The combination of Deep Learning and GARCH-type models has been proved to be superior to the single models in forecasting of volatility in various markets such as energy, main metals, and especially stock markets. To verify this hypothesis for cryptocurrencies market, we constructed various Deep Learning models based on Feed Forward Neural Networks (DFFNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and evaluated their performance in forecasting the volatility of 27 cryptocurrencies. Then, different hybrid models were built in which the outputs of three GARCH-type models, namely GARCH, EGARCH, and APGARCH, with three different assumptions for the residuals’ distribution were fed into the DFFNN and LSTM networks. In other words, GARCH-type models were utilized as feature extractors and the deep learning models leveraged a sequence of extracted features as their inputs to produce the volatility of the next day. Our findings revealed that not only the deep learning models improve the forecasts of GARCH-type models with any distribution assumption, the forecasts of GARCH-type models as informative features can significantly increase the predictive power of the studied deep learning models; namely, the DFFNN and LSTM models.
M Sannidhi D Hegde, Mahima Bhat, Usha Horapeti, D Manoj · 5 authors
Cryptocurrency, a virtual asset, is an exemplary phenomenon floating about in the present day. Since Cryptocurrency is considered as highly volatile, knowing its future is imperative for the investors to make wise decisions in their investment. This project aims at deploying a web application with an integrated chatbot plugin which focuses primarily on assisting crypto enthusiasts looking forward to invest in cryptocurrencies and with additional tabloids like bitcoin market predictions, price predictions and a survey done based on the decision of the government to implement a tax of 30% on crypto gains and to provide an analysis of how this affects the long term investors invested during bear cycle using the best suitable Machine Learning Algorithms to gain the highest percent of accuracies.
A virtual currency known as cryptocurrencies holds all business online. It’s virtual money that wouldn’t materialize like complicated conventional paper currency. Thus, this study emphasizes a distinction between distributed paper currency and cryptocurrencies, where these individuals may access information without outside interference. Because of its considerable market swings, such cryptocurrencies have an influence upon commerce as well as foreign diplomacy. Virtual currencies which are available in the market, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Terra (LUNA), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Tether (USDT), Binance coin (BNB), USD coin, XRP coin, Avalanche coin (AVAX) and Lite coin (LTC), etc. This study focussed on a detailed analysis of the literature about Machine Learning (ML) methods used for predictions. This proposed work also focused on implementing an efficient Machine Learning (ML)-based time series model for predicting BTC cryptocurrency prices. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting theory was established to accommodate the fluctuation of bitcoin prices and achieve great precision. The effectiveness of the LSTM in predicting the price of a cryptocurrency is demonstrated by this suggested study’s comparison between it and comparable time-series models.
The price of cryptocurrency is always volatile and is influenced by various factors like market returns, prices of stocks, gold, and correlation of prices of cryptocurrency. Modeling and forecasting the prices of cryptocurrencies and measuring the volatility with the GARCH specification (Engle, 1982) has become standard among researchers. Several applications and extensions of GARCH model is proposed by Bollerslev (1986). Later, an integrated GARCH model (Engle & Bollerslev, 1986) states that the persistence parameter is equal to one. A combination of short and long memory conditional models for the mean and the volatility to analyze crypto returns is done with the help of ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) and FIGARCH (Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic) Model. This paper intended to understand various mathematical models for volatility of crypto currencies and also to find research gaps in the existing literature. A comprehensive overview is the need of the study.
<p>We extend the Shariah-compliant digital assets and Islamic Fintech literature through exploring the time-frequency associations between the volatility index (VIX) and cryptocurrencies (both Islamic and traditional). Employing wavelet-based technique, we find that Islamic cryptocurrencies demonstrate low or no coherency with stock market volatility compared to traditional cryptocurrencies (except Tether) during the whole time and frequency bands, highlighting the hedging capabilities of Islamic cryptocurrencies. Tether also serves the same against VIX, as there is a low or favorable link between these variables. Finally, our findings would be prolific to digital currency traders and investors in designing the portfolio strategies.</p>
The current study aims to explore the dynamic connectedness between stock and cryptocurrency markets and to determine the role of cryptocurrencies in the stock market as a hedge, diversifier, or safe haven. The study uses daily data of four stock indices and six cryptocurrencies, covering a period of January 2016 to December 2022. The analysis is conducted using the ADCC-GARC method with the wavelet coherency. The results indicate both stock and cryptocurrency markets exhibit long-run volatility persistence. The properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Dogecoin, and Ripple vary between a range of hedges and diversifiers in different stock markets, which can change depending on market circumstances. However, only Tether has shown that it can act as a safe haven investment in all studied stock markets over time.
With growing interest toward investments in the cryptocurrency market, prediction of the volatility of the price increasingly becomes important. Given the popularity of social media activity to reflect market trends in recent years, sentiment analysis has been recognized as a great contributing factor to predict financial markets. Using a sample of Bitcoin and Ethereum trade data, this study intends to provide insights on the association between twitter activity about cryptocurrencies and fluctuations of their price. To this end, we implement regression analysis alongside Vector Autoregression method to examine to what extent sentiment-related measures are capable of explaining the volatility of the prices of cryptocurrencies and whether the mutual influence of sentiment and volatility improves the accuracy of the model. Results indicate that the accuracy of predictions vary across the two tested cryptocurrencies, and also two different lexicon approaches used to calculate sentiment scores.
Contemporarily, under the impacts of COVID-19 and regional conflicts with radicalness fiscal policy, the prices of cryptocurrency have been fluctuated dramatically. Among various types of cryptocurrency, Ethereum is one of the most volatility assets. In order to avoid risks as well as gain extra return in the crypto market, it is necessary to construct accurate prediction approach. In this paper, the Long Short-Term Memory algorithm will be used to predict the future price of Ethereum by learning Ethereum's past price direction data. price trend by learning Ethereum's past price trend data. Based on the analysis, the predicted values of the trained model fit well with the actual data, with the regression evaluation index R2 of 97.08% and MAPE of 6.89%. According to the results, it is feasible to predict the future price trend through the past price trend data. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the stochastic process in data training might lead to the instability of model performances. Hence, it is necessary to train the data several time to select the best models. Overall, these results shed light on guiding further exploration of cryptocurrency price forecasting in terms of the state-of-art neural networks.
People used to invest in the stock and fund markets in the past and now have paid more attention to cryptocurrencies’ market, in which Bitcoin is the most famous and classic underlying asset. In this research, in order to improve the effects of stock prediction, difference of close price and moving average lines will be used as the labels of ensemble learning models. With the predicting results of each label, formulas are used to derive the close price in the next day. The last results show that models have less errors as the moving average prices are used as labels. Based on the models built in this research, people manage to predict the prices’ trends of Bitcoin more accurately and make investment decisions that will yield additional returns.
A distributed ledger system is known as a block chain.Due to the frequent price changes of cryptocurrencies, they are by nature erratic.Hence, a platform was taken into consideration to monitor the growth of cryptocurrencies.The programme will keep track on bitcoin activity and provide information on value changes.In addition to leveraging an API to get the bitcoin data, we used several of the most well-known programming languages, like Python, to build the platform.The platform we created offers us data on the performance of crypto-currencies and has an intuitive user interface.The price changes from the previous day and the prior week are part of the daily updates to the cryptocurrency data that we get.A component of this is the value of cryptocurrencies.Making it simple for consumers to obtain cryptocurrency information was the main driver behind the development of this platform.Users may move between all of the pages with ease and no hassle thanks to the user interface (UI) we created.
Yakın geçmişte hayatımıza giren ve kısa zamanda finansal piyasalarda kendisine yer bulan kripto paralar, hem bir değişim aracı hem de bir yatırım aracı olarak kullanılmaktadır. Kripto paraların merkezi bir otoritenin kontrolünde olmaması bu araçların fiyatlarında dalgalanmaları beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu nedenle, akıllı bir tahmin modelinin geliştirilmesi, yatırım yapılacak finansal varlıkların seçimi ve yatırım kararlarının hayata geçirilmesi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Derin öğrenme ve yapay zeka, yatırım yapılacak olan kripto para birimi ve diğer yatırım araçlarının seçiminde kullanılmaktadır. Tekrarlayan Sinir Ağı (RNN), Uzun-Kısa Süreli Bellek (LSTM) ve Geçitli Yinelenen Birim (GRU) modeli gibi derin öğrenme modellerinin, kripto para birimi fiyat tahmininde geleneksel zaman serisi modellerinden daha iyi performans gösterdiği araştırmacılar tarafından kanıtlanmıştır. Bundan dolayı bu çalışmada, özel bir RNN yöntemi olan LSTM ve GRU’dan yararlanılarak, günümüzde piyasa değeri ve işlem hacmi en yüksek olan kripto paralardan Bitcoin, Ethereum ve Ripple’ın 30 günlük fiyat tahmininde bulunulmuştur. Araştırmanın sonucunda her iki modelde de en iyi tahmin sonucunu Bitcoin vermiştir. İkinci en iyi tahmin sonucu Ripple, sonrasında ise Ethereum için bulunmuştur. Kullanılan yöntemler karşılaştırıldığında ise MAPE performans ölçütüne göre en iyi tahmin sonucuna Bitcoin ve Ripple için GRU, Ethereum için ise LSTM modeli ile ulaşılmıştır.
P. Yuvarani, P Bharani, B Dharun, Savithramma P. Dinesh‐Kumar
Ethereum is one of a technology that allows us to create D-Applications and organizations, keep assets, transact, and communicate without being controlled by a central authority. Investing in cryptocurrencies is now a big business, with tremendous capital flow and billions of industries taking over what was formerly a small market. With this investment, it is critical to grasp the highs and lows of a certain cryptocurrency as well as the output provided by such decisions. Prediction of cryptocurrencies is concrete and needs a thorough comprehension of the daily movement of money. This paper comprises of cryptocurrency price prediction and analysis utilizing the FB-Prophet algorithm, using Ethereum as the cryptocurrency under consideration for analysis and prediction Ethereum. In this paper, we will anticipate the daily closing price series of the Ethereum cryptocurrency using pricing data from previous years (January 2020 to December 2021).
Cryptocurrencies are popular today even though they do not have a physical form with their high profit rates and increasing usage day by day. However, the volatility of cryptocurrencies is higher than physical currencies. These volatilities change with the effect of social media rather than changes in exchange rates of physical currencies. For this reason, in this study, using Twitter data, one of the most widely used social media tools, real-time analysis on the values of four cryptocurrencies with the highest market value and the change in the estimated success compared to classical approaches were examined. The basic steps of this study: Obtaining Twitter data and financial data, performing sentiment analysis using Twitter data, making predictions on MM-LSTM architecture. The approach is aimed to be a predictive method open to online learning. Various filter steps were applied to remove the effect of bot users on Twitter that could prevent the prediction performance on the created data set, and the effect of the method on accuracy rate was tried to be reduced by eliminating the activity of bot accounts.
Researchers put efforts into explanations of the momentum phenomenon and improvements of the momentum strategy since the emergence of momentum in 1993. Interested in anomalies appearing as exhibited in traditional asset markets, adequate studies are launched on the nascent phenomenon emergers in the last decade, the cryptocurrency market. Recent studies have shown that there is hardly any cross-sectional momentum in the cryptocurrency market. To explore the momentum anomaly additionally in the cryptocurrency market, this paper implemented a time-series momentum on cross-sectional winners for improvement. Previous studies have introduced detecting the turning point between long-term slow time-series factor and short-term fast time-series factor contributes to predicting the trend well. Furthermore, a threshold decided by a certain machine learning model suggests better performance. In this paper. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is utilized to learn the weights of time-series factors. The combination of cross-sectional momentum and time-series momentum shows advantages and the MLP learned weighted strategy is preferable.
Abstract: Bitcoin is one of the most popular and valuable cryptocurrency in the current financial market, attracting traders for investment and thereby opening new research opportunities for researchers. Countless research works have been performed on Bitcoin price prediction with different machine learning prediction algorithms. For the research: relevant features are taken from the dataset having strong correlation with Bitcoin prices and random data chunks are then selected to train and test the model. The random data which has been selected for model training, may cause unfitting outcomes thus reducing the price prediction accuracy.
Non-fungible token (NFT) bubbles are a problematic issue, and this study aims to predict NFT bubbles using an extended log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model. The classic LPPLS model targets the endogenous nature of bubbles caused by the mimetic behavior of investors without external influences; however, the extended model attempts to incorporate exogenous influences. First, we compare the performance of the two models for NFT price prediction. The exogeneous variable in the extended model is cryptocurrency volatility. Then, we calculate the bubble confidence using both models. The results show that the explanatory power and forecasting accuracy of the extended model are superior in all projects. We also find that the bubble confidence indicator reinforces the results of bubble prediction.
This paper studies the optimal liquidation of stocks in the presence of temporary and permanent price impacts, and we focus in the case of cryptocurrencies. We start by presenting analytical solutions to the problem with linear temporary impact, and linear and quadratic permanent impact. Then, using data from the order book of the BNB cryptocurrency, we estimate the functional form of the temporary and permanent price impact in three different scenarios: underestimation, overestimation and average estimation, finding different functional forms for each scenario. Using finite differences and optimal policy iteration, we solve the problem numerically and observe interesting changes in the optimal liquidation policy when applying calibrated linear and power forms for the temporary and permanent price impacts. Then, with these optimal policies, we identify optimal liquidation trajectories and simulate the liquidation of initial inventories to compare the performance among the optimal strategies under different parametrizations and against a naive strategy. Finally, we characterize the optimal policies based on the functional form of the inventory and find that policies generating the highest revenue are those starting with a low trading rate and increasing it as time passes.
Blockchain research is now heavily centred on cryptocurrency, which has drawn the attention of financial academics. The availability of numerous types of data and a wealth of resources in bitcoin research facilitates the application of machine learning algorithms. However, a through analysis and a complete study of machine learning-based cryptocurrencies need further research. Cryptocurrency price prediction is the most pertinent research topic and the algorithms being used in cryptocurrency research are not unique. Various researcher are using combination of multiple machine learning algorithms. Therefore, in this study, the research related to cryptocurrency price prediction using machine learning is summarized along with prominent research challenges related to application of machine learning algorithms in cryptocurrency.
K. Ramani, M. Jahnavi, P. Jagadeesh Reddy, P. VenkataChakravarthi · 6 authors
The most popular cryptocurrency in the world is Bitcoin, which enables users to perform secure online transactions. When carrying out quick transactions, including cash transactions, this aids in keeping your money secret. Most of Consumers have been interested in the Bitcoin ecosystem in recent years. Predicting the bitcoin price accurately is a difficult task due to its high volatility. In this paper, we used deep learning and machine learning algorithms namely Long Short-Term Memory, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average , XGBoost, Prophet and Sentiment analysis were performed on bitcoin data.The algorithms were trained on live streaming finanacial data, and results are compared based on predicted metrics like Root mean Square Error,Mean Absolute Error and R2. The results show that Sentiment analysis combined with LSTM provide better performance in bitcoin price prediction of all other algorithms.
The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of an online stock trading platform in enhancing the financial literacy of those with limited financial knowledge. To this end, an intelligent system is proposed which utilizes social media sentiment analysis, price tracker systems, and machine learning techniques to generate cryptocurrency trading signals. The system includes a live price visualization component for displaying cryptocurrency price data and a prediction function that provides both short-term and long-term trading signals based on the sentiment score of the previous day’s cryptocurrency tweets. Additionally, a method for refining the sentiment model result is outlined. The results illustrate that it is feasible to incorporate the Tweets sentiment of cryptocurrencies into the system for generating reliable trading signals.
Ethereum has become a popular blockchain with smart contracts for investors nowadays. Due to the decentralization and anonymity of Ethereum, Ponzi schemes have been easily deployed and caused significant losses to investors. However, there are still no explainable and effective methods to help investors easily identify Ponzi schemes and validate whether a smart contract is actually a Ponzi scheme. To fill the research gap, we propose PonziLens, a novel visualization approach to help investors achieve early identification of Ponzi schemes by investigating the operation codes of smart contracts. Specifically, we conduct symbolic execution of opcode and extract the control flow for investing and rewarding with critical opcode instructions. Then, an intuitive directed-graph based visualization is proposed to display the investing and rewarding flows and the crucial execution paths, enabling easy identification of Ponzi schemes on Ethereum. Two usage scenarios involving both Ponzi and non-Ponzi schemes demonstrate the effectiveness of PonziLens.
Yingjie Zhu, Jiageng Ma, Fangqing Gu, Jie Wang · 10 authors
Bitcoin is one of the most successful cryptocurrencies, and research on price predictions is receiving more attention. To predict Bitcoin price fluctuations better and more effectively, it is necessary to establish a more abundant index system and prediction model with a better prediction effect. In this study, a combined prediction model with twin support vector regression was used as the main model. Twenty-seven factors related to Bitcoin prices were collected. Some of the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin prices were selected by using the XGBoost algorithm and random forest algorithm. The combined prediction model with support vector regression (SVR), least-squares support vector regression (LSSVR), and twin support vector regression (TWSVR) was used to predict the Bitcoin price. Since the model’s hyperparameters have a great impact on prediction accuracy and algorithm performance, we used the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) to optimize the hyperparameters of the model. The experimental results show that the combined model, XGBoost-WOA-TWSVR, has the best prediction effect, and the EVS score of this model is significantly better than that of the traditional statistical model. In addition, our study verifies that twin support vector regression has advantages in both prediction effect and computation speed.
Dzaki Mahadika Gunarto, Siti Saadah, Dody Qori Utama
Cryptocurrency price prediction is a crucial task for financial investors as it helps determine appropriate investment strategies and mitigate risk. In recent years, deep learning methods have shown promise in predicting time-series data, making them a viable approach for cryptocurrency price prediction. In this study, we compare the effectiveness of two deep learning techniques, the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), in predicting the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Results of this research show that the LSTM method outperformed the RNN method, obtaining lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for predicting both cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum. Specifically, the LSTM model had a RMSE of 0.061 and MAPE of 5.66% for predicting Bitcoin, and a RMSE of 0.036 and MAPE of 4.58% for predicting Ethereum. In this research, we found that the LSTM model is a more effective method for predicting cryptocurrency prices than the RNN model.