Blockchain Papers

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4,843 papersLast indexed Aug 31, 2026
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Feb 19, 2020·Economic Modelling
115 cites
BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?

Meng Qin, Chi‐Wei Su, Ran Tao

No abstract is available for this record.

Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Feb 10, 2020·Financial Innovation
63 cites
Predicting changes in Bitcoin price using grey system theory

Mahboubeh Faghih Mohammadi Jalali, Hanif Heidari

Abstract Bitcoin is currently the leading global provider of cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency allows users to safely and anonymously use the Internet to perform digital currency transfers and storage. In recent years, the Bitcoin network has attracted investors, businesses, and corporations while facilitating services and product deals. Moreover, Bitcoin has made itself the dominant source of decentralized cryptocurrency. While considerable research has been done concerning Bitcoin network analysis, limited research has been conducted on predicting the Bitcoin price. The purpose of this study is to predict the price of Bitcoin and changes therein using the grey system theory. The first order grey model (GM (1,1)) is used for this purpose. It uses a first-order differential equation to model the trend of time series. The results show that the GM (1,1) model predicts Bitcoin’s price accurately and that one can earn a maximum profit confidence level of approximately 98% by choosing the appropriate time frame and by managing investment assets.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Grey System Theory Applications
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Feb 5, 2020·Financial Management
100 cites
Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals

Andrew L. Detzel, Hong Liu, Jack Strauss, Guofu Zhou · 5 authors

Abstract What predicts returns on assets with “hard‐to‐value” fundamentals such as Bitcoin and stocks in new industries? We are the first to propose an equilibrium model that shows how technical analysis can arise endogenously via rational learning, providing a theoretical foundation for using technical analysis in practice. We document that ratios of prices to their moving averages forecast daily Bitcoin returns in and out of sample. Trading strategies based on these ratios generate an economically significant alpha and Sharpe ratio gains relative to a buy‐and‐hold position. Similar results hold for small‐cap, young‐firm, and low analyst‐coverage stocks as well as NASDAQ stocks during the dotcom era.

Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Feb 4, 2020·Journal of Futures Markets
89 cites
The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets

Oliver Entrop, Bart Frijns, Marco Seruset

Abstract This paper investigates whether market quality, uncertainty, investor sentiment and attention, and macroeconomic news affect bitcoin price discovery in spot and futures markets. Over the period December 2017–March 2019, we find significant time variation in the contribution to price discovery of the two markets. Increases in price discovery are mainly driven by relative trading costs and volume, and uncertainty to a lesser extent. Additionally, medium‐sized trades contain most information in terms of price discovery. Finally, higher news‐based bitcoin sentiment increases the informational role of the futures market, while attention and macroeconomic news have no impact on price discovery.

Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
Feb 1, 2020·Global Energy Law and Sustainability
13 cites
Distributed Ledger Technology for Governance of Sustainability Transparency in the Global Energy Value Chain

Lauren Downes, Chris Reed

Transparency is one of the most useful tools to support sustainability in the energy value chain. By providing information about the sustainability of the activities of actors, transparency creates incentives to improve sustainability. This paper explains how blockchain technology might be used to build a global transparency system for sustainability information in the energy value chain, using market based instruments (MBIs) as its testbed. While the energy value chain is global, management of sustainability is not. Instead, sustainability is managed through a complex system of independent, sometimes overlapping, structures, with both mandatory and voluntary elements. MBIs such as emissions trading schemes, green certificates and labelling programs facilitate sustainability through market incentives. However, the transparency of MBIs, and so the information which can be derived from them, is inconsistent, fragmented across national schemes, and not readily accessible. The problems that arise from that are compounded by the regulations that govern MBI programs, which set out the information to be collected and restrict how widely it can be shared. Blockchain technology offers a tool which could be used to collect and share sustainability information better. This would increase the effectiveness of sustainability incentives through market responses such as consumer choice and investor pressure, and make MBI schemes operate more efficiently. However, the implementation of blockchain for MBIs is not to be done against a blank canvas – it must be consistent with existing governance requirements. If the existing regulatory regimes governing MBIs are not respected, developments based on blockchain are unlikely to be adopted.

Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Jan 29, 2020·Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences
23 cites
On forecasting the intraday Bitcoin price using ensemble of variational mode decomposition and generalized additive model

Samuel Asante Gyamerah

High frequency Bitcoin price series are often non-linear and non-stationary and hence forecasting the price of Bitcoin directly or by transformation using statistical models is subject to large errors. This paper presents an ensemble model using variational mode decomposition (VMD) and Generalized additive model (GAM) to forecast intraday Bitcoin price. To evaluate the performance of the constructed model, it is compared with an ensemble of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and GAM. The results showed that VMD-GAM model performed better than the EMD-GAM ensemble model in terms of three evaluation metrics (root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and bias) used.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Original source
Jan 28, 2020·Frontiers in Blockchain
8 cites
Analysing Social Media Forums to Discover Potential Causes of Phasic Shifts in Cryptocurrency Price Series

Andrew Burnie, Emine Yılmaz, Tomaso Aste

The recent extreme volatility in cryptocurrency prices occurred in the setting of popular social media forums devoted to the discussion of cryptocurrencies. We develop a framework that discovers potential causes of phasic shifts in the price movement captured by social media discussions. This draws on principles developed in healthcare epidemiology where, similarly, only observational data are available. Such causes may have a major, one-off effect or recurring effects on the trend in the price series. We find a one-off effect of regulatory bans on bitcoin, the repeated effects of rival innovations on ether and the influence of technical traders, captured through discussion of market price, on both cryptocurrencies. The results for Bitcoin differ from Ethereum, which is consistent with the observed differences in the timing of the highest price and the price phases. This framework could be applied to a wide range of cryptocurrency price series where there exists a relevant social media text source. Identified causes with a recurring effect may have value in predictive modelling, whilst one-off causes may provide insight into unpredictable black swan events that can have a major impact on a system.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Jan 22, 2020·Alanya Akademik Bakış
6 cites
Bitcoin Piyasasında Haftanın Günü Anomalisi

Samet Evci

Kripto para piyasası kısa dönemde çok hızlı bir gelişim göstermiş hem yatırımcıların hem de akademisyenlerin ilgisini çekmiştir. Bu piyasada en fazla piyasa değerine sahip kripto para birimi Bitcoin’dir. Gerek geleneksel finansal piyasaların işleyişinden farklı bir piyasa işleyişine sahip olması gerekse para yaratma sürecinde farklı bir sistemi kullanması yatırımcılar açısından Bitcoin fiyatlarında değişime yol açan faktörleri anlamayı gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma ile Bitcoin fiyatlarında haftanın günü anomalisinin varlığının araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bitcoin getirilerinde haftanın günü anomalisi, 2013-2019 yıllarına ait günlük fiyatlar kullanılarak asimetrik GARCH modeliyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular Bitcoin getirileri üzerinde Pazartesi, Perşembe ve Pazar günlerinin negatif etkileri olduğunu ve en fazla kaybın Perşembe günü gerçekleştiğini ortaya koymuştur.

Open access
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Jan 10, 2020·International Petroleum Technology Conference
7 cites
Blockchain Applications in Midstream Oil and Gas Industry

Heba Kadry

Blockchain is believed to be a foundational technology that will create foundations in the economic and financial systems in a way that will revolutionize the business models and the organizational structures. Blockchain has opened a series of possibilities for blockchain-based innovative applications that are extended to midstream Oil and Gas industry. In the era of the digital revolution, the need for an advanced information and communication technology has become crucial in midstream oil and gas industry to be able support increased challenges of decarbonization, decentralization, digitalization, and security. Blockchain is proposed to be an integrated platform through a series of different applications, such as, metering, billing, carbon trading, security, supply chain management, and performance-based contracts. The opportunities and impacts of utilizing blockchain-based applications will be demonstrated including economic, environmental, operational and social related benefits. Blockchain is disruptive technology, however, the current applications are in early development phase. Key improvement areas have to be assessed to reach the desired levels of scalability, decentralization and security. The paper concludes that this technology has significant potential to enhance the efficiency and maximize the profit that needs further digging from both research and industry. This work provides an overview of the blockchain technology and working principles. It describes the novelty and innovation that blockchains brings to industry, especially when combined with smart contracts. Also, the paper explores blockchain potential for the midstream oil and gas industry and investigates the state-of-the-art current business cases. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the earliest works to explore blockchain-based applications in midstream oil and gas industry.

Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Jan 8, 2020·Economic Papers A journal of applied economics and policy
33 cites
Adoption of Blockchain Technology in the Australian Grains Trade: An Assessment of Potential Economic Effects

Don Gunasekera, Ernesto Valenzuela

Recent analysis of Blockchain use has highlighted considerable potential productivity gains arising from lower transaction costs between buyers and sellers of goods. This has been shown by recent examples of Blockchain use in the Australian grains sector. In this paper, we have further developed and quantified this concept of productivity gain by undertaking several illustrative scenarios using a general equilibrium model of the global economy. Our analysis indicates that an assumed modest growth (five per cent) in productivity due to Blockchain use in the grains sector could raise output by eight per cent over the medium term. If this is accompanied by Blockchain use in the Australian finance sector, grains output could reach ten per cent. This reflects the effect of reduction in transaction costs due to the use of Blockchain technology as a “distributed ledger technology” in grain trading. Further, it is anticipated that the wider effects of Blockchain‐driven productivity enhancement of the Australian finance sector could contribute to approximately 2.5 per cent increase in GDP in the medium term, relative to what would otherwise be.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Taxation and Compliance Studies
Original source