Purpose This paper investigates the dynamic intercorrelation among cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and conventional financial assets (gold, oil and S&P 500). Design/methodology/approach The dynamic contemporaneous nexus has been analyzed using spillover index developed and extended by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) and Kyrtsou-Labys (2006) nonlinear causality tests. This study is implemented using the daily data spanning from January 2013 to December 2021. Findings First, using the spillover index, the authors find evidence that the S&P 500 was a net transmitter of volatility from oil and gold markets, but a net receiver of volatility from Bitcoin. Return spillovers from crude oil were transmitted first to gold, and Bitcoin markets and return spillovers from gold were transmitted to Bitcoin. Second, Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests provide us further insights into the lead-lag interconnections among the four key considered variables from the economic perspective. Specifically, a close inspection of these empirical results, the integration of the four key assets is significant. Similarly, price fluctuation dependency among Bitcoin, stock, gold and oil markets is generally minimal, but it strengthens throughout the COVID-19 period. Originality/value This paper is the first study employing the spillover index Diebold-Yilmaz alongside with Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests not only to capture the directional return spillover effects but also to highlight the potential presence of asymmetric causality relationships, nonlinear effects among assets under investigation that the previous studies have been ignored in these relations. Therefore, the main contribution of this article to the related literature in this field is significant.
Logistics plays a major part in any country's or region's economic success. Logistics performance depends upon the trade between other countries and urbanization. Urbanization has major role in logistics performance. However, being a significant energy user, logistics has negative consequences. As the logistics performance increases, carbon emissions increase as well because of more transportation and urbanization. Logistics performance has positive effects related to trade openness which reduces carbon emissions. As a result, it is necessary to understand function of logistics from both economic and environmental standpoint. Logistics performance is affected by urbanization of any region. The dataset for this research is made up of 10 Asian nations with 550 observations from 2010 to 2018 and is based on the theoretical underpinnings of impact of population affluence and technology (IPAT) and stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology (STIRPAT). After applying various tests like cointegration analysis, unit root test, cross-sectional dependence now long & short-term relation of variables is studied by Cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). As indicated by the discoveries, the logistic performance index (LPI) is basically effective on economic growth and carbon emissions, particularly when related to IPAT and STIRPAT. The findings are reviewed, and policy implications are offered, which say that current logistical infrastructure should be transformed to more environmentally friendly operations. Finally, the limits are acknowledged, as well as future research possibilities that should be pursued.
Abstract This paper analyses the return and realized volatility spillovers among Bitcoin, wilder hill clean energy index (ECO), S&P 500 as conventional stocks and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from 11/11/2013 to 30/09/2021. We investigate the transmission mechanism with Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto regression (TVP-VAR). Our findings indicate that stock markets such as clean energy and conventional transmit return shocks to Bitcoin and oil and receive volatility shocks from Bitcoin and oil. In addition, during non-crisis periods, Bitcoin and other financial markets are weakly related; but, during crisis periods, such as the great cryptocurrency crash in 2018 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, their connection increases significantly.
Purpose This paper aims to evaluate the hedging and safe haven properties of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities against the Indian equity market. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors estimate the hedging and safe haven abilities of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities for the Indian stock market and further verify whether such properties vary across the broad stock market indices and over the different degrees of market volatility. Second, the authors use the multivariate GARCH framework to calculate the dynamic hedge ratios and hedging efficiencies to compare the hedging properties of the alternative asset classes. Third, the authors verify the robustness of the general findings during the recent crisis emanating from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings Gold, cryptocurrency and most commodities have significant hedging abilities. Only natural gas, crude oil and aluminum, on the other hand, have safe haven property. Neither gold nor cryptocurrency qualifies as a safe haven asset. On the other hand, the financialization of the Indian commodities market provides a significant dividend to investors in terms of hedging and safe haven capabilities. The authors find the least negative hedge ratio and the highest positive hedging effectiveness for the stock-crude oil and stock-natural gas portfolios. The central observations of the paper remain immune to the COVID crisis. Originality/value Focusing on the Indian equity market, the paper compares the diversification abilities of traditional assets like gold with those of the modern class of assets, including cryptocurrency and other commodities.
In 2021, the climate action roadmap took the first step towards ensuring further tokenization of the security of green finance assets. This means the sensitive data will be replaced by non-sensitive equivalents and data security can be ensured. Through the application of tokenization, there is the automation of trading activities and further deployment of climate awareness actions that are funded by green finance. Green finance refers to credit facilities that are meant to assure the sustainability and protection of the environment. In the blockchain system, the technology promotes the tracking of the financial resources which plays a role in ensuring that once the funds have been allocated, they are utilized most efficiently. This article will explore the possibility of applying blockchain technology to promote sustainable development and how it will empower green finance. It can be concluded that blockchain technology fosters the authenticity and verification of green bonds.
This paper aims to find the connectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. Using daily data of three representative cryptocurrencies and three traditional assets over the period August 2015 to July 2021, this study explores the cross-sector connectedness between the cryptocurrencies market and the traditional assets market. The result shows that connectedness varies over time and External events (COVID-19, oil crisis) have a significant impact on connectedness. Furthermore, traditional assets are relatively independent of each other. Cryptocurrencies, as the main transmitter, can affect each other. During some COVID-19 pandemic, cryptocurrencies can give great shocks to the traditional assets market. The result sparks some new insights for investors and policymakers.
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the investment attractiveness of selected energy tokens from the point of view of the effectiveness measures applied to ordinary financial instruments. The authors also classify energy tokens among climate-aligned tokens and digital instruments of green investments financing. In this way, it was possible to compare energy tokens against traditional financial instruments. Furthermore, the authors attempted to investigate the relationship between the formation of returns of the researched energy tokens and the returns on stock and commodity markets. The results of the study indicate the low investment attractiveness of energy tokens compared to investments in stock markets, commodity markets and investments in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The research therefore indicates that buyers of energy tokens today should not be driven by investment or speculative motives but rather by a desire to obtain a means of clearing energy trading, or other utility.
This paper examines an essential methodology to evaluate the influence of the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict surprises and conception statements employed for the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatilities of energy commodity indices and Bitcoin. To assess analytically the unexpected component of COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict surprises, we use GARCH-DCC (1,1) model as established by Engle (2002) by incorporating a dummy variable which measures the surprise factor during the period of study from January 04, 2016, to April 04, 2022. The experimental outcomes of this paper suggest significant and considerable dynamic conditional correlation between energy commodities indices and Bitcoin if COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict shocks are incorporated in variance assessments. Additionally, these outcomes demonstrate the financialization phenomena of energy commodities indices and Bitcoin. We find that the dynamic conditional correlation between energy commodities indices and Bitcoin start to respond considerably more in the situation of Russia-Ukraine conflict shocks than COVID-19 surprises. Our outcomes contribute and improve to the research in financial and economic impacts of the recent epidemic and war between Russia and Ukraine with offering an experimental impervious that COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict give a bidirectional spillover effect on energy commodities and cryptocurrencies assets. This investigation has an essential and considerable concern for the officials and legislators and the portfolio risk administrators and executives.
This paper aims to analyze and compare the ability of bitcoin, gold, and dollar to diversify the risk of traditional market such as crude oil and stock markets. Specifically, we model the linkages between bitcoin, gold, dollar, crude oil, and stock markets using the GARCH‐EVT‐copula approach. The results show that the gold market is in the central position among these markets, which is consistent with the status of gold as a major safe asset. Before the outbreak of COVID‐19, bitcoin and the dollar also had the ability to diversify risks, although less effective than gold. However, during the COVID‐19 period, gold loses its dominant position and gold, bitcoin, and dollar can no longer act as a hedge. We measure the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of simulated portfolios constructed based on these five markets and use several backtesting methods to check the validity of the risk measures. The backtesting results show that our model can provide accurate risk measures before and within the COVID‐19 period, which may help investors and risk managers construct the optimal portfolios.
Stock market is susceptible to various external shocks for its tight dependence on economic fundamentals, financial speculation, and fragile emotions in massive traders, making it a very risky market for investors. In this paper, we aim to identify whether commonly recognized safe‐haven assets, that is, bitcoin, gold, and commodities, can provide investors with effective hedging utility in international stock markets, especially during periods of extreme market turbulence. By using the spillover index method based on the TVP‐VAR model, we find that firstly, bitcoin, gold, and commodities can only offer weak hedging effects on stock markets. Furthermore, their abilities to act as a safe haven are ranked as: commodities > gold > bitcoin. Secondly, in general, we have observed the increasing hedging ability of these safe‐haven assets in times of extreme market turmoil. Thirdly, among international stock and safe‐haven asset markets, the world and the developed stock markets act as the net spillover transmitters, while bitcoin, gold, and commodities are the net recipients. Lastly, the total spillover effects are time‐varying and increase significantly after the outbreak of extreme events.
Zynobia Barson, Peterson Owusu, Anokye M. Adam, Emmanuel Asafo‐Adjei
We employ a frequency‐dependent asymmetric and causality analysis to investigate the connectedness between gold and cryptocurrencies during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Hence, the variational mode decomposition‐based quantile regression is utilised. Findings from the study divulge that the variational mode functions at the lower quantiles are mostly significant and negative indicating that gold acts as a safe haven, a diversifier at most market conditions with insignificant coefficients, and a hedge at normal market conditions for most cryptocurrencies at various investment horizons. Particularly, hedging benefits mostly occur in the short‐ and medium‐term for Bitcoin and Ripple, as well as Bitcoin and Dogecoin in the long‐term with gold. This implies that there is high persistence in the hedging properties of gold with Bitcoin, followed by Ripple. We notice more significant relationship between gold and some cryptocurrencies in the long‐term of the COVID‐19 pandemic relative to the medium‐term emphasising the delayed responses of prices to information. Investors are recommended to be observant and mindful of investing in these markets due to the different dynamics.
The aim of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover connectedness between NFTs attention and financial markets. This paper firstly proposes a new direct proxy for the public’s attention in the NFT market: the non-fungible tokens attention index (NFTsAI), based on 590m news stories from the LexisNexis News & Business database and applies the historical decomposition to assess the historical variations of the NFTsAI. Then the empirical analysis is performed via a TVP-VAR volatility spillover connectedness model. The empirical results show that NFTsAI indicates NFT markets are dominated by cryptocurrency, DeFi, equity, bond, commodity, F.X. and gold markets. And NFT markets are volatility spillover receivers. In addition, NFT assets could impede financial contagion and have significant diversification benefits. Employing a panel pooled OLS regression model as a supplementary analysis and a GARCH-MIDAS model as a robustness test. This study reveals that NFTsAI has sufficient power to explain the return of NFT assets from a fixed effect perspective, and NFTsAI contains useful forecasting information for both short and long-term volatility of NFT markets, separately. The new NFTsAI and the empirical findings contain useful insights for risk-averse investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, academics and financial policy regulators.
The article aims to verify whether cryptocurrencies can hedge extreme price movements in Brent crude oil. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed that oil prices are heavily influenced by economic uncertainty and the mobility factor. We analyse Brent crude oil prices from February 10, 2020, to February 10, 2022. We consider Bitcoin, BNB, Ether, Tether, and USD Coin, the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, as possible hedges. We explore their potential to protect oil investments using two approaches. The first focuses on price movement, and the second one on minimizing portfolio volatility. We use three modelling techniques: asymmetric causality in prices, a threshold vector-autoregressive model for returns, and dynamic conditional correlation analysis. We show that while stablecoins provide the best protection against downward movements in oil prices, they do not reduce investment volatility.
Yu Wei, Yizhi Wang, Brian M. Lucey, Samuel A. Vigne
Several common properties shared by cryptocurrencies and precious metals, such as safe haven, hedge and diversification for risk assets, have been widely discussed since Bitcoin was created in 2008. However, no studies have explored whether cryptocurrency market uncertainties can help to explain and forecast volatilities in precious metal markets. By using the GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating cryptocurrency policy and price uncertainty, as well as several other commonly used uncertainty measures, this paper compares the in-sample impacts and out-of-sample predictive abilities of these uncertainties on volatility forecasts of COMEX gold and silver futures markets. The in-sample results demonstrate the significant impacts of cryptocurrency uncertainty on the volatilities of precious metal futures markets, and the out-of-sample evidence further confirms the superior predictive power of cryptocurrency uncertainty on volatility forecasting of the precious metal market. Our conclusions are robust through various model evaluation approaches based not only on predicting errors but also on forecasting directions across different forecasting time horizons.
COVID-19'un başlangıcı, 2020'nin belirleyici olayı haline geldi ve kripto para birimleri de dahil olmak üzere tüm dünyadaki finansal piyasaları etkiledi. Bu süreçte, altın ve diğer emtialar gibi güvenli bir liman olarak görülmeye başlanan kripto para birimlerine ve diğer dijital varlıklara yatırıma olan ilgi arttı. Bu amaçla bu çalışmada Covid-19 sürecinde, altın ve petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen şokların Bitcoin fiyatları üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Analizin sonucunda, uzun vadede altın fiyatlarında meydana gelen negatif şokların Bitcoin fiyatlarını olumlu etkilediği, petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen negatif şokların ise Bitcoin fiyatlarını olumsuz etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Uzun vadede altın ve petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen pozitif şokların ise Bitcoin fiyatları üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Kısa vadede ise hem altın hem de petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen pozitif şokların Bitcoin fiyatlarını olumlu etkilediği, negatif şokların ise olumsuz etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Bitcoin’in küresel yatırımcılar için finansal çeşitlendirmede ideal olabileceği ve yeni bir sanal altın olarak piyasalardaki yerini alabileceği görülmüştür.