The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
Maryam Tavakkoli, Aliya Karim, Fabienne B. Fischer, Laura Monzón Llamas · 11 authors
Objectives: With the application of a systems thinking lens, we aimed to assess the national COVID-19 response across health systems components in Switzerland, Spain, Iran, and Pakistan. Methods: We conducted four case studies on the policy response of national health systems to the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Selected countries include different health system typologies. We collected data prospectively for the period of January–July 2020 on 17 measures of the COVID-19 response recommended by the WHO that encompassed all health systems domains (governance, financing, health workforce, information, medicine and technology and service delivery). We further monitored contextual factors influencing their adoption or deployment. Results: The policies enacted coincided with a decrease in the COVID-19 transmission. However, there was inadequate communication and a perception that the measures were adverse to the economy, weakening political support for their continuation and leading to a rapid resurgence in transmission. Conclusion: Social pressure, religious beliefs, governance structure and level of administrative decentralization or global economic sanctions played a major role in how countries’ health systems could respond to the pandemic.
This study examines whether Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies (Onegram and X8X) provide any diversification benefits to the Islamic investors of Indonesia. We study the co-movements between return and volatility of cryptocurrencies and Indonesian Islamic equity indices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. We employ Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (M-GARCH-DCC) and Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT) for this study. We find that the COVID-19 crisis enhanced the spillover effect among the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and Islamic equities. We also provide evidence that Indonesian investors may invest in cryptocurrencies to minimize the equity sector risks during the pandemic. Our results bear significant implications for portfolio diversification strategies for Indonesian investors.
This study explores the causal relationship between COVID-19 pandemic and Bitcoin returns by applying the time and frequency domain Granger causality framework. We find that COVID-19 has a causal effect on Bitcoin returns across time. We further find that the causal effect of COVID-19 on Bitcoin returns, varies across different frequencies from short to medium and long term. From a policy perspective, investors need to be alert while investing in Bitcoin.
Bu çalışma, algı yönetiminin Bitcoin fiyatlarına etkisini göstermek amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Algı yönetimi, çeşitli stratejiler uygulanarak hedeflenen düşüncelerin kitlelere kabul ettirilmesi şeklinde ifade edilmektedir. Küreselleşme ve dijitalleşmenin etkisiyle algı yönetiminin siyasetçiler, gazeteciler ve bireyler tarafından sıklıkla kullanıldığı gözlemlenmektedir. Algı yönetiminin günümüzde dijital medya olanaklarıyla gerçekleştirildiği ve düşüncelerin çeşitli platformlar aracılığı ile ifade edildiği görülmektedir. Kimi mecralarda manipülasyona neden olan algı yönetimi, genellikle kitleler tarafından izlenen kişilerce gerçekleştirilmektedir. Çalışmada, Elon Musk tarafından Twitter platformu üzerinden gerçekleştirilen paylaşımların, Bitcoin fiyatlarına etkisi gösterilmiştir. Çalışmada Musk tarafından gerçekleştirilen üç paylaşım ile o tarihlerde Bitcoin fiyat hareketliliği incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Musk tarafından gerçekleştirilen paylaşımlar ile Bitcoin fiyatları üzerinde gerçekleştirilen olumlu ve olumsuz algı yönetiminin doğrusal olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Özellikle belirtmek gerekir ki Bitcoin fiyatının düşüş ya da yükseliş hareketinde tek etkili olan faktör Musk’ın paylaşımları olmamakla beraber, bu paylaşımlar fiyatlara büyük oranda etki etmiştir. Daha sonra gerçekleştirilen çalışmalarda farklı kişilerce gerçekleştirilen algı yönetimi örneklerinin analiz edilmesi önerilmektedir.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the hedging capacity of Bitcoin in relation to the S&P 500 index during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach In order to investigate the hedging features of Bitcoin in relation to the S&P 500 index during the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors use the Granger causality applied on a daily sample of observations ranging from January 1st, 2019 to December 31st, 2020. As robustness checks, the authors use autoregressive models to test the validity of the findings. Findings Using time series of daily data from 1st January 2019 to 31st December 2020, the results show that Bitcoin is not considered as a safe haven because it moves at the same pace as the S&P 500. As a robustness check, the authors use the exponential GARCH model and confirm our previous findings. Overall, the study contributes to the debate on both COVID-19's impact on financial systems and the hypothesis of Bitcoin being a safe haven during extreme global crises. Originality/value The study contributes to the debate on both COVID-19's impact on financial systems and the hypothesis of Bitcoin being a safe haven during extreme global crises.
We examine whether the occurrence of jumps in the return of major cryptocurrencies increases the likelihood of jumps in the stock returns of blockchain and crypto-exposed US companies. We use two criteria to identify the US stocks with blockchain and cryptocurrency exposure; i) text search and ii) membership in the blockchain indices. We first detect that both asset classes are subject to jump behaviour. Then, we employ logistic regressions and show that the occurrence of jumps in some cryptocurrencies increases the probability of jumps in several blockchain and crypto-exposed companies. The co-jumping behaviour is not affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.
Srinidhi Rai, Shamantha Rai B, Permanki Guthu Rithesh Pakkala, Prakhyath Rai
Abstract A blockchain is a continuously expanding list of documents known as blocks that are connected together via cryptography. A smart contract is a computer program that executes itself in accordance with the terms of a contract. In Traditional vaccine delivery systems, vaccine delivery information is not visible to all the supply chain entities, thereby prone to data tampering. Thus, transparency is the biggest concern in this system. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid launch of a vaccine and the implementation of a worldwide vaccination campaign is crucial, but their success depends on the availability of an operable and transparent distribution chain that all necessary stakeholders can assess. In the proposed work, we show how blockchain technology may be used to enable transparent tracing of COVID-19 vaccination registration, storage, and distribution and self-reporting of side effects by constructing a prototype using smart contracts.
Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic is known to have affected the logistics and supply chains; however, there is no adequate empirical evidence to prove in which way it has affected the relationship between the stocks related to this field with the corresponding cryptocurrencies. This paper aims to test the dynamic relationship of cryptocurrencies with supply chain and logistics stocks. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author tests the causal and long-run relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with the corresponding cryptocurrencies related to these fields, or those that are known to exhibit characteristics that can be utilized by these fields, testing also whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected this relationship. To do so, the author performs the variable-lag causality to test the causal relationship, and examines if this relationship changed due to COVID-19. The author then implements the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the characteristics of a possible long-run relationship, testing also whether they changed due to COVID-19. Findings The results indicate that there is a positive long-run relationship between each logistics and supply chain stocks and the corresponding cryptocurrencies, before and also during COVID-19, but during COVID-19 this relationship becomes weaker, in most cases. Moreover, before COVID-19, the majority of the cases indicate a causal direction from cryptocurrencies to the stocks, while during COVID-19, the causal relationships decrease in multitude, and most cases unveil a causal direction from the stocks to cryptocurrencies. Originality/value The causal pattern changed during COVID-19, and the long-run relationship became weaker, showing a change in the dynamics in the relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with cryptocurrencies.
Abstract Introduction: Blockchain is gaining attention in various industries and sectors. It is described as an emergent technology with immense possibilities similar to how the internet has revolutionised how businesses are currently carried out. Still, various sectors have either not adopted or are in a very nascent stage to adopt blockchain technology in their operations. The current research examines how blockchain can be used in the insurance sector. This industry was chosen as it is extremely relevant in today’s world and directly bears its economy. Purpose: To determine the current and future path in which the insurance industry is moving about blockchain technology adoption and find synergy between blockchain technology and the insurance business. Need for study: The insurance industry is highly relevant in today’s world and directly bears the country’s economy. Additionally, blockchain is an emergent technology with immense possibilities similar to how the internet has revolutionised how businesses are done. The current research looks at how blockchain can be used in the insurance business. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted in this study by reviewing literature related to blockchain technology and the insurance sector. Science direct was used as a source of information. For this study, the literature review approach was chosen since it allows us to trace the growth of the subject matter and identify the patterns that have formed through time. Findings: The study found that the insurance sector has recognised the latent benefits of blockchain technology and has begun to develop its usage in selected cases such as fraud prevention and risk assessment. Practical implications: The current study can be referred to by academicians, marketers, industry people, and policymakers. The study encourages companies and academicians to further investigate the usage of blockchain in insurance.
Abstract Purpose: Blockchain is the most significant technological innovation of the generation following the internet. However, most individuals are unaware of how it will affect the insurance business. Design/methodology/approach: The present study utilises a systematic review methodology to assess the existing literature on blockchain technology in the insurance industry. Findings: Currently, few insurance companies are researching and using blockchain technology for automated claims, fraud detection, and cash flow tracking. The use of blockchain technology in the insurance business is still in its early stages, and many significant issues remain unsolved. This chapter lays out the discussions regarding the current state of blockchain technology in the insurance business. Practical implications: Using distributed ledger technology (DLT), all the stakeholders can easily exchange the relevant information on a real-time basis. In particular, blockchain technology will help all insurance companies minimise discrepancies related to fraudulent claims by keeping track of the customer’s history of the customer reducing administrative costs. Originality/value: It has been observed that very few studies have been conducted in this field. This is a holistic study that focuses on the applications of blockchain technology in various non-life insurance segments.
Abstract In the recent coronavirus pandemic, several researchers have focused on the drivers of cryptocurrency behavior. In particular, this study provides insights into what can drive Islamic cryptocurrency markets and how do they react during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We explore the cryptocurrency volatility and the connectedness between the Islamic, conventional, and COVID‐19 confirmed cases and deaths using the wavelet approaches. The preliminary results show that faith‐based cryptocurrencies have reduced risk exposure than their conventional counterparts, in the long run, making them more appealing for investment, particularly for investors seeking low‐risk and Shariah‐compliant assets. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that both Islamic and conventional cryptocurrencies are more sensitive to the death toll than the newly confirmed cases. We also observe significant positive co‐movements between Bitcoin and Islamic cryptocurrencies. Besides, Bitcoin exhibits a substantial response during various time scales while compared with Islamic cryptocurrencies. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the sensitivity and the vulnerability of a new category of cryptocurrencies backed by tangible assets to pandemic shocks. To the extent of the author's knowledge, this study is the first attempt that examines the co‐movement between Islamic and conventional cryptocurrencies using the wavelet approach. A viable, ethical, and alternative investment route for faith‐based investors can be provided by the Shariah‐Compliant cryptocurrencies as they are risk‐reduced and less sensitive to the pandemic than conventional benchmarks. Besides, this study creates opportunities in portfolio diversification for investors.
This study examines the responses of Bitcoin and gold to categorical financial stress and compares the responses before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The OLS and Quantile regression estimations revealed that gold and Bitcoin exhibit similar reactions in full and pre COVID-19 samples. Gold and Bitcoin respond positively to equity valuation and safe assets categories of financial stress. Gold also reacts positively to the credit category of financial stress suggesting that widening credit spreads are bullish for gold. Bitcoin and gold respond differently in the funding category, and there is no significant reaction to volatility-related financial stress. Overall, the effects of categorical financial stress on gold and Bitcoin are similar in the full sample and sub-sample before COVID-19, but the effects are heterogeneous. Interestingly, during the pandemic, the reactions of gold and Bitcoin to categorical financial stress have changed. Gold only reacts positively to the credit category of financial stress across quantiles. Bitcoin reacts positively to credit and safe asset categories but not across all quantiles. The findings offer insights into the effects of several systemic financial stress on the value of safe haven assets.
The current study looked into the relationship between self-esteem and the use of cryptocurrencies and overconfidence bias. Three hundred thirty-seven investors from the northern portion of India total took part in the survey. AMOS 20.0 was used to create and test the conceptual framework. A questionnaire was used to extract data about the participants' investments in order to determine the level of their overconfidence bias and bitcoin participation. The outcomes confirmed the hypothesis. The results of the mediation study showed that there is direct and indirect influence of self-esteem on cryptocurrency investment behavior showing partial mediation effect.
The coronavirus pandemic occurred in 2019 and caused an impact on cryptocurrencies. This paper focuses on the relation between the return of cryptocurrencies and the new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, taking Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether as three examples. It is shown that the new daily cases have a significant influence on Bitcoin and Ethereum. And the short-term impact of new global confirmed cases on Bitcoin is positive, then remains volatile and eventually disappears. The different phenomena show that different cryptocurrencies have reacted differently to the pandemic impact.
Ruzita Abdul‐Rahim, Airil Khalid, Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Mamunur Rashid
This paper estimates the comovement between two leading cryptocurrencies and the G7 stock markets. It then attempts to explain the comovement with the rational investment theory by examining whether it is driven by market uncertainty measures, public attention to COVID-19, and the government’s containment and health responses to COVID-19. Wavelet Coherence heatmaps show that the stock-cryptocurrency comovements increase significantly and positively during the pandemic, indicating that cryptocurrencies lose their safe haven properties against stocks during the heightened market uncertainties. Over the longer investment horizons, Bitcoin reemerges as a safe haven or strong hedger while Ethereum’s properties weaken. Seemingly Unrelated Regression results reveal that the stock-cryptocurrency comovements are rationally explained by market uncertainties, government responses to COVID-19, and market fundamentals. However, the comovements are also driven by the fear of COVID-19 to a certain extent. Our findings offer valuable insights for investors considering cryptocurrencies to rebalance their equity portfolios during market distress. For policymakers, the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) results suggest that government policies and regulatory frameworks can be used to regulate speculation and investment activities in the cryptocurrency market.
It is well known that the introduction of Blockchain in the agri-food sector represents a digital innovation aimed at increasing business income through the reduction of production inputs (and therefore of production costs expressed at constant prices) and/or the increase of output (increase in the quantity produced and therefore in revenues expressed at constant prices). According to Schumpeter, innovation and entrepreneurship mainly depend on innovative people, their skills and knowledge. In fact, digital innovation is always aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the company and can concern an improvement in technical and economic efficiency. On an existing company structure, efficiency concerns an optimization of the variable production factors to be used in the production process (reduction of variable costs: example quantity of water used; quantity of fertilizers to be used according to seasonal trends; quantity of pesticides to be used) which have repercussions on the structure of the cost of production and therefore positive effects on the net income of the entrepreneur. In the present study after examining the economic theory of innovation, through the theory of value examined why agri-food companies should adopt innovations such as the Blockchain. The study highlights that digital innovations can be implemented by entrepreneurs according to company size and with a view to increasing the value of production and that the affirmation of innovation requires long periods of time.
Purpose Cryptocurrencies lack fundamental values and are often subject to behavioral bias leading to market bubbles. This study aims to investigate the contribution of the coronavirus pandemic to the creation of market bubbles. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies four major cryptocurrency market bubbles by using the Phillips et al. (2016) (hereafter PSY) test. Subsequently, the co-movements of the coronavirus proxies with PSY measurement using the wavelet approach were studied. Findings Short-lived bubbles are detected at the beginning of the studied period, and more extended bubble periods are identified at the end. Besides, the empirical results show evidence of significant negative co-movement between each pandemic proxy and each cryptocurrency bubble measurement. Research limitations/implications Given the complex financial dynamics of the cryptocurrency markets due to some behavioral biases in some circumstances, investors can benefit from the date stamping of the bubbles bursting to make the best trading positions. In the same way, governments could support the healthy development of cryptocurrencies by preventing bubbles during such pandemics. Originality/value The financial bubble is commonly attributed to a change in investor behavior. Because traders and investors think they can resell the asset at a higher price in the future. This study explored the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the creation of these bubbles by date stamping their occurrence and explosive periods. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt that explores the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the creation of bubbles caused by a change in the investors’ behavior.