This paper studies the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the US M2 money supply (M2SL) and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spanning January 2015 to April 2025. Utilizing a log-log model to focus on elasticity, this study employs a robust econometric methodology to examine the relationship between the US M2 money supply and Bitcoin (BTC) prices. The empirical findings confirm that the natural logarithms of M2 and BTC are integrated of order one, denoted as I (1). The Johansen test shows a long-run elasticity estimate of 2.65, suggesting that a 1% increase in the M2 money supply is associated with a 2.65% increase in the price of Bitcoin. The VECM analysis validates this long-run equilibrium, with a statistically significant error correction term (λ’ = -0.12), indicating that 12% of any deviation from the long-run path is corrected monthly. The cointegration tests for both variables provide strong evidence of a stable, long-run relationship. These results lead us to conclude that Bitcoin performs as a highly elastic asset with respect to changes in the M2 money supply.
Stablecoins face an unresolved trilemma of balancing decentralization, stability, and regulatory compliance. We present a hybrid stabilization protocol that combines crypto-collateralized reserves, algorithmic futures contracts, and cross-chain liquidity pools to achieve robust price adherence while preserving user privacy. At its core, the protocol introduces stabilization futures contracts (SFCs), non-collateralized derivatives that programmatically incentivize third-party arbitrageurs to counteract price deviations via adaptor signature atomic swaps. Autonomous AI agents optimize delta hedging across decentralized exchanges (DEXs), while zkSNARKs prove compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) regulations without exposing identities or transaction details. Our cryptographic design reduces cross-chain liquidity concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index: 2,400 vs. 4,900 in single-chain systems) and ensures atomicity under standard cryptographic assumptions. The protocol's layered architecture encompassing incentive-compatible SFCs, AI-driven market making, and zero-knowledge regulatory proofs. It provides a blueprint for next-generation decentralized financial infrastructure.
Purpose: To systematically review and synthesize existing empirical evidence on the multifaceted impacts of cryptocurrency integration on economic development and stability, aiming to determine whether its proliferation is predominantly beneficial or detrimental to sustainable economic systems. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The Scopus database was searched for empirical articles published between 2010 and 2024, focusing on keywords related to cryptocurrencies, economic development, economic growth, financial stability, financial risks, and financial inclusion. A multi-stage filtering process led to the inclusion of 21 relevant research articles. Results: The review reveals a predominant consensus (52.4% of reviewed articles) that cryptocurrency integration has a negative impact on economic growth and stability, primarily due to volatility, systemic risks, and its use in illicit activities. While some studies highlight potential for financial inclusion (e.g., SME financing) and as a hedge in specific contexts, the broader findings point to significant challenges for monetary policy, regulatory oversight, and conventional banking paradigms. The theoretical contribution: This study consolidates fragmented research into a coherent overview, highlighting the complex and often contradictory effects of cryptocurrencies. It contributes to understanding the challenges digital currencies pose to traditional economic theories and models of financial stability, particularly within the context of achieving sustainable development. Practical implications: The findings urge policymakers to develop robust, globally coordinated regulatory frameworks to mitigate systemic risks, combat financial crime, and protect consumers. Financial institutions must adapt their risk management strategies to accommodate digital assets. The study also highlights the importance of public financial literacy programs regarding cryptocurrency risks and advocates for considering the impacts of cryptocurrency in broader economic and sustainable development planning. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities; SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions.
Nguyễn Mậu Bá Đăng, Nguyễn Khánh An, Ngô Thái Hưng
This study aims to identify the price spillover effects between decentralized finance (DeFi) and the stocks of Vietnamese commercial banks using a quantile spillover index model (τ) during the period 2018–2025. The results indicate that the connectedness between DeFi and commercial bank stocks is insignificant under stable market conditions (τ = 0.50), but becomes stronger during bearish (τ = 0.05) and bullish (τ = 0.95) market conditions. Notably, DeFi acts as a recipient of shock spillovers from commercial bank stocks across all three market conditions. Furthermore, the time-varying spillover analysis reveals that the connection between DeFi and commercial bank stocks intensifies during periods of high financial market volatility. These findings serve as an important source of information for investors and policymakers amid the ongoing digital transformation of Vietnam’s banking sector.
This article examines the macroeconomic implications of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies using a simple real business cycle model. The analysis explores how agents allocate their portfolios among fiat money, CBDCs and private cryptocurrencies in response to inflation shocks and technological advancements in cryptocurrency production. The model predicts that rising consumer confidence can gen-erate inflationary pressures, prompting a shift towards private cryptocurrencies, which are insulated from inflation tax. Additionally, positive shocks in cryptocurrency production can lead to capital reallocation, reducing final goods production and causing a brief spell of recession. A central bank can remarkably counteract this recessionary effect of a crypto boom by lowering the policy rate. These findings highlight the complex interplay between digital currencies and monetary policy, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions using policy rate as a tool to balance economic stability and crypto innovation. JEL Classification: E50, E52, E58
A central challenge in economics and artificial intelligence is explaining how financial behaviors-such as credit, insurance, and trade-emerge without formal institutions. We argue that these functions are not products of institutional design, but structured extensions of a single behavioral substrate: reciprocity. Far from being a derived strategy, reciprocity served as the foundational logic of early human societies-governing the circulation of goods, regulation of obligation, and maintenance of long-term cooperation well before markets, money, or formal rules. Trade, commonly regarded as the origin of financial systems, is reframed here as the canonical form of reciprocity: simultaneous, symmetric, and partner-contingent. Building on this logic, we reconstruct four core financial functions-credit, insurance, token exchange, and investment-as expressions of the same underlying principle under varying conditions. By grounding financial behavior in minimal, simulateable dynamics of reciprocal interaction, this framework shifts the focus from institutional engineering to behavioral computation-offering a new foundation for modeling decentralized financial behavior in both human and artificial agents.
Andrey Urusov, Rostislav Berezovskiy, Anatoly Krestenko, А. А. Корнилов · 5 authors
Concentrated Liquidity Market Makers (CLMMs) represent a fundamental innovation in market microstructure, transforming liquidity provision from passive portfolio allocation to active risk management. This evolution creates significant challenges for performance evaluation and strategy optimization, particularly due to the absence of comprehensive historical liquidity data. We address these challenges through a novel methodological framework that reconstructs historical liquidity states from swap transaction data, enabling rigorous backtesting of dynamic liquidity provision strategies. Our parametric reconstruction method achieves high accuracy (approximation errors averaging around 2\%) without relying on historical liquidity snapshots, addressing a critical data gap in decentralized finance research. We apply this framework to evaluate tau-reset strategies--dynamic liquidity reallocation approaches that respond to market movements--across multiple Uniswap v3 pools. Using machine learning to optimize strategy parameters based on market conditions, we identify consistent outperformance (13--23\% higher fees) compared to uniform allocation benchmarks. Our analysis reveals important insights into the risk-return tradeoffs in automated market making, including the critical role of impermanent loss as a dominant risk factor and the effectiveness of asymmetric strategy modifications for capital preservation. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of market microstructure in decentralized exchanges, providing both methodological innovations for performance evaluation and practical insights for liquidity providers navigating this evolving financial landscape.
Hongzhe Wen, Songbai Li, Ronald Siu Man Lau, Jamie Zhang
With market capitalization exceeding USD250 billion by mid-2025, stablecoins have evolved from a crypto-focused innovation into a vital component of the global monetary structure. This paper identifies the characteristics of stablecoins from an analytical perspective and investigates the role of stablecoins in forming a hybrid monetary ecosystem where public (fiat, CBDC) and private (USDC, USDT, DAI) monies coexist. Through a number of econometric analysis models, we find that stablecoins maintain strong peg stability, while each type exhibiting distinctive responses to market variables such as trading volume and capitalization depending on the mechanisms behind. We also introduce a hybrid system design that proposes a two-layer structure, which private stablecoin issuers are backed by central bank reserves, ensuring uniformity, security, and programmability. This model takes advantages of both decentralized finance and payment innovation, while utilizing the Federal Reserve's institutional trust. A case study on the SVB-USDC de-peg event in 2023 illustrates how such a hybrid system could have prevented panic-induced instability through transparent reserves, secured liquidity, and interoperable assets. Through examination of the Dybvig model and simulation, we conclude that a hybrid monetary model not only enhances financial inclusivity, scalability, and dollar utility in digital ecosystems, but it also strengthens systemic resilience, offering a credible blueprint for future digital dollar architectures.
Ichsan Kurniawan, Made Sudiarta, Luh Mei Wahyuni, Ida Ayu Ketut Sumawidari · 7 authors
The rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) represents a transformative shift in the global financial landscape, challenging traditional financial models and offering new possibilities for a more inclusive and efficient financial system. This study aims to explore the opportunities and challenges that DeFi poses to the conventional financial sector, focusing on its impact on banking, credit systems, investments, and payment systems. A mixed-methods approach was employed, including secondary data analysis, expert interviews, and first-hand experience with DeFi protocols such as lending, borrowing, and arbitrage. The findings highlight the significant potential of DeFi in creating alternative financial models that can increase financial inclusion, enhance access to capital, and reduce transaction costs. Recent data indicates that the Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi platforms has surged to over $50 billion as of January 2025, reflecting growing adoption. Additionally, daily transaction volumes across major DeFi platforms have reached approximately $10 billion, with active users exceeding 4 million globally. However, the research also identifies critical challenges, including regulatory uncertainty, security vulnerabilities, and the complexity of DeFi platforms, which pose barriers to mainstream adoption. This paper contributes to the understanding of how DeFi can reshape the financial ecosystem, offering insights into its future potential, the risks involved, and the steps required to address the existing challenges. Furthermore, it underscores the need for ongoing research into the regulatory aspects of DeFi and its collaboration with traditional financial institutions.
Blockchain innovation has empowered advancements like computerized monetary forms and shrewd agreements, adding to the rise of national bank computerized monetary forms (CBDCs). Nonetheless, the connection among CBDCs and cryptographic forms of money in developing business sector economies remains deficiently examined. This paper presents Another Keynesian Unique Stochastic General Harmony (NKDSGE) model to investigate the impacts of CBDCs and digital currencies in an open economy setting, explicitly for developing business sectors. In the model, cryptographic money fills in as a store medium inside the financial area, equipped for tolerating stores from abroad, while CBDC capabilities as a device for installments and reserve funds. The investigation discovers that digital money significantly affects banking activities and unfamiliar obligation elements, which are especially significant for arising economies. Furthermore, through ideal money related strategy reproductions, the paper shows that an adaptable CBDC rate can assist with changing financial approach reactions, working close by conventional measures to accomplish national bank targets. These outcomes offer significant experiences into coordinating CBDCs and cryptographic forms of money inside financial frameworks in developing business sectors.
This paper explores temporal coordination mechanisms in market economies through the lens of Austrian Capital Theory, emphasizing how interest rates facilitate the alignment of complex intertemporal production plans across dispersed market participants. The study addresses the challenge of coordinating heterogeneous capital goods over time, a critical issue in dynamic economic systems where production spans multiple stages and horizons. Through a rigorous theoretical analysis and an extensive literature review, the research investigates the role of market processes in achieving this coordination, with a particular focus on how monetary policy influences these mechanisms. The analysis reveals that interest rates act as vital signals, aggregating dispersed knowledge and guiding entrepreneurial decisions to align production structures with consumers’ time-preferences. However, monetary interventions, such as interest rate manipulations, are shown to distort these signals systematically, contributing to malinvestment—where resources are misallocated to unsustainable projects—and overconsumption during business cycles. Empirical evidence from the 2002–2009 period, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary expansion, illustrates these effects, highlighting how negative real interest rates (2003–2005) falsified economic calculations, inflating household net worth by $21.7 trillion while reducing savings rates to below 1% by 2005, only to collapse by $13 trillion in 2008. This research synthesizes Austrian insights with emerging technological developments, particularly Web 3.0 technologies and decentralized systems like smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi), which may enhance market coordination by reducing reliance on central intermediaries and improving knowledge transmission. The originality lies in bridging classical economic theory with modern technological paradigms, offering a framework to assess how decentralized innovations can preserve Austrian principles of entrepreneurial discovery and spontaneous order. This theoretical analysis contributes to understanding the interplay between monetary policy, technology, and market dynamics, providing a foundation for future empirical studies on decentralized economic coordination.
The present contribution explores – for the first time in economic literature – the monetary experiment called Lugano’s Plan ₿ and conducted by the City of Lugano (Switzerland) since March 2022 consisting of a public-private partnership with a global player in the stablecoin market such as Tether. In addition to stimulating a vivacious public debate about payment methods and fostering educational initiatives, the City of Lugano has created LVGA, a local payment token based on blockchain technology, which represents de facto a stablecoin pegged to the Swiss franc. The present case study provides further insights into the local experience of Lugano and might represent an example of “best practices” to be further explored by the economic literature in the future.
Enforcing a delay between deposits and withdrawals within decentralized finance protocols may make them more secure but less composable. A delay makes flash loan attacks more expensive, but restricts interactions between protocols. In this work, we analyse public blockchain data to determine if this concern is warranted in practice. We measure the duration between corresponding direct deposit and withdrawal function calls across several decentralized finance protocols on Ethereum. We show that direct callers of DeFi protocols typically leave assets locked in these protocols for many blocks, meaning that artificial withdrawal delays are not likely to have a negative impact on user experience.
Abstract Blockchain-based emerging technologies such as decentralized finance (DeFi), cryptocurrencies, tokens, and smart contracts have introduced innovative frameworks for resource allocation and economic interactions. Ethereum, as the major technical network foundation of DeFi and tokenized assets, is becoming increasingly pivotal in facilitating an extension and alternative to traditional finance for many stakeholders, including those who are “unbanked”. Moreover, the recent transition of Ethereum from a proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism and the Shanghai upgrade may significantly impact Ether (ETH) distribution. However, the status quo and dynamics of wealth distribution, especially after these changes in governance structure, remain unclear. By utilizing a rich dataset spanning the entire Ethereum history from July 2015 to December 2024, we analyze the balances across address groups of different sizes and the role of key economic activities and infrastructure components within Ethereum, such as exchanges, DeFi platforms, and staking. To provide detailed insights into ETH’s distributional equality, our approach combines descriptive, longitudinal, and causal inference analyses; a complete enumeration of more than 98 million unique wallet addresses; and novel on-chain analysis. Our findings show a substantial concentration of ETH within a small fraction of addresses, with approximately 0.3% of wallets holding nearly 95% of the total supply, despite the majority of wallets holding less than 0.1% ETH. However, the ETH distribution broadly resembles wealth distributions in traditional economies, with a log-normal body and Pareto-like tails. We assert that previous studies have overstated the concentration of ETH. Additionally, our dynamic analysis reveals a nuanced trend toward less concentration over time, driven by market cycles, increasing staking participation, and reinvestment in DeFi. These results challenge the notion of pervasive centralization. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the current ETH distribution and its evolution over time. Therefore, this work provides an objective, data-driven basis for the ongoing discussion on wealth (in)equality in blockchain-based ecosystems, particularly in DeFi.
We analyze a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. When some bubbles burst, surviving ones gain value, offsetting losses from collapsed bubbles. This “compensation effect,” combined with diversification, enhances welfare. A portfolio of fragile bubbles may rival a single, stable bubble. The stationary equilibrium imposes a tight upper bound on bubble size, considering covariance structures, price fluctuations, and the emergence of new bubbles. These results have important policy implications, particularly for managing crypto ETFs and issuing CBDCs, highlighting the potential benefits of a diversified approach to fragile financial systems. • We study a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. • A bubble’s market size is driven by agents’ confidence, with greater confidence leading to larger bubbles. • When some bubbles burst, survivors appreciate in value, offsetting losses and mitigating welfare impacts. • A diversified portfolio of fragile bubbles such as a crypto ETF may rival a single, stable bubble thanks to this “compensation effect”.
We develop an economic model of a decentralized exchange with concentrated liquidity (e.g., Uniswap v3 and v4), with a particular focus on the economics of liquidity provision. We demonstrate that providing liquidity for a risky/risk-free asset pool is comparable to investing in a covered call, except that the call option therein is sold at intrinsic rather than market value. Hence, when providing liquidity, liquidity providers forgo the time premium of the call option in exchange for fees, and thus equilibrium liquidity provision decreases in the time premium. Finally, we provide an expression for equilibrium liquidity provision that is useful for empirical work. This paper has been This paper was accepted by Lin William Cong for the Virtual Special Issue on Digital Finance.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the current landscape of option trading platforms for cryptocurrencies, encompassing both centralized and decentralized exchanges. Option contracts in cryptocurrency markets offer functionalities akin to traditional markets, providing investors with tools to mitigate risks, particularly those arising from price volatility, while also allowing them to capitalize on future volatility trends. The paper discusses these applications of option contracts in the context of decentralized finance (DeFi), emphasizing their utility in managing market uncertainties. Despite a recent surge in the trading volume of options contracts on cryptocurrencies, decentralized platforms account for less than 1 % of this total volume. Hence, this paper takes a closer look by examining the design choices of these platforms to understand the challenges hindering their growth and adoption. It identifies technical, financial, and adoption‐related challenges that decentralized exchanges face and provides commentary on existing platform responses. Subsequently, the paper analyzes the impact of absent options markets on the inefficiencies of automated market maker liquidity. It examines historical on‐chain data for 14 ERC20 token pairs on Ethereum. The analysis shows 1143 instances in which deeper liquidity levels, as high as more, could have been achieved by establishing an options market.
Francesco Maria De Collibus, Carlo Campajola, Claudio J. Tessone
Abstract The transfer velocity of money is a macroeconomic quantity that measures the frequency of exchanges in an economy. For cryptoassets it can be exactly measured adopting a new approach, MicroVelocity. In this study we apply the framework to Ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, to investigate velocity and its top contributors and how they can be characterised in the Ethereum ecosystem. While the inequalities and heterogeneity in wealth are well known, we here find that the same inequalities occur as well for MicroVelocity distribution and that this inequality is not explained just by wealth, but rather by the behaviour and economic activity of each individual agent.
The blockchain technology, which first gained recognition for enabling cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, is now emerging as a transformative technology with applications extending far beyond digital currencies. Its decentralized, unchangeable, and transparent characteristics make it appropriate for a variety of fields, including as voting systems, healthcare, banking, supply chain management, identity verification, and intellectual property protection. In this research paper usage of blockchain technology in different areas is shown depicting the features such as operational efficiency, security, and transparency. It also explores the foundational role of blockchain in cryptocurrency, focusing on how the consensus mechanism, mining process, and cryptographic principles secure transactions and maintain decentralization. Through an analysis of real life use cases, this paper identifies the possibilities, shortcomings, and emerging potential of blockchain technology. Blockchain’s capacity to generate tamper-proof and decentralized digital accounts is perhaps its most groundbreaking feature. Blockchain’s future will keep unfolding as industries pursue higher levels of security and efficiency, as its role will expand.
David Cisar, Benjamin Schellinger, Jens-Christian Stoetzer, Nils Urbach · 7 authors
Abstract Corporate bonds are an attractive option for corporate financing. However, current bond markets face many challenges and inefficiencies, resulting in high transaction costs (TAC). In recent years, technological advancements like blockchain technology have enabled the possibility of reducing TAC in bond markets. Even though practice experiments with such solutions, academic literature lacks generic design knowledge under the TAC lens to design blockchain-based bonds. Thus, our research follows the design science research (DSR) paradigm to design and develop a bond prototype using the Ethereum blockchain protocol. Our results highlight the capability of blockchain-based bond markets to reduce TAC in the three dimensions of asset specificity, uncertainty, and transaction frequency. Further, our research provides design principles to contribute to both practice and the academic discourse on developing blockchain-based bond markets with reduced TAC.