This paper investigates the evolving landscape of blockchain technology in renewable energy. The study, based on a Scopus database search on 21 February 2024, reveals a growing trend in scholarly output, predominantly in engineering, energy, and computer science. The diverse range of source types and global contributions, led by China, reflects the interdisciplinary nature of this field. This comprehensive review delves into 33 research papers, examining the integration of blockchain in renewable energy systems, encompassing decentralized power dispatching, certificate trading, alternative energy selection, and management in applications like intelligent transportation systems and microgrids. The papers employ theoretical concepts such as decentralized power dispatching models and permissioned blockchains, utilizing methodologies involving advanced algorithms, consensus mechanisms, and smart contracts to enhance efficiency, security, and transparency. The findings suggest that blockchain integration can reduce costs, increase renewable source utilization, and optimize energy management. Despite these advantages, challenges including uncertainties, privacy concerns, scalability issues, and energy consumption are identified, alongside legal and regulatory compliance and market acceptance hurdles. Overcoming resistance to change and building trust in blockchain-based systems are crucial for successful adoption, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts among industry stakeholders, regulators, and technology developers to unlock the full potential of blockchains in renewable energy integration.
Juraj Fabuš, Iveta Kremeňová, Natália Stalmašeková, Terézia Kvasnicová-Galovičová
This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders.
David Umoru, Malachy Ashywel Ugbaka, Francis Abul Uyang, Anake Fidelis Atseye · 13 authors
Globalization of the world economy has ensured flexible exchange rate mechanisms are executed thereby creating interdependence between and within the stock, digital currency and foreign exchange markets. Unfortunately, in emerging African countries, few studies conducted on volatility spillovers failed to adequately establish the significance and pattern of volatility spillover effects between returns on Bitcoin, stock markets and exchange rates. Hence, the need for this study using the diagonal-BEKK approach. While Botswana had an inverse pattern of spillovers, Tunisia had a positive pattern. Bitcoin and stock prices both had volatility spillover effects between each other in South Africa. South Africa and Namibia were the only countries with significant volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates. In countries like Kenya that had significant cross-volatility from the stock market to the exchange rate, news about the stock market stimulated reactions from investors that impacted volatility within the market. This volatility creates a multiplier effect on other economic circles of influence, depending on whether reactions are favourable to the market or unfavourable. When volatility in the Kenyan stock market rises, exchange rates in the next period experience less volatility, against the common theory that investors’ actions that cause volatility in the stock market cause withdrawal of investments.
Rui Dias, Rosa Galvão, Mohammad Iran, Paulo Alexandre · 5 authors
Background: Islamic cryptocurrencies are different from conventional ones in that they are backed by physical assets and are based on religious principles. After the COVID-19 pandemic, cryptocurrencies showed different behavior. However, there are not many studies on the efficiency, in its weak form, of these three typical families of cryptocurrencies (Islamic, green, and traditional). Purpose: This study compares the efficiency levels of Islamic cryptocurrencies (HelloGold), green cryptocurrencies (Cardano, NANO, Stellar, IOTA), and traditional cryptocurrencies (BTC and ETH) in the preceding period and during the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. Methods: This research will use Lo and Mackinlay's (1988) variance ratio methodology, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) model will be used. Results: The results indicate that the Islamic currency HGT and the green currency XNO display significant information asymmetries, rejecting the random walk hypothesis for various time intervals. Similarly, other green currencies such as XLM, ADA, and MIOTA, as well as ETH and BTC, reject the hypothesis to varying degrees and time intervals. Furthermore, the Islamic cryptocurrency (HelloGold) was anti-persistent before and during the conflict. The digital currencies ADA and BTC are persistent in both periods. ETH is in equilibrium in the pre-conflict period and becomes persistent during the conflict (0.50 - 0.56), while MIOTA and XLM are persistent during the pre-conflict period and shift to equilibrium during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finally, the XNO eco-currency shows the same anti-persistence characteristics during the two sub-periods. Conclusion: These results highlight the complexity and dynamics of cryptocurrency markets, indicating that different digital currencies can exhibit different temporal behaviors regarding information efficiency and persistence or anti-persistence patterns.
This chapter begins by showcasing how cryptocurrencies and blockchain are restructuring traditional stock market operations, creating new investment opportunities, and challenging established norms. The chapter also scrutinizes cryptocurrencies, recognizing them as versatile assets for diversifying portfolios, emphasizing the need for adaptable regulations and strategies. It explores their role as a unique asset class, appealing to both retail and institutional investors due to their potential for high returns and accessibility. Blockchain's disruptive potential is highlighted. Tokenization of assets enhances liquidity and democratizes investment access, and initial coin offerings (ICOs) are discussed as alternative fundraising methods. Recommendations are provided for stakeholders, regulators, businesses, etc. In conclusion, this chapter offers a comprehensive analysis of disruptive innovations' influence on stock markets, guiding readers through the evolving financial landscape, emphasizing the fusion of tradition and innovation.
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading cryptocurrencies have undergone significant price fluctuations, prompting widespread interest in the interdependence and spillover effects among cryptocurrency markets, as well as in identifying the key cryptocurrencies that drive market movements. This study contributes to the existing literature by utilising innovative vector wavelet coherence (VWC) and wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) frameworks to investigate the time-frequency co-movements among four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and Binance). By exploring the co-movements across multiple time scales over a period from 01/01/2020 to 10/04/2023 through continuous and discrete wavelet coherency analysis, we identify four key empirical findings. Firstly, the returns connectedness is stronger than the volatility connectedness. Secondly, high-frequency co-movements are more erratic and correspond to positive and negative unexpected news, while low-frequency co-movements vary with changes in US monetary policy. Thirdly, Tether and Binance exhibit the weakest returns and volatility connectedness with other cryptocurrencies. Lastly, Ethereum and Tether (not Bitcoin) are the primary cryptocurrencies that account for returns and volatility movements in the market. We discuss the implications of these findings for various stakeholders in cryptocurrency markets.
Laeeq Razzak Janjua, Iza Gigauri, Agnieszka Wójcik-Czerniawska, Elżbieta Pohulak-Żołędowska
This paper explores the relationship between Bitcoin returns, the consumer price index, and economic policy uncertainty. Employing the QARDL method, this study examines both short- and long-term dynamics between macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin returns. Our analysis of monthly time series data from January 2011 to November 2023 reveals that volatile US economic policy indicators, such as high economic policy uncertainty, volatile inflation, and rising interest rates, have recently exerted a negative impact on Bitcoin returns. This study shows that these results are true not only for traditional money but also for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, despite their cardinal features. Its decentralized nature, indicating that it has no physical representation, is not tied to any authority or national economy and relies on a complex algorithm to track transactions. Further, it yields volatile returns that depend on macroeconomic indicators.
The article aims to determine whether any hedging strategy against stock market risk, performed using instruments popular in the literature (gold, cryptocurrencies and oil), can beat index futures . As a hedging strategy, we understand a pair-wise portfolio consisting of a long position in stocks and a short position in a hedging instrument put together to minimise the portfolio variance. As a benchmark, we analyse optimal and naive hedging strategies with futures contracts. We demonstrate that, regardless of the stock market, the best hedging strategy focused on variance minimisation requires using index futures. Both strategies: the optimisation-based one and the naive one, beat the dynamic strategies utilising the remaining hedging assets. Therefore, from a risk-minimisation point of view, investors have no motivation to implement cryptocurrencies, gold or oil in hedging strategy against stock market risk. The results are robust with respect to hedging against tail risk.
S. Venkatesh, B Rashmitha, S Manjunadha, Md Junaid
A type of digital currency known as a cryptocurrency allows all transactions to be completed online. There is no hard cash version of this soft currency. We highlight that a decentralized currency differs from a centralized currency in the any user of a virtual currency can purchase services without the need for third parties to get involved. Due to its extreme price volatility, using these cryptocurrencies has an impact on trade and international relations. Moreover, the constantly fluctuating oscillations indicate the urgent need for a more precise method of predicting this price. Deep learning techniques that use effective learning models for training data, including the LSTM, GRU, and Feedback Neural Network, can be used to do this. Benchmark datasets are used to test the suggested strategy. That brings us to the neural network, one of the clever data mining technologies that researchers in many domains have been using for the past ten years. In the current economy, stock market data is essential. There are two types of forecasting methodologies: nonlinear models (ARCH, GARCH, Neural Network) and linear models (AR, MA, ARIMA, ARMA). To forecast a company's stock price based on past prices, we employed the Box Jenkins Model also known as ARIMA, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Feedback Neural Network also known as RNN.
Oktay Özkan, Salah Abosedra, Arshian Sharif, Andrew Adewale Alola
Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess the dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets i.e., Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500 from September 17, 2014 to October 11, 2022. The main motivation of the study relates to examining the dynamic volatility connectedness mentioned during periods of important events such as the recent coronavirus pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict which has shown the vulnerability of economic and financial assets, energy commodities, and clean energy. The novel Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach is employed for the investigation of the sample period mentioned. Empirical analysis reveals that both the total and net volatility connectedness between assets is time-varying. The highest connectedness among the assets is observed with the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and it increases with some important international events, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the referendum of Brexit, China–US trade war, and Brexit day. On average, the result shows that 32.8% of the volatility in one asset spills over to all other assets. The DCC-GARCH results also indicate that crude oil, bonds, and Bitcoin act as almost pure volatility transmitters, whereas the Dollar index, gold, and S&P500 act as volatility receivers. On the other hand, clean energy is found neutral to external shocks until the first quarter of 2020 and after that time, it starts to behave as a volatility transmitter. Based on the obtained results, we offer some specific policy implications that are beneficial to the US economy and other countries. Graphical Abstract Dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets (Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500)
Abstract This study examines the volatility spillovers in four representative exchanges and for six liquid cryptocurrencies. Using the high-frequency trading data of exchanges, the heterogeneity of exchanges in terms of volatility spillover can be examined dynamically in the time and frequency domains. We find that Ripple is a net receiver on Coinbase but acts as a net contributor on other exchanges. Bitfinex and Binance have different net spillover effects on the six cryptocurrency markets. Finally, we identify the determinants of total connectedness in two types of volatility spillover, which can explain cryptocurrency or exchange interlinkage.
Rihab Belguith, Yasmine Snene Manzli, Azza Béjaoui, Ahmed Jeribi
Given that the interconnections of NFT and DeFi digital assets with other stablecoins still not sufficiently studied, this paper is two-fold. We first examine the dynamic conditional correlation between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and NFTs and DeFi assets during the period 02/11/2021-05/01/2023. We thereafter assess the diversification potential of gold-backed cryptocurrencies against NFTand DeFi. To this end, we use the time-varying Student's copula to investigate the cross-markets linkages among different assets in dynamic fashion. We afterwards compute the optimal hedging ratios and effectiveness index to better explore the effectiveness of portfolio risk management. Our findings clearly show that the degree of dependence between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and NFT and DeFi tokens tends to vary over time. Our results also display that gold-backed cryptocurrencies act as suitable hedging (or diversifying) assets during normal times. Nevertheless, such assets can be considered as robust safe havens during the 2022 bear market for the most of NFT and DeFi assets. More specifically, PAXG and PMGT are found to be the best safe haven instruments for both NFT and DeFi tokens. DGX also serves as safe-haven assets for some NFT and DeFi assets, but with a lower risk-mitigation capacity compared to PAXG and PMGT. In most cases, DGX tends to act as a strong diversifier. Its hedging feature is only recorded for the NFT Protocol (xNFT) and the DeFi token Chainlink (LINK). Our results are of particular interest to investors and portfolio managers who search for safe havens to mitigate the risk of their NFT and DeFi portfolios.
Lien Thi Huong Nguyen, Hanh Hong Vu, Anh Phuong Le
Since its public introduction in 2009, Bitcoin has grown to be the most well-known cryptocurrency worldwide. There is still debate as to whether Bitcoin may be used as a hedge against other assets. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between Bitcoin and conventional commodity markets such as gold, crude oil, stock markets, and investor interest (quantified via Google Trends). In addition, the paper also tests Bitcoin’s safe haven role compared to other commodity markets. The Vector Autoregression model using daily database collected during the period 2013–2021 is employed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional commodity markets. The impulse response function is used to analyze Bitcoin price movements against economic shocks from gold, oil prices, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, the value-at-risk (VaR) model is used to test Bitcoin’s safe-haven property compared to other conventional commodity markets. The research results show that Bitcoin has negative impacts on gold, crude oil prices, and the stock market. Besides, Bitcoin responds negatively to a sharp decline in investor interest. Furthermore, the results of the VaR model show that Bitcoin is the second most volatile and risky asset, only after the crude oil market, and much riskier than gold. This result proves that Bitcoin cannot yet be considered a safe-haven instrument. These findings have several implications for investors and policymakers to minimize the risks associated with this cryptocurrency. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to send their sincere thanks to the Reviewers and Editorial Board of the Journal. Their valuable comments and helpful support helped improve the paper’s quality. No funding was granted for this study.
This research paper aims to conduct a time series forecasting of the bitcoin mean weighted price using the data from Kaggle. The data has a one-minute resolution and includes the following variables: timestamp, open, high, low, close, volume (BTC), volume (currency), and weighted price. Data analysis was achieved using R, a statistical computing and graphics programming language. The main findings of this research paper were that the bitcoin mean weighted price had a strong upward trend and exhibited high volatility over time. The time series also had weak seasonal and significant random components, indicating periodic fluctuations and noise in the data. Four years of data were used to estimate the mean change for the following month. The results indicate that while the expected value may rise somewhat, it will do so with significant variability and unpredictability. The main implications of this research paper were that there was a potential for profit or loss depending on the timing and strategy of buying or selling bitcoins.
Abstract: This chapter explores the profound impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the future of finance, focusing on its transformative effects across cryptocurrency, financial technology (FinTech), and broader economic outlooks. It delves into the integration of AI with blockchain to revolutionize cryptocurrency markets, enhance security, and innovative trading strategies. In the realm of FinTech, the chapter examines how AI-driven services such as robo-advisors and personalized banking are reshaping customer experiences and expanding financial inclusion. Additionally, it addresses AI's role in regulatory compliance, streamlining processes through RegTech, and ensuring adherence to financial regulations. The discussion extends to economic forecasting, where AI's predictive capabilities offer nuanced insights into market trends, inflation rates, and labor dynamics, contributing to informed policy-making and strategic investment planning. Challenges such as data privacy, security, and ethical considerations in AI deployment are critically analyzed to highlight the need for robust frameworks that ensure responsible use. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the collaborative effort required among technologists, financial experts, and policymakers to harness AI's potential responsibly, advocating for adaptive strategies that balance innovation with ethical considerations, thereby shaping a future where finance is more efficient, secure, and inclusive. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI),Future of Finance,Cryptocurrency Innovations,Financial Technology (FinTech),Economic Forecasting,Blockchain Technology,Robo-Advisors,Regulatory Technology (RegTech),Data Privacy in Finance,Algorithmic Trading,Financial Inclusion,Economic Trends Prediction,Ethical AI Use,Financial Security Measures and Investment Strategy.
Yiming Zhao, Sultan Salem, Areej M. AL-Zaydi, Jin-Taek Seong · 6 authors
Among the different financial sectors, the modeling and forecasting of log-returns of cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Numerous statistical models have been put forward to analyze the log returns of the cryptocurrency. However, as per our knowingness and immense literature search, we did not find published shreds of evidence about modeling cryptocurrency's log-returns while manipulating trigonometric-based statistical models. This paper provides a worthwhile endeavor to fill out this amusing research gap by manipulating a new trigonometric-based statistical methodology called the generalized sine-G family. Utilizing the generalized sine-G, a statistical model called the generalized sine-Logistic distribution is introduced. The generalized sine-Logistic distribution is applied for modeling the log-returns of two cryptocurrencies. Using certain decisive tools, it is observed that the generalized sine-Logistic is the best-suited distribution for modeling the given log-returns data sets. Additionally, this study uses various sophisticated and robust econometric techniques, such as the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Subset Selection, Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MSGARCH), and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) model with different distributions, to predict (in-sample) the log-returns data sets. The effectiveness of each method is assessed through a popular loss function known as the root-mean-square error (RMSE).
Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira, Pascal S. Thue
Purpose This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns. Findings The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term. Practical implications Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research. Originality/value This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.
The paper's recognition of the emerging phenomenon of cryptocurrencies. The rise of cryptocurrencies’ value on the market and the growing recognition around the arena open some demanding situations and concerns for business and commercial economics. The studies changed realized by way of the technique description, literature evaluation, and carried out research. This paper discusses the primary developments in the academic studies related to the Present Scenario of Cryptocurrency, a short overview of Cryptocurrency, cryptocurrencies through market capitalization, Cryptocurrencies Trending in Asia, Cryptocurrency in India, Cryptocurrency Exchanges, and cryptocurrency rules internationally. Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Virtual Currency, Blockchain *, Cyber Security, Blockchain Wallets, Distributed Ledger.
Abstract We analyze the connectedness between major cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens (NFTs) for different quantiles employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach. We find that lower and upper quantile spillovers are higher than those at the median, meaning that connectedness augments at extremes. For normal, bearish, and bullish markets, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin consistently remain net transmitters, while NFTs receive innovations. However, spillover topology at both extremes becomes simpler—from cryptocurrencies to NFTs. We find no markets useful for mitigating BTC risks, whereas BTC is capable of reducing the risk of other digital assets, which is a valuable insight for market players and investors.
Green finance is becoming more and more important as a way to fund environmentally friendly initiatives and lower carbon emissions. Green bonds have emerged as a significant financing tool in this context, and it is critical to understand how they interact with other components of the finance ecosystem, such as cryptocurrency and carbon markets, particularly during recent crises such as the COVID-19 outbreak and the Ukraine invasion. This study aims to empirically investigate the lead-lag associations between major cryptocurrency markets and green finance measured in terms of green bonds. For empirical estimation, the wavelet analysis and spectral Granger-causality test are employed to analyze the daily data, covering the period from 2018 to 2023. The results show that the correlation between the returns of the green bond market and cryptocurrencies is not stable over time, which rises from the short- to long-run horizon. However, the co-movements between these assets tend to be different and, in some cases, strong, especially during recent crises. Furthermore, the Granger causality test demonstrates the existence of a bi-directional causality between the prices of the cryptocurrencies and green bonds. These findings have significance for portfolio managers, investors, and researchers interested in investing strategies and portfolio allocation, suggesting that green markets may be used as a hedge and diversification tool for cryptocurrencies in the future.
Abstract This study examines the market efficiency in the prices and volumes of transactions of 41 cryptocurrencies. Specifically, the correlation dimension (CD), Lyapunov Exponent (LE), and approximate entropy (AE) were estimated before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we applied Student’s t -test and F -test to check whether the estimated nonlinear features differ across periods. The empirical results show that (i) the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected the means of CD, LE, and AE in prices, (ii) the variances of CD, LE, and AE estimated from prices are different across pre-pandemic and during pandemic periods, and specifically (iii) the variance of CD decreased during the pandemic; however, the variance of LE and the variance of AE increased during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the pandemic has not affected all three features estimated from the volume series. Our findings suggest that investing in cryptocurrencies is advantageous during a pandemic because their prices become more regular and stable, and the latter has not affected the volume of transactions.