Even though the empirical literature on safe haven properties of different assets with respect to financial risks is increasing, their abilities to safeguard against political risks has not been the subject of large empirical investigations. This paper uses an Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach to look into the time-varying role of different assets (in particular, oil, precious metals and Bitcoin) as a safe haven against U.S. stocks in times of heightened uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Our results suggest that oil can act as an effective safe haven against political risk exposure; but such property varies over time. The abilities of gold and silver to provide positive returns during downturns have been also documented in the medium-and the long-term. Bitcoin also serves as a safe haven against U.S. stock losses but in the short-term. These findings provide useful and relevant information to investors to help ensure better asset allocation in an uncertain environment.
Abstract Background: Cryptocurrencies represent a specific technological innovation in financial markets that keeps getting more and more popular among investors around the world. Given the specific characteristics of the cryptocurrencies, this paper examines the possibility of their use as a diversification instrument. Objectives: This paper examines the direction and strength of the relationship between the selected cryptocurrencies and important financial indicators on the European Union market. Since cryptocurrencies are a novelty in the financial system, the empirical literature in this area is rather scarce. Methods/Approach: In order to assess diversification properties of cryptocurrencies for European traders, a comprehensive econometric analysis was carried out. The first part of the analysis refers to the estimation of the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, whereas the second part focuses on wavelet transforms. Results: Bitcoin and Ripple proved as a possible diversification instrument on most of the observed European markets since corresponding coefficients of unconditional correlation are negative. Conclusions: The relationship between the value of the cryptocurrencies and selected indices is generally very weak and slightly negative, indicating that some cryptocurrencies can serve as a means of diversification. However, investors need to take into account the extreme volatility, exhibited in all existing cryptocurrencies.
As Cryptocurrencies are emerging as a new class of investment assets, understanding their price and volatility dynamics has begun to gather momentum, especially the volatility can influence investment decisions. Most of previous literature concentrates primarily on several aspects of Bitcoin and endeavoring to generalize them for the whole cryptocurrency markets. In this study, we attempted to examine the return and volatility spillover effects across a wide range of cryptocurrency markets, i.e. eight major cryptocurrencies (determined by market capitalization) using a Vector Error Correction approach and Diagonal BEKK Multivariate GARCH model. We found the evidence of interdependencies and volatility co-movements among the various pairs of cryptocurrency markets. However, the study suggests that there exists a limited window of opportunity for the short-term portfolio diversification benefits from the selected large-cap cryptocurrency markets.
Based on daily data about Bitcoin and six other major financial assets (stocks, commodity futures (commodities), gold, foreign exchange (FX), monetary assets, and bonds) in China from 2013 to 2017, we use a VAR-GARCH-BEKK model to investigate mean and volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and other major assets and explore whether Bitcoin can be used either as a hedging asset or a safe haven. Our empirical results show that (i) only the monetary market, i.e., the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIIBOR) has a mean spillover effect on Bitcoin and (ii) gold, monetary, and bond markets have volatility spillover effects on Bitcoin, while Bitcoin has a volatility spillover effect only on the gold market. We further find that Bitcoin can be hedged against stocks, bonds and SHIBOR and is a safe haven when extreme price changes occur in the monetary market. Our findings provide useful information for investors and portfolio risk managers who have invested or hedged with Bitcoin.
This paper investigates the dynamic price movements of cryptocurrency market in Korea by employing asymmetric DCC multivariate GARCH and risk decomposition model to reflect the time-varying integration process. We find that the law of one price does not hold between Korean and developed markets like U.S. and Japan, implying that emerging cryptocurrency market can be exploited as a scapegoat of arbitragers. Specifically, the price spreads of 20 to 30 percent between BTC-KRW and BTC-USD persist, exhibiting a sign of economic speculative bubble in Korean cryptocurrency market. Additionally, while there are significant price and volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrency markets of U.S. and Japan, the feedback effects do not exist in the case of Korean market. Our analyses also indicate that the pricing in Korea is mostly based on domestic factors rather than global factors. Finally, we show that this arbitrage opportunity in Korean market has disappeared after a government regulation, which includes banning foreigners and minors from opening new cryptocurrency accounts and prohibiting initial coin offerings (ICOs). The results suggest that a suitable regulation is important to eliminate bubbles.
Eric Masanet, Arman Shehabi, Nuoa Lei, Harald Vranken · 6 authors
Bitcoin mining is becoming an increasingly energy-intensive process whose future implications for energy use and CO2 emissions remain poorly understood. This is in part because—like many IT systems—its computational efficiencies and service demands have been evolving rapidly. Therefore, scenario analyses that explore these implications can fill pressing knowledge gaps, but they must be approached with care. History has shown that poorly constructed scenarios of future IT energy use—often due to overly-simplistic extrapolations of early rapid growth trends—can do more harm than good by spreading misinformation and driving ill-informed decisions. Indeed, the utility of an energy demand scenario is directly proportional to its credibility, which is typically demonstrated through careful attention to technology characteristics and evolution, analytical rigor and transparency, and designing scenarios that align with plausible future outcomes.
This paper investigates the prediction power of Economic Policy Uncertainty on three aspects of Bitcoin, particularly the return, volume, and volatility. We employed the Transfer Entropy model with two different regimes: (i) stationary and (ii) non-stationary assumption. We constructed different algorithm calculations for returns, volume, and volatility to test how this proxy impacts. We find that the Global Economic Policy Uncertain negatively causes Bitcoin volumes and volatilities. Therefore, under uncertain regimes, investors are risk-averse to trade, which makes the market less volatile. Our findings confirm the existence of pessimistic risk premium and the theory of deteriorating liquidity under uncertainties in the Bitcoin market.
Mohammad Hashemi Joo, Yuka Nishikawa, Krishnan Dandapani
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the applications and contributions of blockchain technology in finance in general, and to identify areas where the technology can make a larger impact in payment systems. Design/methodology/approach The authors do an exhaustive review of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, and examine the successful applications of blockchain technology in several finance disciplines including cryptocurrency. The authors critically evaluate the technical studies on behaviors in cryptocurrency prices. Findings Cryptocurrency is the first successful application of blockchain technology and can be used as the main fuel of the global money transfer network. Research limitations/implications Blockchain is a revolutionary technology that can change the world with its convenience, transparency, accuracy and efficiency in speed and cost. The growth of blockchain usage in finance depends on further familiarization and trust gained by an increasing number of proven successful usage cases and testimonials as well as appropriate legislative changes. Originality/value This paper provides a comprehensive review of the contributions that blockchain technology has made and is expected to make in the field of finance with the aim of adding value to corporate executives, investors, policy makers and a general audience.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short- and long-run dynamic linkages between selected cryptocurrencies, several major world currencies and major equity indices. The results show that despite sharing some common characteristics, the cryptocurrencies do not reveal any short- and long-term stochastic trends with exchange rates and/or equity returns. The dynamics of each cryptocurrency with the Chinese Yuan appears to be more turbulent than that with the other exchange rates. Each cryptocurrency appears to follow its own trend in the global financial market and is independent of the exchange rates or the global stock markets, thus making them suitable for inclusion in global investment portfolios. Design/methodology/approach The cryptocurrencies examined are Bitcoin, Dash, Ethereum, Monero, Stellar and XRP. In addition, data were collected on major exchange rates with respect to the US dollar, namely, the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Chinese Yuan. Finally, the following major stock market indices were selected: SP500, DAX, DJIA, CAC, FTSE, NIKKEI, Hang Seng and Shanghai. The study applied vector autoregressive (VAR) model and Engle’s (2002) dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) specification. Findings First, it was found that cryptocurrencies do not interact with each other because their correlations are weak and do not share a common long-run path; thus they are not cointegrated. Second, impulse response analysis from the VAR models indicate different reactions of each cryptocurrency to both exchange rate and equity shocks and that cryptocurrencies appear to be isolated from market-driven shocks. Third, the ups and downs in the cryptocurrencies’ dynamic conditional correlations (from the DCC-GARCH models) indicate that all cryptocurrencies were susceptible to speculative attacks and market events. Research limitations/implications This paper examines the dynamic linkages among the most important cryptocurrencies with major exchange rates and equity markets and, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is the first paper to do so. Thus, interested market agents would gain valuable insights as to whether this new form of asset might be used for conducting monetary policies and portfolio construction on a global setting. Originality/value The paper contributes to the scant literature on the dynamic linkages among major cryptocurrencies and global financial assets. In general, given the differential relationships of each crypto with the equity markets, one could infer that they represent a decent short-run investment vehicle within a well-diversified, global asset portfolio (as they may increase the returns and reduce the overall risk of the portfolio).
This paper investigates the level of liquidity of digital currencies during the very intense bearish phase in their markets. The data employed span the period from April 2018 until January 2019, which is the second phase of bearish times with almost constant decreases. The Amihud’s illiquidity ratio is employed in order to measure the liquidity of these digital assets. Findings indicate that the most popular cryptocurrencies exhibit higher levels of liquidity during stressed periods. Thereby, it is revealed that investors’ preferences for trading during highly risky times are favorable for well-known virtual currencies in the detriment of less-known ones. This enhances findings of relevant literature about strong and persistent positive or negative herding behavior of investors based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and highly-capitalized cryptocurrencies in general. Notably though, a tendency towards investing in the TrueUSD stablecoin has also emerged.
Purpose This study aims to examine the properties of four major cryptocurrencies and how they can be used as a simpler alternative mode of hedging foreign exchange (FX) risks as compared to existing mainstream financial risk management techniques. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a combination of visual data representations and the classic Fama and Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings The findings show that cryptocurrencies can be a more effective hedge against FX risks as compared to other common hedging instruments and/or techniques such as gold or a diversified currency portfolio. Research limitations/implications The conclusions were arrived at based only on a small group of cryptocurrency, i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or ZCash might exhibit different properties. Practical implications Cryptocurrencies can be cost-effective and cost-efficient instruments that provide a solid hedge for investors and/or firms that are exposed to global FX volatility. Its ease of trade and virtually zero barriers to entry makes it an easily accessible alternative hedge instrument as compared to more complex items such as derivatives. Originality/value If cryptocurrencies are to be accepted into mainstream usage, a detailed examination of its various uses is necessary. In particular, as they are often touted to be the future of currency, its properties and price behavior relative to other mainstream financial instruments need to be well-understood, not only by finance professionals but also by laypersons.
Blockchain is a distributed digital ledger system that establishes transparent contract processes and facilitates secure but trusted business transactions. Policy‐makers around the world are intrigued by the potential of this emerging technology to solve policy problems, including the challenges of the transition away from centralised, linear models of energy generation and consumption towards decentralised and distributed energy systems. Blockchain has also been promoted as a mechanism to transform carbon markets, yet the focus in this area to date has been on using blockchain to create new carbon market schemes. This paper addresses an important research gap by asking how blockchain could be applied to an existing carbon market. To answer this question, the study uses an established design process to develop an Australian carbon market blockchain design. The paper finds that this design could improve the efficiency, equity and effectiveness of the Australian carbon market. This paper makes an important research contribution to carbon market policy development by developing a blockchain design that could improve how an existing carbon market functions, and the findings presented here are relevant to government and industry stakeholders globally.
Exploring dependence structures between financial time series has been important within a wide range of applications. The main aim of this paper is to examine dependence relationships among five well-known cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Stella—by a copula directional dependence (CDD). By employing a neural network autoregression model to avoid the serial dependence in each individual cryptocurrency, we generate residuals of the fitted models with time series of daily log-returns in percentage of the five cryptocurrencies and then we apply a Gaussian copula marginal beta regression model to the residuals to explore the CDD. The results show that the CDD from Bitcoin to Litecoin is highest among all ordered directional dependencies and the CDDs from Ethereum to the other four cryptocurrencies are relatively higher than the CDDs to Ethereum from those cryptocurrencies. This finding implies that the return shocks of Bitcoin have the most effect on Litecoin and the return shocks of Ethereum relatively influence the shocks on the other four cryptocurrencies instead of being affected by them. This allows investors to build the market-timing strategies by observing the directional flow of return shocks among cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin jest jedną z ważnych innowacji finansowych ostatnich lat, będącą wynikiem rozwoju technologicznego i informatyzacji rynku finansowego. Mimo stosunkowo krótkiej historii tej kryptowaluty, wykształciło się wiele giełd wyspecjalizowanych w jej obrocie, a na rynku finansowym pojawiły się pierwsze próby utworzenia opartych na niej instrumentów – pasywnie i aktywnie zarządzanych exchange-traded funds. W artykule przedstawiono te fundusze oraz, ze względu na brak dywersyfikacji ich portfeli, podjęto próbę określenia, czy inwestycja za ich pomocą jest lepsza od bezpośredniego lokowania środków na rynku bitcoina. Ponadto zidentyfikowano podstawowe czynniki ryzyka, związane z inwestowaniem w analizowane fundusze oraz dokonano ich klasyfikacji.
Ángel Enrique Chico Frías, Edwin Javier Santamaría Freire
Market forces are not the only influence on currency exchange rates. They can change due to monetary and fiscal policies among other international repercussions. Bitcoin, for its independence from all the central banks worldwide, has a natural shield that will change the direction in the economic policy of the industrialized countries. The research aim is to analyze the influence that indicators and financial assets can have on Bitcoin. The study tries to confirm the reasons why it has begun to be the solution in economies with unstable currencies.The behavior of the different agents appears as the core of the study. It is creating a backward 5-year work horizon. The data are continuous values, and they are the numerical variables for Pearson correlation analysis. The time series in fixed periods are the basis for the study of projections. Besides, the Relative Strength Index or Relative Strength Index called Welles Wilder is useful in the research. Bitcoin does not get influenced by the Dow Jones, gold price, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The independence in the creation of this cryptocurrency could in the long term end up turning it into a currency of world use. As a result, the understanding and management of this cryptocurrency could generate new ways of building the future monetary system. The new direction of the economy will be registered in the blockchain and not in a central bank.