based on the review, the cryptocurrency market experienced four major bubbles in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021. The enthusiasm for cryptocurrency innovation triggered the 2011 bubble. The 2013 bubble was influenced by the economic crisis that channeled funds to the cryptocurrency market due to their centralized nature. In 2017, the possibilities of Web 3.0 and altcoins increased the enthusiasm of crypto investors. The crypto winter of 2017 subsided with the rise of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), stimulating interest and driving prices in the cryptocurrency market. Specifically, speculation, media coverage, investor sentiment, herding, volatility, and coexplosivity are significant factors that trigger bubble development. Moreover, government policies and regulations can be crucial in sustaining and bursting the bubbles. This review offers a comprehensive view of academic studies on bubble periods in the cryptocurrency market. This study also provides a chronological overview of major bubble periods that have significantly influenced the market development. This study is one of the first reviews conducted to understand the development of the cryptocurrency market through bubble periods and the factors contributing to bubble formation. The study also follows the PRISMA framework for structuring the review, as the literature lacks reviews on bubble periods on the basis of this framework.

D. Kim, Frederique J. Vanheusden, Amee Kim

This study is the first to integrate recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) and short-time Fourier Transform (STFT) to predict cryptocurrency market behaviour. Recurrence plots, RQA statistics and STFT spectrograms were calculated from return data and used as input in random forest algorithms as they are optimal tools for identifying non-linear dynamics in market data and analyse their frequency. Our optimised XGBoost algorithm provided a forecasting AUC above 76.7% and accuracy of 70% in predicting increasing or decreasing returns. This highlights the model’s ability to support cryptocurrency investment decision-making within an interpretable machine learning framework.

Barbara Čeryová, Peter Árendáš

No abstract is available for this record.

Independent Algorithmic Trading Consultant and Quantitative Researcher serving international financial institutions Los Angeles, USA, Maksim Baradziuk

The study is devoted to identifying and analyzing the synergistic interaction between the theoretical principles of behavioral finance and applied methodologies for developing high-r eturn algorithmic strategies in the digital asset segment. In conditions where the efficient market hypothesis demonstrates limitations in its applicability, especially in environments with increased volatility and underdeveloped infrastructure—such as cryptocurrency markets and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems—behavioral biases emerge as important determinants of market inefficiency. The paper presents a framework that combines the targeted exploitation of cognitive patterns, including the disposition effect and the phenomenon of herd behavior, with the application of advanced technological solutions. Based on four original case studies—ranging from the development of a proprietary backtesting mechanism incorporating elements of chaotic process modeling to the construction of a predictive risk management system for DeFi—the practical implementation of the proposed approach is demonstrated. The results obtained confirm the superiority of the hybrid architecture over traditional methods: from effectively reducing crash risk in DeFi carry trade strategies to maintaining portfolio resilience under market stress conditions and generating ultra-high returns (CAGR exceeding 200% with MDD of 30%). The study’s findings reinforce the validity of the adaptive markets hypothesis and confirm the applied value of the synthetic methodology for modern algorithmic trading. The information reflected in the study will be of interest to asset managers, quantitative fund specialists, and researchers focused on creating next-generation algorithms.

Saad Hameed, Danial Javaheri, Waqas Naseem

The cryptocurrency market, which is extremely volatile and has high price fluctuations, is transforming the financial ecosystems in the world.In contrast to traditional markets, cryptocurrencies are characterized by the unprecedented volatility due to the complicated interaction of speculative trading, regulatory changes, technological breakthroughs, and macroeconomic forces.The purpose of the current study is to build and test machine learning models to predict the price trend of cryptocurrencies, including the most popular ones, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other top altcoins that are traded in the United States.The analysis is based on a large amount of data on historical prices at daily, hourly, and minute-by-minute intervals, including the detailed data on opening, closing, high, and low prices, and trading volumes that indicate the liquidity and the activity of investors.The most important technical indicators such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands are incorporated to identify the most important market signals and momentum.It uses three machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest Classifier, and XGBoost Classifier.Directional prediction capability (upward or downward price movements) is evaluated by accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score measures of model performance.Logistic Regression was the most accurate among the models that were tested, which highlights its comparative effectiveness in this application.The introduction of AI-based predictive analytics into cryptocurrency trading can be a great way to improve the process of decision-making by traders and institutional investors and help them comply with regulations in the U.S. financial system.This study sheds light on the transformational nature of machine learning in cryptocurrency prediction and also points out the research opportunities in the future, especially the use of deep learning models like the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network in time-series analysis.

Aditya Bhushan, Ashutosh Kumar Singh

No abstract is available for this record.