Blockchain Papers

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Dec 11, 2015·Advances in computers
13 cites
Cryptocurrencies

Xun Yi, Xuechao Yang, Andrei Kelarev, Kwok‐Yan Lam · 5 authors

Kriptovalute su digitalni novac utemeljen na kriptografiji i decentraliziranom sustavu. Postoje samo u elektroničkom obliku kao jedinstveni digitalni novčići ("tokeni"). Iza njih ne stoji autoritet države niti ih je moguće svojevoljno proizvesti. Rad se fokusira na značajkama, postavkama, razvoju i svim međuodnosima važnih ekonomskih faktora koji utječu na kriptovalute. U prvom poglavlju navedena su obilježja kriptovaluta. Drugo poglavlje daje primjere i govori o primjeni kriptovaluta u svakodnevnom životu. U trećem poglavlju je raspravljano o trenutnim i budućim regulacijama najmoćnijih zemalja svijeta (G20) , kao i njihovoj zajedničkoj suradnji u želji za jedinstvenim i standardiziranim pravilima, a sve u svrhu što kvalitetnijeg nadzora nad kriptovalutama kako bi se spriječile malverzacije i zaštitili potrošači. Četvrto poglavlje govori o inicijalnoj ponudi kovanica, a peto poglavlje je namijenjeno sigurnosti kriptovaluta. Cilj istraživanja je utvrditi koliko je studentska populacija upoznata i usmjerena prema novim oblicima digitalnog novca, koje značajke kriptovaluta smatraju pozitivnima, a koje negativnima i u kojoj su mjeri investirali ili su spremni investirati dio svojih ulaganja u kriptovalute i sl. Metode istraživanja korištene u radu su kompilacija na temelju proučavanja postojeće literature o temi rada, prikupljanje i analiza podataka vezanih uz kriptovalute, ponajprije podataka vezanih uz cijene i tržišnu kapitalizaciju, anketiranje studenata Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci i metoda dedukcije putem koje su pokazane sve važne karakteristike i obilježja kriptovaluta. Na temelju provedene ankete u kojoj je sudjelovalo 90 studenata Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci zaključak toga dijela istraživanja je da je mlada populacija dobro upoznata s kriptovalutama i njenim glavnim značajkama, ali i određenim nedostatkom informiranosti o tehnologiji (trećina studenata nije čula za pojam "blockchain") i nedovoljnoj odlučnosti oko investiranja i trgovanja u kriptovalute. Povrh toga, dokazan je i negativan utjecaj hakerskih napada i određenih kriminalnih radnji, kao i nestabilnost tržišne cijene na povjerenje studenata, ali i ukupne populacije vezane uz globalni financijski sustav u kriptovalute. Ishod istraživanja omogućio je da zaključimo kako su kriptovalute trenutno u ranoj fazi razvoja i nisu se dovoljno implementirale za široku primjenu u trgovini roba i usluga ili općenito kao sredstvo razmjene. Faktor koji je uključen u istraživanje kako bi opisao veličinu, odnosno obujam neke kriptovalute je tržišna kapitalizacija u dolarima. Temeljna ideja ovog rada je informirati čitatelja o pozitivnim i negativnim značajkama koje se se vežu uz kriptovalute. Na taj način čitatelji će biti bolje informirani i educirani o potencijalnom riziku ulaganja u kriptovalute, kao i većoj razini zaštite prilikom posjedovanja neke digitalne valute.

Open access
35 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies
Spam and Phishing Detection
Original source
Oct 16, 2015·Journal of Institutional Economics
57 cites
Cigarettes, dollars and bitcoins – an essay on the ontology of money

J. P. Smit, Filip Buekens, Du Plessis

Abstract What does being money consist in? We argue that something is money if, and only if, it is typically acquired in order to realise the reduction in transaction costs that accrues in virtue of agents coordinating on acquiring the same thing when deciding what thing to acquire in order to exchange. What kinds of things can be money? We argue against the common view that a variety of things (notes, coins, gold, cigarettes, etc.) can be money. All monetary systems are best interpreted as implementing the same basic protocol. Money, i.e. the thing that we coordinate on acquiring in order to lower our transaction costs, is, in all cases, a set of positions on an abstract mathematical object, namely a relative ratio scale. The things that we ordinarily call ‘money’ are merely records of positions on such a scale.

Economic theories and models
Economic Theory and Institutions
Economic Theory and Policy
Original source
Sep 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
7 cites
Economics Beyond Financial Intermediation: Digital Currencies’ Potential for Growth, Poverty Alleviation and International Development

Saifedean Ammous

Bitcoin is the first technology for the final transfer of digital goods online, facilitating instant global payments without intermediation. Bitcoin’s operation is based on a distributed, decentralized, and transparent asset ledger that acts as an ongoing chain record of all transactions. The system issues coins to reward those who contribute processing power to the network’s operation. The possibilities created by this innovation are significant for the world’s poor, who could skip traditional political and financial institutions and move to digital currencies in the same way they have gone straight to using mobile phones and skipped landline telephones.

Open access
Economic Growth and Development
Economic Theory and Policy
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jul 2, 2015·Macroeconomic Dynamics
19 cites
OPTIMAL PAY-AS-YOU-GO SOCIAL SECURITY WITH ENDOGENOUS RETIREMENT

Koichi Miyazaki

This paper considers an overlapping-generations model with pay-as-you-go social security and retirement decision making by an old agent. In addition, the paper assumes that labor productivity depreciates. Under this setting, socially optimal allocations are examined. The first-best allocation is an
\nallocation that maximizes welfare when a social planner
\ndistributes resources and forces an old agent to work and
\nretire as she wants. The second-best allocation is an allocation that maximizes welfare when she can use only pay-as-you-go social security in a decentralized economy. The paper finds a range of an old agent’s labor productivity such
\nthat the first-best allocation is achieved in the decentralized economy. This differs from the finding in Micheland Pestieau [“Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model”, Annals of Economics & Finance, 2013] that the first-best allocation cannot be achieved in the decentralized economy.

Open access
2 source records
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
Global Health Care Issues
Original source
Jun 20, 2015·International Journal of Economic Sciences
137 cites
Does Bitcoin follow the hypothesis of efficient market?

Jakub Bartoš

Bitcoin has emerged as phenomenon of the financial markets as the currency without any central authority. Recent events of Bitcoin has risen question about its behavior and there is crucial question if the price of Bitcoin follows hypothesis of efficient markets. In this paper, there are introduced the main features of Bitcoin and analyzed its price behavior. We found out that price of the most famous cryptocurrency Bitcoin follows the hypothesis of efficient markets and it immediately react on publicly announce information. Furthermore, Bitcoin can be seen as standard economic good that is priced by interaction of supply and demand on the market. These factors can be driven by macro financial development or by speculative investors, but there weren’t found any significant impact of these factors on price of Bitcoin.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic theories and models
Digital Platforms and Economics
Original source
May 4, 2015
224 cites
Bitcoin Mining Pools: A Cooperative Game Theoretic Analysis

Yoad Lewenberg, Yoram Bachrach, Yonatan Sompolinsky, Aviv Zohar · 5 authors

Bitcoin is an innovative decentralized cryptocurrency whose core security relies on a “proof of work ” procedure, which requires network participants to repeatedly compute hashes on inputs from a large search space. Finding one of the rare inputs that generates an extremely low hash value is consid-ered a successful attempt, allowing miners to approve new transactions and, in return, to collect rewards in bitcoins. This reward allocation, which provides the incentive for miners to participate, is a random process with a large vari-ance. Miners who desire a steady income thus often par-ticipate in mining pools that divide among their members the earned rewards, and reduce this variance. Mining pools are slightly better at coordinating participants due to lower-latency communication, a fact which implies that they man-age to collect slightly higher rewards. We examine dynamics of pooled mining and the rewards that pools manage to collect, and use cooperative game the-oretic tools to analyze how pool members may share these rewards. We show that for some network parameters, es-pecially under high transaction loads, it is difficult or even impossible to distribute rewards in a stable way: some par-ticipants are always incentivized to switch between pools.

2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Auction Theory and Applications
Economic theories and models
Original source
Mar 22, 2015·Cato Journal
11 cites
The Bitcoin Revolution

Bennett T. McCallum

The likelihood of the Bitcoin system replacing the Federal Reserve as the main provider of money in the United States and the desirability of such a transformation are the topics of this article. (1) With respect to the first of these topics, one needs to consider how far the so-called Bitcoin Revolution has progressed by estimating the average volume of transactions conducted per time period by means of Bitcoin payments, and then compare recent values of that magnitude with the total volume per period of dollar payments in the United States. (2) Francois Velde of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has estimated that, as of late 2013, the average volume of bitcoin transactions per minute totaled less than four-tenths of 1 percent of average dollar transactions per minute--actually, not total dollar transactions but only the subset conducted by means of Visa credit card payments (Velde 2013). In the months since the publication of Velde's article the volume of bitcoin payments has been growing rapidly, but their quantitative extent is still negligible from a macroeconomic perspective. In fact, this 0.004 magnitude is quite close to the ratio implied by magnitudes of Bitcoin and Visa daily transactions averaged over the most recent 12 months as reported on August 7, 2014, by the coinometrics.com web site. These magnitudes are $57.3 million and $16,518 million, so the implied ratio is 0.00345. Alternatively, in terms of stocks, rather than transactions, the Ml measure of the U.S. money supply (currency plus demand deposits) is currently about $2,835 billion (as of August 7, 2014) with bitcoins worth $7.7 billion, for a ratio of 0.00272- again, of the same order of magnitude. Another way to express the point that Bitcoin is not at this time a quantitatively important money is to reflect on the economist's standard definition of money--namely, an entity that serves as a of exchange, store of value, and of account. (3) Doing so, one recognizes that some clarification in this common description is necessary to make it analytically coherent. First, traditional money is typically a tangible object (e.g., metallic coins, government issued currency, or legal claims to such coins or currency) and thus is not itself a of which is intangible. Indeed, careful terminology would replace unit of account with medium of account, a specified amount of which serves as the of account. (4) Also, it is necessary to recognize that in developed economies tangible money does not rank highly as a store of value. For example, in the United States, during the first quarter of 2014, aggregate assets of households and nonprofit organizations together totaled $95,549 billion whereas checkable deposits and currency holdings by these units came to only $1,096 billion (roughly 1/100 of their assets). (3) Much larger components of household plus nonprofit-organization wealth include the reported monetary value of houses, furniture, automobiles, etc. Some major categories are real estate ($22,820 billion), corporate equities ($13,502 billion), corporate and foreign bonds ($2,626 billion), and pension entitlements ($19,766 billion). Accordingly, it is the medium-of-exchange role that is the primary attribute that serves to define money. (6) But an important qualifier often made explicit is that money is a generally acceptable of exchange. By that standard bitcoins do not qualify as money. Indeed, for most members of the U.S. population there are very few, if any, of their basic payments that could be made using bitcoins. None of the foregoing arguments rule out the possibility that Bitcoin will become a major--or even the main--medium of exchange in the future. (7) But as of today it seems likely that for law-abiding U.S. citizens the practical attractions of Bitcoin are primarily as a financial investment with very high volatility and as a means of participating in an intellectually fascinating, avant-garde, and potentially revolutionary, social experiment. …

Economic Theory and Policy
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Economic theories and models
Original source
Mar 7, 2015·Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money
281 cites
Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges

Morten Brandvold, Péter Molnár, Kristian Vagstad, Ole Christian Andreas Valstad

No abstract is available for this record.

Open access
3 source records
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Economic theories and models
Original source
Mar 5, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Cryptocurrency Price Stability Using Seigniorage Shares, Decentralized Autonomous Reserve Bank, Bitcoin as Reserve Asset, and Proof-of-Payment

Ferdinando M. Ametrano

Bitcoin extreme deflationary price instability has hampered its usability, making it impractical for spot transactions and unserviceable for deferred payments. Ametrano (2014) has proposed as Hayek Money a cryptocurrency price stability paradigm of elastic non-discretionary monetary policy. An implementation using a dual asset ledger for stable coins and seigniorage shares is presented here. A DeCentralized Reserve Bank (as Decentralized Autonomous Organization) is introduced as active market agent using bitcoin as reserve asset to preserve price parity. The socially inefficient over-investment of seigniorage revenues in transaction verification can be avoided using proof-of-payment.This schema frees coins from any speculative value, thus favoring money velocity and increasing the number of transactions. Seigniorage shares are effectively to be considered as a participation in a distributed central bank: as such the owners are entitled to seigniorage revenues in exchange for being subjected to the losses associated to coin price stability defense, obliged to validation task duties, and in charge of price index observation.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·UVic’s Research and Learning Repository (University of Victoria)
0 cites
Stochastic growth models

Eric Foxall

This thesis is concerned with certain properties of stochastic growth models. A stochastic growth model is a model of infection spread, through a population of individuals, that incorporates an element of randomness. The models we consider are variations on the contact process, the simplest stochastic growth model with a recurrent infection. Three main examples are considered. The first example is a version of the contact process on the complete graph that incorporates dynamic monogamous partnerships. To our knowledge, this is the first rigorous study of a stochastic spatial model of infection spread that incorporates some form of social dynamics. The second example is a non-monotonic variation on the contact process, taking place on the one-dimensional lattice, in which there is a random incubation time for the infection. Some techniques exist for studying non-monotonic particle systems, specifically models of competing populations [38] [12]. However, ours is the first rigorous study of a non-monotonic stochastic spatial model of infection spread. The third example is an additive two-stage contact process, together with a general duality theory for multi-type additive growth models. The two-stage contact process is first introduced in \cite{krone}, and several open questions are posed, most of which we have answered. There are many examples of additive growth models in the literature [26] [16] [29] [49], and most include a proof of existence of a dual process, although up to this point no general duality theory existed. In each case there are three main goals. The first is to identify a phase transition with a sharp threshold or ``critical value'' of the transmission rate, or a critical surface if there are multiple parameters. The second is to characterize either the invariant measures if the population is infinite, or to characterize the metastable behaviour and the time to extinction of the disease, if the population is finite. The final goal is to determine the asymptotic behaviour of the model, in terms of the invariant measures or the metastable states. In every model considered, we identify the phase transition. In the first and third examples we show the threshold is sharp, and in the first example we calculate the critical value as a rational function of the parameters. In the second example we cannot establish sharpness due to the lack of monotonicity. However, we show there is a phase transition within a range of transmission rates that is uniformly bounded away from zero and infinity, with respect to the incubation time. For the partnership model, we show that below the critical value, the disease dies out within C log N time for some C>0, where N is the population size. Moreover we show that above the critical value, there is a unique metastable proportion of infectious individuals that persists for at least e^{\gamma N}$ time for some $\gamma>0$. For the incubation time model, we use a block construction, with a carefully chosen good event to circumvent the lack of monotonicity, in order to show the existence of a phase transition. This technique also guarantees the existence of a non-trivial invariant measure. Due to the lack of additivity, the identification of all the invariant measures is not feasible. However, we are able to show the following is true. By rescaling time so that the average incubation period is constant, we obtain a limiting process as the incubation time tends to infinity, with a sharp phase transition and a well-defined critical value. We can then show that as the incubation time approaches infinity (or zero), the location of the phase transition in the original model converges to the critical value of the limiting process (respectively, the contact process). For the two-stage contact process, we can show that there are at most two extremal invariant measures: the trivial one, and a non-trivial upper invariant measure that appears above the critical value. This is achieved using known techniques for the contact process. We can show complete convergence, from any initial configuration, to a combination of these measures that is given by the survival probability. This, and some additional results, are in response to the questions posed by Krone in his original paper \cite{krone} on the model. We then generalize these ideas to develop a theory of additive growth models. In particular, we show that any additive growth model, having any number of types and interactions, will always have a dual process that is also an additive growth model. Under the additional technical condition that the model preserves positive correlations, we can then harness existing techniques to conclude existence of at most two extremal invariant measures, as well as complete convergence.

Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
0 cites
The economic gains to accounting for fishery induced evolution

Amanda Faig, Faig, Amanda

Ecologists warn that the rapid evolution occurring as a result of high-intensity commercial fishing could have significant economic and ecological effects. So far, fishery managers do not take this rapid evolution (called fisheries-induced evolution or FIE) into consideration when determining fishery policy. I model the interactions between the genetics, population structure, and economics of the fishery in order to determine how beneficial altering the fishery managers decision framework to include fisheries induced evolution would be to fishery profit and yield. My model is based on North-East Arctic Cod, which are long lived and for which an abundance of information exists, including proof of FIE. I compare the steady state reached by a `myopic' fishery manager who sets effort and mesh size policy while ignoring evolution, to the steady state reached by a fishery manager who dynamically optimizes his strategy with the knowledge of how evolution will respond. This paper shows that accounting for evolution can increase steady state profits by 29-34%, however this benefit decreases and is eventually eliminated as the discount rate increases from zero. An important auxiliary benefit to accounting for evolution is the effect optimal management has on fishery biomass, maturation rates, and yield.

Open access
2 source records
Marine and fisheries research
Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·Digital Repository (National Repository of Grey Literature)
0 cites
Bitcoins - the use of virtual currency in today's economy

Jiří Páral

The main goal of this diploma thesis is to explore the area of virtual currency Bitcoin and assess the use of this currency in today's economy. Thesis first mentions the cryptocurrency market, the technology and other altcoins. It further analyzes the cryptocurrency Bitcoin in detail, its foundation, history and mining. The text also explores the volatility of this currency in the recent years, the question of regulation by states and technological threats to the network. In the final chapter diploma thesis examines the possibilities for individuals to obtain this currency and the use of Bitcoin by enterprises.

Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·DR-NTU (Nanyang Technological University)
0 cites
Bitcoin networks in international trade

Lim, Shian, Saw, Mei Chee, Yiap, Jin Cheng

This paper studies the impacts of Bitcoin networks in international trade and suggests the mechanisms through which the effects come into place. In this paper, we examine the networks effects promote trade by mitigating the informal barriers and the issue of whether the efficiency of the Bitcoin payment system would induce its users to trade more internationally. The study related to Bitcoin is still lacking, as data available is not very accessible and adequate, and the nature of price volatility leads people to make presumption that it is just a form of speculation. Gravity model approach is used in our regression. We found Bitcoin networks have significantly positive impacts on international trade. The aggregate effect is then further analyzed in accordance to industries to draw deeper insights. Given the findings, we could learn more about the effects of its community on international trade, as well as how the users are making use of Bitcoin, as a more efficient payment system.

Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Digital Platforms and Economics
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Crumbling of the Bitcoin Cookie

Sharan Bathija

No abstract is available for this record.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
0 cites
Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance

Pablo Ottonello

This dissertation contains three essays on Macroeconomics and Finance. The first chapter has been motivated by the fact that recoveries from financial crises are characterized by low investment rates and declines in capital stocks. The paper constructs an equilibrium framework in which financial shocks have a persistent effect on aggregate investment. The key assumption is that physical capital is traded in a decentralized market with search frictions, generating ``capital unemployment.'' After a negative financial shock, the share of unemployed capital is high, and the economy dedicates more resources to absorbing existing unemployed capital into production, and less to accumulating new capital. An estimation of the model for the U.S. economy using Bayesian techniques shows that the model can generate the investment persistence and half of the output persistence observed in the Great Recession. Investment search frictions also lead to a different interpretation of the sources of business-cycle fluctuations, with a larger role for financial shocks, which account for 33 percent of output fluctuations. Extending the model to allow for heterogeneity in match productivity, the framework also provides a mechanism for procyclical capital reallocation, as observed in the data. The second and third chapters focus on labor unemployment during financial crises. The second chapter uses a sample of 116 recession episodes in developed and emerging market economies to compare the labor-market recovery during financial crises with that of other recession episodes. It documents two new stylized facts. First, labor-market recovery from financial crises is characterized by either higher unemployment (``jobless recovery'') or a lower real wage (``wageless recovery''). Second, inflation determines the type of recovery: low inflation (below 30 percent annual rate) is associated with jobless recovery, while high inflation is associated with wageless recovery. The paper shows that this pattern of labor recovery from financial crises is consistent with a simple model in which collateral requirements are higher (lower) when a larger share of labor costs (physical capital expenditure) is involved in a loan contract. The third chapter paper conducts a quantitative study of the optimal exchange-rate policy in a small open economy that faces the ``credit access-unemployment'' trade-off: In the presence of nominal wage rigidity, exchange-rate depreciation reduces unemployment; in the presence of collateral constraints linking external debt to the value of income, exchange-rate depreciation tightens the collateral constraint and leads to higher consumption adjustment. It is shown that the optimal policy during financial crises generally features large currency depreciation, since welfare costs related to higher unemployment and lower consumption typically outweigh welfare costs associated with intertemporal misallocation of consumption. The optimal policy also implies a lower currency depreciation than that necessary to achieve full employment, which is consistent with a managed-floating exchange-rate policy, frequently observed during financial crises in emerging market economies. Sudden stops (or large current-account adjustments) are part of the endogenous response to large negative shocks under the optimal exchange-rate policy.

Open access
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
1 cites
Bitcoin: Its Economics and Financial Reporting

Boon Seng Tan, Kin‐Yew Low

There is yet any official guidance on the financial reporting of Bitcoin transaction from the standard setters as the crypto-currency become increasingly popular and tax accounting guidance begin to appear in 2014. Designed as a decentralized currency, Bitcoin will not become a reporting currency and will instead complement fiat money. We argue that the accounting principle of faithful representation requires interpreting the economic substance for financial reporting that varies with reporting entity: trading firms recognize Bitcoin like a foreign currency and measure the revenue, or expense, at the equivalent amount of the reporting currency; digital currency exchanges recognize Bitcoin as goods in line with tax accounting treatment. An Economica paper by Radford (1945) describing cigarette being used as commodity money in a POW camp has alluded to this economic basis. This paper applies accounting principle to a practical issue and contributes to the thinking process which may help standard setter issue an interpretation.

Open access
2 source records
Economic theories and models
Economic Theory and Policy
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
2 cites
Inverse Futures in Bitcoin Economy

Aleksey Bragin

Derivatives are financial instruments whose value depend on the values of other, more basic underlying variables. One of the most common and simple derivatives is a futures contract. This manuscript introduces the new kind of futures contracts called non-linear inverse futures contracts (inverse futures in short) firstly introduced by ICBIT trading platform specifically for Bitcoin trading and later picked up by major bitcoin trading platforms.

Open access
2 source records
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
20 cites
The Decision to Produce Altcoins: Miners' Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets

Adam Hayes

Bitcoin has become the de facto 'gold' standard among cryptocurrencies as it is the most widely accepted in commerce, has the largest mining network, and greatest volume of transactions. Because of this, miners of other SHA-256 cryptocurrencies will tend to convert those altcoins into bitcoin in order to transact in a meaningful way with the real economy. The result is that bitcoin mining regulates that of all other SHA-256 blockchains. Specifically, what matters is the expected number of bitcoins produced per day given a unit of hashing (mining) power, whatever the equivalence in the coin being mined. If mining for a different coin would yield a greater return in bitcoins at the margin (per day) for a miner, an apparent arbitrage opportunity will exist to direct mining effort at that cryptocurrency and subsequently exchange those for bitcoin. These opportunities, once taken, quickly eliminate the profitable arbitrage and appear to operate in a fairly efficient and predictable manner. A model is developed in this paper to formalize this process where cryptocurrency miners seeking to maximize production in terms of bitcoins earned in a day will exploit any such opportunities. If no such opportunities exist, they will simply revert to mining bitcoins directly. There are some important implications to this process, such as a tendency for cryptocurrencies to fall in price relative to bitcoin over time, and for changes in bitcoin mining difficulty to indirectly influence the market prices of altcoins. Finally, it seems that those undertaking this process of miners' arbitrage do so at the expense of speculators and noise traders who make decisions regarding buy and sell trades without the use of fundamental data. These participants generally have poor timing, follow trends, and over-react to good and bad news. Altcoins are produced by miners and subsequently offered for sale in the market in order to obtain bitcoins; meanwhile noise traders serve as the only bid-side to the market, on average.

Open access
3 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Digital Platforms and Economics
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
35 cites
Cryptocurrency Value Formation: An Empirical Analysis Leading to a Cost of Production Model for Valuing Bitcoin.

Adam Hayes

This paper aims to identify the likely determinants for cryptocurrency value formation, including for that of bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin’s growing popular appeal and merchant acceptance, it has become increasingly important to try to understand the factors that influence its value formation. Presently, the value of all Bitcoins in existence represent approximately $7 billion, and more than $60 million of notional value changes hands each day. Having grown rapidly over the past few years, there is now a developing but vibrant marketplace for bitcoin, and a recognition of digital currencies as an emerging asset class. Not only is there a listed and over-the-counter market for bitcoin and other digital currencies, but also an emergent derivatives market. As such, the ability to value bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies is becoming critical to its establishment as a legitimate financial asset.Using cross-sectional empirical data examining 66 of the most widely used cryptocurrencies, a regression model was estimated that points to three main drivers of cryptocurrency value: the level of competition in the network of producers, the rate of unit production, and the difficulty of algorithm used to “mine” for the cryptocurrency. These amount to relative differences in the cost of production of one digital currency over another at the margin, pointing to differences in relative cost of production – electricity goes in, cryptocurrency comes out. Using that as a starting point, a no-arbitrage situation is established for Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies followed by the formalization of a cost of production model to determine the fair value of a bitcoin.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·PLoS ONE
75 cites
Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights

Jonathan Donier, Jean‐Philippe Bouchaud

Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

Open access
4 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·SSRN Electronic Journal
35 cites
A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin

Adam Hayes

As bitcoin becomes more important as a worldwide financial phenomenon, it also becomes important to understand its sources of value formation. There are three ways to obtain bitcoins: buy them outright, accept them in exchange, or else produce them by 'mining'. Mining employs computational effort which requires electrical consumption for operation. The cost of electricity per kWh, the efficiency of mining as measured by watts per unit of mining effort, the market price of bitcoin, and the difficulty of mining all matter in making the decision to produce. Bitcoin production seems to resemble a competitive market, so in theory miners will produce until their marginal costs equal their marginal product. Break-even points are modeled for market price, energy cost, efficiency and difficulty to produce. The cost of production price may represent a theoretical value around which market prices tend to gravitate. As the average efficiency increases over time due to competition driving technological progress – as inefficient capital becomes obsolete it is removed while new capital replaces them – the break-even production cost of bitcoins denominated in dollars will fall. Increased efficiency, although necessary to maintain competitive advantage over other miners could serve to drive the value of bitcoin down, however adjustments in the mining difficulty and the regular halving of the block reward throughout time will tend to counteract a decreasing tendency in cost of production.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2015·Communications of the ACM
324 cites
Bitcoin

Feroz Ahmad Ahmad, Prashant Kumar, Gulshan Shrivastava, Med Salim Bouhlel

ON 12 JANUARY 2009 a pseudonymous entity signed a transaction that instructed a distributed network to transfer a small amount of digital currency to Hal Finney, one ofthe key figures of the cypherpunk movement. After a few minutes, the transaction was recorded on a distributed public ledger, permanently updating the balance ofbothparties. This transaction— the first Bitcoin transaction—marked the beginning of a new era of decentralized payment systems, ushering in a variety of financial Services that do not depend on any centralized clearinghouse or other financial middleman. Bitcoin is regarded by many as a powerful technological innovation that could disrupt many sectors, in the realm of finance and beyond. But the underlying technology on which the network operates, the Bitcoin blockchain can do much more than that. Just as the internet did in the early-1990s, blockchain technology carries with it a whole new range of promises concerning how decentralization can support and promote individual freedoms and autonomy. Blockchain proponents believe that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency platforms will revolutionize mechanisms of value exchange in the same way that the internet transformed information sharing, by providing a platform for people to exchange digital resources, in a secure and decentralized manner without the need to rely on any intermediary or trusted authority. But this revolutionary potential also carries with it serious implications for censorship, intellectual property, and the regulated flow of information. A blockchain is a decentralized database of transactions maintained by a distributed network of computers, which all contribute to the verification and the validation of transactions. Once accepted, these transactions are recorded inside a “block” of transactions, which incorporates a reference to previous blocks. This creates a long chain of blocks—a “blockchain”—that stores the history of all transactions in a chronological order. Every block contains information about a particular set of transactions, a reference to the preceding block in the blockchain, and the answer to a complex mathematical puzzle that is used to validate the data associated with that block. A copy of the blockchain is stored on every computer in the network, making it virtually impossible for anyone unilaterally to modify the data stored on this decentralized database: if anyone tries to modify any transaction the fraud will be immediately detected by all other network participants.

Open access
43 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Advanced Steganography and Watermarking Techniques
Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies
Original source