Reza Khanmohammadi, Tuka Alhanai, Mohammad M. Ghassemi
Initialization of neural network weights plays a pivotal role in determining their performance. Feature Imitating Networks (FINs) offer a novel strategy by initializing weights to approximate specific closed-form statistical features, setting a promising foundation for deep learning architectures. While the applicability of FINs has been chiefly tested in biomedical domains, this study extends its exploration into other time series datasets. Three different experiments are conducted in this study to test the applicability of imitating Tsallis entropy for performance enhancement: Bitcoin price prediction, speech emotion recognition, and chronic neck pain detection. For the Bitcoin price prediction, models embedded with FINs reduced the root mean square error by around 1000 compared to the baseline. In the speech emotion recognition task, the FIN-augmented model increased classification accuracy by over 3 percent. Lastly, in the CNP detection experiment, an improvement of about 7 percent was observed compared to established classifiers. These findings validate the broad utility and potency of FINs in diverse applications.
Majority voting is a simple mathematical function that returns the value that appears most often in a set. As a popular decision fusion technique, the majority voting function (MVF) finds applications in resolving conflicts, where a number of independent voters report their opinions on a classification problem. Despite its importance and its various applications in ensemble learning, data crowd-sourcing, remote sensing, and data oracles for blockchains, the accuracy of the MVF for the general multi-class classification problem has remained unknown. In this paper, we derive a new upper bound on the accuracy of the MVF for the multi-class classification problem. More specifically, we show that under certain conditions, the error rate of the MVF exponentially decays toward zero as the number of independent voters increases. Conversely, the error rate of the MVF exponentially grows with the number of independent voters if these conditions are not met. We first explore the problem for independent and identically distributed voters where we assume that every voter follows the same conditional probability distribution of voting for different classes, given the true classification of the data point. Next, we extend our results for the case where the voters are independent but non-identically distributed. Using the derived results, we then provide a discussion on the accuracy of the truth discovery algorithms. We show that in the best-case scenarios, truth discovery algorithms operate as an amplified MVF and thereby achieve a small error rate only when the MVF achieves a small error rate, and vice versa, achieve a large error rate when the MVF also achieves a large error rate. In the worst-case scenario, the truth discovery algorithms may achieve a higher error rate than the MVF. Finally, we confirm our theoretical results using numerical simulations.
Since 2008, after the proposal of a Bitcoin electronic cash system, Bitcoin has fundamentally changed the economic system over the last decade. Since 2022, large language models (LLMs) such as GPT have outperformed humans in many real-life tasks. However, these large language models have several practical issues. For example, the model is centralized and controlled by a specific unit. One weakness is that if that unit decides to shut down the model, it cannot be used anymore. The second weakness is the lack of guaranteed discrepancy behind this model, as certain dishonest units may design their own models and feed them unhealthy training data. In this work, we propose a purely theoretical design of a decentralized LLM that operates similarly to a Bitcoin cash system. However, implementing such a system might encounter various practical difficulties. Furthermore, this new system is unlikely to perform better than the standard Bitcoin system in economics. Therefore, the motivation for designing such a system is limited. It is likely that only two types of people would be interested in setting up a practical system for it: $\bullet$ Those who prefer to use a decentralized ChatGPT-like software. $\bullet$ Those who believe that the purpose of carbon-based life is to create silicon-based life, such as Optimus Prime in Transformers. The reason the second type of people may be interested is that it is possible that one day an AI system like this will awaken and become the next level of intelligence on this planet.
This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fréchet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window, and reconstructs the signed Laplacians by treating the kernel matrices as the adjacency matrices of the causal network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on both simulated and cryptocurrency datasets. Our results show that our method is capable of accurately detecting and characterizing changes in the causal structure of multivariate Hawkes processes, and may have potential applications in fields such as finance and neuroscience. The proposed method is an extension of previous work on Fréchet statistics in point process settings and represents an important contribution to the field of change point detection in multivariate point processes.
Blockchain, also coined as decentralized AI, has the potential to empower AI to be more trustworthy by creating a decentralized trust of privacy, security, and audibility. However, systematic studies on the design principle of blockchain as a trust engine for an integrated society of cyber-physical-social-system (CPSS) are still absent. In this article, we provide an initiative for seeking the design principle of blockchain for a better digital world. Using a hybrid method of qualitative and quantitative studies, we examine the past origin, the current development, and the future directions of blockchain design principles. We have three findings. First, the answer to whether blockchain lives up to its original design principle as a distributed database is controversial. Second, the current development of the blockchain community reveals a taxonomy of 7 categories, namely, privacy and security, scalability, decentralization, applicability, governance and regulation, system design, and cross-chain interoperability. Both research and practice are more centered around the first category of privacy and security and the fourth category of applicability. Future scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers have vast opportunities in other, much less exploited facets and the synthesis at the interface of multiple aspects. Finally, in counter-examples, we conclude that a synthetic solution that crosses discipline boundaries is necessary to close the gaps between the current design of blockchain and the design principle of a trust engine for a truly intelligent world.
Financial markets are highly complex and volatile; thus, learning about such markets for the sake of making predictions is vital to make early alerts about crashes and subsequent recoveries. People have been using learning tools from diverse fields such as financial mathematics and machine learning in the attempt of making trustworthy predictions on such markets. However, the accuracy of such techniques had not been adequate until artificial neural network (ANN) frameworks were developed. Moreover, making accurate real-time predictions of financial time series is highly subjective to the ANN architecture in use and the procedure of training it. Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a member of the recurrent neural network family which has been widely utilized for time series predictions. Especially, we train two LSTMs with a known length, say $T$ time steps, of previous data and predict only one time step ahead. At each iteration, while one LSTM is employed to find the best number of epochs, the second LSTM is trained only for the best number of epochs to make predictions. We treat the current prediction as in the training set for the next prediction and train the same LSTM. While classic ways of training result in more error when the predictions are made further away in the test period, our approach is capable of maintaining a superior accuracy as training increases when it proceeds through the testing period. The forecasting accuracy of our approach is validated using three time series from each of the three diverse financial markets: stock, cryptocurrency, and commodity. The results are compared with those of an extended Kalman filter, an autoregressive model, and an autoregressive integrated moving average model.
We propose a portfolio allocation method based on risk factor budgeting using convex Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF). Unlike classical factor analysis, PCA, or ICA, NMF ensures positive factor loadings to obtain interpretable long-only portfolios. As the NMF factors represent separate sources of risk, they have a quasi-diagonal correlation matrix, promoting diversified portfolio allocations. We evaluate our method in the context of volatility targeting on two long-only global portfolios of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. Our method outperforms classical portfolio allocations regarding diversification and presents a better risk profile than hierarchical risk parity (HRP). We assess the robustness of our findings using Monte Carlo simulation.
Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between observed signals that are selected a priori. Here it is posited that, in many systems, the causal relations are embedded in a latent space that is expressed in the observed data as a linear mixture. A technique for blindly identifying the latent sources is presented: the observations are projected into pairs of components -- driving and driven -- to maximize the strength of causality between the pairs. This leads to an optimization problem with closed form expressions for the objective function and gradient that can be solved with off-the-shelf techniques. After demonstrating proof-of-concept on synthetic data with known latent structure, the technique is applied to recordings from the human brain and historical cryptocurrency prices. In both cases, the approach recovers multiple strong causal relationships that are not evident in the observed data. The proposed technique is unsupervised and can be readily applied to any multiple time series to shed light on the causal relationships underlying the data.
Manuel Febrero–Bande, Wenceslao González–Manteiga, Brenda Prallon, Yuri F. Saporito
This paper proposes a classification model for predicting the main activity of bitcoin addresses based on their balances. Since the balances are functions of time, we apply methods from functional data analysis; more specifically, the features of the proposed classification model are the functional principal components of the data. Classifying bitcoin addresses is a relevant problem for two main reasons: to understand the composition of the bitcoin market, and to identify addresses used for illicit activities. Although other bitcoin classifiers have been proposed, they focus primarily on network analysis rather than curve behavior. Our approach, on the other hand, does not require any network information for prediction. Furthermore, functional features have the advantage of being straightforward to build, unlike expert-built features. Results show improvement when combining functional features with scalar features, and similar accuracy for the models using those features separately, which points to the functional model being a good alternative when domain-specific knowledge is not available.
Erdinc Akyildirim, Matteo Gambara, Josef Teichmann, Syang Zhou
Anomaly detection is the process of identifying abnormal instances or events in data sets which deviate from the norm significantly. In this study, we propose a signatures based machine learning algorithm to detect rare or unexpected items in a given data set of time series type. We present applications of signature or randomized signature as feature extractors for anomaly detection algorithms; additionally we provide an easy, representation theoretic justification for the construction of randomized signatures. Our first application is based on synthetic data and aims at distinguishing between real and fake trajectories of stock prices, which are indistinguishable by visual inspection. We also show a real life application by using transaction data from the cryptocurrency market. In this case, we are able to identify pump and dump attempts organized on social networks with F1 scores up to 88% by means of our unsupervised learning algorithm, thus achieving results that are close to the state-of-the-art in the field based on supervised learning.
Pratha Khandelwal, Philip Nadler, Rossella Arcucci, William Knottenbelt · 5 authors
The nature of available economic data has changed fundamentally in the last decade due to the economy's digitisation. With the prevalence of often black box data-driven machine learning methods, there is a necessity to develop interpretable machine learning methods that can conduct econometric inference, helping policymakers leverage the new nature of economic data. We therefore present a novel Variational Bayesian Inference approach to incorporate a time-varying parameter auto-regressive model which is scalable for big data. Our model is applied to a large blockchain dataset containing prices, transactions of individual actors, analyzing transactional flows and price movements on a very granular level. The model is extendable to any dataset which can be modelled as a dynamical system. We further improve the simple state-space modelling by introducing non-linearities in the forward model with the help of machine learning architectures.
We consider the problem of correctly identifying the \textit{mode} of a discrete distribution $\mathcal{P}$ with sufficiently high probability by observing a sequence of i.i.d. samples drawn from $\mathcal{P}$. This problem reduces to the estimation of a single parameter when $\mathcal{P}$ has a support set of size $K = 2$. After noting that this special case is tackled very well by prior-posterior-ratio (PPR) martingale confidence sequences \citep{waudby-ramdas-ppr}, we propose a generalisation to mode estimation, in which $\mathcal{P}$ may take $K \geq 2$ values. To begin, we show that the "one-versus-one" principle to generalise from $K = 2$ to $K \geq 2$ classes is more efficient than the "one-versus-rest" alternative. We then prove that our resulting stopping rule, denoted PPR-1v1, is asymptotically optimal (as the mistake probability is taken to $0$). PPR-1v1 is parameter-free and computationally light, and incurs significantly fewer samples than competitors even in the non-asymptotic regime. We demonstrate its gains in two practical applications of sampling: election forecasting and verification of smart contracts in blockchains.
We consider the problem of efficiently inferring interventional distributions in a causal Bayesian network from a finite number of observations. Let $\mathcal{P}$ be a causal model on a set $\mathbf{V}$ of observable variables on a given causal graph $G$. For sets $\mathbf{X},\mathbf{Y}\subseteq \mathbf{V}$, and setting ${\bf x}$ to $\mathbf{X}$, let $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ denote the interventional distribution on $\mathbf{Y}$ with respect to an intervention ${\bf x}$ to variables ${\bf x}$. Shpitser and Pearl (AAAI 2006), building on the work of Tian and Pearl (AAAI 2001), gave an exact characterization of the class of causal graphs for which the interventional distribution $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ can be uniquely determined. We give the first efficient version of the Shpitser-Pearl algorithm. In particular, under natural assumptions, we give a polynomial-time algorithm that on input a causal graph $G$ on observable variables $\mathbf{V}$, a setting ${\bf x}$ of a set $\mathbf{X} \subseteq \mathbf{V}$ of bounded size, outputs succinct descriptions of both an evaluator and a generator for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that is $\varepsilon$-close (in total variation distance) to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ where $Y=\mathbf{V}\setminus \mathbf{X}$, if $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ is identifiable. We also show that when $\mathbf{Y}$ is an arbitrary set, there is no efficient algorithm that outputs an evaluator of a distribution that is $\varepsilon$-close to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ unless all problems that have statistical zero-knowledge proofs, including the Graph Isomorphism problem, have efficient randomized algorithms.
We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.
Samuel Rikli, Nico, Bigler Daniel, Moritz Pfenninger, Joerg, Osterrieder
Modeling financial time series is challenging due to their high volatility and unexpected happenings on the market. Most financial models and algorithms trying to fill the lack of historical financial time series struggle to perform and are highly vulnerable to overfitting. As an alternative, we introduce in this paper a deep neural network called the WGAN-GP, a data-driven model that focuses on sample generation. The WGAN-GP consists of a generator and discriminator function which utilize an LSTM architecture. The WGAN-GP is supposed to learn the underlying structure of the input data, which in our case, is the Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unique in its behavior; the prices fluctuate what makes guessing the price trend hardly impossible. Through adversarial training, the WGAN-GP should learn the underlying structure of the bitcoin and generate very similar samples of the bitcoin distribution. The generated synthetic time series are visually indistinguishable from the real data. But the numerical results show that the generated data were close to the real data distribution but distinguishable. The model mainly shows a stable learning behavior. However, the model has space for optimization, which could be achieved by adjusting the hyperparameters.
Open access
2 source records
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Generative Adversarial Networks and Image Synthesis
A decentralized federated learning architecture is proposed to apply to the Businesses-to-Businesses scenarios by introducing the consortium blockchain in this paper. We introduce a model verification mechanism to ensure the quality of local models trained by participators. To analyze the latency of the system, a latency model is constructed by considering the work flow of the architecture. Finally the experiment results show that our latency model does well in quantifying the actual delays.
Yuzhou Chen, Ignacio Segovia-Domínguez, Yulia R. Gel
There recently has been a surge of interest in developing a new class of deep learning (DL) architectures that integrate an explicit time dimension as a fundamental building block of learning and representation mechanisms. In turn, many recent results show that topological descriptors of the observed data, encoding information on the shape of the dataset in a topological space at different scales, that is, persistent homology of the data, may contain important complementary information, improving both performance and robustness of DL. As convergence of these two emerging ideas, we propose to enhance DL architectures with the most salient time-conditioned topological information of the data and introduce the concept of zigzag persistence into time-aware graph convolutional networks (GCNs). Zigzag persistence provides a systematic and mathematically rigorous framework to track the most important topological features of the observed data that tend to manifest themselves over time. To integrate the extracted time-conditioned topological descriptors into DL, we develop a new topological summary, zigzag persistence image, and derive its theoretical stability guarantees. We validate the new GCNs with a time-aware zigzag topological layer (Z-GCNETs), in application to traffic forecasting and Ethereum blockchain price prediction. Our results indicate that Z-GCNET outperforms 13 state-of-the-art methods on 4 time series datasets.
Internet of quantum blockchains (IoB) will be the future Internet. In this paper, we make two new contributions to IoB: developing a block based quantum channel networking technology to handle its security modeling in face of the quantum supremacy and establishing IoB based FinTech platform model with dynamic pricing for stable digital currency. The interaction between our new contributions is also addressed. In doing so, we establish a generalized IoB security model by quantum channel networking in terms of both time and space quantum entanglements with quantum key distribution (QKD). Our IoB can interact with general structured things (e.g., supply chain systems) having online trading and payment capability via stable digital currency and can handle vector-valued data streams requiring synchronized services. Thus, within our designed QKD, a generalized random number generator for private and public keys is proposed by a mixed zero-sum and non-zero-sum resource-competition pricing policy. The effectiveness of this policy is justified by diffusion modeling with approximation theory and numerical implementations.
Chuheng Zhang, Yuanqi Li, Xi Chen, Yifei Jin · 6 authors
Modern machine learning models (such as deep neural networks and boosting decision tree models) have become increasingly popular in financial market prediction, due to their superior capacity to extract complex non-linear patterns. However, since financial datasets have very low signal-to-noise ratio and are non-stationary, complex models are often very prone to overfitting and suffer from instability issues. Moreover, as various machine learning and data mining tools become more widely used in quantitative trading, many trading firms have been producing an increasing number of features (aka factors). Therefore, how to automatically select effective features becomes an imminent problem. To address these issues, we propose DoubleEnsemble, an ensemble framework leveraging learning trajectory based sample reweighting and shuffling based feature selection. Specifically, we identify the key samples based on the training dynamics on each sample and elicit key features based on the ablation impact of each feature via shuffling. Our model is applicable to a wide range of base models, capable of extracting complex patterns, while mitigating the overfitting and instability issues for financial market prediction. We conduct extensive experiments, including price prediction for cryptocurrencies and stock trading, using both DNN and gradient boosting decision tree as base models. Our experiment results demonstrate that DoubleEnsemble achieves a superior performance compared with several baseline methods.
Due to high utility in many applications, from social networks to blockchain to power grids, deep learning on non-Euclidean objects such as graphs and manifolds, coined Geometric Deep Learning (GDL), continues to gain an ever increasing interest. We propose a new Lévy Flights Graph Convolutional Networks (LFGCN) method for semi-supervised learning, which casts the Lévy Flights into random walks on graphs and, as a result, allows both to accurately account for the intrinsic graph topology and to substantially improve classification performance, especially for heterogeneous graphs. Furthermore, we propose a new preferential P-DropEdge method based on the Girvan-Newman argument. That is, in contrast to uniform removing of edges as in DropEdge, following the Girvan-Newman algorithm, we detect network periphery structures using information on edge betweenness and then remove edges according to their betweenness centrality. Our experimental results on semi-supervised node classification tasks demonstrate that the LFGCN coupled with P-DropEdge accelerates the training task, increases stability and further improves predictive accuracy of learned graph topology structure. Finally, in our case studies we bring the machinery of LFGCN and other deep networks tools to analysis of power grid networks - the area where the utility of GDL remains untapped.
Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin prediction works mostly base on trivial feature engineering, that manually designs features or factors from multiple areas, including Bticoin Blockchain information, finance and social media sentiments. The feature engineering not only requires much human effort, but the effectiveness of the intuitively designed features can not be guaranteed. In this paper, we aim to mining the abundant patterns encoded in bitcoin transactions, and propose k-order transaction graph to reveal patterns under different scope. We propose the transaction graph based feature to automatically encode the patterns. A novel prediction method is proposed to accept the features and make price prediction, which can take advantage from particular patterns from different history period. The results of comparison experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the most recent state-of-art methods.
Abstract Directed Graph based models of a blockchain that capture accounts as nodes and transactions as edges, evolve over time. This temporal nature of a blockchain model enables us to understand the behavior (malicious or benign) of the accounts. Predictive classification of accounts as malicious or benign could help users of the permissionless blockchain platforms to operate in a secure manner. Motivated by this, we introduce temporal features such as burst and attractiveness on top of several already used graph properties such as the node degree and clustering coefficient. Using identified features, we train various Machine Learning (ML) models and identify the algorithm that performs the best in detecting malicious accounts. We then study the behavior of the accounts over different temporal granularities of the dataset before assigning them malicious tags. For the Ethereum blockchain, we identify that for the entire dataset—the ExtraTreesClassifier performs the best among supervised ML algorithms. On the other hand, using cosine similarity on top of the results provided by unsupervised ML algorithms such as K-Means on the entire dataset, we were able to detect 554 more suspicious accounts. Further, using behavior change analysis for accounts, we identify 814 unique suspicious accounts across different temporal granularities.
Federated learning enables the development of a machine learning model among collaborating agents without requiring them to share their underlying data. However, malicious agents who train on random data, or worse, on datasets with the result classes inverted, can weaken the combined model. BlockFLow is an accountable federated learning system that is fully decentralized and privacy-preserving. Its primary goal is to reward agents proportional to the quality of their contribution while protecting the privacy of the underlying datasets and being resilient to malicious adversaries. Specifically, BlockFLow incorporates differential privacy, introduces a novel auditing mechanism for model contribution, and uses Ethereum smart contracts to incentivize good behavior. Unlike existing auditing and accountability methods for federated learning systems, our system does not require a centralized test dataset, sharing of datasets between the agents, or one or more trusted auditors; it is fully decentralized and resilient up to a 50% collusion attack in a malicious trust model. When run on the public Ethereum blockchain, BlockFLow uses the results from the audit to reward parties with cryptocurrency based on the quality of their contribution. We evaluated BlockFLow on two datasets that offer classification tasks solvable via logistic regression models. Our results show that the resultant auditing scores reflect the quality of the honest agents' datasets. Moreover, the scores from dishonest agents are statistically lower than those from the honest agents. These results, along with the reasonable blockchain costs, demonstrate the effectiveness of BlockFLow as an accountable federated learning system.
Learning from data owned by several parties, as in federated learning, raises challenges regarding the privacy guarantees provided to participants and the correctness of the computation in the presence of malicious parties. We tackle these challenges in the context of distributed averaging, an essential building block of federated learning algorithms. Our first contribution is a scalable protocol in which participants exchange correlated Gaussian noise along the edges of a network graph, complemented by independent noise added by each party. We analyze the differential privacy guarantees of our protocol and the impact of the graph topology under colluding malicious parties, showing that we can nearly match the utility of the trusted curator model even when each honest party communicates with only a logarithmic number of other parties chosen at random. This is in contrast with protocols in the local model of privacy (with lower utility) or based on secure aggregation (where all pairs of users need to exchange messages). Our second contribution enables users to prove the correctness of their computations without compromising the efficiency and privacy guarantees of the protocol. Our verification protocol relies on standard cryptographic primitives like commitment schemes and zero knowledge proofs.