Abeer ElBahrawy, Laura Alessandretti, Andrea Baronchelli
The production and consumption of information about Bitcoin and other digital-, or crypto- , currencies have grown together with their market capitalization. However, a systematic investigation of the relationship between online attention and market dynamics across multiple digital currencies is still lacking. Here, we quantify the interplay between the attention towards digital currencies in Wikipedia and their market performance. We consider the entire edit history of currency-related pages and their view history from July 2015. First, we quantify the evolution of the cryptocurrency presence in Wikipedia by analyzing the editorial activity and the network of co-edited pages. We find that a small community of tightly connected editors is responsible for most of the production of information about cryptocurrencies in Wikipedia. Then, we show that a simple trading strategy informed by Wikipedia views performs better than baseline strategies, in terms of returns on investment, for most of the covered period although the ‘buy and hold strategy’ dominates during the periods of explosive market expansion. Our results contribute to the recent literature on the interplay between online information and investment markets, and we anticipate it will be of interest for researchers as well as investors.
Mehrnoosh Mirtaheri, Sami Abu-El-Haija, Fred Morstatter, Greg Ver Steeg · 5 authors
Interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, digital or virtual currencies that are used as a medium for financial transactions, has grown tremendously in recent years. The anonymity surrounding these currencies makes investors particularly susceptible to fraud---such as ``pump and dump'' scams---where the goal is to artificially inflate the perceived worth of a currency, luring victims into investing before the fraudsters can sell their holdings. Because of the speed and relative anonymity offered by social platforms such as Twitter and Telegram, social media has become a preferred platform for scammers who wish to spread false hype about the cryptocurrency they are trying to pump. In this work we propose and evaluate a computational approach that can automatically identify pump and dump scams as they unfold by combining information across social media platforms. We also develop a multi-modal approach for predicting whether a particular pump attempt will succeed or not. Finally, we analyze the prevalence of bots in cryptocurrency related tweets, and observe a significant increase in bot activity during the pump attempts.
Bitcoin's Lightning Network (LN) is a scalability solution for Bitcoin allowing transactions to be issued with negligible fees and settled instantly at scale. In order to use LN, funds need to be locked in payment channels on the Bitcoin blockchain (Layer-1) for subsequent use in LN (Layer-2). LN is comprised of many payment channels forming a payment channel network. LN's promise is that relatively few payment channels already enable anyone to efficiently, securely and privately route payments across the whole network. In this paper, we quantify the structural properties of LN and argue that LN's current topological properties can be ameliorated in order to improve the security of LN, enabling it to reach its true potential.
The blockchain technology promises to transform finance, money and even governments. However, analyses of blockchain applicability and robustness typically focus on isolated systems whose actors contribute mainly by running the consensus algorithm. Here, we highlight the importance of considering trustless platforms within the broader ecosystem that includes social and communication networks. As an example, we analyse the flash-crash observed on 21st June 2017 in the Ethereum platform and show that a major phenomenon of social coordination led to a catastrophic cascade of events across several interconnected systems. We propose the concept of ``emergent centralisation'' to describe situations where a single system becomes critically important for the functioning of the whole ecosystem, and argue that such situations are likely to become more and more frequent in interconnected socio-technical systems. We anticipate that the systemic approach we propose will have implications for future assessments of trustless systems and call for the attention of policy-makers on the fragility of our interconnected and rapidly changing world.
Johannes Beck, Roberta Huang, David Lindner, Tian Guo · 7 authors
The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on the set of cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track relevant news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with tweets from social media, (ii) track their intraday tweet activity and (iii) explore different machine learning models for predicting the number of the article mentions on Twitter within the first 24 hours after its publication. We compare several machine learning models, such as linear extrapolation, linear and random forest autoregressive models, and a sequence-to-sequence neural network. We find that the random forest autoregressive model behaves comparably to more complex models in the majority of tasks.
Mohsin Ur Rahman, Fabrizio Baiardi, Barbara Guidi, Laura Ricci
Decentralized Online Social Networks (DOSNs) have been proposed as an alternative solution to the current centralized Online Social Networks (OSNs). Online Social Networks are based on centralized architecture (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, or Google+), while DOSNs do not have a service provider that acts as central authority and users have more control over their information. Several DOSNs have been proposed during the last years. However, the decentralization of the OSN requires efficient solutions for protecting the privacy of users, and to evaluate the trust between users. Blockchain represents a disruptive technology which has been applied to several fields, among these also to Social Networks. In this paper, we propose a manageable, user-driven and auditable access control framework for DOSNs using blockchain technology. In the proposed approach, the blockchain is used as a support for the definition of privacy policies. The resource owner uses the public key of the subject to define flexible role-based access control policies, while the private key associated with the subject's Ethereum account is used to decrypt the private data once access permission is validated on the blockchain. We evaluate our solution by exploiting the Rinkeby Ethereum testnet to deploy the smart contract, and to evaluate its performance. Experimental results show the feasibility of the proposed scheme in achieving auditable and user-driven access control via smart contract deployed on the Blockchain.
The online social networks facilitate naturally for the users to share information. On these platforms, each user shares information based on his or her interests. The particular information being shared by a user may be legitimate or fake. Sometimes a misinformation, propagated by users and group can create chaos or in some cases, might leads to cases of riots. Nowadays the third party like ALT news and Cobrapost check the information authenticity, but it takes too much time to validate the news. Therefore, a robust and new system is required to check the information authenticity within the network, to stop the propagation of misinformation. In this paper, we propose a blockchain based framework for sharing the information securely at the peer level. In the blockchain model, a chain is created by combining blocks of information. Each node of network propagates the information based on its credibility to its peer nodes. The credibility of a node will vary according to the respective information. Trust is calculated between sender and receiver in two ways:(i) Local trust used for sharing information at the peer level and (ii) global trust is used for a credibility check of each user in the network. We evaluate our framework using real dataset derived from Facebook. Our approach achieves an accuracy of 83% which shows the effectiveness of our proposed framework.
The cryptocurrency is attracting more and more attention because of the blockchain technology. Ethereum is gaining a significant popularity in blockchain community, mainly due to the fact that it is designed in a way that enables developers to write smart contracts and decentralized applications (Dapps). There are many kinds of cryptocurrency information on the social network. The risks and fraud problems behind it have pushed many countries including the United States, South Korea, and China to make warnings and set up corresponding regulations. However, the security of Ethereum smart contracts has not gained much attention. Through the Deep Learning approach, we propose a method of sentiment analysis for Ethereum's community comments. In this research, we first collected the users' cryptocurrency comments from the social network and then fed to our LSTM + CNN model for training. Then we made prediction through sentiment analysis. With our research result, we have demonstrated that both the precision and the recall of sentiment analysis can achieve 0.80+. More importantly, we deploy our sentiment analysis1 on RatingToken and Coin Master (mobile application of Cheetah Mobile Blockchain Security Center23). We can effectively provide detail information to resolve the risks of being fake and fraud problems.
Token Curated Registries (TCR) are decentralized recommendation systems that can be implemented using Blockchain smart contracts. They allow participants to vote for or against adding items to a list through a process that involves staking tokens intrinsic to the registry, with winners receiving the staked tokens for each vote. A TCR aims to provide incentives to create a well-curated list. In this work, we consider a challenge for these systems - incentivizing token-holders to actually engage and participate in the voting process. We propose a novel token-inflation mechanism for enhancing engagement, whereby only voting participants see their token supply increased by a pre-defined multiple after each round of voting. To evaluate this proposal, we propose a simple 4-class model of voters that captures all possible combinations of two key dimensions: whether they are engaged (likely to vote at all for a given item) or disengaged, and whether they are informed (likely to vote in a way that increases the quality of the list) or uninformed, and a simple metric to evaluate the quality of the list as a function of the vote outcomes. We conduct simulations using this model of voters and show that implementing token-inflation results in greater wealth accumulation for engaged voters. In particular, when the number of informed voters is sufficiently high, our simulations show that voters that are both informed and engaged see the greatest benefits from participating in the registry when our proposed token-inflation mechanism is employed. We further validate this finding using a simplified mathematical analysis.
Understanding the principles of consensus in communities and finding ways to optimal solutions beneficial for entire community becomes crucial as the speeds and scales of interaction in modern distributed systems increase. Such systems can be both social and information computer networks that unite the masses of people as well as multi-agent computing platforms based on peer-to-peer interactions including those operating on the basis of distributed ledgers. It is now becoming possible for hybrid ecosystems to emerge, having such systems including both humans and computer systems using artificial intelligence. We propose a new form of consensus for all of the listed systems, based on the reputation of the participants, calculated according to the principle of "liquid democracy". We believe that such a system will be more resistant to social engineering and reputation manipulation than the existing systems. In this article, we discuss the basic principles and options for implementing such a system, and also present preliminary practical results.
Morit Zwang, Shahar Somin, Alex Pentland, Yaniv Altshuler
The Ethereum blockchain network is a decentralized platform enabling smart contract execution and transactions of Ether (ETH) [1], its designated cryptocurrency. Ethereum is the second most popular cryptocurrency with a market cap of more than 100 billion USD, with hundreds of thousands of transactions executed daily by hundreds of thousands of unique wallets. Tens of thousands of those wallets are newly generated each day. The Ethereum platform enables anyone to freely open multiple new wallets [2] free of charge (resulting in a large number of wallets that are controlled by the same entities). This attribute makes the Ethereum network a breeding space for activity by software robots (bots). The existence of bots is widespread in different digital technologies and there are various approaches to detect their activity such as rule-base, clustering, machine learning and more [3,4]. In this work we demonstrate how bot detection can be implemented using a network theory approach.
The Bitcoin protocol prevents the occurrence of double-spending (DS), i.e. the utilization of the same currency unit more than once. At the same time a DS attack, where more conflicting transactions are generated, might be performed to defraud a user, e.g. a merchant. Therefore, in this work, we propose a model for detecting the presence of conflicting transactions by means of an 'oracle' that polls a subset of nodes of the Bitcoin network. We assume that the latter has a complex structure. So, we investigate the relation between the topology of several complex networks and the optimal amount, and distribution, of a subset of nodes chosen by the oracle for polling. Results show that small-world networks require to poll a smaller amount of nodes than regular networks. In addition, in random topologies, a small number of polled nodes can make a detection system fast and reliable even if the underlying network grows.
Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Dijana Tolić, Matija Piškorec, Ce Zhang · 5 authors
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume.
Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of factors which could indicate future price movements. This paper aims to decipher relationships between cryptocurrency price changes and topic discussion on social media to provide, among other things, an understanding of which topics are indicative of future price movements. To achieve this a well-known dynamic topic modelling approach is applied to social media communication to retrieve information about the temporal occurrence of various topics. A Hawkes model is then applied to find interactions between topics and cryptocurrency prices. The results show particular topics tend to precede certain types of price movements, for example the discussion of 'risk and investment vs trading' being indicative of price falls, the discussion of 'substantial price movements' being indicative of volatility, and the discussion of 'fundamental cryptocurrency value' by technical communities being indicative of price rises. The knowledge of topic relationships gained here could be built into a real-time system, providing trading or alerting signals.
Blockchain technology, which has been known by mostly small technological circles up until recently, is bursting throughout the globe, with a potential economic and social impact that could fundamentally alter traditional financial and social structures. Issuing cryptocurrencies on top of the Blockchain system by startups and private sector companies is becoming a ubiquitous phenomenon, inducing the trading of these crypto-coins among their holders using dedicated exchanges. Apart from being a trading ledger for tokens, Blockchain can also be observed as a social network. Analyzing and modeling the dynamics of the "social signals" of this network can contribute to our understanding of this ecosystem and the forces acting within in. This work is the first analysis of the network properties of the ERC20 protocol compliant crypto-coins' trading data. Considering all trading wallets as a network's nodes, and constructing its edges using buy--sell trades, we can analyze the network properties of the ERC20 network. Examining several periods of time, and several data aggregation variants, we demonstrate that the network displays strong power-law properties. These results coincide with current network theory expectations, however nonetheless, are the first scientific validation of it, for the ERC20 trading data. The data we examined is composed of over 30 million ERC20 tokens trades, performed by over 6.8 million unique wallets, lapsing over a two years period between February 2016 and February 2018.
Alexandre Bovet, Carlo Campajola, Jorge F. Lazo, Francesco Mottes · 10 authors
The functioning of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin relies on the open availability of the entire history of its transactions. This makes it a particularly interesting socio-economic system to analyse from the point of view of network science. Here we analyse the evolution of the network of Bitcoin transactions between users. We achieve this by using the complete transaction history from December 5th 2011 to December 23rd 2013. This period includes three bubbles experienced by the Bitcoin price. In particular, we focus on the global and local structural properties of the user network and their variation in relation to the different period of price surge and decline. By analysing the temporal variation of the heterogeneity of the connectivity patterns we gain insights on the different mechanisms that take place during bubbles, and find that hubs (i.e., the most connected nodes) had a fundamental role in triggering the burst of the second bubble. Finally, we examine the local topological structures of interactions between users, we discover that the relative frequency of triadic interactions experiences a strong change before, during and after a bubble, and suggest that the importance of the hubs grows during the bubble. These results provide further evidence that the behaviour of the hubs during bubbles significantly increases the systemic risk of the Bitcoin network, and discuss the implications on public policy interventions.
This work is organized as follows. In the first section we review the prior work and we have obtained our data. Next, we will look at address reuse in the Bitcoin network. We show that a great portion of users reuse their addresses which could enable us to cluster the addresses and attribute them to single users. Next, we will categorize the nodes based on their role in the network as a customer or seller. Finally, we do a study of nodes and network performance.
Bitcoins and Blockchain technologies are attracting the attention of different scientific communities. In addition, their widespread industrial applications and the continuous introduction of cryptocurrencies are also stimulating the attention of the public opinion. The underlying structure of these technologies constitutes one of their core concepts. In particular, they are based on peer-to-peer networks. Accordingly, all nodes lie at the same level, so that there is no place for privileged actors as, for instance, banking institutions in classical financial networks. In this work, we perform a preliminary investigation on two kinds of network, i.e. the Bitcoin network and the Bitcoin Cash network. Notably, we analyze their global structure and we try to evaluate if they are provided with a small-world behavior. Results suggest that the principle known as 'fittest-gets-richer', combined with a continuous increasing of connections, might constitute the mechanism leading these networks to reach their current structure. Moreover, further observations open the way to new investigations into this direction.
We design and implement the first private and anonymous decentralized crowdsourcing system ZebraLancer, and overcome two fundamental challenges of decentralizing crowdsourcing, i.e., data leakage and identity breach. First, our outsource-then-prove methodology resolves the tension between the blockchain transparency and the data confidentiality to guarantee the basic utilities/fairness requirements of data crowdsourcing, thus ensuring: (i) a requester will not pay more than what data deserve, according to a policy announced when her task is published via the blockchain; (ii) each worker indeed gets a payment based on the policy, if he submits data to the blockchain; (iii) the above properties are realized not only without a central arbiter, but also without leaking the data to the open blockchain. Second, the transparency of blockchain allows one to infer private information about workers and requesters through their participation history. Simply enabling anonymity is seemingly attempting but will allow malicious workers to submit multiple times to reap rewards. ZebraLancer also overcomes this problem by allowing anonymous requests/submissions without sacrificing accountability. The idea behind is a subtle linkability: if a worker submits twice to a task, anyone can link the submissions, or else he stays anonymous and unlinkable across tasks. To realize this delicate linkability, we put forward a novel cryptographic concept, i.e., the common-prefix-linkable anonymous authentication. We remark the new anonymous authentication scheme might be of independent interest. Finally, we implement our protocol for a common image annotation task and deploy it in a test net of Ethereum. The experiment results show the applicability of our protocol atop the existing real-world blockchain.
Jan 17, 2018·Peter Krafft, Nicolás Della Penna, Alex Pentland. (2018). An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics. ACM CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI)
P. M. Krafft, Nicolás Della Penna, Alex Sandy Pentland
As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions.
Large-scale rumor spreading could pose severe social and economic damages. The emergence of online social networks along with the new media can even make rumor spreading more severe. Effective control of rumor spreading is of theoretical and practical significance. This paper takes the first step to understand how the blockchain technology can help limit the spread of rumors. Specifically, we develop a new paradigm for social networks embedded with the blockchain technology, which employs decentralized contracts to motivate trust networks as well as secure information exchange contract. We design a blockchain-based sequential algorithm which utilizes virtual information credits for each peer-to-peer information exchange. We validate the effectiveness of the blockchain-enabled social network on limiting the rumor spreading. Simulation results validate our algorithm design in avoiding rapid and intense rumor spreading, and motivate better mechanism design for trusted social networks.
Ilaria Bertazzi, Sylvie Huet, Guillaume Deffuant, Floriana Gargiulo
Bitcoin-otc is a peer to peer (over-the-counter) marketplace for trading with bit- coin crypto-currency. To mitigate the risks of the p2p unsupervised exchanges, the establishment of a reliable reputation systems is needed: for this reason, a web of trust is implemented on the website. The availability of all the historic of the users interaction data makes this dataset a unique playground for studying reputation dynamics through others evaluations. We analyze the structure and the dynamics of this web of trust with a multilayer network approach distin- guishing the rewarding and the punitive behaviors. We show that the rewarding and the punitive behavior have similar emergent topological properties (apart from the clustering coefficient being higher for the rewarding layer) and that the resultant reputation originates from the complex interaction of the more regular behaviors on the layers. We show which are the behaviors that correlate (i.e. the rewarding activity) or not (i.e. the punitive activity) with reputation. We show that the network activity presents bursty behaviors on both the layers and that the inequality reaches a steady value (higher for the rewarding layer) with the network evolution. Finally, we characterize the reputation trajectories and we identify prototypical behaviors associated to three classes of users: trustworthy, untrusted and controversial.
Leonardo Ermann, Klaus M. Frahm, Dima L. Shepelyansky
We construct and study the Google matrix of Bitcoin transactions during the time period from the very beginning in 2009 till April 2013. The Bitcoin network has up to a few millions of bitcoin users and we present its main characteristics including the PageRank and CheiRank probability distributions, the spectrum of eigenvalues of Google matrix and related eigenvectors. We find that the spectrum has an unusual circle-type structure which we attribute to existing hidden communities of nodes linked between their members. We show that the Gini coefficient of the transactions for the whole period is close to unity showing that the main part of wealth of the network is captured by a small fraction of users.
The wisdom of the crowd is a valuable asset in today’s society. It is not only important in predicting elections but also plays an essential role in marketing and the financial industry. Having a trustworthy source of opinion can make forecasts more accurate and markets predictable. Until now, a fundamental problem of surveys is the lack of incentives for participants to provide accurate information. Classical solutions like small monetary rewards or the chance of winning a prize are often not very attractive for participants. More attractive solutions, such as prediction markets, face the issue of illegality and are often unavailable. In this work, we present a solution that unites the advantages from classical polling and prediction markets via a customizable incentivization framework. Apart from predicting events, this framework can also be used to govern decentralized autonomous organizations.