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59 results · page 2 of 3
Antonio Punzo, Luca Bagnato
No abstract is available for this record.
Stanisław Drożdż, Jarosław Kwapień, Paweł Oświȩcimka, Tomasz Stanisz · 5 authors
Social systems are characterized by an enormous network of connections and factors that can influence the structure and dynamics of these systems. Among them the whole economical sphere of human activity seems to be the most interrelated and complex. All financial markets, including the youngest one, the cryptocurrency market, belong to this sphere. The complexity of the cryptocurrency market can be studied from different perspectives. First, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rates to other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can be studied and quantified by means of multifractal formalism. Second, coupling and decoupling of the cryptocurrencies and the conventional assets can be investigated with the advanced cross-correlation analyses based on fractal analysis. Third, an internal structure of the cryptocurrency market can also be a subject of analysis that exploits, for example, a network representation of the market. In this work, we approach the subject from all three perspectives based on data from a recent time interval between January 2019 and June 2020. This period includes the peculiar time of the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore, we pay particular attention to this event and investigate how strong its impact on the structure and dynamics of the market was. Besides, the studied data covers a few other significant events like double bull and bear phases in 2019. We show that, throughout the considered interval, the exchange rate returns were multifractal with intermittent signatures of bifractality that can be associated with the most volatile periods of the market dynamics like a bull market onset in April 2019 and the Covid-19 outburst in March 2020. The topology of a minimal spanning tree representation of the market also used to alter during these events from a distributed type without any dominant node to a highly centralized type with a dominating hub of USDT. However, the MST topology during the pandemic differs in some details from other volatile periods.
Jinglan Zheng, Chun-Xiao Nie
This study examines the information flow between prices and transaction volumes in the cryptocurrency market, where transfer entropy is used for measurement. We selected four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and XRP) with large market values, and Bitcoin and BCH (Bitcoin Cash) for hard fork analysis; a hard fork is when a single cryptocurrency splits in two. By examining the real price data, we show that the long-term time series includes too much noise obscuring the local information flow; thus, a dynamic calculation is needed. The long-term and short-term sliding transfer entropy (TE) values and the corresponding [Formula: see text]-values, based on daily data, indicate that there is a dynamic information flow. The dominant direction of which is [Formula: see text]. In addition, the example based on minute Bitcoin data also shows a dynamic flow of information between price and transaction volume. The price–volume dynamics of multiple time scales helps to analyze the price mechanism in the cryptocurrency market.
Agam Shah, Yagnesh Chauhan, Bhaskar Chaudhury
No abstract is available for this record.
Harshal A. Chaudhari, Martin Crane
Cryptocurrencies have become a prominent investment tool recently with increasing interest in them and their relationships with stock and foreign exchange markets. We analyze here the cross-correlations of price changes of different cryptocurrencies using Random Matrix Theory and extract community structures by constructing minimum spanning trees, finding their eigenvalues contrast sharply with universal predictions of Random Matrix Theory. We reveal distinct transient community structures among different groupings of cryptocurrencies. By studying the cross-correlation dynamics of sub-communities we find evidence of collective behaviour. Furthermore, we compare eigenvalue changes and find prominent groupings following a community trend, useful for creating cryptocurrency portfolios.
Aurelio F. Bariviera
This paper studies of the multifractal dynamics in 84 cryptocurrencies. It fills an important gap in the literature, by studying this market using two alternative multi-scaling methodologies. We find compelling evidence that cryptocurrencies have different degree of long range dependence, and --more importantly -- follow different stochastic processes. Some of them follow models closer to monofractal fractional Gaussian noises, while others exhibit complex multifractal dynamics. Regarding the source of multifractality, our results are mixed. Time series shuffling produces a reduction in the level of multifractality, but not enough to offset it. We find an association of kurtosis with multifractality.
Qing Han, Jiajing Wu, Zibin Zheng
In spite of the increasing popularity of Ethereum, market analysis of the corresponding cryptocurrencies Ether is relatively unexplored until now. This paper is devoted to filling in the research gap of Ether market analysis, the purpose being to provide useful insights on Ether investment. In particular, we first employ the detrended fluctuation analysis and the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to investigate the properties of long-range dependence, multifractality, and its asymmetry. After that, we study the causality between returns and volume of Ether to find how the activity of investors influences returns based on a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test. Besides, by making a comparison with the Bitcoin market, we further uncover some unique properties of the Ether market.
Natália Costa, César Silva, Paulo Ferreira
In recent years, increasing attention has been devoted to cryptocurrencies, owing to their great development and valorization. In this study, we propose to analyse four of the major cryptocurrencies, based on their market capitalization and data availability: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin. We apply detrended fluctuation analysis (the regular one and with a sliding windows approach) and detrended cross-correlation analysis and the respective correlation coefficient. We find that Bitcoin and Ripple seem to behave as efficient financial assets, while Ethereum and Litecoin present some evidence of persistence. When correlating Bitcoin with the other cryptocurrencies under analysis, we find that for short time scales, all the cryptocurrencies have statistically significant correlations with Bitcoin, although Ripple has the highest correlations. For higher time scales, Ripple is the only cryptocurrency with significant correlation.
Stanis law Dro .zd .z, Ludovico Minati, Pawe l O 'swi kecimka, Marek Stanuszek · 5 authors
Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) are studied over the period between July 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018. It is shown that the multiscaling characteristics of the exchange rate fluctuations related to the cryptocurrency market approach those of the Forex. This, in particular, applies to the BTC/ETH exchange rate, whose Hurst exponent by the end of 2018 started approaching the value of 0.5, which is characteristic of the mature world markets. Furthermore, the BTC/ETH direct exchange rate has already developed multifractality, which manifests itself via broad singularity spectra. A particularly significant result is that the measures applied for detecting cross-correlations between the dynamics of the BTC/ETH and EUR/USD exchange rates do not show any noticeable relationships. This may be taken as an indication that the cryptocurrency market has begun decoupling itself from the Forex.
Paolo Giudici, Gloria Polinesi
No abstract is available for this record.
Andrés García-Medina, Graciela González-Farı́as
We determine the number of statistically significant factors in a high dimensional predictive model of cryptocurrencies using a random matrix test. The applied predictive model is of the reduced rank regression (RRR) type; in particular, we choose a flavor that can be regarded as canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A variable selection of hourly cryptocurrencies is performed using the Symbolic estimation of Transfer Entropy (STE) measure from information theory. In simulated studies, STE shows better performance compared to the Granger causality approach when considering a nonlinear system and a linear system with many drivers. In the application to cryptocurrencies, the directed graph associated to the variable selection shows a robust pattern of predictor and response clusters, where the community detection was contrasted with the modularity approach. Also, the centralities of the network discriminate between the two main types of cryptocurrencies, i.e., coins and tokens. On the factor determination of the predictive model, the result supports retaining more factors contrary to the usual visual inspection, with the additional advantage that the subjective element is avoided. In particular, it is observed that the dynamic behavior of the number of factors is moderately anticorrelated with the dynamics of the constructed composite index of predictor and response cryptocurrencies. This finding opens up new insights for anticipating possible declines in cryptocurrency prices on exchanges. Furthermore, our study suggests the existence of specific-predictor and specific-response factors, where only a small number of currencies are predominant.
Werner Kristjanpoller, Elie Bouri
No abstract is available for this record.
Xin Zhang, Liansheng Yang, Yingming Zhu
No abstract is available for this record.
Qing Cheng, Xinyuan Liu, Xiao-Wu Zhu
No abstract is available for this record.
Samet Günay, Kerem Kaşkaloğlu
In this study, we investigate the existence of chaos in the global cryptocurrency market. Specifically, we analyze parameters of chaotic order, nonlinearity, sensitivity to the initial conditions, monofractality, and multifractality. For this purpose, we conduct a comprehensive series of tests, including Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman (BDS) test, largest Lyapunov exponent, box-counting, and monogram analysis for fractal dimension, and multiple tests for long-range dependence (Aggregated Variances, Peng, Higuchi, R/S Analysis, and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA)). All tests are performed over a variety of major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. The empirical results support the existence of chaos in the cryptocurrency market. Accordingly, cryptocurrency returns are not random and follow a chaotic order. Therefore, long term predictions are not possible, contrary to most of the discussions ongoing in the media and the public.
Darko Stošić, Darko Stošić, Dušan Stošić, Dušan Stošić · 6 authors
No abstract is available for this record.
Stavros Stavroyiannis, Vassilios Babalos, Stelios Bekiros, Salim Lahmiri · 5 authors
No abstract is available for this record.
Darko Stošić, Dušan Stošić, Dušan Stošić, Tatijana Stošić · 6 authors
No abstract is available for this record.
Qiong Wu
This dissertation presents the application of microstructure theory on the RMB exchange rate\nand Bitcoin market price. The existing research on the RMB exchange rate and Bitcoin market price\nmainly studied their statistical characteristics through empirical methodologies. This dissertation\nfills the research gap in microstructure theory applied to the RMB exchange rate and Bitcoin market\nprice. First, the model for the determination of the two Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates and their\ninteractions is established, and empirical analysis suggests that the interactions among the two\nexchange rates and the explanatory variables are time-varying, in particular, after the "811 RMB\nexchange rate reform", the offshore RMB exchange rate replaced the onshore RMB exchange rate as\nthe leading indicator. Second, a model describing the speculative behavior in the Bitcoin trading\nmarket is developed. This theoretical model captures the statistical characteristics of Bitcoin\nmarket prices. The fundamental value of Bitcoin system is controversial, and the mysterious and\ninnovative features of the Bitcoin system incite the speculation behaviours. The speculation leads\nto the market bubble that brought the soaring and plunges of Bitcoin market price. Finally, an\neconomic model for Bitcoin mining competition based on the Bitcoin protocol is established, which\nprovides a benchmark for further research on mining competition in economics. For any Bitcoin\nminers, the equilibrium input depends on the comparison of the miner's own marginal cost with\nthat of other miners, however, whether profit can be obtained or not depends on the miner's own\nfixed cost.
Josselin Garnier, Knut Sølna
The bitcoin price has surged in recent years and it has also exhibited phases of rapid decay. In this paper we address the question to what extent this novel cryptocurrency market can be viewed as a classic or semi-efficient market. Novel and robust tools for estimation of multi-fractal properties are used to show that the bitcoin price exhibits a very interesting multi-scale correlation structure. This structure can be described by a power-law behavior of the variances of the returns as functions of time increments and it can be characterized by two parameters, the volatility and the Hurst exponent. These power-law parameters, however, vary in time. A new notion of generalized Hurst exponent is introduced which allows us to check if the multi-fractal character of the underlying signal is well captured. It is moreover shown how the monitoring of the power-law parameters can be used to identify regime shifts for the bitcoin price. A novel technique for identifying the regimes switches based on a goodness of fit of the local power-law parameters is presented. It automatically detects dates associated with some known events in the bitcoin market place. A very surprising result is moreover that, despite the wild ride of the bitcoin price in recent years and its multi-fractal and non-stationary character, this price has both local power-law behaviors and a very orderly correlation structure when it is observed on its entire period of existence.
Fang Wen, Tian Shaolin, Wang Jun
No abstract is available for this record.
Darko Stošić, Darko Stosic, Dušan Stošić, Dušan Stošić · 6 authors
No abstract is available for this record.
Darko Stošić, Dušan Stošić, Dušan Stošić, Tatijana Stošić · 6 authors
No abstract is available for this record.
Christian Hafner
The recent evolution of cryptocurrencies has been characterized by bubble-like behavior and extreme volatility. While it is difficult to assess an intrinsic value to a specific cryptocurrency, one can employ recently proposed bubble tests that rely on recursive applications of classical unit root tests. This paper extends this approach to the case where volatility is time varying, assuming a deterministic long-run component that may take into account a decrease of unconditional volatility when the cryptocurrency matures with a higher market dissemination. Volatility also includes a stochastic short-run component to capture volatility clustering. The wild bootstrap is shown to correctly adjust the size properties of the bubble test, which retains good power properties. In an empirical application using eleven of the largest cryptocurrencies and the CRIX index, the general evidence in favor of bubbles is confirmed, but much less pronounced than under constant volatility.