Bitcoins and Blockchain technologies are attracting the attention of different scientific communities. In addition, their widespread industrial applications and the continuous introduction of cryptocurrencies are also stimulating the attention of the public opinion. The underlying structure of these technologies constitutes one of their core concepts. In particular, they are based on peer-to-peer networks. Accordingly, all nodes lie at the same level, so that there is no place for privileged actors as, for instance, banking institutions in classical financial networks. In this work, we perform a preliminary investigation on two kinds of network, i.e. the Bitcoin network and the Bitcoin Cash network. Notably, we analyze their global structure and we try to evaluate if they are provided with a small-world behavior. Results suggest that the principle known as 'fittest-gets-richer', combined with a continuous increasing of connections, might constitute the mechanism leading these networks to reach their current structure. Moreover, further observations open the way to new investigations into this direction.
The Blockchain paradigm provides a popular mechanism for establishing trust and consensus in distributed environments. While Blockchain technology is currently primarily deployed in crypto-currency systems like Bitcoin, the concept is also expected to emerge as a key component of the Internet-of-Things (IoT), enabling novel applications in digital health, smart energy, asset tracking and smart transportation. As Blockchain networks evolve to industrial deployments with large numbers of geographically distributed nodes, the block transfer and processing delays arise as a critical issue which may create greater potential for forks and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. Motivated by these issues, we develop stochastic network models to capture the Blockchain evolution and dynamics and analyze the impact of the block dissemination delay and hashing power of the member nodes on Blockchain performance in terms of the overall block generation rate and required computational power for launching a successful attack. The results provide useful insight in crucial design issues, e.g., how to adjust the `difficulty-of-work' in the presence of delay so as to achieve a target block generation rate or appropriate level of immunity from adversarial attacks. We employ a combination of analytical calculations and simulation experiments to investigate both stationary and transient performance features, and demonstrate close agreement with measurements on a wide-area network testbed running the Ethereum protocol.
Being the largest blockchain with the capability of running smart contracts, Ethereum has attracted wide attention and its market capitalization has reached 20 billion USD. Ethereum not only supports its cryptocurrency named Ether but also provides a decentralized platform to execute smart contracts in the Ethereum virtual machine. Although Ether's price is approaching 200 USD and nearly 600K smart contracts have been deployed to Ethereum, little is known about the characteristics of its users, smart contracts, and the relationships among them. To fill in the gap, in this paper, we conduct the first systematic study on Ethereum by leveraging graph analysis to characterize three major activities on Ethereum, namely money transfer, smart contract creation, and smart contract invocation. We design a new approach to collect all transaction data, construct three graphs from the data to characterize major activities, and discover new observations and insights from these graphs. Moreover, we propose new approaches based on cross-graph analysis to address two security issues in Ethereum. The evaluation through real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our new approaches.
We empirically verify that the market capitalizations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values for the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simple proportional growth with birth and death model previously employed to describe the size distribution of firms, cities, webpages, etc. We empirically validate the model and its main predictions, in terms of proportional growth (Gibrat's Law) of the coins and tokens. Estimating the main parameters of the model, the theoretical predictions for the power-law exponents of coin and token distributions are in remarkable agreement with the empirical estimations, given the simplicity of the model. Our results clearly characterize coins as being 'entrenched incumbents' and tokens as an 'explosive immature ecosystem', largely due to massive and exuberant Initial Coin Offering activity in the token space. The theory predicts that the exponent for tokens should converge to 1 in the future, reflecting a more reasonable rate of new entrants associated with genuine technological innovations.
We empirically verify that the market capitalisations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values, with the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simple proportional growth with birth & death model previously employed to describe the size distribution of firms, cities, webpages, etc. We empirically validate the model and its main predictions, in terms of proportional growth (Gibrat's law) of the coins and tokens. Estimating the main parameters of the model, the theoretical predictions for the power-law exponents of coin and token distributions are in remarkable agreement with the empirical estimations, given the simplicity of the model. Our results clearly characterize coins as being "entrenched incumbents" and tokens as an "explosive immature ecosystem", largely due to massive and exuberant Initial Coin Offering activity in the token space. The theory predicts that the exponent for tokens should converge to 1 in the future, reflecting a more reasonable rate of new entrants associated with genuine technological innovations.
Our paper presents on an information dissemination model for scholars on cryptocurrencies. The objectives are to review the existing information dissemination models, identify known factors influencing information dissemination process, and propose an information dissemination model for scholars on cryptocurrencies. The research questions are on why the epidemic models could be used for understanding cryptocurrencies, what are the known factors influencing the relevant information dissemination model, and how could information spreading model on cryptocurrencies work for scholars. We explored the epidemic models and their influencing factors on cryptocurrencies through a survey of literature. We found that the epidemic model can describe the information spreading for scholars on cryptocurrencies. We have added the activities triggering the S-I-E-R model.
Stjepan Begušić, Zvonko Kostanjčar, H. Eugene Stanley, Boris Podobnik
Detection of power-law behavior and studies of scaling exponents uncover the characteristics of complexity in many real world phenomena. The complexity of financial markets has always presented challenging issues and provided interesting findings, such as the inverse cubic law in the tails of stock price fluctuation distributions. Motivated by the rise of novel digital assets based on blockchain technology, we study the distributions of cryptocurrency price fluctuations. We consider Bitcoin returns over various time intervals and from multiple digital exchanges, in order to investigate the existence of universal scaling behavior in the tails, and ascertain whether the scaling exponent supports the presence of a finite second moment. We provide empirical evidence on slowly decaying tails in the distributions of returns over multiple time intervals and different exchanges, corresponding to a power-law. We estimate the scaling exponent and find an asymptotic power-law behavior with 2 < α < 2.5 suggesting that Bitcoin returns, in addition to being more volatile, also exhibit heavier tails than stocks, which are known to be around 3. Our results also imply the existence of a finite second moment, thus providing a fundamental basis for the usage of standard financial theories and covariance-based techniques in risk management and portfolio optimization scenarios.
Cryptocurrencies are becoming an attractive asset class and are the focus of recent quantitative research. The joint dynamics of the cryptocurrency market yields information on network risk. Utilizing the adaptive LASSO approach, we build a dynamic network of cryptocurrencies and model the latent communities with a dynamic stochastic blockmodel. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to uniformly estimate the latent group membership of cryptocurrencies consistently. We show that return inter-predictability and crypto characteristics, including hashing algorithms and proof types, jointly determine the crypto market segmentation. Based on this classification result, it is natural to employ eigenvector centrality to identify a cryptocurrency’s idiosyncratic risk. An asset pricing analysis finds that a cross-sectional portfolio with a higher centrality earns a higher risk premium. Further tests confirm that centrality serves as a risk factor well and delivers valuable information content on cryptocurrency markets.
One of the most popular platform based on blockchain technology is Ethereum. Internal activity on this public blockchain is analyzed both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. In a first part, it is shown that the creation of the Ethereum Alliance consortium has been a game changer in the use of the technology. In a second part, the network robustness against attacks is investigated from a graph point of view, as well as the distribution of internal activity among users. Addresses of great influence were identified, and allowed to formulate conjectures on the current usage of this technology.
Daniel Traian Pele, Miruna Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele
In this paper we investigate the statistical properties of cryptocurrencies by using alpha-stable distributions. We also study the benefits of the Metcalfe's law (the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system) for the evaluation of cryptocurrencies. As the results showed a potential for herding behaviour, we used LPPL models to capture the behaviour of cryptocurrencies exchange rates during an endogenous bubble and to predict the most probable time of the regime switching.
In recent years, with the rapid development and popularization of BitCoin, the research of blockchain technology has also shown growth. It has gradually become a new generation of distributed, non-centralized and trust-based technology solution. However, the blockchain operation is expensive and transaction is delayed. Take BitCoin as an example. On the one hand, a block is produced every ten minute. On the other hand, once the new block is generated, it takes a certain time to propagate world wide. The slow speed of propagation determines that BitCoin can not use too small block interval time. Ethereum also faces similar problems, so the concept of uncle block was introduced to reduce blockchain forks. This paper introduces a new tree structure based broadcast propagation routing model, providing a novel method to organize network nodes and message propagation mechanism. In oder to avoid the single node failure problem, the tree cluster routing is proposed. The research shows that the tree based routing can accelerate broadcast convergence time and reduce redundant traffic.
Cüneyt Gürcan Akçora, Matthew Dixon, Yulia R. Gel, Murat Kantarcıoğlu
A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In contrast to financial exchanges, Blockchain based crypto-currencies expose the entire transaction history to the public. By processing all transactions, we model the network with a high fidelity graph so that it is possible to characterize how the flow of information in the network evolves over time. We demonstrate how this data representation permits a new form of microstructure modeling - with the emphasis on the topological network structures to study the role of users, entities and their interactions in formation and dynamics of crypto-currency investment risk. In particular, we identify certain sub-graphs ('chainlets') that exhibit predictive influence on Bitcoin price and volatility, and characterize the types of chainlets that signify extreme losses.
We analyse the Tangle --- a DAG-valued stochastic process where new vertices get attached to the graph at Poissonian times, and the attachment's locations are chosen by means of random walks on that graph. These new vertices, also thought of as "transactions", are issued by many players (which are the nodes of the network), independently. The main application of this model is that it is used as a base for the IOTA cryptocurrency system (www.iota.org). We prove existence of "almost symmetric" Nash equilibria for the system where a part of players tries to optimize their attachment strategies. Then, we also present simulations that show that the "selfish" players will nevertheless cooperate with the network by choosing attachment strategies that are similar to the "recommended" one.
In blockchain networks adopting the proof-of-work schemes, the monetary incentive is introduced by the Nakamoto consensus protocol to guide the behaviors of the full nodes (i.e., block miners) in the process of maintaining the consensus about the blockchain state. The block miners have to devote their computation power measured in hash rate in a crypto-puzzle solving competition to win the reward of publishing (a.k.a., mining) new blocks. Due to the exponentially increasing difficulty of the crypto-puzzle, individual block miners tends to join mining pools, i.e., the coalitions of miners, in order to reduce the income variance and earn stable profits. In this paper, we study the dynamics of mining pool selection in a blockchain network, where mining pools may choose arbitrary block mining strategies. We identify the hash rate and the block propagation delay as two major factors determining the outcomes of mining competition, and then model the strategy evolution of the individual miners as an evolutionary game. We provide the theoretical analysis of the evolutionary stability for the pool selection dynamics in a case study of two mining pools. The numerical simulations provide the evidence to support our theoretical discoveries as well as demonstrating the stability in the evolution of miners' strategies in a general case.
Bitcoin is digital assets infrastructure powering the first worldwide decentralized cryptocurrency of the same name. All history of Bitcoins owning and transferring (addresses and transactions) is available as a public ledger called blockchain. But real-world owners of addresses are not known in general. That's why Bitcoin is called pseudo-anonymous. However, some addresses can be grouped by their ownership using behavior patterns and publicly available information from off-chain sources. Blockchain-based common behavior pattern analysis (common spending and one-time change heuristics) is widely used for Bitcoin clustering as votes for addresses association, while offchain information (tags) is mostly used to verify results. In this paper, we propose to use off-chain information as votes for address separation and to consider it together with blockchain information during the clustering model construction step. Both blockchain and off-chain information are not reliable, and our approach aims to filter out errors in input data. The results of the study show the feasibility of a proposed approached for Bitcoin address clustering. It can be useful for the users to avoid insecure Bitcoin usage patterns and for the investigators to conduct a more advanced de-anonymizing analysis.
Leonardo Ermann, Klaus M. Frahm, Dima L. Shepelyansky
We construct and study the Google matrix of Bitcoin transactions during the time period from the very beginning in 2009 till April 2013. The Bitcoin network has up to a few millions of bitcoin users and we present its main characteristics including the PageRank and CheiRank probability distributions, the spectrum of eigenvalues of Google matrix and related eigenvectors. We find that the spectrum has an unusual circle-type structure which we attribute to existing hidden communities of nodes linked between their members. We show that the Gini coefficient of the transactions for the whole period is close to unity showing that the main part of wealth of the network is captured by a small fraction of users.