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127 papersLast indexed Aug 31, 2026
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Mar 21, 2026·Open MIND
0 cites
Crypto XVA - a framework for valuation adjustments in digital asset markets

David Martin

Traditional finance developed the XVA framework — encompassing Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA), Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and related components — in direct response to the systemic failures exposed by the 2008 financial crisis. The framework's central insight is that derivatives cannot be priced in isolation from the costs imposed by counterparty default risk, collateral funding, and regulatory capital. These adjustments are now standard practice at every major financial institution. As institutional capital increasingly flows into digital asset markets, and as the intersection of decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance (TradFi) deepens structurally, a critical pricing gap has emerged: the absence of a rigorous Crypto XVA™ framework that addresses the unique risk characteristics of blockchain-based financial instruments. Prior scholarship has examined smart contracts as potential eliminators of counterparty risk (Morini & Sams 2015; Fries & Kohl-Landgraf 2018), but has not systematically constructed the affirmative case for a crypto-native valuation adjustment architecture. This paper addresses that gap through a framework of nine distinct adjustment categories organized in three tiers: Protocol-Level (SCVA, OVA, LRVA, BRVA, GVA), Asset-Level (SVA, TVLVA, LCVA), and Cross-Protocol / Network-Level, introduced in this revision through the Composability Valuation Adjustment (CompVA) — the fair-value reserve for propagation risk invisible to protocol- and asset-level adjustments, and the dominant loss channel in the April 18–19, 2026 Aave / Kelp DAO / LayerZero cascade, in which a bridge exploit at one protocol produced multi-billion-dollar TVL impact at uncompromised peer protocols. The framework is explicitly oriented to the fair-value-measurement regime — ASC 820 in the United States and IFRS 13 under IFRS — and is positioned alongside the presently divergent capital-adequacy regimes: the Basel Committee's Working Paper 44 and SCO60, which charge higher capital for permissionless infrastructure, and the March 2026 OCC / Federal Reserve / FDIC interagency FAQs, which adopt a technology-neutral capital rule. Both frameworks address capital adequacy; neither addresses measurement. Crypto XVA provides the missing measurement architecture, in which jurisdictional regulatory divergence itself enters fair value as a priced input through LCVA and the Tier III network correlations. The paper also examines what we term the Smart Contract XVA Paradox: prior claims that smart contracts eliminate counterparty risk are technically accurate but misleading. The correct statement is that DeFi transforms counterparty risk into smart contract risk; the net effect on total valuation adjustment depends on protocol-specific characteristics and cannot be assumed directionally. Because oracle parameters in DeFi are endogenous and programmable, Crypto XVA operates not only as a measurement architecture but as a control framework for protocol governance.

Open access
3 source records
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Corporate Insolvency and Governance
Original source
Mar 6, 2026·Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Explainable Update Auditing in Federated Credit Risk Modeling: Bridging Model Transparency and Multi-Party Data Privacy

Praveen Kumar Sabbineni

Federated learning enables financial institutions to collaboratively develop credit risk models while maintaining data privacy, yet existing implementations prioritize accuracy and confidentiality over transparency and regulatory compliance requirements. Current federated approaches treat explainability as a secondary concern addressed through separate post-processing workflows, creating significant gaps in auditability and stakeholder trust that limit adoption in regulated environments. This article introduces the Explainable Update Auditing framework, which embeds transparency mechanisms directly into federated training protocols through local explanation bundles and privacy-preserving audit trails. The framework generates standardized, model-agnostic explanations that characterize how institutional updates influence global model behavior without exposing proprietary data or competitive information. Cryptographic attestation mechanisms verify compliance with fairness, stability, and governance constraints throughout training processes using zero-knowledge proof systems that maintain institutional confidentiality while providing mathematical assurance of appropriate collaborative behavior. The dual-layer trust mechanism addresses distinct information needs across multiple stakeholder groups, including participating institutions, regulatory authorities, internal governance bodies, and affected borrowers. Implementation considerations reveal computational overhead challenges, privacy-utility trade-offs, and cryptographic protocol efficiency requirements that must be addressed for practical deployment. The framework transforms federated learning from an opaque collaboration protocol into a transparent, auditable ecosystem that satisfies regulatory requirements while preserving privacy guarantees essential for cross-institutional partnerships in credit risk modeling applications.

Open access
Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
Privacy-Preserving Technologies in Data
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Original source
Mar 1, 2026·International Scientific Journal of Engineering and Management
0 cites
A CRYPTOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK FOR CONFIDENTIAL CREDITWORTHINESS VERIFICATION USING NON-INTERACTIVE PROOF CONSTRUCTS

S. VISHNU VARDHAN GOUD, CHANDU E., SIVAKUMAR D., MANJUNADH K. · 5 authors

The system establishes a privacy-preserving credit evaluation framework that eliminates exposure of user financial data during creditworthiness verification. Conventional credit scoring requires complete visibility into a borrower’s income records, liabilities, repayment patterns, and transaction histories, creating structural risks related to data theft, unauthorized sharing, profiling, and large-scale breaches. The proposed architecture replaces disclosure-based assessment with Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge (NIZK) proofs. Users locally compute cryptographic attestations that assert compliance with predetermined financial thresholds—such as debt-to-income ratio, repayment consistency, or minimum balance stability—without revealing source data. Verifiers check the proof deterministically, without bidirectional communication or access to underlying financial artifacts. The model reduces attack surface, removes centralized exposure of sensitive records, and aligns credit scoring processes with modern expectations of confidentiality, verifiability, and regulatory trust. It offers an adaptable foundation for digital lending, embedded finance, decentralized platforms, and cross-institution credit portability.

Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Feb 26, 2026·Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
The DeFi Vertical - The Sovereign Credit Protocol: Under-Collateralized Lending via Reputation Scores

Ali Sadhik Shaik

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has successfully rebuilt the plumbing of Wall Street (Trading, Lending, Derivatives) but has failed to replicate its engine: Credit. Currently, all DeFi lending is Over-Collateralized. To borrow $1.00, a user must deposit $1.50 in assets. This is not "Credit"; it is merely "Liquidity Swapping." It restricts DeFi to wealthy speculators and excludes 99% of global borrowers who need capital precisely because they do not have assets to pledge. The Klyrox Sovereign Credit Protocol introduces the first scalable framework for Under-Collateralized Lending on-chain. By transforming the Klyrox Identity Token (Epistemic Capital) into a programmable "Credit Score," we allow users to pledge their History instead of their Assets. This paper outlines the mathematical risk models that allow lenders to safely issue loans with 50% or even 0% collateral, unlocking a trillion-dollar market for on-chain personal finance.

Open access
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Feb 18, 2026·Journal of International Economics
0 cites
Insufficient or excessive investment under sovereign default risk

Ilhwan Song, Gabriel Mihalache

Private agents do not internalize the impact of their investment decisions on the sovereign’s bond prices and default risk. Therefore, a standard externality argument implies that investment is insufficient and that a subsidy can improve welfare, if financed by non-distortionary means. We contrast this logic with a countervailing force. When the sovereign is impatient relative to households, plausibly due to political economy factors, it finds laissez-faire capital accumulation excessive and might prefer instead to tax it. We embed both mechanisms in a sovereign default model with decentralized capital investment, long-term public debt, and stochastic trend growth, calibrated to salient features of the Spanish economy. We find that the impatience channel dominates quantitatively, to such an extent that laissez-faire is preferable to the government’s ideal fiscal policy, based on households’ welfare.

Open access
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Global Financial Crisis and Policies
Original source
Feb 5, 2026·2026 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Computer, Data Sciences and Applications (ACDSA)
1 cites
Heavy-Tail Risk in Traditional Versus Crypto Markets: A Q-Q Plot-Based Analysis

A. H. Nzokem, Daniel Maposa

This paper investigates extreme risk in cryptocurrency markets by comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum daily returns with those of S&P 500 and SPY ETF. Using the Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution to model heavy tails and Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) plots to assess fitness, we find that all assets deviate sharply from normal distribution. Within this framework, Ethereum exhibits a higher frequency of extreme returns than Bitcoin, highlighting differences in risk profiles even among leading cryptocurrencies.

Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
Feb 5, 2026·2026 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Computer, Data Sciences and Applications (ACDSA)
1 cites
Peakedness and Tail Heaviness in Crypto Returns: A Risk Management Perspective on Bitcoin and Ethereum

A. H. Nzokem, Daniel Maposa

The cryptocurrency market offers significant investment opportunities, but with high levels of financial risk compared to traditional asset classes. This study analyzes the daily returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, focusing on tail behavior and peakedness to assess risk. Using the flexible Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution, we capture significant deviations from normality. Results show Bitcoin returns are more concentrated around the mean, with 80 % of returns between$-1.27 \%$and 2.84 %, while Ethereum is more dispersed-only 40 % of its returns fall in that range. Bitcoin's distribution is more sharply peaked; Ethereum has heavier tails and greater exposure to extreme fluctuations. These findings underscore the importance of using advanced models like the GTS for accurate risk management and portfolio optimization in cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Original source
Feb 2, 2026·HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)
0 cites
Essais sur le crédit, la découverte des taux et les facteurs déterminants du prix des jetons en finance décentralisée

Charlotte Eli

This dissertation investigates the economic and behavioral foundations of decentralized finance (DeFi) where lending, borrowing, and rate discovery are executed by smart contracts rather than traditional financial institutions. Through three complementary essays, it analyzes the design of decentralized credit protocols, the formation of interest rates in decentralized markets, and the fundamental and behavioral drivers of DeFi token valuation.The first essay examines the Atlendis protocol, which enables non- or partially-collateralized lending by combining off-chain underwriting with on-chain execution. The second develops a theoretical model of decentralized rate discovery based on a multi-unit game framework, identifying the conditions for efficiency and the frictions specific to these markets. The third provides an empirical analysis of DeFi token returns, showing that investor sentiment, liquidity dynamics, and behavioral factors play a significant role in price formation alongside economic fundamentals.By bridging financial engineering, theoretical modeling, and empirical research, this thesis sheds light on how DeFi reshapes intermediation, price formation, and governance in a transparent, programmable financial environment.

Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Economic theories and models
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Original source
Jan 19, 2026·Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Proof of Contribution (POC): An Audit-Executable Execution-Weight Layer for Contribution-Generated Assets

Topo Labs CY

Many systems map governance and execution power directly to purchasable capital (stake, tokens, shares). This creates structurally unsafe paths to power: influence can be bought, short-window manipulation can become long-lived authority, and low-integrity applications can contaminate system-level decision making. This paper defines Proof of Contribution (POC) as a parent-layer execution-weight reference and constraint layer for contribution-generated assets (ABUE / CGA). POC converts finalized contribution-derived claims into execution weights under strict constraints: Source purity (external purchases do not mint influence), verifiable value caps (weights cannot exceed auditable backing), decay (power requires continued contribution), downward-only normalization (anti-compounding), local negative contributions (risk isolation), and delayed activation (audit windows). Crucially, POC is specified as an audit-executable closed loop: versioned policy bundles with timelocks, deterministic recomputation, public commitments (roots), challenge windows, and automatic consequences (freeze/down-weight/remove; Only-Down). We provide falsifiable hypotheses (H0–H4), trigger playbooks (TRW1–TRW3), Minimum Qualifying Implementation (MQI) boundaries, a parameter ledger, and a reproducible toy simulator framework (ReproPackW/MVDW) intended to validate invariants—not to claim economic optimality. A consensus instantiation is treated as a conditional subset and fully developed in a companion paper.

Open access
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Original source
Jan 18, 2026·arXiv (Cornell University)
0 cites
ASAS-BridgeAMM: Trust-Minimized Cross-Chain Bridge AMM with Failure Containment

Shengwei You, Aditya Joshi, Andrey Kuehlkamp, Jarek Nabrzyski

Cross-chain bridges constitute the single largest vector of systemic risk in Decentralized Finance (DeFi), accounting for over \$2.8 billion in losses since 2021. The fundamental vulnerability lies in the binary nature of existing bridge security models: a bridge is either fully operational or catastrophically compromised, with no intermediate state to contain partial failures. We present ASAS-BridgeAMM, a bridge-coupled automated market maker that introduces Contained Degradation: a formally specified operational state where the system gracefully degrades functionality in response to adversarial signals. By treating cross-chain message latency as a quantifiable execution risk, the protocol dynamically adjusts collateral haircuts, slippage bounds, and withdrawal limits. Across 18 months of historical replay on Ethereum and two auxiliary chains, ASAS-BridgeAMM reduces worst-case bridge-induced insolvency by 73% relative to baseline mint-and-burn architectures, while preserving 104.5% of transaction volume during stress periods. In rigorous adversarial simulations involving delayed finality, oracle manipulation, and liquidity griefing, the protocol maintains solvency with probability $>0.9999$ and bounds per-epoch bad debt to $<0.2%$ of total collateral. We provide a reference implementation in Solidity and formally prove safety (bounded debt), liveness (settlement completion), and manipulation resistance under a Byzantine relayer model.

Open access
3 source records
cs.DC
cs.CR
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Jan 16, 2026·arXiv (Cornell University)
0 cites
Automated Liquidity: Market Impact, Cycles, and De-pegging Risk

B. K. Meister

Three traits of decentralized finance are studied. First, the market impact function is derived for optimal-growth liquidity providers. For a standard random walk, the classic square-root impact is recovered. An extension is then derived to fit general fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. These findings break with the linearized liquidity models used in most decentralized exchanges. Second, a Constant Product Market Maker is viewed as a multi-phase Carnot engine, where one phase matches the exchange of tokens by a liquidity taker, and another the change of pool size by a liquidity provider. Third, stablecoin de-pegging is a form of catastrophe risk. By using growth optimization, default odds are linked to the cost of catastrophe bonds. De-pegging insurance can act as a counterweight and a key marketing tool when the law forbids the payment of interest on stablecoins.

Open access
3 source records
q-fin.PM
Insurance and Financial Risk Management
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
Jan 2, 2026·arXiv (Cornell University)
0 cites
Second Thoughts: How 1-second subslots transform CEX-DEX Arbitrage on Ethereum

Aleksei Adadurov, S. Barseghyan, Anton Chtepine, Antero Eloranta · 6 authors

This paper examines the impact of reducing Ethereum slot time on decentralized exchange activity, with a focus on CEX-DEX arbitrage behavior. We develop a trading model where the agent's DEX transaction is not guaranteed to land, and the agent explicitly accounts for this execution risk when deciding whether to pursue arbitrage opportunities. We compare agent behavior under Ethereum's default 12-second slot time environment with a faster regime that offers 1-second subslot execution. The simulations, calibrated to Binance and Uniswap v3 data from July to September 2025, show that faster slot times increase arbitrage transaction count by 535% and trading volume by 203% on average. The increase in CEX-DEX arbitrage activity under 1-second subslots is driven by the reduction in variance of both successful and failed trade outcomes, increasing the risk-adjusted returns and making CEX-DEX arbitrage more appealing.

Open access
3 source records
q-fin.TR
q-fin.CP
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
An Islamic Credit Default Swap on Smart-Contract Infrastructure: Design, Pricing, and Regulatory Pathway

Shehzad Ahmed, Rafiqul Bhuyan, Rubaiyat Islam

We introduce the first fully operational Islamic Credit Default Swap (iCDS) on public blockchain infrastructure, combining a closed-form riba-free pricing formula with a deployed smart contract on Arbitrum. Building on the κ-rate framework of Ackerer, Hugonnier & Jermann [1] and the credit-equivalence theorem of Ahmed, Bhuyan & Islam [3], the fair iCDS spread is s * = κ(1-δ) at ι = 0, where κ is the convergence intensity and δ is the recovery rate. Conventional CDS, discounted at the risk-free rate ι, prices at s conv = κ(1-δ) • ι/(κ+ι)

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Fundamentals of Cryptocurrency Perpetual Futures and Swaps

Michael Neubert, Wolfgang Rams, Patrick Gruhn, Marcel Lötscher

Perpetual futures (often called perpetual swaps) are the dominant crypto-derivatives instrument. They replicate the economic exposure of a futures contract without an expiry date. They replace maturity-based convergence with a funding mechanism that transfers cash flows between longs and shorts, typically every eight hours. This paper explains how perpetuals evolved from early proposals for non-maturing futures into a standardized crypto market instrument, and why key design choices changed over time. It synthesizes recent theoretical and empirical research on funding design, pricing, and arbitrage intuition, market microstructure, liquidation risk, and regulation. Finally, this study proposes a research agenda organized around funding design, constrained arbitrage, transparency, decentralized exchange design, policy, and legal classification, because recent U.S. and EU developments show that the same economic structure may be characterized as a futures contract, swap, CFD-type instrument, or other derivative depending on statutory definitions, venue design, and supervisory interpretation. This paper proposes the following definition: a cryptocurrency perpetual is an open-ended, margin-based derivative that gives synthetic long or short exposure to an underlying crypto asset and replaces expiry-based settlement with periodic funding payments that anchor the contract price to a reference spot price.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Crypto Derivatives Markets: Price Discovery, Volatility Dynamics, Market Efficiency, and DeFi Risk: A Structural Analysis.

Deepak Ranjan Sahoo, Vaishali Deepak Sahoo

This paper presents a comprehensive structural analysis of cryptocurrency derivative markets spanning January 2019 to December 2024, covering Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and six additional tokens across over 2.83 billion high-frequency transactions on eight major centralized exchanges and three decentralized finance (DeFi) derivative protocols. Using a theoretically grounded multi-method framework—comprising Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), Hasbrouck (1995) and Gonzalo-Granger (1995) information share decompositions, Heston (1993) and rough volatility (Gatheral et al., 2018) stochastic models, DCC-GARCH(1,1) augmented with realized kernel estimators, MIDAS regressions linking high-frequency derivative signals to lowerfrequency on-chain variables, and panel quantile regressions for cross-sectional volatility risk—we deliver six primary empirical contributions. First, perpetual swap markets consistently dominate spot markets in price discovery, contributing 63.4% (BTC) and 58.7% (ETH) of price-efficient information on average, rising to 72.1% and 68.4%, respectively, during the top quartile of volatility days—consistent with informed-agent migration to leveraged venues. Second, the Heston leverage correlation estimate ρ = −0.61 for BTC and ρ = −0.73 for ETH reflects asymmetric tail risk demand rather than balance-sheet leverage, with the implied volatility smirk's left-tail slope strongly cointegrated with funding-rate deviations (r = −0.54, p < 0.001). Third, we estimate a time-varying variance risk premium averaging 14.8 (BTC) and 19.3 (ETH) annualized variance percentage points; panel regressions reveal that on-chain network congestion fees retain significant incremental explanatory power after controlling for VIX, DXY, and credit spreads—a novel identification of a blockchain-specific volatility channel. Fourth, rough volatility models (Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.08 for BTC) significantly outperform classical Heston specifications in fitting near-term implied volatility smiles, with RMSPE reductions of 31.7% for one-week expiry options. Fifth, CME Bitcoin Futures introduction produced a structural break in arbitrage efficiency, reducing basis mean-reversion halflives by 41.2% and lowering adverse-selection costs by 18.6 basis points. Sixth, on-chain DeFi perpetual protocols (GMX v2, dYdX v4) exhibit significantly higher adverse selection costs and lower price discovery shares (mean IS = 0.24) relative to centralized counterparts, but display timevarying convergence during U.S. regulatory uncertainty episodes. Our findings deliver unified implications for derivative pricing theory, risk management, and the architectural design of regulated cryptocurrency derivative markets.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Forecasting Crypto Volatility and Cross-Asset Correlations Using Aave v2 and v3 On-Chain Signals

Ion-Iulian Marinescu, Alexandra Horobet

This paper investigates whether variables associated with the leading decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocol Aave exert measurable effects on the volatilities of Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), as well as on their dynamic correlations with the S&P 500. We construct a dataset spanning January 2021 to December 2025, covering both Aave V2 and V3, from which we derive explanatory variables including utilization ratios, supply and borrowing rates and measures of pool-level lending risk. Principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to address dimensionality and multicollinearity, yielding two economically interpretable signals: a crypto inflow component capturing risk appetite, and a stablecoin inflow component consistent with flight-to-safety behavior. Cryptocurrency volatilities are computed using the Garman–Klass (GK) range-based estimator while dynamic cross-asset correlations are recovered via the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) framework. Granger causality tests and ARDL regression models reveal that the Aave risk appetite signal predicts changes in ETH GK volatility at lags 1 and 5 and dynamic correlations at all lags, with weaker effects on BTC volatility. Secondly, we observe a robust negative cumulative effect on all three dynamic correlations, indicating that expansions in DeFi activity systematically dampen crypto–equity co-movements and also lead to a decoupling of BTC and ETH. These results are robust to different volatility specifications and suggest that on-chain DeFi data contains forward-looking information and can help reduce parameter estimation risk, a critical issue in deriving optimal portfolios involving digital assets. We expect that DeFi protocol-level signals will become a standard component of empirical work on digital-asset pricing and risk.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Multiplex Interdependence Centrality: Quantifying Cross-Layer Contagion Risk in Financial Networks

Athar Kharal, Sanaa Anjum, SyedA Yasmeen

Financial institutions today are embedded in a multiplex network of interconnected obligations spanning interbank lending, sovereign bond exposures, and decentralized finance liquidity pools. Traditional systemic risk metrics treat each channel independently, ignoring the cross-layer feedback mechanisms through which shocks amplify during crises. We introduce the Multiplex Interdependence Centrality framework, a spectral measure that computes the principal eigenvector of a weighted supra-adjacency matrix coupling multiple financial layers. The multiplex interdependence centrality score captures a node's systemic importance jointly across all layers, accounting for both intra-layer exposure weights and inter-layer coupling intensities. We couple this centrality measure with a threshold-based cascade simulation to validate its predictive power. Using a synthetic three-layer financial network of 100 nodes representing interbank lending, sovereign bonds, and DeFi markets, we demonstrate that MIC achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.806 with actual cascade damage that substantially outperforms the centrality of the eigenvector of the single-layer, PageRank, and the centrality of the differences. Our results provide a rigorous quantitative foundation for integrating multiplex network metrics into institutional risk monitoring, central bank stress-testing frameworks, and regulatory oversight of cross-sector financial contagion.

Open access
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Global Financial Crisis and Policies
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Crypto XVA™: A Framework for Valuation Adjustments in Digital Asset Markets

David Martin

As institutional capital increasingly flows into digital asset markets, and as the intersection of decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance (TradFi) deepens structurally, a critical pricing gap has emerged: the absence of a rigorous Crypto XVA™ framework that addresses the unique risk characteristics of blockchain-based financial instruments. Prior scholarship has examined smart contracts as potential eliminators of counterparty risk (Morini & Sams 2015; Fries & Kohl-Landgraf 2018), but has not systematically constructed the affirmative case for a crypto-native valuation adjustment architecture. This paper addresses that gap. We make three principal contributions. First, we identify the novel risk factors unique to digital asset markets — smart contract vulnerability, oracle dependence, liquidity regime fragmentation, stablecoin reserve opacity, bridge transfer risk, and gas execution uncertainty — and argue each warrants a distinct valuation adjustment category. Second, we establish the critical analytical distinction between duration-bearing instruments (perpetual swaps, LP positions, DeFi lending) and instantaneous transactions (DEX spot swaps, bridge transfers), showing that the appropriate mathematical treatment differs fundamentally between these two classes and that conflating them produces analytically incoherent results. Third, we derive a generalized Crypto XVA integral that collapses appropriately in both regimes and demonstrate its application across five canonical DeFi instrument types with worked numerical examples.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Demand for Safety in the Crypto Ecosystem

Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota, Tammaro Terracciano

We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. In an environment lacking frictionless access to traditional safe assets, we examine whether stablecoin lending pools provide liquidity services to investors. To do so, we develop a model in which a representative investor allocates liquidity between stablecoin lending pool deposits and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). The model delivers three predictions: (i) the stablecoin premium co-moves positively with the Treasury premium when investors value liquidity services of stablecoin pools, (ii) Treasury supply decreases the stablecoin premium, and (iii) declines in the perceived liquidity of stablecoin pools --- e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks --- reduce their premium. Our empirical results provide evidence consistent with these predictions. They suggest that investors treat stablecoin lending pools as money-like instruments and that shocks to traditional safe assets transmit to crypto markets. Our findings contribute to the literature on safe assets by showing how safety is intermediated in crypto markets. They also offer new insights into the segmentation and structure of decentralized finance (DeFi) as it evolves alongside traditional financial systems.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
The Endogenous Loyalty Bond: Optimizing Corporate Capital Structure through Algorithmic Yield Engineering

Badr Farih

This paper proposes a novel decentralized financial instrument-the Algorithmic Yield-Multiplier Note-to mathematically resolve the classical agency friction between debt and equity constituencies. Under legacy market microstructures, the strict fungibility constraints and asynchronous settlement latencies of traditional clearinghouses preclude the issuance of dynamic, cross-asset covenants, thereby exacerbating asset substitution and debt overhang during macroeconomic distress. We circumvent these architectural bottlenecks by migrating corporate liability to a programmable, tokenized infrastructure. We introduce a continuous, state-dependent yield function that algorithmically scales a bondholder's coupon rate relative to their cryptographically verifiable equity holdings, structurally coercing fixed-income investors into an Endogenous Capital Loop. To defend this mechanism against high-frequency decentralized finance (DeFi) exploits, such as flash-loan and snapshot arbitrage, we engineer a continuous, path-dependent knockout barrier, 𝑆 𝑖 (𝑡), that permanently collapses the yield premium upon any instantaneous breach of the requisite equity threshold. Furthermore, we resolve the resultant fungibility crisis by constructing a hybrid Decentralized Exchange (hDEX) utilizing atomic swaps to govern secondary market velocity. By algorithmically enforcing a liquidity tax (𝜏), a yield-surrender covenant (𝛾), and strict cryptographic vesting lock-ups (𝑇 penalty), the mechanism fundamentally traps institutional capital. Ultimately, we demonstrate that this programmable constraint system monetizes investor duration risk and artificially suppresses the realized covariance of the firm's stock. By fusing the fixed-income and equity constituencies, the corporate treasury engineers a Pareto-improving capital structure that dramatically lowers the effective Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and insulates the enterprise value from systemic market contagion.

Open access
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Corporate Insolvency and Governance
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Hybrid Prudential Reserves and Tokenized Capital for DAO-Based Credit Issuance

Davide Sperolini

Lending protocols in decentralized finance have traditionally relied on over-collateralization mechanisms, where investor protection is primarily ensured through the automatic liquidation of collateral. While effective from an operational perspective, this approach limits the economic role of credit when compared with under-collateralized structures. In such settings, the prudential management of credit risk becomes a central element for protocol sustainability. This paper proposes a prudential framework for decentralized lending protocols by introducing an additional protection layer based on the distinction between tokenized loss-absorbing capital, an operational buffer, and a prudential reserve. The model defines three classes of subordinated instruments-First Loss Token, Contingent Capital Token, and Subordinated Backstop Token-arranged according to a progressive loss waterfall. The model is first applied to public data from Goldfinch and then extended to a TrueFi dataset, with the aim of assessing the ability of the policy to reduce losses borne by senior liquidity providers. The model shows a net reduction in losses. The sensitivity analysis confirms that the mechanism maintains a positive net benefit across variations in instrument costs, risk weights, and loss severity. The results suggest that an explicit prudential layer may contribute to strengthening the resilience of DAO-based credit protocols by making the prudential cost of risk-taking more transparent and by distinguishing between available liquidity, loss-absorbing capital, and protective reserves.

Open access
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
Working Capital and Financial Performance
Original source
Jan 1, 2026·Figshare
0 cites
Coin Quest: A Time-Series Database Architecture for Modular Risk Quantification in Cryptocurrency Portfolio Tracking

Siddharth Jain, Divyansh Jain

The pervasive volatility and structural complexity of decentralized assets present significant challenges for modern portfolio management. This paper introduces Coin Quest, a novel, high-fidelity cryptocurrency tracking and risk management platform designed to address critical shortcomings in existing market solutions, notably high data latency and the deficiency of robust quantitative risk tools. Our technical proposal mandates a resilient microservices architecture centered on Apache Kafka for high-throughput, low-latency data stream ingestion, ensuring real-time portfolio valuation across disparate exchanges and blockchains. The analytical core of Coin Quest implements the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework to compute Value at Risk (VaR) and the superior measure, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), recognizing the non-normal return distributions inherent to crypto assets. Furthermore, we detail specialized algorithms necessary for comprehensive tracking and valuation of complex Decentralized Finance (DeFi) positions, including the calculation of Impermanent Loss, and quantitative monitoring of NonFungible Tokens (NFTs) using floor price metrics. We conclude by outlining empirical validation requirements demonstrating the system’s capacity to maintain sub-100ms data latency and confirming the superior predictive accuracy of the MCS-based risk model against traditional historical simulations in highly volatile market environments.

Open access
3 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source