Due to their rapid growth and deployment, Internet of things (IoT) devices have become a central aspect of our daily lives. However, they tend to have many vulnerabilities which can be exploited by an attacker. Unsupervised techniques, such as anomaly detection, can help us secure the IoT devices. However, an anomaly detection model must be trained for a long time in order to capture all benign behaviors. This approach is vulnerable to adversarial attacks since all observations are assumed to be benign while training the anomaly detection model. In this paper, we propose CIoTA, a lightweight framework that utilizes the blockchain concept to perform distributed and collaborative anomaly detection for devices with limited resources. CIoTA uses blockchain to incrementally update a trusted anomaly detection model via self-attestation and consensus among IoT devices. We evaluate CIoTA on our own distributed IoT simulation platform, which consists of 48 Raspberry Pis, to demonstrate CIoTA's ability to enhance the security of each device and the security of the network as a whole.
Bitcoin is one of the most prominent decentralized digital cryptocurrencies. Ability to understand which factors drive the fluctuations of the Bitcoin price and to what extent they are predictable is interesting both from the theoretical and practical perspective. In this paper, we study the problem of the Bitcoin short-term volatility forecasting based on volatility history and order book data. Order book, consisting of buy and sell orders over time, reflects the intention of the market and is closely related to the evolution of volatility. We propose temporal mixture models capable of adaptively exploiting both volatility history and order book features. By leveraging rolling and incremental learning and evaluation procedures, we demonstrate the prediction performance of our model as well as studying the robustness, in comparison to a variety of statistical and machine learning baselines. Meanwhile, our temporal mixture model enables to decipher the time-varying effect of order book features on volatility. It demonstrates the prospect of our temporal mixture model as an interpretable forecasting framework over heterogeneous Bitcoin data.
Laura Alessandretti, Abeer ElBahrawy, Luca Maria Aiello, Andrea Baronchelli
Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for $1,681$ cryptocurrencies for the period between Nov. 2015 and Apr. 2018. We show that simple trading strategies assisted by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms outperform standard benchmarks. Our results show that nontrivial, but ultimately simple, algorithmic mechanisms can help anticipate the short-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market.
Portfolio management is the decision-making process of allocating an amount of fund into different financial investment products. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. This paper presents a model-less convolutional neural network with historic prices of a set of financial assets as its input, outputting portfolio weights of the set. The network is trained with 0.7 years' price data from a cryptocurrency exchange. The training is done in a reinforcement manner, maximizing the accumulative return, which is regarded as the reward function of the network. Back test trading experiments with trading period of 30 minutes is conducted in the same market, achieving 10-fold returns in 1.8 month's periods. Some recently published portfolio selection strategies are also used to perform the same back tests, whose results are compared with the neural network. The network is not limited to cryptocurrency, but can be applied to any other financial markets.
Rakshit Agrawal, Luca de Alfaro, Vassilis Polychronopoulos
Many prediction problems can be phrased as inferences over local neighborhoods of graphs. The graph represents the interaction between entities, and the neighborhood of each entity contains information that allows the inferences or predictions. We present an approach for applying machine learning directly to such graph neighborhoods, yielding predicitons for graph nodes on the basis of the structure of their local neighborhood and the features of the nodes in it. Our approach allows predictions to be learned directly from examples, bypassing the step of creating and tuning an inference model or summarizing the neighborhoods via a fixed set of hand-crafted features. The approach is based on a multi-level architecture built from Long Short-Term Memory neural nets (LSTMs); the LSTMs learn how to summarize the neighborhood from data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique on a synthetic example and on real-world data related to crowdsourced grading, Bitcoin transactions, and Wikipedia edit reversions.
The problem of anomaly detection has been studied for a long time. In short, anomalies are abnormal or unlikely things. In financial networks, thieves and illegal activities are often anomalous in nature. Members of a network want to detect anomalies as soon as possible to prevent them from harming the network's community and integrity. Many Machine Learning techniques have been proposed to deal with this problem; some results appear to be quite promising but there is no obvious superior method. In this paper, we consider anomaly detection particular to the Bitcoin transaction network. Our goal is to detect which users and transactions are the most suspicious; in this case, anomalous behavior is a proxy for suspicious behavior. To this end, we use three unsupervised learning methods including k-means clustering, Mahalanobis distance, and Unsupervised Support Vector Machine (SVM) on two graphs generated by the Bitcoin transaction network: one graph has users as nodes, and the other has transactions as nodes.