Payment channels secured with cryptocurrency as collateral enable users to make many transactions with few blockchain broadcasts. Networks of payment channels have emerged as a proposed solution to Bitcoin’s scaling problem. Since the proposal of the first payment channel network, the Lightning Network, alternatives promising significant improvements, such as the Sprites protocol, have been proposed. Without at-scale implementations to analyze in situ, it is difficult to make meaningful comparisons of payment channel network protocols. In order to bridge this gap, we introduce a new simulation framework that can be used to evaluate how different payment channel network protocols will perform in both the expected and worst cases. \n \nOur framework is generic and accommodates benchmarking across different variants of payment channel network protocols, network topologies, routing algorithms, and user behaviors. User spending behavior in our payment channel network simulator is generated based on behavioral modeling techniques used in credit card fraud research. Our simulation is the first payment channel network simulator to seed user behaviors with data from real-world credit card users. \n \nOur framework can be used to evaluate expected case performance and resiliency to attacks across different payment channel network protocols and routing algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through comparisons of the Lightning Network to Sprites. We also compare the proposed decentralized routing algorithm, Flare, to an ideal centralized routing algorithm. Our results reveal that if spending behaviors are similar to those of credit card users, scale-free network topologies achieve higher throughput and resiliency compared to small-world networks. We also confirm that the Sprites protocol enjoys numerous advantages over the Lightning Network including smaller durations, shorter path length payments, and greater resiliency, all of which are most significant in decentralized topologies using decentralized routing algorithms.
Francisco Prieto‐Castrillo, Sergii Kushch, Juan M. Corchado
This work presents a theoretical and numerical analysis of the conditions under which distributed sequential consensus is possible when the state of a portion of nodes in a network is perturbed. Specifically, it examines the consensus level of partially connected blockchains under failure/attack events. To this end, we developed stochastic models for both verification probability once an error is detected and network breakdown when consensus is not possible. Through a mean field approximation for network degree we derive analytical solutions for the average network consensus in the large graph size thermodynamic limit. The resulting expressions allow us to derive connectivity thresholds above which networks can tolerate an attack.
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency attracting a lot of interest both from the general public and researchers. There is an ongoing debate on the question of users' anonymity: while the Bitcoin protocol has been designed to ensure that the activity of individual users could not be tracked, some methods have been proposed to partially bypass this limitation. In this article, we show how the Bitcoin transaction network can be studied using complex networks analysis techniques, and in particular how community detection can be efficiently used to re-identify multiple addresses belonging to a same user.
Abstract A blockchain can be considered a technological phenomenon that is made up of different interconnected and autonomous systems. Such systems are referred to here as cyber‐physical systems: complex interconnections of cyber and physical components. When cyber‐physical systems are interconnected, a new whole consisting of a system of systems is created by the autonomous systems and their intercommunication and interaction. In a blockchain, individual systems can independently make decisions on joint information transactions. The decision‐making procedures needed for this are executed based on fault‐tolerant communication and voting and consensus procedures, while the results of these decision‐making procedures are stored in distributed ledgers. Due to the intercommunication, interaction, and independent decision making by autonomous systems, the new whole of a blockchain is a complex entity. Complexity science rather than the usual reductionist scientific approach can help us better understand the behaviour of the new and continuously developing whole of a blockchain as a technological phenomenon.
Oct 1, 2017·2017 4th International Scientific-Practical Conference Problems of Infocommunications. Science and Technology (PIC S&T), Kharkov, Ukraine, 2017, pp. 456-459
In the work, a comparative correlation and fractal analysis of time series of Bitcoin crypto currency rate and community activities in social networks associated with Bitcoin was conducted. A significant correlation between the Bitcoin rate and the community activities was detected. Time series fractal analysis indicated the presence of self-similar and multifractal properties. The results of researches showed that the series having a strong correlation dependence have a similar multifractal structure.
Andrea Pinna, Roberto Tonelli, Matteo Orrù, Michele Marchesi
A Blockchain is a global shared infrastructure where cryptocurrency transactions among addresses are recorded, validated and made publicly available in a peer-to-peer network. To date, the best known and important cryptocurrency is the bitcoin. In this paper, we focus on this cryptocurrency and in particular on the modeling of the Bitcoin Blockchain by using the Petri Nets formalism. The proposed model allows us to quickly collect information about identities owning Bitcoin addresses and to recover measures and statistics on the Bitcoin network. By exploiting algebraic formalism, we reconstructed an Entities network associated to Blockchain transactions gathering together Bitcoin addresses into the single entity holding permits to manage Bitcoins held by those addresses. The model allows also to identify a set of behaviors typical of Bitcoin owners, like that of using an address only once, and to reconstruct chains for this behavior together with the rate of firing. Our model is highly flexible and can easily be adapted to include different features of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency system. By exploiting algebraic formalism, we reconstructed an Entities network associated to Blockchain transactions gathering together Bitcoin addresses into the single entity holding permits to manage Bitcoins held by those addresses. The model allows also to identify a set of behaviors typical of Bitcoin owners, like that of using an address only once, and to reconstruct chains for this behavior together with the rate of firing. Our model is highly flexible and can easily be adapted to include different features of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency system.
Cüneyt Gürcan Akçora, Yulia R. Gel, Murat Kantarcıoğlu
Bitcoin and its underlying technology, blockchain, have gained significant popularity in recent years. Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin to enable a secure, distributed platform without the need for central authorities, and blockchain has been hailed as a paradigm that will be as impactful as Big Data, Cloud Computing, and Machine Learning. Blockchain incorporates innovative ideas from various fields, such as public-key encryption and distributed systems. As a result, readers often encounter resources that explain Blockchain technology from a single perspective, leaving them with more questions than answers. In this primer, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of blockchain. We will begin with a brief history and introduce the building blocks of the blockchain. As graph mining is a major area of blockchain analysis, we will delve into the graph-theoretical aspects of Blockchain technology. We will also discuss the future of blockchain and explain how extensions such as smart contracts and decentralized autonomous organizations will function. Our goal is to provide a concise but complete description of blockchain technology that is accessible to readers with no prior expertise in the field.
Using 1-min returns of Bitcoin prices, we investigate statistical properties and multifractality of a Bitcoin time series. We find that the 1-min return distribution is fat-tailed, and kurtosis largely deviates from the Gaussian expectation. Although for large sampling periods, kurtosis is anticipated to approach the Gaussian expectation, we find that convergence to that is very slow. Skewness is found to be negative at time scales shorter than one day and becomes consistent with zero at time scales longer than about one week. We also investigate daily volatility-asymmetry by using GARCH, GJR, and RGARCH models, and find no evidence of it. On exploring multifractality using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, we find that the Bitcoin time series exhibits multifractality. The sources of multifractality are investigated, confirming that both temporal correlation and the fat-tailed distribution contribute to it. The influence of "Brexit" on June 23, 2016 to GBP--USD exchange rate and Bitcoin is examined in multifractal properties. We find that, while Brexit influenced the GBP--USD exchange rate, Bitcoin was robust to Brexit.
Abeer ElBahrawy, Laura Alessandretti, Anne Kandler, Romualdo Pastor‐Satorras · 5 authors
The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of \$100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, however, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1,469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and June 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, the market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.
Aurelio F. Bariviera, María José Basgall, Waldo Hasperué, Marcelo Naiouf
In recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Among them, the most widespread is Bitcoin. Given its novelty, this paper investigates some statistical properties of the Bitcoin market. This study compares Bitcoin and standard currencies dynamics and focuses on the analysis of returns at different time scales. We test the presence of long memory in return time series from 2011 to 2017, using transaction data from one Bitcoin platform. We compute the Hurst exponent by means of the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis method, using a sliding window in order to measure long range dependence. We detect that Hurst exponents changes significantly during the first years of existence of Bitcoin, tending to stabilize in recent times. Additionally, multiscale analysis shows a similar behavior of the Hurst exponent, implying a self-similar process.
Unlike prior studies that have mostly relied on ad hoc network structures, we use a data-driven methodology, namely the directed acyclic graph (DAG), to uncover the contemporaneous and lagged causal relations among Bitcoin and a set of financial assets. The DAG methodology allows the identification of networks of causality based on the observed correlations and partial correlations approach, without making a priori causal assumptions. The main results indicate that the Bitcoin market is quite isolated, especially during its bull market state. We also conduct forecast error variance decompositions and show that the influence of different financial assets on Bitcoin up to the 20-day horizon does not account for more than 10% of innovations in all cases.
Abstract The philosophy of blockchain technology is concerned, among other things, with blockchain ontology, how it might be characterised, how it is being created, implemented, and adopted, how it operates in the world, and how it evolves over time. This paper concentrates on whether Bitcoin/blockchain can be considered a complex system and, if so, whether it is a chaotic one. Beyond mere academic curiosity, a positive response would raise concerns about the likelihood of Bitcoin/blockchain entering a 2010‐Flash‐Crash‐type of chaotic regime, with catastrophic consequences for financial systems based on it. The paper starts by highlighting the relevant details of the Bitcoin/blockchain ecosystem formed by the blockchain itself, bitcoin end users (payers and payees), capital gains seekers, miners, full nodes maintainers, and developers, and their interactions. Then the Information Theory of Complex Systems is briefly discussed for later use. Finally, the blockchain is investigated with the help of Crutchfield's Statistical Complexity measure. The low non‐null statistical complexity value obtained suggests that the blockchain may be considered algorithmically complicated but hardly a complex system and unlikely to enter a chaotic regime.
Recent attacks on Bitcoin's peer-to-peer (P2P) network demonstrated that its transaction-flooding protocols, which are used to ensure network consistency, may enable user deanonymization---the linkage of a user's IP address with her pseudonym in the Bitcoin network. In 2015, the Bitcoin community responded to these attacks by changing the network's flooding mechanism to a different protocol, known as diffusion. However, it is unclear if diffusion actually improves the system's anonymity. In this paper, we model the Bitcoin networking stack and analyze its anonymity properties, both pre- and post-2015. The core problem is one of epidemic source inference over graphs, where the observational model and spreading mechanisms are informed by Bitcoin's implementation; notably, these models have not been studied in the epidemic source detection literature before. We identify and analyze near-optimal source estimators. This analysis suggests that Bitcoin's networking protocols (both pre- and post-2015) offer poor anonymity properties on networks with a regular-tree topology. We confirm this claim in simulation on a 2015 snapshot of the real Bitcoin P2P network topology.
Srijan Kumar, Francesca Spezzano, V. S. Subrahmanian, Christos Faloutsos
Weighted signed networks (WSNs) are networks in which edges are labeled with positive and negative weights. WSNs can capture like/dislike, trust/distrust, and other social relationships between people. In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting the weights of edges in such networks. We propose two novel measures of node behavior: the goodness of a node intuitively captures how much this node is liked/trusted by other nodes, while the fairness of a node captures how fair the node is in rating other nodes' likeability or trust level. We provide axioms that these two notions need to satisfy and show that past work does not meet these requirements for WSNs. We provide a mutually recursive definition of these two concepts and prove that they converge to a unique solution in linear time. We use the two measures to predict the edge weight in WSNs. Furthermore, we show that when compared against several individual algorithms from both the signed and unsigned social network literature, our fairness and goodness metrics almost always have the best predictive power. We then use these as features in different multiple regression models and show that we can predict edge weights on 2 Bitcoin WSNs, an Epinions WSN, 2 WSNs derived from Wikipedia, and a WSN derived from Twitter with more accurate results than past work. Moreover, fairness and goodness metrics form the most significant feature for prediction in most (but not all) cases.