Muneer Shaik, Mustafa Raza Rabbani, Mohd Atif, Ahmet Faruk Aysan · 6 authors
We investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of geopolitical risk, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and oil from January 2018 to April 2022 in this study. We look at connectivity during the Pre-COVID, COVID, and Russian-Ukraine war subsamples. During the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war periods, we find that conventional, Islamic, and sustainable stock indices are net volatility transmitters, whereas gold, US bonds, GPR, oil, and bitcoin are net volatility receivers. During the Russian-Ukraine war, the commodity index (DJCI) shifted from being a net recipient of volatility to a net transmitter of volatility. Furthermore, we discover that bilateral intercorrelations are strong within stock indices (DJWI, DJIM, and DJSI) but weak across all other financial assets. Our study has important implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market participants who want to improve their existing strategies for avoiding financial losses.
Purpose - This study aims to explore the influence of emotional discrepancies among investors on the cryptocurrency market. It focuses on how varying emotions affect market dynamics such as volatility and trading volume in the context of Bitcoin trading. Design/methodology/approach - This study involves analyzing data from Bitcointalk.org, consisting of 57,963 posts and 2,215,776 responses from November 22, 2009, to December 31, 2022. Tools used include the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software for classifying emotional content and the Python Pattern library for sentiment analysis. Findings - The results show that heterogeneous emotional feedback, whether positive or negative, significantly influences Bitcoin's intraday volatility, skewness, and trading volume. These findings are more pronounced when the underlying emotion in the feedback is amplified. Research implications or Originality - This study underscores the significance of emotional factors in financial decision-making, especially within the realm of social media. It suggests that investors and market strategists should consider the emotional landscape of online forums when making investment choices or formulating market strategies. The research also paves the way for future studies regarding the behavioral impact of emotions on the cryptocurrency market.
Countering and combating manifestations of terrorism and extremism is an urgent and priority task for law enforcement agencies. These provisions underlie the national security of the state, and the fight against manifestations of this kind of crime rightfully deserves the most serious attention. The article presents the prerequisites for the use of cryptocurrencies for criminal purposes, based on the features of its functioning and use. The role of cryptocurrencies in the financing of terrorist and extremist activities in the current international financial and economic environment is indicated. The main problems that law enforcement agencies have to face in identifying and suppressing criminal activity, the financing of which can be organized with the help of cryptocurrencies, are reflected. Substantiated points of view are presented regarding the danger of the spread of cryptocurrencies in crimes of this direction, not only in relation to the Russian Federation, but also to the world community as a whole. The author presents statistical data of the indicated areas of crime and analyzes it. The results of a study by third-party organizations specializing in research in the field of cryptocurrencies are also presented and summarized. Examples of the use of cryptocurrencies to finance terrorist and extremist activities are noted. The ways of solving the presented problems are proposed, taking into account the mechanisms already proposed by scientists for preventing crimes using cryptocurrencies. In particular, the main emphasis is placed on the need to modernize the existing mechanisms of financial control and the reasonable involvement of representatives of large IT companies in this activity, since the main flow of information capable of exposing criminal activity is accumulated by them.
Open access
Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation
Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The econometric investigation covers the period from February 24, 2022 to April 12, 2023, and focuses on seven stock market indices (S&P 500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX, and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte, and XEM). In this article, we investigate how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets and whether they seek safe havens in cryptocurrencies. We use dynamic causality in the Granger (1969) sense to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term, and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. Our results show that in the short term, three famous cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple) and two digital assets with minor popularity (XEM and DigiByte) are impacted by the German, Russian, and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long term, we find a positive and significant effect of the American, Canadian, French and Ukrainian stock market indices on Bitcoin. These findings suggest that the stability of traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors' fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators' interest in new electronic products that are perceived as hedging instruments and safe havens in times of crisis.
Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Economic Sanctions and International Relations
Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
Abstract This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the current war between Russia and Ukraine. The econometric investigation runs from February 24, 2022 to April 12, 2023, focusing on seven stock market indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litcoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte and XEM). In this article, we try to understand how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets to seek safe havens in crypto currencies. We used dynamic causality in the Granger (1969) sense to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term, and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. The causal relationship between financial market indexes and cryptocurrency coins in the short run indicate that three famous cryptocurrencies (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, RIPPLE) and the two digital asset with minor popularity (XEM, Digibyte) are impacted by the German, Russian and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long-run we found a positive and significate effect of the American, Canadian, French and Ukrainian stock market indexes on Bitcoin. Thus, the stability of the traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors’ fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators’ sentiment towards new electronic products which are perceived as hedging instruments and a safe haven in the face of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. JEL Classifcation: C5 · C22 · G1
Open access
Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
We examine the reactions of the cryptocurrency market to two events that occurred during the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine war in February 2022. Using hourly data, we find that the escalation exerted a negative influence on both liquidity and returns. Interestingly, the actual escalation triggered a more pronounced drop than the threat of escalation shortly before. This contrasts with the stock market, where threats of geopolitical events are found to have a greater impact. Post-escalation, we observe indications of increased demand for cryptocurrencies, potentially as a means to circumvent Western sanctions imposed on Russia or to provide aid to Ukraine.
Like any other major legal institutions in international law, international sanctions were created to face the challenges of the analogue world, not those of the digital world. Today, when international sanctions are in the foreground, due to the war of aggression in Ukraine, it is necessary to investigate to what extent financial sanctions (as a type of international sanctions) are also applied to cryptoassets and cryptocurrencies. These two blockchain based assets and currencies represent a way to evade the financial sanctions regime imposed by United Nations, European Union, United States of America, United Kingdom and any other states or entities? Providing examples from the recent practice of the states, through the case study method, and studying the legal doctrine in the field, the article analyses the effects that the absence of an international regulation of cryptocurrencies can have on the efficiency and effectiveness of financial sanctions regimes and tries to find some solutions possible.
When one country illegally invades another sovereign country, repeatedly, utilizing the mechanism of sanctions to try and curb the misconduct, has become a favored approach among democratic countries.Russia once again invaded Ukraine in the early part of 2022, defying all international pressure, to refrain from the illegal act.The rapid response from the international community was a litany of sanctions intended to cripple and deter Russia's actions.Sanctions evasions are not a new challenge for sanctioning countries and agencies.A United Nations (UN) report notes that low levels of governmental oversight in the cryptocurrency sector have enabled North Korea to generate income at an alarming rate.The efficacy of financial sanctions in this way is consistently undermined through illicit cryptocurrency transactions.As the cryptocurrency sphere exceeds forty-two million users worldwide, the question on those issuing sanctions remains: If cryptocurrency is left unregulated, will financial sanctions lose their power?This article will outline the use of sanctions as a preferred foreign policy tool and how they work.I look at the various sanctions the United States, European Union, United Nations have levied against the Russian Federation in response to repeated invasions of Ukraine's sovereign territory.I will also analyze cryptocurrency, defining what it is, how it works to lay the groundwork for the analysis of the current cryptocurrency regulations and how this relates to concerns of illicit activity within the cryptocurrency sphere, as a means for sanctions evasion.Several countries including The Russian Federation (Russia), The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (Venezuela), The Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) and The Democratic People's Republic of North Korea (North Korea) are using innovative cybercrimes and other crypto-based efforts to evade economic and financial sanctions.This article will consider the pushback on regulation from the crypto industry as well as illuminating the loopholes that are causing increased concern and current incidences of illicit activity internationally.Finally, I propose a few areas of consideration for creating an international regulatory framework to help combat the evasion of financial sanctions, using cryptocurrencies.
Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury, Mohammad Abdullah, Mansur Masih
This paper makes an initial attempt to investigate the risk spillover of the Russia-Ukraine war and oil price on Asian Islamic Stocks and bitcoin. We apply quantile-based connectedness measures using daily return data covering four Asian Islamic stock indices–oil, gold, bitcoin, and war panic–from February 1, 2022, to July 15, 2022. The results indicate higher connectedness in the upper and lower quantiles compared to the middle quantile, which implies that return shocks react more sharply during high war panic.
Purpose- Sanctions, as an alternative to the use of military force, are used as a means of diplomatic coercion for the target country to abandon some of its decisions or avoid some possible practices. While half a century ago, sanctions included issues such as trade and travel restrictions and arms embargo, today the form and content of sanctions have changed significantly. In the last decade, most of the sanctions imposed on some states, especially to Iran and the Russian Federation, are financial sanctions. These financial sanctions, it is aimed to cut the target country's ties with the global financial markets, to disrupt the cash/capital inflow and outflow to the target country, to prevent trade by removing them from global payment systems such as SWIFT and to restrict some activities of central banks. However, the issue of whether cryptocurrencies, which we have heard frequently since 2009, can be used as a means of mitigating or overcoming the financial sanctions is frequently on the agenda. In this context, we analyze whether cryptocurrencies can be used to mitigate or overcome the financial sanctions imposed on the target country. Methodology- The size of the financial sanctions applied by the USA, Canada, Australia, Japan and EU countries against the Russian Federation, after the war started in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and the foreign money inflow/outflow volume needed by the Russian Federation as a result of its removal from the SWIFT system are compared with the volume of cryptocurrencies owned by the Russian Federation. Findings- The blockchain database system, which underpins cryptocurrencies, still struggles with a number of challenges. Especially the ability to increase the capacity (scalability) of the blockchain network is one of these problems. The scalability problem hinders the effective use of cryptocurrencies by the Russian Federation. In addition, when the financial transaction capacity and the size of the sanctions applied to the Russian Federation are compared with the crypto market size of the Russian Federation, it is seen that there is a significant difference in sizes. Conclusion- In today's conditions, cryptocurrencies stay away from the capacity to mitigate or overcome the financial sanctions applied to countries with large trading capacities such as the Russian Federation and to be used as a means of payment. However, in the coming years, in the case of developments in cryptocurrency technologies, cryptocurrencies have the capacity to be used to circumvent financial sanctions. Keywords: Sanctions, financial sanctions, payment instrument, crypto assets, blockchain. JEL Codes: F51, G20, B17
Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz, Ni Putu Indah Rahmadani, Priscilla Laura Aditya Tori
This research was conducted to determine whether gold and cryptocurrency (i.e., Bitcoin) can be used as safe haven assets for oil, wheat, stock index (SI), government bond (GB), Islamic stock (IS), and Islamic bond (IB) during the Russia-Ukraine war. We used panel quantile regression by utilizing extreme lower quantiles (i.e., 1%, 2.5%, 5%). It will only be recognized as a safe haven asset if it is negatively correlated with another asset during extreme adverse shocks. The data spans from 23 February 2021 – 25 July 2022 which covered the five largest economies in Europe and Asia (i.e., Germany, France, the UK, China, and Japan). The findings indicate that gold only acted as a safe haven asset for wheat, SI, and IS during the Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, Bitcoin only serves as a safe haven asset for oil, wheat, SI, and GB during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Using Russian-Ukraine war as an exogenous event, we investigate whether Bitcoin is used to evade financial sanctions. We follow three avenues to explore this problem. First, we investigate Bitcoin trading volume pre- and post- Russia's invasion. Second, we explored price and return relationships between Bitcoin and other major asset classes during the same period. Lastly, we investigate the associations between Bitcoin trading volume and Russia oil export by sea. Overall, our results suggest that Bitcoin is not used to evade sanctions in large scale.
This research provides the very first empirical investigation of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the cryptocurrency market (Bitcoin trading volume, and returns). The findings indicate that the Russia-Ukraine war impedes Bitcoin trading volume. A 1% increase in the Russia-Ukraine war leads to a 0.2% reduction in Bitcoin trading volume. The findings also indicate that the impact is more pronounced during the post-invasion period, especially after one week of the invasion. Finally, the Russia-Ukraine war predicts Bitcoin returns in both the short and long run.
Open access
Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, Md. Naiem Hossain, Juha-Pekka Junttila, Gazi Salah Uddin · 5 authors
This study analyses the impact of different uncertainties on commodity markets to assess commodity markets' hedging or safe-haven properties. Using time-varying dynamic conditional correlation and wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile regression models, our findings show that, both before and during the COVID-19 crisis, soybeans and clean energy stocks offer strong safe-haven opportunities against cryptocurrency price uncertainty and geopolitical risks (GPR). Soybean markets weakly hedge cryptocurrency policy uncertainty, US economic policy uncertainty, and crude oil volatility. In addition, GSCI commodity and crude oil also offer a weak safe-haven property against cryptocurrency uncertainties and GPR. Consistent with earlier studies, our findings indicate that safe-haven traits can alter across frequencies and quantiles. Our findings have significant implications for investors and regulators in hedging and making proper decisions, respectively, under diverse uncertain circumstances.
This study sets out to explore the impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on worldwide financial markets by considering a large array of national currencies, precious metals and fuel, agricultural commodities and cryptocurrencies. Estimations span the period since the Russian invasion until the takeover of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Optimal portfolios are constructed for separate categories of financial assets for different levels of risk-aversion by investors. The Chinese yuan, gold, corn, soybeans, sugar and Bitcoin prove to be safe haven investments while the Japanese yen, natural gas, wheat and the combination of Bitcoin and Ethereum offer profit opportunities for risk-seekers. Notably, the agricultural commodities’ portfolio is the best performing while the cryptocurrency portfolio generates the worst risk-return trade-off. National currencies could act as safe havens in the place of gold when all types of assets can be combined. Natural gas is revealed to be the most reliable profit generator. Overall, high risk appetite does not result in large improvement in portfolios’ returns. This study sheds light on investors’ optimal decision-making during elevated geopolitical uncertainties and provides a compass for improving welfare.
Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones