This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates sentiment analysis with deep learning to predict Bitcoin’s hourly and daily closing prices. Hourly BTC/USD market data spanning June 2021 to November 2025 were combined with approximately 326,000 Bitcoin-related news headlines published over the same period. Sentiment scores in the range of [-1, +1] were generated for each headline using FinBERT, a transformer-based language model trained on financial texts, and were subsequently integrated with technical indicators such as trading volume, MACD, and RSI. The resulting combined feature set was modeled using an LSTM network to capture temporal dependencies. Empirical results demonstrate that sentiment-enhanced hybrid models consistently outperform models based solely on technical indicators across RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² metrics. The hourly hybrid model achieved the best performance, with an RMSE of 1,009 USD and an R² of 99.23%. Furthermore, a 30-day out-of-sample real-time evaluation yielded an RMSE of 941 USD. The consistency between in-sample and out-of-sample results indicates that the proposed framework maintains stable predictive performance over time.
Alexandra Conda, Ștefan Găman, Raul Cristian Bag, Miruna Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele · 6 authors
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between Facebook sentiment and Bitcoin market dynamics using AI-based emotion detection. We analyze 120,000 Facebook posts collected via CrowdTangle alongside Bitcoin financial data from the Blockchain Research Center, covering 2015–2023. Employing FinBERT for sentiment classification, we develop novel compound sentiment scores that integrate text-based sentiment with Facebook’s multi-reaction engagement system, then apply four analytical components: sentiment analysis, Dynamic Topic Modeling, sentiment-based trading strategies, and machine learning volume prediction. Results demonstrate that Facebook sentiment has substantial predictive power for Bitcoin trading volume. Sentiment-based trading strategies significantly outperform buy-and-hold, achieving superior cumulative returns and risk-adjusted performance. For volume prediction, Linear Regression and Bidirectional LSTM achieve comparable test performance, indicating that model complexity does not guarantee superior prediction. Topic modeling reveals that cryptocurrency investment and trading discussions dominate Bitcoin discourse on Facebook, with themes evolving over time in response to market conditions. This research contributes by being the first to apply post-level NLP sentiment analysis of Facebook data to cryptocurrency markets, extending beyond the Twitter and Reddit focus of prior research. The findings provide practical tools for traders and analysts navigating volatile digital asset markets while demonstrating that Facebook’s demographically diverse user base and rich reaction system offer unique advantages for sentiment quantification.
Social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) increasingly shape attention formation, market visibility, and value signaling in electronic commerce, particularly in emerging digital asset markets such as Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Prior work shows that social engagement correlates with NFT prices, suggesting its potential for valuation support. However, open social platforms exhibit heterogeneous user credibility, automated activity, and coordinated promotion, which can distort engagement-based inference. To address these challenges, we propose NFT-TRUST, a trust-aware social signal modeling framework that transforms raw engagement into credibility- and integrity-aware indicators for robust valuation support under manipulation-prone conditions. The framework integrates three components: (i) Credibility-Weighted Social Signal Aggregation (CW-SSA), (ii) Engagement Disproportionality Detection (EDD), and (iii) Integrity-Aware Signal Attenuation (IASA), which jointly reduce the influence of unreliable or manipulated signals while preserving informative engagement. Rather than estimating intrinsic NFT value from social signals alone, NFT-TRUST evaluates the reliability of social attention and converts it into trust-aware features. An XGBoost-based model is used to capture non-linear interactions among these features. Robustness is assessed through stress testing with RL-TweetGen-ST, a reinforcement learning–based synthetic tweet generator that simulates controlled engagement inflation. Experimental results show that NFT-TRUST achieves competitive predictive performance while demonstrating improved stability under simulated manipulation. Ablation analysis indicates that credibility and integrity components are complementary and jointly enhance the reliability of social-signal-based inference. Overall, this work advances trust-aware analytics in electronic commerce and supports more reliable social-driven valuation in emerging digital markets.
Dec 1, 2025·International journal of intelligent computing and information sciences/International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Information Sciences
sarah Osama anis, Mohammed Mabrouk Morsey, Mostafa Aref
In the rapidly evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, gaining a deep understanding of public sentiment has become increasingly essential, especially given the significant impact of social media platforms on market perceptions and trends. This paper introduces a sophisticated sentiment classification model that utilizes a Bi-LSTM architecture to analyse over one million tweets related to Bitcoin. By integrating Explainable AI techniques, particularly LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) framework, our model not only achieves an impressive test accuracy of 98% but also offers valuable insights into its decision-making process, making the results more interpretable for users Our findings highlight robust performance metrics across precision, recall, and F1-scores, which collectively underscore the model's reliability and effectiveness in real-world applications. Furthermore, we delve into the opaque nature of the Bi-LSTM model through the application of LIME, which sheds light on how particular words and phrases have a strong impact on sentiment predictions. This research equips future investigations with conceptual frameworks and analytical tools that can be customized to study a broader range of cryptocurrencies. Through this work, we aim to foster a more nuanced comprehension of how public sentiment shapes market behaviour and decision-making in the digital currency space.
Owen Dugan, Garcia, Roberto, Ronny Junkins, Jerry Liu · 8 authors
The success of large language models (LLMs) can be attributed in part to their ability to efficiently store factual knowledge as key-value mappings within their MLP parameters. Recent work has proposed explicit weight constructions to build such fact-storing MLPs, providing an improved understanding of LLM fact storage mechanisms. In this paper, we introduce an MLP construction framework that improves over previous constructions in three areas: it 1) works for all but a measure-zero set of feasible input-output pairs, 2) achieves asymptotically optimal parameter efficiency matching information-theoretic bounds for some embeddings, and 3) maintains usability within Transformers for factual recall. Through our improvements, we 1) discover a metric on value embeddings that characterizes facts-per-parameter scaling for both constructed and gradient-descent-trained MLPs, 2) identify a simple encoder-decoder mechanism that empirically matches gradient-descent MLP facts-per-parameter asymptotics across all the inputs and outputs we test, and 3) uncover a fundamental tradeoff between an MLP's fact-storage capacity and its usability within Transformers. Finally, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of fact-storing MLPs: modular fact editing on one-layer Transformers by \textit{replacing entire MLPs at once}.
Tulika Shrivastava, Basem Suleiman, Sachit A. J. Desa, Muhammad Johan Alibasa · 6 authors
Abstract The volatility of cryptocurrencies necessitates reliable short-term price prediction models for informed investment decisions. This work presents two benchmarking studies that predict cryptocurrency price over hourly and daily time horizons using market indicators and social media data. Study 1 used BERT-based sentiment analysis of hourly Twitter data combined with financial indicators, while Study 2 applied VADER sentiment analysis to daily Twitter and Google Trends data alongside financial indicators. Both studies systematically evaluated statistical models (ARIMA, ARIMAX), machine learning approaches (SVR), and deep learning architectures (1D-CNN, LSTM) including ensemble, multi-modal, and hybrid configurations. Particular attention was given to the influence of lag periods, data aggregation, and sentiment analysis nuances on cryptocurrency price. Empirical results identify LSTM as the best-performing singular prediction model, achieving a 64.5% reduction in RMSE (4.56e $$-$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>-</mml:mo> </mml:math> 03) compared with the SVR baseline in Study 1. In Study 2, the hybrid LSTM + ARIMA model delivered the strongest performance, reducing RMSE by 32.5% (RMSE=2.55e+02) relative to the best performing singular baseline. Hybrid architectures combining LSTM with ARIMA or ARIMAX consistently achieved the lowest RMSE values, outperforming all other configurations and proving especially effective at capturing price movements and turning points. These findings demonstrate how combining statistical methods with deep learning can address non-stationarity, improve sentiment preprocessing, and enhance model interpretability.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of digital marketing and electronic commerce, short-form content—particularly on platforms like Twitter (now X)—has become pivotal for real-time branding, community engagement, and product promotion. The rise of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and Web3 ecosystems further underscores the need for domain-specific, engagement-oriented social media content. However, automating the generation of such content while balancing linguistic quality, semantic relevance, and audience engagement remains a substantial challenge. To address this, we propose RL-TweetGen, a socio-technical framework that integrates instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) to generate concise, impactful, and engagement-optimized tweets. The framework incorporates a structured pipeline comprising domain-specific data curation, semantic classification, and intent-aware prompt engineering, and leverages Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) with LoRA for scalable model adaptation. We fine-tuned and evaluated three LLMs—LLaMA-3.1-8B, Mistral-7B Instruct, and DeepSeek 7B Chat—guided by a hybrid reward function that blends XGBoost-predicted engagement scores with expert-in-the-loop feedback. To enhance lexical diversity and contextual alignment, we implemented advanced decoding strategies, including Tailored Beam Search, Enhanced Top-p Sampling, and Contextual Temperature Scaling. A case study focused on NFT-related tweet generation demonstrated the practical effectiveness of RL-TweetGen. Experimental results showed that Mistral-7B achieved the highest lexical fluency (BLEU: 0.2285), LLaMA-3.1 exhibited superior semantic precision (BERT-F1: 0.8155), while DeepSeek 7B provided balanced performance. Overall, RL-TweetGen presents a scalable and adaptive solution for marketers, content strategists, and Web3 platforms seeking to automate and optimize social media engagement. The framework advances the role of generative AI in digital commerce by aligning content generation with platform dynamics, user preferences, and marketing goals.
As Bitcoin continues to establish itself as a global asset and discussions around relevant regulations become more active, there is an increasing demand for a comprehensive price prediction framework. To address this necessity, this study aims to enhance the accuracy of Bitcoin price predictions by integrating sentiment information with technical indicators, on-chain data, and cryptocurrency price data. Recognizing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to market sentiment, the proposed framework incorporates sentiment features derived from both lexicon-based methods and large language models. As unsupervised sentiment tools can introduce label noise particularly in domain-specific or ambiguous financial contexts, this study combines the outputs of multiple sentiment models at the feature level to construct a more stable representation. This design improves the robustness of downstream regression performance and distinguishes the framework from previous hybrid models that relied on a single sentiment source without component-wise evaluation. Experimental results using a dataset spanning 2700 days showed that the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with a 3-day window achieves the best performance with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.93% and R-squared value of 0.99106. Feature importance analysis further demonstrates sentiment index as the most impactful feature, as excluding it resulted in the largest decline in predictive accuracy. Additionally, the model's performance was evaluated under four major volatility periods, revealing MAPE values ranging from 1.49 to 4.03%, highlighting the framework’s practical capability in rapidly adapting to sudden market shifts. In summary, integrating sentiment information attained from multiple language models significantly enhanced prediction accuracy compared to single source approaches. These findings highlight the framework’s practical value for sentiment-informed investment strategies and risk alerts, with a modular design that enables flexible adaptation and potential integration into automated trading systems.
This study explores the intricate relationship between public sentiment and Bitcoin market dynamics, leveraging sentiment analysis of Twitter data to uncover patterns in emotional discourse surrounding cryptocurrency. By analyzing sentiment trends from 2013 to 2019, the research reveals a cyclical interplay between positive and negative sentiment, often aligning with Bitcoin’s dramatic price movements. Positive sentiment peaks coincide with periods of market optimism, driven by narratives of technological innovation and mainstream adoption, while negative sentiment troughs reflect moments of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) during market corrections. Despite the observed alignment, the correlation between sentiment and Bitcoin prices remains weak, underscoring the complexity of market behavior and the influence of external factors such as macroeconomic trends and regulatory developments. The findings highlight the potential of sentiment analysis as a complementary tool for market prediction, offering valuable insights into the emotional undercurrents that shape cryptocurrency markets. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the socio-economic and psychological dimensions of Bitcoin, providing a foundation for future research in sentiment-driven market analysis.
Social media has attracted society for decades due to its reciprocal and real-life nature. It influenced almost all societal entities, including governments, academics, industries, health, and finance. The Social Network generates unstructured information about brands, political issues, cryptocurrencies, and global pandemics. The major challenge is translating this information into reliable consumer opinion as it contains jargon, abbreviations, and reference links with previous content. Several ensemble models have been introduced to mine the enormous noisy range on social platforms. Still, these need more predictability and are the less-generalized models for social sentiment analysis. Hence, an optimized stacked-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based sentiment analysis model is proposed for cryptocurrency price prediction. The model can find the relationships of latent contextual semantic and co-occurrence statistical features between phrases in a sentence. Additionally, the proposed model comprises multiple LSTM layers, and each layer is optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique to learn based on the best hyperparameters. The model's efficiency is measured in terms of confusion matrix, weighted f1-Score, weighted Precision, weighted Recall, training accuracy, and testing accuracy. Moreover, comparative results reveal that an optimized stacked LSTM outperformed. The objective of the proposed model is to introduce a benchmark sentiment analysis model for predicting cryptocurrency prices, which will be helpful for other societal sentiment predictions. A pretty significant thing for this presented model is that it can process multilingual and cross-platform social media data. This could be achieved by combining LSTMs with multilingual embeddings, fine-tuning, and effective preprocessing for providing accurate and robust sentiment analysis across diverse languages, platforms, and communication styles.
Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, is renowned for its extreme volatility and speculative nature, making accurate price prediction a persistent challenge for investors. While recent studies have employed multivariate models to integrate historical price data with social media sentiment analysis, this study focuses on improving an existing univariate approach By incorporating sentiment and tweet volume data into a multivariate framework, we systematically evaluated the benefits of this integration. Among the five LSTM-based models developed for this study, the Multi-LSTM-Sentiment model achieved the best performance, with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.00196 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.00304. These results underscore the significance of including social media sentiment in predictive modelling and demonstrate its potential to enhance decision-making in the highly dynamic cryptocurrency market.
Abstract As blockchain technology advances, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are emerging as unconventional assets in the commercial market. However, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive NFT ecosystem that addresses the prevailing public concerns. This study aimed to bridge this gap by analyzing user-generated content on prominent social media platforms such as Twitter, Weibo, and Reddit. Employing text clustering and topic modeling techniques, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation, we constructed an analytical framework to delve into the intricacies of the NFT ecosystem. Our investigation revealed seven distinct topics from Twitter and Reddit data and eight topics from Weibo data. Weibo users predominantly engaged in reviews and critiques, whereas Twitter and Reddit users emphasized personal experiences and perceptions. The NFT ecosystem encompasses several crucial elements, including transactions, customers, infrastructure, products, environments, and perceptions. By identifying the prevailing trends and common issues, this study offers valuable guidance for the development of NFT ecosystems.
Purpose This study aims to analyze public discourse on decentralized finance (DeFi) and central bank digital currencies (CBDC) using advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques to uncover key insights that can guide financial policy and innovation. This research seeks to fill the gap in the existing literature by applying state-of-the-art NLP models like BERT and RoBERTa to understand the evolving online discourse around DeFi and CBDC. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multilabel classification using BERT and RoBERTa models alongside BERTopic for topic modeling. Data is collected from social media platforms, including Twitter and LinkedIn, as well as relevant documents, to analyze public sentiment and discourse. Model performance is evaluated based on accuracy, precision, recall and F1-scores. Findings RoBERTa outperforms BERT in classification accuracy and precision across all metrics, making it more effective in categorizing public discourse on DeFi and CBDC. BERTopic identifies five key topics frequently discussed, such as financial inclusion, competition and growth in DeFi, with important implications for policymakers. Practical implications The insights derived from this study provide valuable information for financial regulators and policymakers to develop more informed, data-driven strategies for implementing and regulating DeFi and CBDC. Public discourse analysis enables policymakers to understand emerging concerns and trends critical for crafting effective financial policies. Originality/value This study is among the first to use advanced NLP models, including RoBERTa and BERTopic, to analyze public discourse on DeFi and CBDC. It offers novel insights into the potential challenges and opportunities these innovations present. It contributes to the growing body of research on the intersection of digital financial technologies and public sentiment.
This study investigates public sentiment about popular cryptocurrencies listed on crypto exchanges in Turkey, using comments shared on social media platforms and online forums. The research seeks to enhance the existing body of knowledge by overcoming the shortcomings of sentiment analysis studies focused on Turkish texts. Data collected from social media and online forums were examined with sentiment analysis techniques. A total of 607,592 comments were analyzed, of which 89,986 were classified as negative, 72,655 as positive, and 444,951 as neutral. For binary classification, 89,986 negative and 72,655 positive examples were selected and machine-learning models were trained and tested on 162,641 examples. The study's methodology includes an in-depth examination of sentiment analysis results obtained using machine learning classifiers. The findings show how various cryptocurrencies are perceived on different social media platforms. For instance, BTC (Bitcoin) is generally perceived negatively on Investing.com and Telegram, while ETH (Ethereum) generally displays more negative views. These results help investors understand their perceptions and market expectations towards cryptocurrencies. This study deepens the role of social media sentiment analysis in cryptocurrency markets, contributing to the development of new methods and approaches for future research.
The price of cryptocurrency can be affected by several factors these years, such as technology, social media, COVID-19, etc. One of the examples of these factors is Elon Mask’s tweets about cryptocurrency, which help to increase cryptocurrency prices. With the spread of the epidemic, people are restricted from meeting in person. Therefore, more and more people are active on online social media sites such as Twitter. This research wants to determine if tweets related to cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, one of the most popular cryptocurrencies nowadays) affect price. By taking 5 machine learning models and the Granger causality test, the correlation and causation relationship between sentiment analysis and bitcoin price can be determined.
Konstantinos I. Roumeliotis, Nikolaos D. Tselikas, Dimitrios Κ. Nasiopoulos
Cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly prominent in financial investments, with more investors diversifying their portfolios and individuals drawn to their ease of use and decentralized financial opportunities. However, this accessibility also brings significant risks and rewards, often influenced by news and the sentiments of crypto investors, known as crypto signals. This paper explores the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) models in analyzing sentiment from cryptocurrency-related news articles. We fine-tune state-of-the-art models such as GPT-4, BERT, and FinBERT for this specific task, evaluating their performance and comparing their effectiveness in sentiment classification. By leveraging these advanced techniques, we aim to enhance the understanding of sentiment dynamics in the cryptocurrency market, providing insights that can inform investment decisions and risk management strategies. The outcomes of this comparative study contribute to the broader discourse on applying advanced NLP models to cryptocurrency sentiment analysis, with implications for both academic research and practical applications in financial markets.
Kia Jahanbin, Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki, Mahdi Yazdian‐Dehkordi, Fatemeh Rahmanian
OBJECTIVES: Due to the limitations of Twitter, the expansion of Telegram channels, and the Telegram API's easy use, Telegram comments have become prevalent. Telegram is one of the most popular social networks, unlike Twitter, which has no restrictions on sending messages, and experts can share their opinions and media. Some of these channels, managed by influencers of large companies, are very influential in the behavior of the market on various stocks, including cryptocurrencies. In this research, the opinion collection of 10 famous Telegram channels regarding the analysis of cryptocurrencies has been extracted. The sentiments of these opinions have been analyzed using the HDRB model. HDRB is a hybrid model of RoBERTa deep neural network, BiGRU, and attention layer used for sentiment analysis (SA). Analyzing the sentiments of these opinions is very important for understanding the future behavior of the market and managing the stock portfolio. The opinions of this dataset, published by experts in the field of cryptocurrencies, are precious, unlike the opinions that are extracted only by using the hashtag of the names of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, the dataset related to cryptocurrencies, which has the opinions of experts and the polarity of their feelings, is very rare. DATA DESCRIPTION: The dataset of this research is the sentiments of more than ten popular Telegram channels regarding a wide range of cryptocurrencies. These comments were collected through the Telegram API from December 2023 to March 2024. This data set contains an Excel file containing the text of the comments, the date of comment creation, the number of views, the compound score, the sentiment score, and the type of sentiment polarity. These opinions cover influencer analysis on a wide range of cryptocurrencies. Also, two Word files, one containing the description of the dataset columns and the other Python code for extracting comments from Telegram channels, are included in this dataset.
In recent years, new payment methods have emerged, aimed at improving convenience for users. Cryptocurrencies, in principle, are no different. In this study, we seek to analyze the general population's attitudes towards the adoption of cryptocurrencies as a payment method. To achieve this, we have developed a descriptive survey that targets both current cryptocurrency users and non-users, recognizing that differences in perception may exist. Additionally, we have conducted a sentiment analysis of open-ended questions to understand respondents' views on the future of the cryptocurrency market and its potential as a payment tool, utilizing different lexicons in the English language. Our findings indicate that most cryptocurrency users prefer to invest in these digital assets, often choosing coins based on their popularity rather than other intrinsic features. E-commerce payments are the most attractive activity, followed by international transactions when using cryptocurrencies as a payment method. However, high volatility and a lack of ease of use are the most common difficulties reported by users. Our study also highlights the importance of regulation in a time when users are increasingly demanding higher levels of oversight, in contrast to the past. While users are concerned about the instability and volatility of cryptocurrencies, they also value the anonymity these transactions offer. Our analysis showcases an innovative approach to analyzing interviews and qualitative questionnaires that can be applied in other research fields.
In this paper, the focus is on sentiment analysis of web 3.0 enabled twitter dataset. The objective of the project is to explore various methods for performing sentiment analysis on Twitter datasets and implementing these methods on the web3.0 Twitter platform. The project involves collecting Twitter data through blockchain-based applications, preprocessing the data to remove noise, and applying machine learning models for sentiment analysis. Sentiment analysis is simply the extraction of thoughts, ideas, opinions, and emotions from sources such as text, speech, tweets, and databases using natural language processing (NLP) This process involves text segmentation mentally makes it "good," "bad," and "neutral" groups. In addition, it is known by other terms such as objective evaluation, mindfulness mining, and rating extraction. Web 3.0, also known as Web3, represents the third contemplated iteration of the World Wide Web, which aspires to establish a connected, transparent and intelligent online environment Based on the concept of decentralization, blockchain technology and the implementation of token-based economies. The main outcome of the project is to gain insights into the sentiment of users by analyzing WEB3.0 enabled Twitter data. By implementing sentiment analysis techniques on a WEB3.0 enabled Twitter dataset, the project aims to contribute to the field of sentiment analysis and showcase the effectiveness of using WEB3.0 enabled for data collection and analysis. The project aims to provide valuable insights for various methods of sentiment analysis for researchers. Keywords – Sentiment Analysis, Blockchain- Enabled, Twitter data, WEB 3.0, Machine Learning Models, User Sentiment, Research Contribution
This paper comprehensively examines Large Language Models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis, specifically focusing on financial markets and exploring the correlation between news sentiment and Bitcoin prices. We systematically categorize various LLMs used in financial sentiment analysis, highlighting their unique applications and features. We also investigate the methodologies for effective data collection and categorization, underscoring the need for diverse and comprehensive datasets. Our research features a case study investigating the correlation between news sentiment and Bitcoin prices, utilizing advanced sentiment analysis and financial analysis methods to demonstrate the practical application of LLMs. The findings reveal a modest but discernible correlation between news sentiment and Bitcoin price fluctuations, with historical news patterns showing a more substantial impact on Bitcoin’s longer-term price than immediate news events. This highlights LLMs’ potential in market trend prediction and informed investment decision-making.
M. Thamban Nair, Laila A. Abd-Elmegid, Mohamed I. Marie
Abstract Bitcoin (BTC) is one of the most important cryptocurrencies widely used in various financial and commercial transactions due to the fluctuations in the price of this currency. Recent research in large data analytics and natural language processing has resulted in the development of automated techniques for assessing the sentiment in online communities, which has emerged as a crucial platform for users to express their thoughts and comments. Twitter, one of the most well-known social media platforms, provides many tweets about the BTC cryptocurrency. With this knowledge, we can apply deep learning (DL) to use these data to predict BTC price variations. The researchers are interested in studying and analyzing the reasons contributing to the BTC price’s erratic movement by analyzing Twitter sentiment. The main problem in this article is that no standard model with high accuracy can be relied upon in analyzing textual emotions, as it represents one of the factors affecting the rise and fall in the price of cryptocurrencies. This article aims to classify the sentiments of an expression into positive, negative, or neutral emotions. The methods that have been used are word embedding FastText model in addition to different DL methods that deal with time series, one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CONV1D), long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs), recurrent neural networks, gated recurrent units, and a Bi-LSTM + CONV1D The main results revealed that the LSTM method, based on the DL technique, achieved the best results. The performance accuracy of the methods was 95.01, 95.95, 80.59, 95.82, and 95.67%, respectively. Thus, we conclude that the LSTM method achieved better results than other methods in analyzing the textual sentiment of BTC.
As cryptocurrencies become widely accepted due to technical improvements, reliable approaches to capture their future price movements of them become critical. This study mainly combines weighted sentiment analysis results from social media-related comments and financial news headlines with a stacked LSTM model to predict second-day Bitcoin price evolution. This study also compared our results and the results produced by MLP, RF, and SVM after feeding the sentiment analysis results.
Alexandru Costin Baroiu, Vlad Dıaconıța, Simona‐Vasilica Oprea
Cryptocurrencies have emerged as a popular investment vehicle, prompting numerous efforts to predict market trends and identify metrics that signal periods of volatility. One promising approach involves leveraging on-chain data, which is unique to cryptocurrencies. On-chain data, extracted directly from the blockchain, provides valuable information, such as the hash rate, total transactions, or the total number of addresses that hold a specified amount of cryptocurrency. Some studies have also explored the relationship between social media sentiment and Bitcoin, using data from platforms such as Twitter and Google Trends. However, the quality of Twitter sentiment analysis has been lackluster due to suboptimal extraction techniques. This research proposes a novel approach that combines a superior sentiment analysis technique with various on-chain metrics to improve predictions using a deep learning architecture based on long-short term memory (LSTM). The proposed model predicts outcomes for multiple time horizons, ranging from one day to 14 days, and outperforms the Martingale (random walk) approach by over 9%, as measured by the mean absolute percentage error metric, as well as recent results reported in literature. To the best of our knowledge, this study may be among the first to employ this combination of techniques to improve cryptocurrency market prediction.
This study explores the unique linguistic characteristics of bitcoin, which has significantly changed the financial world over the past few years. As the concept of bitcoin, cryptocurrency and the digital network behind them are not dealt with in LSP (Language for Specific Purposes) coursebooks yet, this small-scale research is intended to fill this niche. In order to see what terminology has to be acquired to be able to understand the basic issues about bitcoin, online sources dealing with this innovative technology and its regulatory systems have been used. The selected online texts are analysed by TextStat software, which is capable of making word counts and collocation frequency. The results show us the most common collocations with bitcoin, and blockchain processing within context, as well as the most frequently used words (e.g., cryptocurrency or exchange), which definitely need to be learned by students majoring in Business English. My aim with this research is that LSP teachers get a comprehensive picture of what terminology to teach to their student when dealing with the topic of cryptocurrencies. In addition, bitcoin-related vocabulary can be integrated into other subjects, such as economics, finance or technology, allowing students to explore the connections between different fields of knowledge. Keywords: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, blockchain, collocation, online