Mahsa Alian, Sunil P. Dhoubhadel, Venkatesh Balan
Cordyceps militaris is a high-value medicinal mushroom known for its bioactive compounds, including cordycepin and polysaccharides, which have driven demand for scalable and economically efficient cultivation systems. This study presents an integrated techno-economic analysis (TEA) of Cordyceps production in modular shipping-container units under two operational strategies: (i) a centralized system with on-site substrate and spawn preparation, and (ii) a decentralized system relying on commercially produced spawn at a single grow-only site. Red rice was used as the cultivation substrate at two production scales (50 and 100 lb/day) and evaluated using a five-year financial model that incorporated capital expenditure (CapEx), operating expenditure (OpEx), revenue, net cash flows, discounted cash flows, and net present value (NPV). The model assumed 80% debt and 20% equity financing, a WACC of 6.48%, and a 30% corporate tax rate. GHG emissions were quantified within a farm-gate boundary encompassing electricity consumption, CO 2 from mushroom respiration, and raw material transportation. Centralized systems required higher initial CapEx ($212,232 and $375,408) but benefited from substantially lower raw-material costs, resulting in superior operating margins and annual cash flows. In contrast, decentralized systems incurred two-to three-fold higher substrate-related costs, which constrained profitability despite lower upfront capital requirements. As a result, centralized systems achieved significantly higher NPVs and shorter payback. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the selling price and biological efficiency are the dominant drivers of NPV, while the electricity price has minimal influence across all scenarios. Centralized container-based production offers a more economically viable and scalable pathway for commercial Cordyceps cultivation.