Blockchain Papers

Michael Jones, Truong Luu, Binny M. Samuel

No abstract is available for this record.

Duy Thien An Nguyen, Ka Ching Chan

• This systematic mapping examines the current state of cryptocurrency trading research. • This study observes a recent increase in high-quality research and international collaboration in cryptocurrency trading. • This study notes a shift towards practical applications in cryptocurrency trading research, particularly in AI-driven prediction and automated trading. • This study highlights the diverse data types and inputs employed in cryptocurrency trading systems, with emphasis on the prevalent use of neural networks and deep learning algorithms. Cryptocurrency's unique features – decentralisation, anonymity, and diversification – have propelled it into the spotlight, attracting both investors and researchers despite its relative youth compared to traditional markets. This study utilizes a systematic mapping approach to examine the current state of cryptocurrency trading research. We are particularly interested in influential variables and technologies involved in cryptocurrency trading systems. By summarizing key findings on data, technology compatibility, and future research directions, this study serves as a starting point for new research activities in the field of cryptocurrency trading.

Arzu Özmerdivanlı

Modern finans teorisinin köşe taşlarından biri olan Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi, piyasada mevcut olan tüm bilginin kullanılması suretiyle piyasanın üzerinde getiri elde edilemeyeceğini öne sürmektedir. Bununla birlikte finansal piyasalarda yapılan çalışmaların birçoğu, yatırımcıların bazı dönemlerde normalin üzerinde getiri elde ettiğini gösteren bulgular ortaya koymaktadır. Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi ile çelişen ve bazı dönemlerde elde edilen getirilerin ve katlanılan riskin diğer dönemlere göre farklılaştığını ifade eden etkiler takvim anomalileri olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Takvim anomalileri içerisinde genellikle günlere, aylara ve yıllara göre farklılaşan etkiler incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Bitcoin ve Ethereum kripto para piyasasında takvim anomalilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda haftanın günü, yılın ayı ve yıl dönümü anomalileri kukla değişken ile temsil edilerek Bitcoin ve Ethereum için belirlenen TGARCH(1,1) ve EGARCH(2,2) modeline ilave edilmiş ve Bitcoin için 18.07.2010 – 17.05.2023 dönemini, Ethereum için 10.03.2016 – 17.05.2023 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler üzerinden analiz yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, Bitcoin ve Ethereum piyasasında haftanın günü ve yılın ayı anomalilerinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir.

Alessio Brini, Jimmie Lenz

No abstract is available for this record.

Phumudzo Lloyd Seabe, Claude Rodrigue Bambe Moutsinga, Edson Pindza

This study explores cryptocurrency investment strategies by adapting the robust framework of factor investing, traditionally applied in equity markets, to the distinctive landscape of cryptocurrency assets. It conducts an in-depth examination of 31 prominent cryptocurrencies from December 2017 to December 2023, employing the Fama–MacBeth regression method and portfolio regressions to assess the predictive capabilities of market, size, value, and momentum factors, adjusted for the unique characteristics of the cryptocurrency market. These characteristics include high volatility and continuous trading, which differ markedly from those of traditional financial markets. To address the challenges posed by the perpetual operation of cryptocurrency trading, this study introduces an innovative rebalancing strategy that involves weekly adjustments to accommodate the market’s constant fluctuations. Additionally, to mitigate issues like autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in financial time series data, this research applies the Newey–West standard error approach, enhancing the robustness of regression analyses. The empirical results highlight the significant predictive power of momentum and value factors in forecasting cryptocurrency returns, underscoring the importance of tailoring conventional investment frameworks to the cryptocurrency context. This study not only investigates the applicability of factor investing in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market, but also enriches the financial literature by demonstrating the effectiveness of combining Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional analysis with portfolio regressions, supported by Newey–West standard errors, in mastering the complexities of digital asset investments.

Ioannis Karakostas, Konstantinos Pantelidis

This study examines the dynamics between treasury and market capitalization in two Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) projects: OlympusDAO and KlimaDAO. This research examines the relationship between market capitalization and treasuries in these projects using vector autoregression (VAR), Granger causality, and Vector Error Correction models (VECM), incorporating an exogenous variable to account for the comovement of decentralized finance assets. Additionally, a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is employed to assess the impact of carbon offset tokens on KlimaDAO’s market capitalization returns’ conditional variance. The findings suggest a connection between market capitalization and treasuries in the analyzed projects, underscoring the importance of the treasury and carbon offset tokens in impacting a DAO’s market capitalization and variance. Additionally, the results suggest significant implications for predictive modeling, highlighting the distinct behaviors observed in OlympusDAO and KlimaDAO. Investors and policymakers can leverage these results to refine investment strategies and adjust treasury allocation strategies to align with market trends. Furthermore, this study addresses the importance of responsible investing, advocating for including sustainable investment assets alongside a foundational framework for informed investment decisions and future studies in the field, offering novel insights into decentralized finance dynamics and tokenized assets’ role within the crypto-asset ecosystem.

Akinlemi Olushola Olorunsheye, S. P. Meenakshi

Accurate prediction of the future movement of the financial instruments is a major factor that assures profitability and minimize risk in a volatile, unpredictable and complex financial and cryptocurrency market. Many researchers have proposed various ways to correctly forecast the future movements of these instruments with various technical indicators but losses are still in the increase.In this research, we have designed a price action based AI powered indicatorless algorithmic trading bot that can correctly predict the future direction of any financial instrument in the cryptocurrency and financial market with the capacity to ensure profitability while minimizing risk. The system is indicatorless, and uses price action and artificial intelligence algorithm for forecasting market movement and eventual execution of a buy or a sell trade with little or no human intervention.Our result shows an improved performance compared to others methods with a very low maximum risk drawdown of 1.06% with a profitability ratio of more than 297% over a 22 months period of back testing using EURO vs. USD (EURUSD) currency pair.

Alexey Rusakov, Alexander Shchapov, Nikita Grishin

This research paper is a comparative analysis of platforms for demo cryptocurrency trading. The main goal of the study is to evaluate the functionality of cryptocurrency demo trading platforms in terms of their ease of use, privacy, and flexibility in configuration. Additionally, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of each platform for teaching cryptocurrency trading and the similarity of demo trades to real trades, which undoubtedly is a crucial criterion in choosing a platform. The research methodology used in the study involves reviewing the official website of each service, as well as collecting and analyzing user feedback. Moreover, it includes a description of personal experience with the platforms. As a result, the following conclusions can be drawn: platforms for cryptocurrency trading vary, and it is necessary to choose a particular platform based on the goals of its use. Each platform has significant differences in interface and potential for use in educational purposes. The findings will be useful for both novice and experienced traders, as well as for the creation of educational courses on the subject. Furthermore, the description of pros and cons will assist in the creation of new similar platforms and the improvement of existing ones.

Takeshi Inuduka, Akihito Yokose, Shunsuke Managi

No abstract is available for this record.

Yu-Sheng Kao, Min-Yuh Day, Ke-Hsin Chou

No abstract is available for this record.

Swaty, R. Venugopal

This chapter explores how blockchain revolutionizes traditional stock markets by addressing challenges in settlement times, transparency, and fraud prevention. Emphasizing the transformative potential, the chapter highlights blockchain's distributed ledger systems, enabling near-instant settlements and reducing counterparty risk. Smart contracts automate compliance, streamlining processes, while asset tokenization introduces fractional ownership and liquidity. Real-world case studies illustrate successful applications in digital securities, proxy voting, and cross-border trading. The chapter underscores the crucial role of regulatory compliance, acknowledging challenges in global harmonization and privacy considerations. Anticipating future trends like decentralized exchanges and security token offerings, it emphasizes responsible adoption for a dynamic, efficient, and secure financial future.

Shreyansh Verma, Ruchi Atri

The advent of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has sparked a revolutionary Shift in the financial sector. This study sets out on a wide-ranging investigation to understand the nuanced dynamics, repercussions, and potential future paths of this shifting environment in the UK and USA. The primary goals of the research are to examine how cryptocurrencies affect financial markets and conventional banking systems; to examine how blockchain technology might be used in the financial sector; to assess policy and regulatory considerations; and to predict and plan for the future. This research digs into how cryptocurrencies have revolutionized the banking and finance sectors. Analysis of adoption rates, market volatility, and integration methods sheds light on the changing position of cryptocurrencies in investment portfolios, reconfiguration of asset classes, and coping mechanisms of conventional financial institutions. When looking at the financial sector as a whole, the transformational potential of blockchain technology becomes clear. The advent of DeFi, smart contracts, and asset tokenization offers new prospects to improve financial transactions, increase transparency, and broaden participation in the investment market. The research analyzes cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology from a policy and regulatory perspective. The delicate balancing act between stimulating innovation and guaranteeing consumer protection, market integrity, and financial stability is highlighted by a comparison of the regulatory methods adopted in the United Kingdom and United States, as well as proposals from international organizations. The research identifies potential future paths for these technologies and their implications. Opportunities and challenges that will influence the future of finance emerge, with a focus on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), sustainable blockchain solutions, and interdisciplinary collaborations. As this deep dive comes to a close, the transformational power of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology is highlighted. It sheds light on the forces that are altering the structures of the world’s financial markets, conventional banking structures, and regulatory frameworks. The findings and critical assessment stress the need for well-considered choices, ethical innovation, and interdisciplinary cooperation in order to succeed in an ever-changing environment. To further democratize access, improve transparency, and reshape the economic fabric of our planet, the future of finance resides at the confluence of tradition and innovation, where cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology exist. Cryptocurrency adoption has catalyzed changes in consumer behavior and investment patterns. While some view digital currencies as speculative assets, others embrace them as alternative forms of money and store of value. This diversity of perspectives underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of cryptocurrency adoption and its implications for financial systems. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to our understanding of the evolving relationship between cryptocurrency adoption and financial innovation. By elucidating the drivers, challenges, and implications of this phenomenon, policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers can make informed decisions to harness the transformative potential of digital currencies while mitigating associated risks. Cryptocurrency adoption and the financial innovations it has spurred are transforming the way we think about money and financial services. While challenges remain, the potential benefits of a more decentralized, efficient, and inclusive financial system are significant. As the technology matures, regulatory frameworks adapt, and user confidence grows, cryptocurrency adoption is likely tocontinue its upward trajectory. Cryptocurrency adoption and its associated financial innovations have the potential to usher in a paradigm shift in the way we manage and exchange value.

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira, Pascal S. Thue

Purpose This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns. Findings The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term. Practical implications Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research. Originality/value This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Alessio Brini, Jimmie Lenz

Abstract The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship between several market volatility drivers, such as daily leverage, signed volatility and jumps. Several known autoregressive model specifications are estimated over different market regimes, and results are compared to equity data as a reference benchmark of a more mature asset class. The panel estimations show that the positive market returns at the high-frequency level increase price volatility, contrary to what is expected from the classical financial literature. We attributed this effect to the price dynamics over the last year of the dataset (2022) by repeating the estimation on different time spans. Moreover, the positive signed volatility and negative daily leverage positively impact the cryptocurrencies’ future volatility, unlike what emerges from the same study on a cross-section of stocks. This result signals a structural difference in a nascent cryptocurrency market that has to mature yet. Further individual-level analysis confirms the findings of the panel analysis and highlights that these effects are statistically significant and commonly shared among many components in the selected universe.

Khirod Chandra Panda

Anomaly detection is critical in the financial sector, especially as financial environments evolve with increasing digitization, posing challenges for real -time anomaly detection. Recently, deep learning (DL) algorithms have emerged as promising solutions for this problem. This study presents a DL -based anomaly detection model utilizing various algorithms, including LSTM, GRU, and 1dCNN, applied to Tesla's stock market and Ethereum cryptocurrency data sets. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using grid search. Results show that the GRU algorithm achieves the highest prediction score in both datasets, while the 1dCNN algorithm performs the lowest. Additionally, anomaly values are graphically demonstrated using GRU for both datasets. Accurate bookkeeping is essential for legitimate business operations, yet the complexity of financial auditing requires new solutions. Supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are increasingly applied to detect fraud and anomalies in accounting data. This paper addresses the challenge of detecting financial misstatements in general ledger (GL) data, proposing seven supervised ML techniques, including deep learning, and two unsupervised ML techniques. Models are trained and evaluated on real -life GL datasets, demonstrating high potential in detecting predefined anomaly types and efficiently sampling data. Practical implications of these solutions in accounting and auditing contexts are discussed. The rapid development of computer networks brings both convenience and security challenges due to various abnormal flows. Traditional detection systems, like intrusion detection systems (IDS), have limitations, necessitating real -time updates to function effectively. With the advent of machine learning and data mining, new methods for abnormal network flow detection have emerged. This paper introduces the random forest algorithm for detecting abnormal samples, proposing the concept of an abnormal point scale to measure sample abnormality based on similarity. Simulation experiments demonstrate the superiority of random forest -based detection in terms of model accuracy and computing efficiency compared to other methods.

Salim Lahmiri

Abstract This study examines the market efficiency in the prices and volumes of transactions of 41 cryptocurrencies. Specifically, the correlation dimension (CD), Lyapunov Exponent (LE), and approximate entropy (AE) were estimated before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we applied Student’s t -test and F -test to check whether the estimated nonlinear features differ across periods. The empirical results show that (i) the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected the means of CD, LE, and AE in prices, (ii) the variances of CD, LE, and AE estimated from prices are different across pre-pandemic and during pandemic periods, and specifically (iii) the variance of CD decreased during the pandemic; however, the variance of LE and the variance of AE increased during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the pandemic has not affected all three features estimated from the volume series. Our findings suggest that investing in cryptocurrencies is advantageous during a pandemic because their prices become more regular and stable, and the latter has not affected the volume of transactions.

Abbas M. Ali, Abdullah Shah, Azaz Hassan Khan, Malik Umar Sharif · 8 authors

Software-based technical indicators have been widely used for the stock market forecasting, aiming to predict market direction. Even though many algorithms for the software based technical indicators are presented, there are almost no hardware implementations reported in the literature. In this paper, the hardware implementation is presented for three commonly used technical indicators: Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Aroon. Latency evaluation is conducted for Bitcoin and Ethereum within a single-day timeframe, utilizing the Xilinx Zynq-7000 programmable SoC XC7Z020-CLG484-1 platform. Additionally, various hardware/software (HW/SW) partitioning strategies are explored to leverage the flexibility of software alongside the performance advantages of hardware via the Zynq SoC platform. The results show that the best performing technical indicator is MACD with a speedup of 30 times over its software only counterpart. Furthermore, a hybrid design integrating multiple technical indicators is proposed, pairing MACD with RSI due to their competitive throughput values, differing by only 0.38 microseconds. This hybrid approach capitalizes on the parallel processing capabilities of hardware, enabling multiple systems to operate simultaneously.

Prosper Lamothe-López, Prosper Lamothe-Fernández, Leslie Rodríguez-Valencia

Cryptocurrencies have become an attractive asset class for all types of investors. A relevant question is whether their inclusion in portfolios improves their risk-return output. In this chapter, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of the inclusion of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the portfolio of a European investor. Additionally, we analyze the results of previous studies on this question under other assumptions. The empirical data are overwhelming regarding the attractiveness of Bitcoin and by extension other cryptocurrencies as an asset class. The important question is whether this appeal is temporary and will eventually disappear so investors do not have to worry about this new asset class. In the chapter we discuss this issue.

Alassane Diaw

Investors in cryptocurrencies have long called for direct exposure to stock markets, but the volatility of the asset and possible fraudulent manipulations raise concerns. This article compares the price predictions of spot bitcoin ETFs listed in Canada and Switzerland using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. The article also delves into the regulatory challenges preventing the commoditization of cryptocurrencies and favoring the futures markets channel. We investigated the bitcoin-futures ETF listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Notwithstanding that the forecasts obtained through the LSTM are better for Canadian and Swiss ETFs, neither the tracking differences nor the basis risk can be incriminated beyond a reasonable doubt. More importantly, our results show no evidence against trading cryptocurrencies in stock exchanges.

Vasileios Kochliaridis, A. Papadopoulou, Ioannis Vlahavas

No abstract is available for this record.

Lucas Mussoi Almeida, Fernanda Müller, Marcelo Perlin

No abstract is available for this record.

Sutta Sornmayura, Nichanan Sakolvieng, Kaimook Numgaroonaroonroj

Objective – This study aims to contribute to the field of cryptocurrency portfolio management and rebalancing strategies by empirically investigating the impact of different allocation frequencies and threshold percentages on the risk-adjusted returns of cryptocurrency portfolios. Methodology/Technique – Utilizing a simulation of 10,000 cryptocurrency portfolios comprising seven assets, including Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), Tether (USDT), Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Polygon (MATIC), this study examines and compares the effects of different allocation frequencies (daily, weekly, and monthly) in time-based rebalancing and various threshold percentages (5%, 10%, and 15%) in threshold-based strategies on the portfolios' risk-adjusted returns, using the Sharpe ratio. The performance of these strategies is also compared with a passive buy-and-hold strategy. Findings –The research reveals statistically significant differences in the risk-adjusted returns between the buy-and-hold strategy and the daily rebalancing and threshold-based strategies with 5% and 10% threshold percentages. The daily rebalancing strategy demonstrates a higher Sharpe ratio, while lower threshold percentages lead to better risk-adjusted returns. Novelty – These empirical findings, using a simulation of 10,000 cryptocurrency portfolios, provide valuable insights into optimizing cryptocurrency portfolio performance through rebalancing strategies. Additionally, they highlight the effectiveness of implementing rebalancing techniques in cryptocurrency portfolios, contributing to the understanding of rebalancing optimization in this domain. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: G11, G19. Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Mean-Variance Optimization; Portfolio Management; Rebalancing Strategies; Risk-Adjusted Returns Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Sornmayura, S; Sakolvieng, N; Numgaroonaroonroj, K. (2024). Optimizing Cryptocurrency Portfolios: A Comparative Study of Rebalancing Strategies, J. Fin. Bank. Review, 8(4), 01 – 16. https://doi.org/10.35609/jfbr.2024.8.4(1)

G. Kuzmin, A. Boulatov

This paper empirically estimates information asymmetry in cryptocurrency markets using the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) and Adjusted PIN metrics . These markets, characterized by a high proportion of algorithmic trading and large volumes of high-frequency data, present a promising environment for analyzing informed trading behavior. We introduce a modified estimation procedure for Adjusted PIN, addressing floating-point errors and issues with local extrema, thereby improving its accuracy compared to the traditional naive approaches com­monly used in the literature. Additionally, we propose an alternative trade aggregation method at higher frequencies than the conventional daily aggregation to enhance the efficiency of both PIN and Adjusted PIN models. Through analysis of both simulated and real data, we demonstrate that aggregating total buy and sell trades on a daily basis results in less meaningful estimates due to noisy input data, making it difficult to capture informed trader activity. The true optimal trade aggregation frequency is still to be further investigated, as increasing the frequency introduces heterogeneity in order imbalances, and the specific frequencies at which informed traders operate are still unknown. Finally, several empirical studies are conducted to evaluate the behavior of the metrics, revealing that illiquid cryptocurrencies exhibit relatively higher estimated probabilities of informed trading. This finding aligns with similar results observed in equity markets.

Shen-Ning Tung, Cheuk Yin Lee, Tai‐Ho Wang

We study how trading fees and continuous-time arbitrage affect the profitability of liquidity providers (LPs) in Geometric Mean Market Makers (G3Ms). We use stochastic reflected diffusion processes to analyze the dynamics of a G3M model under the arbitrage-driven market [Milionis et al. 2022a. “Automated Market Making and Loss-Versus-Rebalancing.” arXiv e-prints]. Our research focuses on calculating LP wealth and extends the findings of Tassy and White [Tassy and White. 2020. “Growth Rate of a Liquidity Provider's Wealth in xy = c Automated Market Makers.”] for the constant product market maker (Uniswap v2) to a broader range of G3Ms, including Balancer. This allows us to calculate the long-term expected logarithmic growth of LP wealth, offering new insights into the complex dynamics of AMMs and their implications for LPs in decentralized finance.