We examine the short‐term and long‐term effects of hacking events on bitcoin return. Additionally, we attempt to find out if investors can benefit from these events by adopting and modifying the models proposed by Baur et al. (2018) [ Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 54 , 177–189] who compare the performance of bitcoin against FX returns and the S&P500. The results show that hacking events present an opportunity for investors to make a profit if they invest in bitcoin, stocks and currencies. Such an opportunity, however, does not last for long.
Liquid markets are driven by information asymmetries and the injection of new information in trades into market prices. Where market matching uses an electronic limit order book (LOB), limit orders traders may make suboptimal price and trade decisions based on new but incomplete information arriving with market orders. This paper measures the information asymmetries in Bitcoin trading limit order books on the Kraken platform, and compares these to prior studies on equities LOB markets. In limit order book markets, traders have the option of waiting to supply liquidity through limit orders, or immediately demanding liquidity through market orders or aggressively priced limit orders. In my multivariate analysis, I control for volatility, trading volume, trading intensity and order imbalance to isolate the effect of trade informativeness on book liquidity. The current research offers the first empirical study of Glosten (1994) to yield a positive, and credibly large transaction cost parameter. Trade and LOB datasets in this study were several orders of magnitude larger than any of the prior studies. Given the poor small sample properties of GMM, it is likely that this substantial increase in size of datasets is essential for validating the model. The research strongly supports Glosten's seminal theoretical model of limit order book markets, showing that these are valid models of Bitcoin markets. This research empirically tested and confirmed trade informativeness as a prime driver of market liquidity in the Bitcoin market.
Purpose This paper aims to analyze the time-varying connectedness of gold-backed cryptocurrencies and gold. This study determines the volatility spillovers in these two asset classes and the performance of bivariate portfolios based on net pairwise spillovers. Design/methodology/approach This research uses two Islamic and four conventional gold-backed cryptocurrencies and gold as variables. GJR-GARCH method under corrected DCC (cDCC) of Aielli (2013) evaluates the dynamic connectedness. Additionally, the spillovers are created using the dynamic connectedness of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). A network-based spillover of Diebold and Yılmaz, (2014) is also made. A dynamic optimal weights strategy optimized with DCC-t-Copula determines bivariate portfolios’ performances. In general, there are 21 bivariate portfolios. Findings The outbreak of COVID-19 increases the dynamic connectedness of gold and gold-backed cryptocurrencies, which indicates a contagion effect. The results show that gold is the net volatility receiver during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, a portfolio composed of gold and gold-backed cryptocurrency provides high profitability performance but zero hedge effectiveness under optimal weights strategy. Practical implications According to bivariate portfolios based on net pairwise spillovers, gold-backed cryptocurrencies' investors should not add gold to their portfolio during the pandemic because it is a net receiver of risk from the cryptocurrencies. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper to create bivariate portfolios composed of gold-backed cryptocurrencies and their underlying asset using DCC-t-Copula.
In this paper, we examine the presence of herding in cryptocurrency market for four distinct sub-periods (Pre and During COVID-19 period, bear and bull markets) using daily closing prices of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Stellar and Tether) from April 20, 2019 to January 31, 2021. The study employs cross-sectional absolute deviations (CSAD) model to test herd behavior and the results of the study provide evidence of herd behavior in the whole market for the selected period under study. The study also proofs the presence of herding during COVID-19 period and in positive market returns. These indicate that, investors in the cryptocurrency market, during COVID-19 periods, and in bullish market are inclined to the investment behavior of other peer investors in the market. The study is significant to investors, regulators and players in the cryptocurrency market so as to deepen their understanding of herding behavior since herding is thought to increase the volatility of the market. The study is significant to investors, regulators and players in the cryptocurrency market so as to deepen their understanding of herding behavior since herding is thought to increase the volatility of the market.
This study examines the impact of investor sentiment on cryptocurrency returns. We use a direct survey-based measure that captures the investors’ sentiment on Bitcoins. This direct measure of Bitcoin investor sentiment is obtained from the Sentix database. The results of the study found that the Bitcoin prices experience appreciation when investors are optimistic about Bitcoin. Bitcoin sentiment has significant power in predicting the Bitcoin prices after controlling for the relevant factors. There is also evidence that the sentiment of the dominant cryptocurrency, i.e., Bitcoin, influences the price of other cryptocurrencies. Further, we extend our analysis by investigating the impact of equity market sentiment on cryptocurrency returns. We proxy equity market sentiment using two measures viz: Baker-Wurgler sentiment Index and the VIX Index. When the equity market investors’ sentiment is bearish, cryptocurrency prices rise, indicating that cryptocurrency can act as an alternative avenue for investment. Our results remain unaffected after controlling for potential factors that could impact cryptocurrency prices.
The gold mine has been a commodity used for thousands of years, today it is also an investment tool with the highest reliability. However; cryptocurrencies that are recently used are affecting our portfolio. Bitcoin is the most traded cryptocurrency. Since there are alternative investment instruments involved in portfolios, the relationship between these two independent values inspired the emergence of this study. The aim of this study was to investigate whether there is a causality-cointegration relationship between daily Bitcoin prices and gold prices for the periods between 10,01,2014 and 11,12,2020. In the application section, Toda Yamamoto causality and the Maki Cointegration test were applied. According to the results of the Toda Yamamoto causality test, there is a two-way causality relationship. According to the results of the Maki cointegration test, there was no long-term relationship between the series. As a result, it is expected that in the long term, investors will have a risk-reducing effect by including both investment instruments in the same portfolio.
This study uses a novel perspective to examine the causal connectedness between green bonds and other conventional assets, including clean energy, price of CO2 emission allowances, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500 stock market covering from January 2013 to March 2019. We apply the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Non-linear Granger causality and Transfer Entropy to detect possible changes in the causal direction between green bonds and other considered variables. We find a bidirectional relationship between green bonds, S&P 500, and Bitcoin markets, while green bonds have a unidirectional connection with the price of CO2 emission allowances.
Francisco Jareño, María de la O González, Raquel López, Ana Rosa Ramos
This study explores potential non-linear and asymmetric interdependencies between oil price shocks and leading cryptocurrency returns. In addition, this research splits changes in crude oil prices into three relevant components: risk, demand, and supply shocks. By applying the NARDL methodology, this paper examines the connection between oil and cryptocurrencies in the period between November 20, 2018 and June 30, 2020, conducting a study of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results confirm that demand shocks show the greatest connection with the returns of the cryptocurrencies analysed. In addition, both short-term and long-term results show a greater interdependence between oil and cryptocurrencies in periods of economic turbulence, such as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus crisis.
This study examines the connectedness between the US yield curve components (i.e., level, slope, and curvature), exchange rates, and the historical volatility of the exchange rates of the main safe-haven fiat currencies (Canada, Switzerland, EURO, Japan, and the UK) and the leading cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin. Results of the static analysis show that the level and slope of the yield curve are net transmitters of shocks to both the exchange rate and its volatility. The exchange rate of the Euro and the volatility of the Euro and the Canadian dollar exchange rate are net transmitters of shocks. Meanwhile, the curvature of the yield curve and the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound act mainly as net receivers. Our static connectedness analysis shows that Bitcoin is mainly independent of shocks from the yield curve's level, slope, and curvature, and from any main currency investigated. These findings hint that Bitcoin might provide hedging benefits. However, similar to the static analysis, our dynamic analysis shows that during different periods and particularly in stressful times, Bitcoin is far from being isolated from other currencies or the yield curve components. The dynamic analysis allows us to observe Bitcoin's connectedness in times of stress. Evidence supporting this contention is the substantially increased connectedness due to policy shocks, political uncertainty, and systemic crisis, implying no empirical support for Bitcoin's safe-haven property during stress times. The increased connectedness in the dynamic analysis compared with the static approach implies that in normal times and especially in stressful times, Bitcoin has the property of a diversifier. The results may have important implications for investors and policymakers regarding their risk monitoring and their assets allocation and investment strategies.
Chidi U. Okonkwo, Bright O. Osu, Farid Chighoub, Ben I. Oruh
This paper investigated the co-movement between the bitcoin (BTC) and the exchange rates of some African currencies to the USD (United States Dollars) using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC). This was done for the noisy as well as the denoised series. The CWT for the noisy series suggests high volatility for those who hold the currencies for the short term and low volatility for those who hold the currencies for a long-term period. The CWT of the denoised series suggests that volatility at low frequency is driven by noise, while volatility at a higher frequency is driven by market forces. The wavelet coherence suggests that in the presence of noise, bitcoin will be a hedge for the currencies. However, in the absence of noise, bitcoin is a haven for the Egyptian EGP, followed by the Algerian DZD, then the Nigerian NGN, and may not be a haven for the South African ZAR.
This study examines how Bitcoin’s trading characteristics react to the COVID-19 pandemic, using detailed futures trading data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The results show that volume-weighted Bitcoin futures return responds positively to the spikes of public interest. Meanwhile, the surges of pandemic information do not harm market quality. Volume, bid-ask spread, and trading frequency remain stable, indicating that the positive price reaction is not a result of a few small uninformed trades. Bitcoin's conditional beta on the S&P 500 index drops to near zero, while the conditional beta on gold more than doubles. These results indicate that traders have been using Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset after the pandemic outbreak.
Ghassen El Montasser, Lanouar Charfeddine, Adel Benhamed
This paper compares the degree of cryptocurrency market efficiency during the pre- and post COVID-19 pandemic with the bubble and non-bubble periods of cryptocurrency markets. Furthermore, it examines and clusters eighteen cryptocurrencies by exploring their market efficiency similarity. Comparing the cryptocurrency bubble periods with the COVID-19 pandemic, the results indicate that this pandemic has the highest impact on cryptocurrency market efficiency. Interestingly, using the dynamic time warping clustering approach, we found evidence on the presence of three clusters that essentially represent mining coins, non-mining coins and token categorizations .
Fei Teng, Qi Zhang, Ge Wang, Jiangfeng Liu · 5 authors
Summary The disruptive nature of blockchain technology has drawn considerable interest from different types of stakeholders. It is adopted in numerous sectors with the ability to openly and securely verify, track, and exchange data. The energy blockchain, a term used when blockchain technology is applied in the energy sector, is considered as having the potential to develop a decentralized, digitized, and decarbonized energy management system. The article presents an overview of the development progress from three perspectives, including academic research, the deployment of companies and pilot projects, and government support policies. Then a different taxonomy is developed to demonstrate and highlighted the different applications. Finally, the future trends and challenges hindering the effective implementation of energy blockchain are discussed. The results show that energy blockchain is an effective innovation technology to accelerate the transformation of global energy structure. Multinational cooperation and government‐leading are the basis of large‐scale deployment of energy blockchain. The improvement of regulatory mechanisms and standards is the key to the commercial application of energy blockchain. This study is a comprehensive analysis of energy blockchain applications, which is expected to support decision making for its future development.
The Bitcoin market has become a research hotspot after the outbreak of Covid-19. In this paper, we focus on the relationships between the Bitcoin spot and futures. Specifically, we adopt the vector autoregression-dynamic correlation coefficient-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VAR-DCC-GARCH) model and vector autoregression-Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VAR-BEKK-GARCH) models and calculate the hedging effectiveness (HE) value to investigate the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover and assess the risk reduction of the Bitcoin futures to spot. The empirical results show that the Bitcoin spot and futures markets are highly connected; second, there exists a bi-directional volatility spillover between the spot and futures market; third, the HE value is equal to 0.6446, which indicates that Bitcoin futures can indeed hedge the risks in the Bitcoin spot market. Furthermore, we update the data to the post-Covid-19 period to do the robustness checks. The results do not change our conclusion that Bitcoin futures can hedge the risks in the Bitcoin spot market, and besides, the post-Covid-19 results indicate that the hedging ability of Bitcoin futures increased. Finally, we test whether the gold futures can be used as a Bitcoin spot market hedge, and we further control other cryptocurrencies to illustrate the hedging ability of the Bitcoin futures to the Bitcoin spot. Overall, the empirical results in this paper will surely benefit the related investors in the Bitcoin market.