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3,636 results · page 142 of 152
Igor Makarov, Antoinette Schoar
No abstract is available for this record.
Shahar Somin, Goren Gordon, Yaniv Altshuler
No abstract is available for this record.
Sven Thies, Péter Molnár
No abstract is available for this record.
Cüneyt Gürcan Akçora, Asim Kumer Dey, Yulia R. Gel, Murat Kantarcıoğlu
No abstract is available for this record.
Carlos Trucíos
No abstract is available for this record.
Thomas Walther, Tony Klein, Elie Bouri
We apply the GARCH-MIDAS framework to forecast the daily, weekly, and monthly volatility of five highly capitalized Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Etherium, Litecoin, Ripple, and Stellar) as well as the Cryptocurrency index CRIX. Based on the prediction quality, we determine the most important exogenous drivers of volatility in Cryptocurrency markets. We find that the Global Real Economic Activity outperforms all other economic and financial drivers under investigation. We also show that the Global Real Economic Activity provides superior volatility predictions for both, bull and bear markets. In addition, the average forecast combination results in low loss functions. This indicates that the information content of exogenous factors is time-varying and the model averaging approach diversifies the impact of single drivers.
Wang Chun Wei
In recent years, Tether issuances (or 'grants') have increased significantly, which correlated broadly with a significant rise in Bitcoin valuation. This paper examines the impact of cryptocurrency issuances on subsequent cryptocurrency returns. It is argued that as Tether is the undisputed 'stable coin', the minting of new Tether acts similarly to monetary expansion in cryptocurrency markets, inflating the prices of Bitcoin. We construct a VAR model and show contrary to investor expectations, Tether issuances do not impact subsequent Bitcoin returns, however, they do impact traded volumes. We also document an increase in Tether trading following a subsequent decrease in Bitcoin returns. This illustrates investor preferences for lower volatility crypto-assets in periods following negative Bitcoin returns.
Efthymia Symitsi, Konstantinos Chalvatzis
No abstract is available for this record.
Emiliano Pagnotta, Andrea Buraschi
We address the valuation of bitcoins and other blockchain tokens in a new type of production economy: a decentralized financial network (DN). An identifying property of these assets is that contributors to the DN trust (miners) receive units of the same asset used by consumers of DN services. Therefore, the overall production (hashrate) and the bitcoin price are jointly determined. We characterize the demand for bitcoins and the supply of hashrate and show that the equilibrium price is obtained by solving a fixed-point problem and study its determinants. Price-hashrate “spirals” amplify demand and supply shocks.
Halvor Aarhus Aalborg, Péter Molnár, Jon Erik de Vries
No abstract is available for this record.
Bruno Biais, Christophe Bisière, Matthieu Bouvard, Catherine Casamatta · 5 authors
ABSTRACT We offer a general equilibrium analysis of cryptocurrency pricing. The fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is its stream of net transactional benefits, which depend on its future prices. This implies that, in addition to fundamentals, equilibrium prices reflect sunspots. This in turn implies multiple equilibria and extrinsic volatility, that is, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate even when fundamentals are constant. To match our model to the data, we construct indices measuring the net transactional benefits of Bitcoin. In our calibration, part of the variations in Bitcoin returns reflects changes in net transactional benefits, but a larger share reflects extrinsic volatility.
Shaen Corbet, Brian M. Lucey, Maurice Peat, Samuel A. Vigne
No abstract is available for this record.
Lee A. Smales, Dirk G. Baur
No abstract is available for this record.
Andrew Urquhart
No abstract is available for this record.
Andrew Urquhart, Hanxiong Zhang
No abstract is available for this record.
Linda Schilling, Harald Uhlig
In a novel model of an endowment economy, we analyze coexistence and competition between traditional fiat money (Dollar) and another intrinsically worthless medium of exchange, not controlled by a central bank, such as Bitcoin. Agents can trade consumption goods in either currency or hold on to currency for speculative purposes. A central bank ensures a Dollar inflation target, while Bitcoin mining is decentralized via proof-of-work. We analyze Bitcoin price evolution and interaction between the Bitcoin price and monetary policy which targets the Dollar. We obtain a fundamental pricing equation, which in its simplest form implies that Bitcoin prices form a martingale. We derive conditions, under which Bitcoin speculation cannot happen, and the fundamental pricing equation must hold. We show that the block rewards are not a tax on Bitcoin holders: they are financed by Dollar taxes imposed by the Dollar central bank. We discuss monetary policy implications and characterize the range of equilibria.
Tony Klein, Hien Pham Thu, Thomas Walther
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are establishing themselves as an investment asset and are often named the New Gold. This study, however, shows that the two assets could barely be more di?erent. Firstly, we analyze and compare conditional variance properties of Bitcoin and Gold as well as other assets and ?nd di?erences in their structure. Secondly, we implement a BEKK-GARCH model to estimate time-varying conditional correlations. Gold plays an important role in ?nancial markets with ?ight-to-quality in times of market distress. Our results show that Bitcoin behaves as the exact opposite and it positively correlates with downward markets. Lastly, we analyze the properties of Bitcoin as portfolio component and ?nd no evidence for hedging capabilities. We conclude that Bitcoin and Gold feature fundamentally di?erent properties as assets and linkages to equity markets. Our results hold for the broad cryptocurrency index CRIX. As of now, Bitcoin does not re?ect any distinctive properties of Gold other than asymmetric response in variance.
John M. Griffin, Amin Shams
ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, influenced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom. Using algorithms to analyze blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. The flow is attributable to one entity, clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric autocorrelations in Bitcoin, and suggests insufficient Tether reserves before month‐ends. Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply‐based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices.
Viviane Y. Naïmy, Marianne R. Hayek
This paper is the first to forecast the volatility of the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. It assesses and compares the predictive ability of the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1), the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), and the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) (1,1). Models' parameters are first estimated from the in sample Bitcoin/USD exchange rate returns and in sample volatility is calculated. Out of sample volatility is forecasted afterward. Estimated volatilities are then compared to realised volatilities relying on error statistics, after which the models are ranked. The EGARCH (1,1) model outperforms the GARCH (1,1) and EWMA models in both in sample and out of sample contexts with increased accuracy in the out of sample period. Results show an original reflection concern with regard to the nature of the Bitcoin, which behaves differently than traditional currencies. Given the early-stage behaviour of the Bitcoin, results might change in the future.
Salim Lahmiri, Stelios Bekiros, Antonio Salvi
No abstract is available for this record.
Toan Luu Duc Huynh, Sang Phu Nguyen, Duy Duong
This paper examines the movement of cryptocurrencies’ return based on price. This volatility can spread to others of the same kind. Currently, the more cryptocurrencies are traded in market, the more chances are available for investors. The author wonders whether contagion risk among these cryptocurrencies happens or not in the event of crashing. We also introduce one empirical evidence of the mutual influence on these cryptocurrencies using Copulas approach. The findings show that all pairs have the structure dependence with Kendall-plots, particularly strong left tail dependence with Chi-plots. It also means the existence of contagion risk among these cryptocurrencies. The three methodologies namely Kendall-plots, Chi-plots and Copulas estimation produce consistent results. Therefore, the investors should carefully perform portfolio diversification to avoid contagious phenomenon.
Yonghong Jiang, He Nie, Weihua Ruan
No abstract is available for this record.
Shaen Corbet, Brian M. Lucey, Larisa Yarovaya
No abstract is available for this record.
Shaen Corbet, Grace McHugh, Andrew Meegan
The emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 has received considerable attention surrounding the validity of cryptocurrencies as a viable and, in some jurisdictions, a legal currency alternative. Despite widespread concern that these cryptocurrencies are fostering the environment within which a substantial bubble can occur, it is important to analyze whether these new assets are behaving similarly to major international currencies. This paper investigates the effects of international monetary policy changes on bitcoin returns using a GARCH (1.1) estimation model. The results indicate that monetary policy decisions based on interest rates taken by the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States significantly impact upon bitcoin returns. After controlling for international effects, we find significant evidence of volatility effects driven by United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Japanese quantitative easing announcements. These results show that, despite its nature and ideals, bitcoin seems to be subject to the same economic factors as traditional fiat currencies, and is not entirely unaffected by government policies. This result has implications for investors using bitcoin as a hedging or diversification tool. In addition, we contribute to the existing debate regarding the classification of bitcoin as an asset class, by illustrating that bitcoin volatility exhibits various reactions that bear resemblance to both currency pairs and store-of-value assets.