Cryptocurrency price fluctuations are increasingly interesting and are of concern to researchers around the world. Many ways have been proposed to predict the next price, whether it will go up or down. This research shows how to create a patterned dataset from an API connection shared by Indonesia's leading digital currency market, Indodax. From the data on the movement of all cryptocurrencies, the lowest price variable is taken for 24 hours, the latest price, the highest price for 24 hours, and the time of price movement, which is then programmed into a pattern dataset. This patterned dataset is then mined and stored continuously on the MySQL Server DBMS on the hosting service. The patterned dataset is then separated per month, and the data per day is calculated. The minimum, maximum, and average functions are then applied to form a graph that displays paired lines of the movement of the patterned dataset in Crash and Moon conditions. From the observations, the Patterned Graphical Pair dataset using the Average function provides the best potential for predicting future cryptocurrency price fluctuations with the Bitcoin case study. The novelty of this research is the development of patterned datasets for predicting cryptocurrency fluctuations based on the influence of bitcoin price movements on all currencies in the cryptocurrency trading market. This research also proved the truth of hypotheses a and b related to the start and end of fluctuations.
The research presented in this paper is the first to introduce a thorough Descriptive-Predictive–Prescriptive (DPP) Framework for comprehending the interaction between social media and cryptocurrencies. Recognizing the underexplored domain of the social-media–cryptocurrency interaction, we delve into its many aspects, better understanding present dynamics, forecasting potential future trajectories, and prescribing best solutions for stakeholders. We evaluate social media speech and behavior connected to cryptocurrencies using big data analytics, translating raw data into meaningful insights using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques like sentiment analysis. When applied to an experimental dataset, the DPP nets superior results compared to the baseline approach, displaying an improvement of 3.44% of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric and 4.59% of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) metric. The unique DPP framework enables a more in-depth assessment of social media’s influence on cryptocurrency trends, and lays the path for strategic decision-making in this nascent but rapidly developing field of study.
The Elliptic dataset compiles a comprehensive history of Bitcoin transactions, integrating both anti-money laundering (AML) tags and distinct graph network features. Given the nature of the Bitcoin transaction network—a complex, weakly interconnected structure—leveraging graph analysis techniques for its study holds immense potential, especially in the realm of detecting illicit activities like hacking, drug trades, gambling, and more. A detailed examination of the Elliptic dataset, encompassing transaction amounts, frequencies, source and destination addresses, sheds light on the inherent structure and peculiarities of the Bitcoin transaction ecosystem. By conceptualizing this transactional landscape as a graph, a slew of analytical attributes emerge: node degree distribution, community architecture, centrality measures, and so forth. Such attributes pave the way for the creation of predictive models that can pinpoint and prognosticate potential unlawful trade actions. Several computational models have been employed on the Elliptic dataset, such as Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN). The authors of this particular study delve into augmentations of the GCN model, juxtaposing the efficacy of the original GCN model against their enhanced algorithm within the context of the Elliptic dataset.
Utilizing graph analytics and learning has proven to be an effective method for exploring aspects of crypto economics such as network effects, decentralization, tokenomics, and fraud detection. However, the majority of existing research predominantly focuses on leading cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), overlooking the vast diversity among the more than 10,000 cryptocurrency projects. This oversight may result in skewed insights. In our paper, we aim to broaden the scope of investigation to encompass the entire spectrum of cryptocurrencies, examining various coins across their entire life cycles. Furthermore, we intend to pioneer advanced methodologies, including graph transfer learning and the innovative concept of "graph of graphs". By extending our research beyond the confines of BTC and ETH, our goal is to enhance the depth of our understanding of crypto economics and to advance the development of more intricate graph-based techniques.
Nitin Kumar, S. Mirdula, Pushpa Singh, T. Gayathri · 6 authors
The primary objective of this research is to comprehensively explore and analyze the dynamics of the Ethereum network using innovative methodologies and system architectures. The study aims to extract meaningful statistics from the Ethereum blockchain, focusing on account activity, popularity trends, and the distribution of transactions. Through rigorous data collection, robust query construction, and advanced analytical techniques, the research seeks to provide valuable insights into how the Ethereum network has evolved, particularly in the aftermath of the “crypto bubble explosion.” The overarching goal is to contribute to the understanding of Ethereum's structural patterns, user behaviors, and the impact of external factors on the network. The research has yielded significant results, unveiling key insights into Ethereum network dynamics. The data collection phase, facilitated by Google BigQuery, successfully captured and filtered relevant information from a specific block range post the “crypto bubble explosion.” The SQL queries, strategically designed for active account identification and popularity assessment, demonstrated efficiency and accuracy in handling the vast Ethereum dataset. The proposed system, introducing the novel methodology of “portation,” showcased its efficiency in extracting and interpreting Ethereum blockchain data using Google BigQuery. The system architecture, as illustrated in the diagram, proved to be a well-coordinated and dynamic framework, emphasizing the seamless flow of data and processes.
Abstract Cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency using cryptographic techniques in a decentralized system for secure peer-to-peer transactions. It is gaining much popularity over traditional methods of payment because it facilitates very fast, easy, and secure transactions. Social media is a significant influence, but it is also very volatile and subject to a variety of other factors. Thus, with over four billion active users on social media, we need to understand its influence on the crypto market and how it can lead to fluctuations in the values of these cryptocurrencies. In our work, we analyze the influence of activities on Twitter, in particular the sentiments of the tweets posted regarding cryptocurrencies and how they influence their prices. In addition, we also collect metadata related to tweets and users. We try to leverage these features to predict the price of cryptocurrency, for which we use some regression-based models and an LSTM-based model.
Naomi A. Arnold, Peijie Zhong, Cheick Tidiane Bâ, Benjamin A. Steer · 8 authors
Distributed ledger technologies have opened up a wealth of fine-grained transaction data from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This allows research into problems like anomaly detection, anti-money laundering, pattern mining and activity clustering (where data from traditional currencies is rarely available). The formalism of temporal networks offers a natural way of representing this data and offers access to a wealth of metrics and models. However, the large scale of the data presents a challenge using standard graph analysis techniques. We use temporal motifs to analyse two Bitcoin datasets and one NFT dataset, using sequences of three transactions and up to three users. We show that the commonly used technique of simply counting temporal motifs over all users and all time can give misleading conclusions. Here we also study the motifs contributed by each user and discover that the motif distribution is heavy-tailed and that the key players have diverse motif signatures. We study the motifs that occur in different time periods and find events and anomalous activity that cannot be seen just by a count on the whole dataset. Studying motif completion time reveals dynamics driven by human behaviour as well as algorithmic behaviour.
Mindaugas Juodis, Ernestas Filatovas, Remigijus Paulavičius
The decentralization paradigm has made blockchain one of the most disruptive technologies today. When evaluating the level of decentralization, the key metric for most public blockchain networks is the degree of decentralization of the resources responsible for determining who generates the blocks. In turn, it facilitates a greater understanding of both security and scalability on a blockchain. This work provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art on wealth decentralization, which has not yet received the attention it deserves. We collect data, calculate various wealth decentralization metrics, and compare our results with research on the same methodology. As the amount of data for various blockchains increases rapidly, it is helpful to have techniques to aggregate data for statistical analysis. We introduce and provide conservative estimates of decentralized group metrics based on the reduced data and compare them with full-data measurements. Our research considers both the Layer 1 blockchains of Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with Layer 2 blockchains such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon.
The results indicate a dynamic pattern of interconnectedness throughout history. Based on the findings, the transmission of volatility exhibited a higher magnitude during the period of COVID-19. The issue of high transmission volatility due to limited diversification options concerns investors, green stakeholders, and policymakers alike. This article proposes various potential areas for future research. The ICEA index can potentially assist businesses operating in environmentally sensitive sectors make well-informed policy decisions. It includes sectors such as environmental green bonds, and commodities. Consideration should be given to implementing blockchain technology, as it can consume less power in this particular scenario. By employing a time-frequency paradigm, this study is able to incorporate the investment horizon, a crucial factor to be taken into account when making financial judgments. The advancement of this research could be facilitated by directing our attention toward the implications of our findings on portfolios and developing appropriate measures for their evaluation.
In Ethereum, the ledger exchanges messages along an underlying Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network to reach consistency. Understanding the underlying network topology of Ethereum is crucial for network optimization, security and scalability. However, the accurate discovery of Ethereum network topology is non-trivial due to its deliberately designed security mechanism. Consequently, existing measuring schemes cannot accurately infer the Ethereum network topology with a low cost. To address this challenge, we propose the Distributed Ethereum Network Analyzer (DEthna) tool, which can accurately and efficiently measure the Ethereum network topology. In DEthna, a novel parallel measurement model is proposed that can generate marked transactions to infer link connections based on the transaction replacement and propagation mechanism in Ethereum. Moreover, a workload offloading scheme is designed so that DEthna can be deployed on multiple distributed probing nodes so as to measure a large-scale Ethereum network at a low cost. We run DEthna on Goerli (the most popular Ethereum test network) to evaluate its capability in discovering network topology. The experimental results demonstrate that DEthna significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines. Based on DEthna, we further analyze characteristics of the Ethereum network revealing that there exist more than 50% low-degree Ethereum nodes that weaken the network robustness.
In the fourth industrial revolution era of today, individuals encounter an immense volume of information daily. The digital world is rich in data like IoT, social media, healthcare, business, cryptocurrencies, cybersecurity, etc. The situation can become problematic as these vast amounts of data require significant storage capacity, which leads to challenges in executing tasks such as analytical operations, processing operations, and retrieval operations that are time-consuming and arduous. To effectively analyze and utilize this data, artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning, and deep learning, can provide a practical solution. Clustering, an unsupervised learning technique, aims to identify a specific number of clusters to effectively categorize the data through data grouping. Hence, clustering is related to many fields and is used in various applications that deal with large datasets. This survey examines seven widely recognized clustering techniques, namely k -means, G -means, DBSCAN, Agglomerative hierarchical clustering, Two-stage density (DBSCAN and k -means) algorithm, Two-levels (DBSCAN and hierarchical) clustering algorithm, and Two-stage MeanShift and k -means clustering algorithm and compares them with a real dataset - The Blockchain dataset, including prominent cryptocurrencies like Binance, Bitcoin, Doge, and Ethereum, under several metrics such as silhouette coefficient, Calinski-Harabasz, Davies-Bouldin Index, time complexity, and entropy.
Muyun Gao, Shenwen Lin, Xin Tian, Xi He · 6 authors
Abstract There are service communities with different functions in the Bitcoin transactions system. Identifying community categories helps to further understand the Bitcoin transactions system and facilitates targeted regulation of anonymized Bitcoin transactions. To this end, a Bitcoin service community classification method based on Random Forest and improved K‐Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm is proposed. First, the transaction characteristics of different types of communities are analyzed and summarized, and the corresponding transaction features are extracted from the address and entity levels; then multiple classification algorithms are compared, the optimal model to filter the effective features is selected, and the feature vector of entity addresses is constructed. Finally, a classification model is constructed based on Random Forest and improved KNN algorithm to classify the entities. By constructing different classification models for experimental comparison, the accuracy and stability advantages of the proposed method for classification in service community classification research are verified.
Haoxiang Luo, Gang Sun, Hongfang Yu, Bo Lei · 5 authors
Blockchain technology has gained considerable attention in wireless network scenarios due to its security features. However, the complex workflow of blockchain consensus negotiation often results in high energy consumption. This may cause nodes to run out of energy quickly and go offline, especially in wireless networks with limited node battery capacity. To improve this issue, we propose a sharding scheme named Green Sharding (GS), which minimizes the energy consumption for Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) consensus. The GS assigns nodes in a wireless blockchain network to specific shards based on their geographical location, thereby avoiding their participation in a global consensus. Meanwhile, we also propose an estimation method of energy consumption after sharding, to simplify the energy consumption computing of sharded wireless blockchain networks. Furthermore, we provide an optimal algorithm for committee node (CN) selection, which can further decline the energy consumption of committee consensus on the GS basis. At last, we analyze and simulate the GS performance for two 6G communication scenarios: the terahertz (THz) and the millimeter wave (mmWave) signals. The simulation results prove the effectiveness of the GS, which reduces energy consumption by 99.76%, and the minimum error of our estimation method is only 0.11%.
Yu Gao, Carlo Campajola, Nicolò Vallarano, Andreia Sofia Teixeira · 5 authors
IOTA is a distributed ledger technology that relies on a peer-to-peer (P2P) network for communications. Recently an auto-peering algorithm was proposed to build connections among IOTA peers according to their "Mana" endowment, which is an IOTA internal reputation system. This paper's goal is to detect potential vulnerabilities and evaluate the resilience of the P2P network generated using IOTA auto-peering algorithm against eclipse attacks. In order to do so, we interpret IOTA's auto-peering algorithm as a random network formation model and employ different network metrics to identify cost-efficient partitions of the network. As a result, we present a potential strategy that an attacker can use to eclipse a significant part of the network, providing estimates of costs and potential damage caused by the attack. On the side, we provide an analysis of the properties of IOTA auto-peering network ensemble, as an interesting class of homophile random networks in between 1D lattices and regular Poisson graphs.
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which are immutable and transferable tokens on blockchain networks, have been used to certify the ownership of digital images often grouped in collections. Depending on individual interests, wallets explore and purchase NFTs in one or more image collections. Among many potential factors of shaping purchase trajectories, this paper specifically examines how visual similarities between collections affect wallets' explorations. Our model characterizes each wallet's explorations with a Lévy flight and shows that wallets tend to favor collections having similar visual features to their previous purchases while their behaviors vary widely. The model also predicts the extent to which the next collection is close to the most recent collection of purchases with respect to visual features. These results are expected to enhance and support recommendation systems for the NFT market.
Time-varying graphs are increasingly common in financial, social and biological data analysis applications. Feature extraction that efficiently encodes the complex structure of sparse, multi-layered, dynamic graphs presents computational and methodological challenges. In the past decade, topological data analysis has become a popular method of studying the shape of data. This is achieved by building an increasing sequence of simplicial complexes (called filtration) indexed by a scale parameter on top of the data to keep track of topological changes along with the filtration. This multi-scale summary, called persistence diagram (PD), is often vectorized to be used in machine learning algorithms. This paper introduces a topological approach to extract information on higher-order interactions encoded in persistence diagrams from graph data. Our framework has two main steps: first, we convert the graph into a higher-dimensional simplicial complex by adding structures such as triangles, tetrahedrons etc., and compute a PD using the so-called lower-star filtration which utilizes quantitative node attributes. Then, we vectorize the PD by averaging the associated Betti function over successive scale values of a one-dimensional grid using integration. A notable aspect of our procedure is that it avoids embedding a graph into a metric space. We show that the proposed vectorization summary is robust against input noise with respect to the $ L_1 $ 1-Wasserstein distance. In simulation studies, the proposed approach leads to improved change point detection rates and outperforms one of the state-of-the-art methods for anomaly detection in time-varying graphs. In real data application, our approach leads to up to a 20% gain in anomalous price prediction in the Ethereum cryptocurrency transaction network.